SPOILER end of the MA

kzt wrote:The direct attack on Manticore was the key failure. It was a clear signal that there was someone out there who really wasn't very fond of them, an needed to be stopped. But not sufficiently effective to accomplish it's goal and not followed up.

If, for example, the MA had once a month sent a couple of graser torps into the system to find and blow up something (an SD in orbit, a freighter, a minining platform, a new fab facility under construction, a junction support platform, it really doesn't matter what) the RMN wouldn't be carrying out operations against them. And heck, they could have dropped them off at the same operation but on different trajectories.

Or you do it against 3rd fleet and at Talbott. Things just mysteriously explode.

If they could force he RMN to burn out their nodes by running the wedge, sidewalls and bow/stern walls every moment the fact that they don't have a source of spares would bite.

The attack on Beowulf was similar. It's obvious they they both knew exactly where the critical manufacturing nodes were and had easy ability to blow them up, which would have been catastrophic for the GA. Instead they blew up the FC nodes and committed an atrocity.

If wishes was fishes? The MAlign had the strategy they had. they did not have some other one. The strike against Manicore, the withdrawal from Mesa with a much less Grand Flourish, the terror bombing of Beowulf were all part of the master strategy. There is no point arguing what it shoulda, coulda, woulda been. .

Blowing up production nodes was their target. That they underestimated the GA's learning curve and ability to work up a defense strategy is just what happens when your battle plan meets the enemy.

Nor could they predict Operation Beatrice mostly destroying MAnticore's fleet. From the perspective of The Strategy, destroying Manticore's military factories is a legitimate military target, and the golden goose of Beatrice was too much to resist, and Oyster Bay was a success by any measure.

Who knew or could predict the survival of Zilwicki and Cachat with or without Simoes and the information Jack McBride provided? Who could predict Pritchard would not return to defeat her old foe? Who knew the SLN Wall of battle was just so totally outclassed and outgunned, not by the RMN, but by the RHN? Yes they expected Filareta to get clobbered, they did not expect it to be such a seal hunt.

I think a lot of the discussion is centered around our various percepions of "downsizing the navy"

“Well, I wasn’t going to cram it at you,” Elizabeth told her. “But one of the most essential elements will be keeping our military establishments on the same page. Especially with the Alignment still out there somewhere.”

All trace of amusement faded from her eyes for a moment, and her nostrils flared.

“I know the hunt for the rest of your ‘onion’ is really only just getting started, Honor, but I have to tell you, I’m not optimistic about our dragging them back into the open until they’re damned well ready to come back out into the open.”

Chapter 8 wrote:“I’m not giving up hope, but I’m afraid that’s what the odds favor,” Honor agreed.

“Which is why we have to maintain a strong military posture. I don’t see any way in hell we could maintain the fleet strength we have right now. There are megatons of totally valid domestic reasons to cut naval funding now that the League’s not a threat and we’ve pretty much established we can kick anybody’s ass,” Elizabeth said bluntly. “Manticore has enough of a naval tradition, and enough interstellar commitments, that maintaining a powerful fleet won’t be that great a challenge. Maintaining one as powerful as the one we have now is likely to be impossible, though.

And a bit before that about not being complacent. They are not demilitarizing? They are just not going to maintain an active fleet of [however many Sd(p)s theycurrently have commissioned" Whether it bites them militarily in 20or 100 years does not negate the political realities they face today. Their government is accountable to the voters and the voters are paying taxes to support the war effort they know about. Since they are not actively shooting, the voters will not support a wartime government.

pappilon wrote:Just for clarity for those lurkers who may be a tad confused. Manticore's investment in the league Is not Herr Hauptmann or Hamish Alexander but the Royal Manticoran Exchequer investing Government money in the Solaran League.

Not sure we care about SL corporations failing. A lot depends on the Chamber of Stars, specifically how soon they churn out a functional constitution; how many stars remain in the league, and how soon the new government can be installed. The sooner everything politically and economically return to pre-war status, the sooner Manticore's economy recovers.

Granted, Technodyne and other military contractors may struggle until they start selling to verge systems. And does the SEM really want a lot of Solly investment? Most of the rebuilding of infrastructure is a matter of time and they are very much ahead of th game. With no war to fight there is less pressure on the budget for strict military investment.

Rebuilding planetary education systems need a good dose of cash to hire and relocate educators, and further the professional standards of those you already have, but again throwing more than enough money into it doesn't make things move faster.

The Sol transtellars will now have to compete more for resources in The Verge which will still be their field for growth. Conversely, Manticoran shipping companies will have to do a lot of renegotiating to get back into the league's carrying trade again after Lacoon 1.

I was actually including private investments because they could and would be used to fund public infrastructure improvements. Issues bonds to the Quadrant governemnt or individual star systems which have some sort of tax advantage similar to municipal bonds in the US. Issuing such bonds to build schools, hospitals, prolong clinics, adult vocational training centers and other similar sorts of public projects. All of these projects will improve tax revenues down the road much greater than the lost tax revenue of financing them.

I can also see SEM firms encouraged to send employees to facilitate in the education projects in the Quadrant. The salaries of these loaned employees can also have tax advantages. Once the education rpograms hit full stride, the need for those loaned employees will diminsih. Given the serious dislocation the SEM economy is suffering, there may well be many employees caught in transition. Why ignore those resources?

There was a Manticore investment corporation in the League whose funds were very useful at the start of the colony and was used to provide incentives to new arrivals after the plague years. I wonder if that fund still exists and how large it would be.

Don

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n7axw wrote:There was a Manticore investment corporation in the League whose funds were very useful at the start of the colony and was used to provide incentives to new arrivals after the plague years. I wonder if that fund still exists and how large it would be.

There was this little war...

kzt wrote:

Sigs wrote:As for manpower? Manticore has the manpower in Talbott and Silesia, what they didn't have was the time to bring potential recruits to the standard of the RMN. For the moment the SEM is at peace and it would benefit them to build up their manpower now rather than wait for the next emergency. The MA might show up again 20 years down the line and it would be a little too late to be rebuilding the RMN from scratch in the middle of a war...again.

So you advocate that instead of investing in education and resource/industrial development it's better to spend what limited funds and devote your educated personnel to building and maintaining a huge military? Because there is not unlimited money or people and there is close to an unlimited demand on them. So choices need to be made.

If the choice is between quickly bringing the education level up and quickly industrializing the new member systems of the Empire or Protecting them I would always advocate for protection and security when the situation is as they are facing right now. building up your infrastructure and Education level is all fine and a noble cause but what happens when someone comes in to destroy or capture the industry and educated population and you have nothing to stop them with? As members of the Empire every system has the right to demand protection...adequate protection. Can't have a Home Fleet of 60 SD(P)'s if that represents 60% of your SD(P)'s because both Talbott and Silesia will be demanding SD(P)'s for protection and with good cause.


Now that the war with the League is effectively over the Merchant Marine can go back and start rebuilding revenue streams since the League would be happy to see their economy recover as well.

PeterZ wrote:

pappilon wrote:Just for clarity for those lurkers who may be a tad confused. Manticore's investment in the league Is not Herr Hauptmann or Hamish Alexander but the Royal Manticoran Exchequer investing Government money in the Solaran League.

Not sure we care about SL corporations failing. A lot depends on the Chamber of Stars, specifically how soon they churn out a functional constitution; how many stars remain in the league, and how soon the new government can be installed. The sooner everything politically and economically return to pre-war status, the sooner Manticore's economy recovers.

Granted, Technodyne and other military contractors may struggle until they start selling to verge systems. And does the SEM really want a lot of Solly investment? Most of the rebuilding of infrastructure is a matter of time and they are very much ahead of th game. With no war to fight there is less pressure on the budget for strict military investment.

Rebuilding planetary education systems need a good dose of cash to hire and relocate educators, and further the professional standards of those you already have, but again throwing more than enough money into it doesn't make things move faster.

The Sol transtellars will now have to compete more for resources in The Verge which will still be their field for growth. Conversely, Manticoran shipping companies will have to do a lot of renegotiating to get back into the league's carrying trade again after Lacoon 1.

I was actually including private investments because they could and would be used to fund public infrastructure improvements. Issues bonds to the Quadrant governemnt or individual star systems which have some sort of tax advantage similar to municipal bonds in the US. Issuing such bonds to build schools, hospitals, prolong clinics, adult vocational training centers and other similar sorts of public projects. All of these projects will improve tax revenues down the road much greater than the lost tax revenue of financing them.

I can also see SEM firms encouraged to send employees to facilitate in the education projects in the Quadrant. The salaries of these loaned employees can also have tax advantages. Once the education rpograms hit full stride, the need for those loaned employees will diminsih. Given the serious dislocation the SEM economy is suffering, there may well be many employees caught in transition. Why ignore those resources?

I do not disagree, there was that flurry of - call it the capital fair- in the Talbott Quadrant which was pretext for New Tuscany. I'm sure that is continuing apace. And as the wartime budget unwinds and Lacoon is reversed, there will be even more capital available.

I am also assuming that whatever becomes of Silesia's python lump, some similar program will be instituted. But as others have pointed out, neither skilled manpower or capital is infinite, only time. And it will take lots of time.

And those government investments, much to the surprise of everyone on Manticore, were never seized, not sure how much of a wartime hit those investments have taken.

pappilon wrote:
Not sure we care about SL corporations failing. A lot depends on the Chamber of Stars, specifically how soon they churn out a functional constitution; how many stars remain in the league, and how soon the new government can be installed. The sooner everything politically and economically return to pre-war status, the sooner Manticore's economy recovers.

We care because that is a source of finances, why not use the people who are at least partially responsible for the problems in the galaxy to start fixing them? A lot if not all of the corporations will be kicked out of the verge and protectorates thus their revenue streams would be significantly cut. If they were offered a way to remain afloat and use essentially League funds to build up the GA's infrastructure and people from League systems to work on bringing the education level up why not?

Rebuilding planetary education systems need a good dose of cash to hire and relocate educators, and further the professional standards of those you already have, but again throwing more than enough money into it doesn't make things move faster.

It does if those corporations bring educators from the League to help bring up the standard. It's not just money that they will be investing, it will be specialists an equipment.

The Sol transtellars will now have to compete more for resources in The Verge which will still be their field for growth. Conversely, Manticoran shipping companies will have to do a lot of renegotiating to get back into the league's carrying trade again after Lacoon 1.

Or just show up. After all manufacturers in the League are as desperate if not more so than the GA.

Sigs wrote:If the choice is between quickly bringing the education level up and quickly industrializing the new member systems of the Empire or Protecting them I would always advocate for protection and security when the situation is as they are facing right now. building up your infrastructure and Education level is all fine and a noble cause but what happens when someone comes in to destroy or capture the industry and educated population and you have nothing to stop them with? As members of the Empire every system has the right to demand protection...adequate protection. Can't have a Home Fleet of 60 SD(P)'s if that represents 60% of your SD(P)'s because both Talbott and Silesia will be demanding SD(P)'s for protection and with good cause.


Now that the war with the League is effectively over the Merchant Marine can go back and start rebuilding revenue streams since the League would be happy to see their economy recover as well.

[Italics mine]

Don't the highlighted parts of your argument contradict each other? Unless you are wanting to defend from the MAlign? Which as things stand pretty much cannot be done witness the take down of Moriarty in Beowulf. Those mystery ships still cannot be detected.

Yes defense is important, but the MAlign has its own retrenching to do. Now is the time to concentrate more on bread and butter, less on guns and bullets. And no one is talking the elimination of the RMN and its commitments.

PeterZ wrote:Totally agree with you, kzt.

The question in my mind is what revenue stream the SEM and GA will have down the road. If the SEM manages to use their resources to modernize the Quadrant and achieve GPD growth rates of 10% annually, they could double the ante-Empire GPD of the region 4 times. Using far poorer technology China managed a similar feat over 2-3 decades from the 1990s

Which would mean absolutely nothing if the MA comes around and blows it up.

The GA does not know how big or how industrialized the MA is, if they have 1 system or 100 systems or if they have a system at all. If they don't know that, they cannot assume that there is a dacade or 2 of peace coming, the MA might hide out for 100 years, it might disintegrate altogether or it might double down and start coming back for more. If you end up with only 100 SD(P)'s in service while having 50 systems to protect someone is bound to get the short end of the stick and it most likely will be everyone in the SEM as there won't be enough to go around . Talbott joined the SEM for security first and economic prosperity second not the other way around.

So, if it is estimated that the Quadrant will achieve the median per capita productivity of the ante-bellum League in 5 decades, the RMN can set their growth rate to remain affordable. The same estimates work for Haven and the GA as a whole. Something the size of Haven hitting the median GDP of the ante-bellum League is a scary prospect. If they hit the mean GDP, that's even scarier.

And what if the SEM is not around in 5 decades because they couldent be bothered to protect their territory? What happens if 10, 20 or 30 years down the road Talbott petitions the League for membership because the SEM is not willing to protect them? Or decide to go it alone? All the investment is lost. What happens if the MA decides to launch attacks on Talbott with 20 or 30 SD's of their own? The RMN will be nearly able to put 20 SD(P)'s in 1 system let alone 16.

And what happens when Haven reduces their Fleet to 150 or 200 SD(P)'s? After all they are in just as bad of a shape as Manticore, so why would they maintain enough ships to protect the alliance if the other members are not willing to pull their weight? Grayson will likely maintain just enough SD(P)'s for their needs and provide some for the GA but if the other members are unwilling then Grayson might have just enough for themselves.

That calculous suggests to me that this is what finally makes the MAlign reveal itself and finally acts against the GA. If Manticore, Haven and the rest of the GA consolidate their political alliance AND growth their economies accross the board to Old League levels, the MAlign, RF and any League revanchists are screwed. Seeing that in the imediate future may well force them to act.

So in 20 or 30 or 50 years the 50 systems of the SEM and 100 systems of Haven will be all equal in industrial capability as 400 core and shell systems?

Invest in a crash training program for the RMN recruits from Talbott and Silesia and go from there, if Grayson can help while demobilizing with some of those freed up members being seconded to the RMN for training purposes the RMN can incorporate people from their new territory quite quickly. Some in a better of months, others in a matter of decades. This would give the people of Talbott and Silesia a stake in defending their homes and relieve the pressure from the SKM to provide all of the crews.