ywing14 wrote:
Could you please point to me where in the Textev you're getting your 1200 SD(P)s from. No one is saying they won't finish what's in the process of being built. At least those that are far enough along in construction. But with the pasting Beowulf took there is no way to know if they've even be able to finish the interiors as planned as the ships were supposed to go there for completion.
In Chapter 7 of At All costs there is a discussion at a high-level meeting between the Queen and he senior uniformed officers. During the discussion they state that at the time(early 1919) they(The RMN) had 110 SD(P)’s in commission or under construction. It was noted that the GSN had 115 SD(P)’s in commission which is also presented in the fleet strength of 1920. The IAN had a strength of 42 SD(P)’s and 90 more under construction. The RMN’s estimate was that within 18 months they should have ~400 SD(P)s in active service between the RMN, IAN and GSN which leads me to believe that in 1919 the GSN had ~40 SD(P)s under construction. Between 1919 and the BoM there were no more than 30 SD(P)’s lost if I am not mistaking so that would indicate that during the BoM the Allied strength should be roughly 370 SD(P)’s. Assuming none of the lost up to that point(BoM) were IAN ships and the lost ships were spread equally between the GSN and RMN the Fleet strength should be somewhere in the neighbourhood of:
RMN: 95 SD(P)’s
GSN: 140 SD(P)’s
IAN: 130 SD(P)’s
In the BoM The Manticore Alliance lost 97 SD(P)’s. That is 48 SD(P)’s from Home Fleet and 49 SD(P)s from 3rd Fleet and one Squadron(6 SD(P)) from 8th Fleet.
So let us assume that the losses in Home Fleet and Third Fleet were equally distributed between the three allied navies, the end result is that after the BoM there should be:
RMN: 63 SD(P)’s
GSN: 110 SD(P)’s
IAN : 90 SD(P)’s
Assuming that the RMN and GSN managed to triple their SD(P) ships under construction between the two of them they should have been able to produce another 150 SD(P)’s before Oyster Bay destroyed their infrastructure. If we split their new construction equally then the strength would be:
RMN: 138 SD(P)’s
GSN: 185 SD(P)’s
During OB we can safely assume that roughly 15% of those SD(P)’s were in for refit this would mean that post OB the RMN and GSN should have:
RMN: 118 SD(P)’s
GSN: 156 SD(P)’s
So The grand total for the GSN/RMN contribution to the GA would be 274 SD(P)’s. The distribution might be a little different if the GSN gave some new construction to the RMN to bolster their number and it might be off by 24 SD(P)’s since most of the RMN/GSN SD(P)s were less than 10 years old.
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The RHN Started the war with ~310 SD(P)’s, if those SD(P)’s were all designed and build in Bolthole between 1915 and 1919 then it would lead me to believe that Bolthole has the ability to build somewhere in the neighbourhood of 200-300 SD(P)’s at a time. If once the SD(P)’s are completed the RHN immediately lays down another ship Bolthole should have somewhere in the neighbourhood of 200-300 SD(P)’s under construction in 1919. The RMN estimated 400-450 SD(P)’s in bolthole alone but let’s use my numbers since they are much smaller. Then there are the rest of the RHN’s yards which would double the Bolthole ships under construction. RMN Estimate =800-900 for all ships under construction in 1919. Again let’s use a lower estimate and put it at 650-700 SD(P)’s under contraction by the RHN. That means that by OB the RHN should have using my numbers somewhere in the neighbourhood of 950 SD(P)’s.
On the other hand in Chapter 54 of At all costs the discussion for Beatrice shed some light on the RHN’s active strength before the BoM. They had 330 SD(P)’s slated for Beatrice and 620 SD(P)’s remaining behind because 100 would be working up, Haven and Bolthole need to be protected heavily just incase and this was before the battle of Love cost the RHN another 32 SD(P)s.
So with my numbers and theirs the RHN should have roughly 580-590 SD(P) in service assuming that every SD(P) that participated in the BoM was destroyed or damaged beyond repair even those captured.
So at the Point of the creation of the GA the fleet strength should be:
RHN: 580 SD(P)’s
GSN: 156 SD(P)’s
RMN: 118 SD(P)’s
For a total strength of 854 SD(P)’s between the 3 allied navies. Manticore and Grayson would obviously have no ships under construction after OB but haven should still have 400-800 SD(P)’s under construction depending on their finances.
When added up on the low end we are looking at 1200 SD(P)’s under construction or already in service on the high end we are looking at 1600 SD(P)’s under construction and in active service between the three of them. Between Bolthole and the rest of Haven’s yards they should have 600 SD(P)’s under construction if we took the middle of the two extremes. So the GA’s active wall should be 854 SD(P)’s and 600 under construction(RHN SD(P)’s).
As for the plan to build ships in Bolthole and Ship them to Beowulf for completion I doubt that anything was actually done. There was roughly 8 months between the decision to start and the end of the UH which means that in that time they would have had to redesign the SD(P)’s to be able to accommodate split construction and it is likely few were even laid down and guaranteed none were completed in the months.
You keep on bringing up the amount of people killed as your justification for this ridiculous fleet size.
Because in real life that would be the number one consideration. And which part of my suggestion is ridiculous? The one that the 60+ Systems of the SEM need more than 118 SD(P)’s to protect them? It would be ridiculous if I was suggesting the RMN maintain 1200 SD(P)’s but I am not, I am suggesting they maintain 300-400 SD(P)’s, enough for protection of their territory and meet their commitment to the GA and any systems they commit to defend.
However, all you have to do is look at the way in which this was brought about in order to realize that you don't need a huge fleet. Yawata Strike (small number of vessels) and Beowulf (bombs) any intelligence analyst is going to realize that who ever did this chose this manner because they lack the military might to carry out a conventional attack.
Or any Intelligence agency might come to the conclusion that everything done to get a war between the League and Manticore was done so as to paint Manticore as insane. It would hardly help the cause of the MA if they openly came out with a big fleet for the GA to have irrefutable proof.
Maybe the MA is operating with few naval assets of their own, or maybe they have a significant fleet of their own but are conducting their campaign in such a fashion for reasons no-one but the MA might understand.
It makes more sense to figure out a way to detect the spider drive prior to completing any more SD(P)s for the simple fact that the GA may have to redesign their ships in order to fight the spider drive equipped vessels.
And it might be easier to start over than redesigning ships that are already near completion.
The whole point is for the GA to not turn into the SLN which had several thousand worthless SDs that took up space.
And they wont, because they have a genuine reason to have those 1200+ SD(P)’s. They have 160-200 systems of their own to protect and a 20 year war as experience for how many ships they need to provide that protection. The RhNs SD(P)’s are still the best in the known galaxy excluding the RMN/GSN/IAN ships all of which happen to belong to the same alliance.
They would be better served to take the research they acquired from Gerrymeade, and there now combined staffs and see what kind of brand new ship they can design.
You are assuming anything that comes from captured research is going to be worth much. I doubt that the MA gave the SLN all of their dirty little secrets.
When they were at war with the SLN it made sense to go with what they had. But now that there is a strategic breather there isn't the same urgency to build the ships. Is there an urgency to find the MAlign? Yes, but to keep building SD(P)s no.
How is there any breather? The GA does not know where the MA is, or what they are planning. They don’t know their final goal and they don’t know all or even any of the actual players involved. They don’t know the MA’s strength or what they have under construction… so how could they have a breather of any sort? The MA might have seen an opportunity and taken it before they were ready, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a few hundred SD(P)’s of their own ready to pounce on the GA.
Where are you talking about all this money coming from? While they say the SEM's debt will be manageable it still indicated it would take them 20-30 years to pay it off. What happened in Manticore and Beowulf clearly indicates it doesn't matter how much you spend on defense bad things can still happen.
Manticore can start to bring their merchant ships back into the League since the Leagues members would be more than willing to welcome them back or take even more financial losses. That should go a long way to bring money into the GA’s coffers. But then there are likely a number of Core and Shell worlds that would willingly invest in the GA’s economy including one particular system that was saved from experiencing complete industrial destruction and massive loss of life by 5 RMN warships at the cost of 4 of those warships.
And as for the part about defence… you are 100% right. Problem is that the lower priority you place on defence the easier it is for bad things to happen.
There could have been 30,000 SD(P)s in Beowulf.
What about next time? What if the MA build 250 SD(P)s of their own and decided to attack the GA? You are looking at this from the point of view of what the enemy has done to this point. Problem is if you close the door on those kinds of attacks they might just decide to go toe to toe with your fleet.
Just because you think the enemy is attacking in ways that indicate that they are weak does not make them weak. They might be operating with a different set of criteria or beliefs. Or they might have reasons that make them behave in a certain fashion that you not knowing those reasons will find it illogical.
What you do for the sake of your people and economy is stand down your reservists and allow them to return to their civilian jobs. Return the fleet to more of a condition 2 status.
and if it comes out that you were infant wrong? What happens if the MA turns out to have 250 SD(P)s of their own? The RMN has a grand total of 120 SD(P)’s to cover Manticore, Trevors Star, Talbott and Silesia plus any other commitments they have. Not to mention having a detachment with the Grand Fleet incase the enemy base is discovered. When the RMN deploys 50 SD(P)s at home, 50 SD(P)s to the Grand Fleet and 20 SD(P)s to cover the other 55 systems of the Empire how well would that work out.
Of course the characters in the GA and MAlign can make assumptions.... How else do you have a story if the characters in the books don't make any assumptions... But you've missed the textev where they've all discussed the MAlign's motives and while they don't know everything they have identified that the MAlign has a small military force and likely has a place similar to bolthole out there. They also know someone was providing the SLN with advanced weapons and their suspicions clearly indicated they didn't think it was techndyne. What me and basically everyone are saying is that the characters in the book are making rational decisions based on the information they have at hand. You want them to make irrational decisions that are based on facts.
The decision I am advocating for is based on their 20 years of experience and having absolutely NO hard information on the abilities of the enemy. They can’t assume that the MA is a small military organization if the GA just found out about them. If the MA is good enough to have no leaks during the 600 years of it’s existence I wouldn’t put too much credibility on my assumptions.
When push comes to shove I assume the worst and prepare for it to the best of my abilities. Now if the GA were to have 1,200 SD(P)’s for 200 systems that is in no way overkill.
If you take those 1,200 SD(P)s under construction or in active service and split them amongst the allies that would provide the best protection they can have at the moment and still allow them the ability to rebuild.
If the RHN maintain 400-600 SD(P)’s since they have the most territory and industry to protect, the RMN maintain 350 SD(P)’s since they have a far flung empire and commitments that would extend to quite a few verge, protectorates and core/shell systems and Beowulf, Grayson and other smaller allies maintain the other 350 SD(P)’s between them I don’t think anyone would be overly burdened and there would be sufficient ships to provide defence of the GA’s territory and still allow for a significant fleet to attack the MA when they find it.
Taking 118 SD(P)’s an demobilizing a bunch of them while there is an enemy of unknown strength, location industrial/economic capabilities or size out there willing to kill civilians by the tens of millions at a time would be the hight of criminal behaviour for any government.
What you are suggesting is that Manticore should demobilize and give the MA a chance to beat them in a straight up fight as well as those sneaky actions they have done to this point.