SPOILER end of the MA

I have to agree with the side that's talking about more ships, but fewer SD(p)'s. Elizabeth has said that she will need to downsize the RMN. Unfortunately, and the point has been made already, the RMN has a lot of systems to cover. A lot of commerce to protect. Commerce is the life blood of the SEM we are told over and over again. Lacoon II has shut down and disrupted plenty of that commerce, even if relations with the RHN have opened up new trade avenues.

A lot of new, small, ships will be needed to patrol the Talbott cluster, to keep the Sillies in line and in general be available to show the flag in former Verge or Shell territory. Suspend all new SD(p) construction, sure. Mothball a bunch of them, but you still have to keep building up and expanding the smaller ships.

Weird Harold wrote:
They were in a shooting war against the RHN who had SDPs and CLACs. They are NOT now in a war with a peer opponent, and they have more commitments that can be handled by Cruisers and Destroyer squadrons.

Yep, they can handle most things with cruisers and destroyers...until they can't and then its too late. As far as they know the MA is a technological peer, and for all intents and purposes they will become a peer in the very near future as they are immune from attack and they are very motivated to do so. By the time that they are a confirmed technological peer it would be far too late to start thinking about mobilizing mothballed ships.

Manticore, at least, has to end the wartime taxes and cope with rebuilding their infrastructure; they can't afford the numbers of SD(p)s they would need to meet their commitments -- especially since SD(P)s aren't the best ships for the jobs.

And what jobs would those be? Are you saying that in 5 or 10 years the MA will not have some very dangerous naval assets? If they spend the next 5 or 10 years researching, developing and building ships, the first thing the GA would know about those ships is in Combat and it would be short war.

n7axw wrote:I don't think it would be wise to mothball SD (P)s. But given that between them, Manticore, Haven, and Grayson probably have a minimum of a thousand of the things, I really don't see a need to keep building them in perpetuity either. This would be an appropriate time to shift the emphasis to lighter units, bc and down.

I am not talking about building more, what it seemed to me was that the direction of the last few pages was to start demobilizing their fleets to peacetime levels. Haven cannot maintain 1,000 to 1,200 SD(P)s all on their own so they will cut it down to 400-500, the others should go to other GA members rather than being mothballed and having the alliance reduced to 600 SD(P)s to protect 150-160 systems against an unknown enemy.

Speaking of the Lenny Dets, I recall a trip Albrecht made to Darius and we are told that he saw about 20 Lenny Dets in various stages of construction.. We are not told that he saw everything. So that is still open to speculation unless we have more info on that in UH which I have not read.

Don

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I might be wrong but we didn't get an inside look at their capabilities either.

ywing14 wrote:Sigs I'm sorry but your answers are getting too Star Trek/Betty Sue for me.

Your statements all imply unlimited resources and no monetary issues. Manticore and really the RHN have been at war a long time. They are going to have to take a breather as a society. The MAlign's plan isn't military domination. It's societal change towards genetic manipulation. Are there military components to their plan? Yes, but it isn't the primary part. The Rembrant Factor may still work. It can still become a shining beacon. But if the Malign is going to act as you say and invade the entire GA or attack 20 planets then the GA should probably give up now.

Haven already has the ~1,200 in service or nearly complete. I am not talking about build thousands of more SD(P)'s I am talking about completing the once already in the yards and distribute them fairly so that one navy doesn't end up doing a disproportionate part of the fighting. Expecting Haven to man 1,200 SD(P) while Manticore mans only 150 SD(P)s is unrealistic, Expecting Haven to man 500 SD(P)'s and Manticore Manning 300-400 SD(P)s as well is more realistic. The ships will be in service, both nations can defend themselves and have the ships to launch an attack on the MA if they find their location.

The MAlign's plan isn't military domination. It's societal change towards genetic manipulation. Are there military components to their plan? Yes, but it isn't the primary part. The Rembrant Factor may still work. It can still become a shining beacon. But if the Malign is going to act as you say and invade the entire GA or attack 20 planets then the GA should probably give up now.

You are looking at this from the point of view of the reader not the characters. The characters have a hell of a lot less information about the MA than the reader. They don't know what the MA expects to accomplish or how it plan to accomplish it. All they know is that the SKM and the PRH were maneuvered into a shooting war by a third party which fed the flames and subsequently killed 10,000,000 or more people from the Manticore Alliance in a surprise attack trying to engineer a Havenite victory. They also know that this third party engineered the war between Manticore/GA and the League during which they are responsible for murdering 50+ million people.


If it were me my first priority would be having sufficient forces to defend my people, territory and allies and then and only then worry about building infrastructure.

Haven has the infrastructure to support and maintain their construction so those ships should become the backbone of the alliance fleets.

There are a lot of financial resources in private hands in Manticore, if OB and the attacks on Beowulf don't convince the people that investment in defence is necessary then they deserve to perish.

The GA is still going to be searching for the MAlign, the GA is still going to be pushing scientific research, the GA will likely still be building ships especially Rolands, Saganami Cs, and Nikes. Which can only occur after they rebuild their shipyard which I believe is still a year away. But it really doesn't make a ton of sense to build SD(P)s until they figure out a way to detect the spider drive. Otherwise they're just wasting hulls as their ships will be swatted with impunity.

I am not talking about building SD(P)'s, I am talking about using the SD(P)s already in service or nearly complete to maintain a fleet. Instead of taking the 1,200 SD(P)s, mothballing half or more and spreading the rest around the GA I think the GA should put al of them to good use.Between Haven, Manticore, Beowulf, Hypatia, Grayson and whatever core or shell world align with them they should have enough manpower and will power to man those ships.

Furthermore, the GA is ahead of the Malign in many areas of research just as the Malign is ahead in a few others. Nothing says the Malign is going to magically catch up in those areas. What the GA needs to do now is introduce tree cats to as many individuals with in their military structure as they can to weed out agents. Tree cats will make it virtually impossible to insert agents into the GA they way they previously have.

Again, missing the point. The GA does NOT know how far ahead or behind the MA really is. The only technology they have been introduced to was the one that was killing them.

Focusing on the economy, the new planets in the quadrant, and stabilizing the SL/whatever successor states are created is in the best interests of the GA's long term goals. Do I think 10-20 years from know that the SEM could support a much more robust Navy than it previously had. Sure do, but at this moment it shouldn't be the number 1 priority.

The GA does NOT KNOW what the MA wants, plans to do, or has already set in motion. They don't know where the MA base of operation is, their technological level, financial assets, military strength or industrial power. What you as the reader know and what the character in the book knows are two very different things. The GA as a whole cannot make assumptions on what the MA may or may not do and most definitely should not base their decisions on those assumption.

Fireflair wrote:I have to agree with the side that's talking about more ships, but fewer SD(p)'s. Elizabeth has said that she will need to downsize the RMN. Unfortunately, and the point has been made already, the RMN has a lot of systems to cover. A lot of commerce to protect. Commerce is the life blood of the SEM we are told over and over again. Lacoon II has shut down and disrupted plenty of that commerce, even if relations with the RHN have opened up new trade avenues.

A lot of new, small, ships will be needed to patrol the Talbott cluster, to keep the Sillies in line and in general be available to show the flag in former Verge or Shell territory. Suspend all new SD(p) construction, sure. Mothball a bunch of them, but you still have to keep building up and expanding the smaller ships.

Funny how everyone points to High Ridge and Janacek and calls them out on their actions but basically support doing the exact same thing but with far less justification.

Sigs wrote:And what jobs would those be? Are you saying that in 5 or 10 years the MA will not have some very dangerous naval assets?

No I'm saying that for the next 5 or 10 years, the GA is going to need smaller ships for traditional Cruiser duties. In 5 or 10 years, the GA's many cruisers are going to be a match for anything built to counter SD(p)s.

The MAlign will have some very dangerous naval assets.

The GA already has some very dangerous naval assets in addition to the invincible SD(p)s. In 5-10 years, they should have some very, very dangerous naval assets -- as well as several squadrons of aging SD(p)s.

The main advantage of pod based designs is that it is stupidly simple to upgrade their armament. Then again, the Marksman-plus-ammo ship concept means a cruiser can have the firepower of an SD(p) or two without the investment in a big ship.

A ship like the Charles Ward paired with Nike or Sag-C -- or even a division of Rolands -- can do almost everything an SD(p) can. And do it with the latest in pod based armament and countermeasures.

Sigs wrote:Funny how everyone points to High Ridge and Janacek and calls them out on their actions but basically support doing the exact same thing but with far less justification.

A formal peace treaty and alliance with Haven and a peace treaty with the SL == less justification? What on earth are you smoking?

Sigs wrote:I am not talking about building SD(P)'s, I am talking about using the SD(P)s already in service or nearly complete to maintain a fleet. Instead of taking the 1,200 SD(P)s, mothballing half or more and spreading the rest around the GA I think the GA should put al of them to good use.Between Haven, Manticore, Beowulf, Hypatia, Grayson and whatever core or shell world align with them they should have enough manpower and will power to man those ships.

You do realize that only the RMN's Eighth Fleet, the GSN, and the Andermani have KHII and full Apollo capability? Every other SD(P) in the Honorverse is obsolete and unsurvivable against anything that can stand up to Apollo?

The initial plan for the GA was for Bolthole to build RHN standard SD(p) hulls with mounting space for KHII and then Beowulf to install KHII and upgraded electronics. That plan was in place because SDs without Apollo are just targets in a stand-up battle.

SDs and forts are also just targets for known MAlign tech.

One of several things la duo démoniaque in Bolthole will be doing is miniaturizing current tech. Odds are that when next we visit the Honorverse we will see a Keyhole II Nike and the new CAs having Keyhole capability. Perhaps in the CAs there will be an internal spinal pod dispenser. That way each CA has an organic big first punch that won't degrade as it would mounted on the hull.

Lord knows what they'll think of, but those ideas will be deadly.

Sigs wrote:

ywing14 wrote:Sigs I'm sorry but your answers are getting too Star Trek/Betty Sue for me.

Your statements all imply unlimited resources and no monetary issues. Manticore and really the RHN have been at war a long time. They are going to have to take a breather as a society. The MAlign's plan isn't military domination. It's societal change towards genetic manipulation. Are there military components to their plan? Yes, but it isn't the primary part. The Rembrant Factor may still work. It can still become a shining beacon. But if the Malign is going to act as you say and invade the entire GA or attack 20 planets then the GA should probably give up now.

Haven already has the ~1,200 in service or nearly complete. I am not talking about build thousands of more SD(P)'s I am talking about completing the once already in the yards and distribute them fairly so that one navy doesn't end up doing a disproportionate part of the fighting. Expecting Haven to man 1,200 SD(P) while Manticore mans only 150 SD(P)s is unrealistic, Expecting Haven to man 500 SD(P)'s and Manticore Manning 300-400 SD(P)s as well is more realistic. The ships will be in service, both nations can defend themselves and have the ships to launch an attack on the MA if they find their location.

The MAlign's plan isn't military domination. It's societal change towards genetic manipulation. Are there military components to their plan? Yes, but it isn't the primary part. The Rembrant Factor may still work. It can still become a shining beacon. But if the Malign is going to act as you say and invade the entire GA or attack 20 planets then the GA should probably give up now.

You are looking at this from the point of view of the reader not the characters. The characters have a hell of a lot less information about the MA than the reader. They don't know what the MA expects to accomplish or how it plan to accomplish it. All they know is that the SKM and the PRH were maneuvered into a shooting war by a third party which fed the flames and subsequently killed 10,000,000 or more people from the Manticore Alliance in a surprise attack trying to engineer a Havenite victory. They also know that this third party engineered the war between Manticore/GA and the League during which they are responsible for murdering 50+ million people.


If it were me my first priority would be having sufficient forces to defend my people, territory and allies and then and only then worry about building infrastructure.

Haven has the infrastructure to support and maintain their construction so those ships should become the backbone of the alliance fleets.

There are a lot of financial resources in private hands in Manticore, if OB and the attacks on Beowulf don't convince the people that investment in defence is necessary then they deserve to perish.

The GA is still going to be searching for the MAlign, the GA is still going to be pushing scientific research, the GA will likely still be building ships especially Rolands, Saganami Cs, and Nikes. Which can only occur after they rebuild their shipyard which I believe is still a year away. But it really doesn't make a ton of sense to build SD(P)s until they figure out a way to detect the spider drive. Otherwise they're just wasting hulls as their ships will be swatted with impunity.

I am not talking about building SD(P)'s, I am talking about using the SD(P)s already in service or nearly complete to maintain a fleet. Instead of taking the 1,200 SD(P)s, mothballing half or more and spreading the rest around the GA I think the GA should put al of them to good use.Between Haven, Manticore, Beowulf, Hypatia, Grayson and whatever core or shell world align with them they should have enough manpower and will power to man those ships.

Furthermore, the GA is ahead of the Malign in many areas of research just as the Malign is ahead in a few others. Nothing says the Malign is going to magically catch up in those areas. What the GA needs to do now is introduce tree cats to as many individuals with in their military structure as they can to weed out agents. Tree cats will make it virtually impossible to insert agents into the GA they way they previously have.

Again, missing the point. The GA does NOT know how far ahead or behind the MA really is. The only technology they have been introduced to was the one that was killing them.

Focusing on the economy, the new planets in the quadrant, and stabilizing the SL/whatever successor states are created is in the best interests of the GA's long term goals. Do I think 10-20 years from know that the SEM could support a much more robust Navy than it previously had. Sure do, but at this moment it shouldn't be the number 1 priority.

The GA does NOT KNOW what the MA wants, plans to do, or has already set in motion. They don't know where the MA base of operation is, their technological level, financial assets, military strength or industrial power. What you as the reader know and what the character in the book knows are two very different things. The GA as a whole cannot make assumptions on what the MA may or may not do and most definitely should not base their decisions on those assumption.

Could you please point to me where in the Textev you're getting your 1200 SD(P)s from. No one is saying they won't finish what's in the process of being built. At least those that are far enough along in construction. But with the pasting Beowulf took there is no way to know if they've even be able to finish the interiors as planned as the ships were supposed to go there for completion.

You keep on bringing up the amount of people killed as your justification for this ridiculous fleet size. However, all you have to do is look at the way in which this was brought about in order to realize that you don't need a huge fleet. Yawata Strike (small number of vessels) and Beowulf (bombs) any intelligence analyst is going to realize that who ever did this chose this manner because they lack the military might to carry out a conventional attack. It makes more sense to figure out a way to detect the spider drive prior to completing any more SD(P)s for the simple fact that the GA may have to redesign their ships in order to fight the spider drive equipped vessels. The whole point is for the GA to not turn into the SLN which had several thousand worthless SDs that took up space. They would be better served to take the research they acquired from Gerrymeade, and there now combined staffs and see what kind of brand new ship they can design. When they were at war with the SLN it made sense to go with what they had. But now that there is a strategic breather there isn't the same urgency to build the ships. Is there an urgency to find the MAlign? Yes, but to keep building SD(P)s no.

Where are you talking about all this money coming from? While they say the SEM's debt will be manageable it still indicated it would take them 20-30 years to pay it off. What happened in Manticore and Beowulf clearly indicates it doesn't matter how much you spend on defense bad things can still happen. There could have been 30,000 SD(P)s in Beowulf. The bombs still would have blown up and killed 40 million people. What happened will just encourage people to diversify their investments so they don't lose everything if something bad happens.

What you do for the sake of your people and economy is stand down your reservists and allow them to return to their civilian jobs. Return the fleet to more of a condition 2 status.

Of course the characters in the GA and MAlign can make assumptions.... How else do you have a story if the characters in the books don't make any assumptions... But you've missed the textev where they've all discussed the MAlign's motives and while they don't know everything they have identified that the MAlign has a small military force and likely has a place similar to bolthole out there. They also know someone was providing the SLN with advanced weapons and their suspicions clearly indicated they didn't think it was techndyne. What me and basically everyone are saying is that the characters in the book are making rational decisions based on the information they have at hand. You want them to make irrational decisions that are based on facts.

1) I think there is a misreading of what QEIII means by downsizing. She is not referring to what Janacek did which was criminally stupid. I agree with everything you are saying about the threat and all the unknowns, and how criminally stupid it would be to ignore the threat.

However
what many of are seeing, or comprehending from the text,(1) is that contrary to the Mandarins, Both the Manticoran Government and the Haven Government are accountable to the population. (2) The population hence the voters, hence the people the government is answerable to are sending a strong message:"you won the stupid war, both of them actally, we've been paying for your war for 20+ years. It's time to not be building a huge flet to fight the wars you won." (3) Within the confines of the political realities they are taking every step possible to not be criminally stupid. They are maintaining their search for the MA, they unlike Janacek are maintaining full funding for Bolthole and the Demonic Duo, they are trying to find ways to keepas much of their fleets as. While, yes they are downsizing, unlike Janacek. it is from outside political necessity, not insider poitical maneuvering.

Yes, granted keeping as much as is possible, considering the mood of the voters to whom they are ultimately responsible. And the "shut down the navy' voices are in the great minority. Going as fast and as furious as they have been may not be enough if they do not find a way to detect those spider drives. They are still having to bow to the pressure from the electorate. I do not see them abdicating their responsibilities to defend their territories, abandon their naval traditions, and all the other things you are so terrified they may be doing.