The Complacency of the White Haven Admiralty (Spoilers)

noblehunter wrote:It'd be a total mess but the League would last longer than it would without direct taxation. It'd buy them the two years they'd need to build new ships. If the GA took out the shipyards, it might quell the Core's objection to taxation.

Except it most likely wouldn't because a significant part of the League's members would be bailing ship even if the changes were 100% legal and they wouldn't have been. That's without counting what happens with MAlign meddling btw.

The League went into full irreversible meltdown sometimes between Filareta getting blown up and the Assembly driving Beowulf away. The approval ratings even from Core Worlds were terrible and that's when the Mandarins weren't openly messing with the Leagues foundations.

Sure it'd be more likely for something to survive by attempting to institute direct taxation - but it sure wasn't anywhere in the same ballpark as probable.

I dont think the question whether or not "the League" survives is totally relevant to this discussion.

The Mandarins dont need "the League" in its current form to survive and build a fleet to stand up to the GA. A couple of Core Worlds alone would theoretically be enough to do that.

kzt wrote:Yeah, find a nation that abandoned an existential war and surrendered because the couldn’t fit it in the budget. They may destroy the economy and creat huge problems to be dealt with “later” but it just doesn’t happen.

It was not an existential war. A negotiated peace--even with the Mandarins--was possible until right up to the end. Though I'm not sure what would have happened when the Mandarins ran out of legal ways to pay for things.

noblehunter wrote:It was not an existential war. A negotiated peace--even with the Mandarins--was possible until right up to the end. Though I'm not sure what would have happened when the Mandarins ran out of legal ways to pay for things.

The war plan from the SEM high command had the destruction of the SL as part of it.

This wasn’t what they choose to propose to the SL leadership at bayonet point, but the Harrington plan was an existential threat to the SL.

Star Knight wrote:I dont think the question whether or not "the League" survives is totally relevant to this discussion.

The Mandarins dont need "the League" in its current form to survive and build a fleet to stand up to the GA. A couple of Core Worlds alone would theoretically be enough to do that.

The Mandarins very much do. They're not going to remain in power in a much tighter structure after they couldn't keep the old League running.

Their power derives from the League being extremely big and not very united and from multi-system megacorps. Take that away and they're without a job - and they're not getting a new one with their resume.

A new, smaller government isn't going to be so eager to go after Manticore, Beowulf and Heaven.

Slneezy wrote:The Mandarins very much do. They're not going to remain in power in a much tighter structure after they couldn't keep the old League running.

Their power derives from the League being extremely big and not very united and from multi-system megacorps. Take that away and they're without a job - and they're not getting a new one with their resume.

A new, smaller government isn't going to be so eager to go after Manticore, Beowulf and Heaven.

This is why they came to power. I dont see it falling apart acting as a mechanism for them to lose power.

Long term maybe, but we are talking 5 to 10 tyears of open warfare against the GA. I dont see them changing horses while thats going on.

Star Knight wrote:Long term maybe, but we are talking 5 to 10 tyears of open warfare against the GA. I dont see them changing horses while thats going on.

Well, I think the odds of that seems really small. And I think the Mandarins have some urgent business elsewhere to conduct.

kzt wrote:

Star Knight wrote:Long term maybe, but we are talking 5 to 10 tyears of open warfare against the GA. I dont see them changing horses while thats going on.

Well, I think the odds of that seems really small. And I think the Mandarins have some urgent business elsewhere to conduct.

Sure i was writing about a scenario without Operation Nemesis obviously.
I think - as is pretty much hinted at in UC - that the Mandarins had a very good chance of getting the train back on the rails again and successfully fight the GA without Honor invading Sol due to plot.
As said, i think that without the power plot the Alliance would have just sat around, waiting for Lacoon magic to work somehow, only to disover one day that the window of opportunity has closed on them.

Not so sure. It's probable that core worlds who thought there was a threat could harden their defenses such that it would take major effort and time to hold the orbits. However major effort means a BatRon or two with CLACs in support, not a major fleet.

It also requires significant improvements in sensors and sensor platforms, but this all seems doable.

Being able to hold out against say 48SD(P) plus support or larger really requires the ability to conduct hyper capable mobile operations that can threaten SD(P)s at like 30 million KM.

That was a way out.

Star Knight wrote:
This is why they came to power. I dont see it falling apart acting as a mechanism for them to lose power.

Long term maybe, but we are talking 5 to 10 tyears of open warfare against the GA. I dont see them changing horses while thats going on.

Losing all the reasons why you're in power is a pretty good way to lose power.

The Mandarins wouldn't have anything going for them in a smaller League. The financial elites would be pissed off that they've lost the Protectorates most of the Shell, the planetary governments would want to have a greater hand in governance and would be pissed off at the bad decisions the Mandarins have been making, and they're not exactly popular amongst the average Joes.

Who exactly was going to support them?

Star Knight wrote:
I think - as is pretty much hinted at in UC - that the Mandarins had a very good chance of getting the train back on the rails again and successfully fight the GA without Honor invading Sol due to plot.
As said, i think that without the power plot the Alliance would have just sat around, waiting for Lacoon magic to work somehow, only to disover one day that the window of opportunity has closed on them.

The League was in a constant meltdown during UC. An extremely rapid meltdown considering the time it takes for information to even get around.

Like Beowulf had barely said they wanted out and several other systems instantly wanted out too - and that's before any serious economic or political impact could be truly felt.