In regards to the conflict with the Solarian League

Weird Harold wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:A lot of people on planets will not like the GA. But it won't really matter.

Yeah, it does matter.

The GA can easily win every battle and still lose the war -- or at least lose the "peace." That was the whole point behind the "Harrington Doctrine," Manticore, then, and the GA, now, can't afford to alienate any successor states, and they absolutely cannot cause the League to pull together and patch over the fracture lines the "Harrington Doctrine" depends on.

Enforcing the Epsilon Eridani Edict against the Mandarins just might accelerate the breakup of the League, but it does run the risk of alienating systems that think enforcing the Edict is solely the job of the SLN, even if it is the SLN violating it.

There are some people The GA is going to alienate just because the GA is nothing but an uppity bunch of neobarbs. And nothing will bring them around.

Harrington's delusion, if you will is not ideal, it may not even be good. Heck rolling over and surrendering to Filareta would be the smart choice. Not the choice anyone could possibly sell to QE III, but they're at war with the League, want to or not. May as well find a path that might lead to victory, since the other option is capitulation.

I doubt Honor is so emotionally tied to her delusional doctrine that if someone comes up with a more sensible plan she won't endorse it.

pappilon wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:A lot of people on planets will not like the GA. But it won't really matter.

Yeah, it does matter.

The GA can easily win every battle and still lose the war -- or at least lose the "peace." That was the whole point behind the "Harrington Doctrine," Manticore, then, and the GA, now, can't afford to alienate any successor states, and they absolutely cannot cause the League to pull together and patch over the fracture lines the "Harrington Doctrine" depends on.

Enforcing the Epsilon Eridani Edict against the Mandarins just might accelerate the breakup of the League, but it does run the risk of alienating systems that think enforcing the Edict is solely the job of the SLN, even if it is the SLN violating it.

There are some people The GA is going to alienate just because the GA is nothing but an uppity bunch of neobarbs. And nothing will bring them around.

Harrington's delusion, if you will is not ideal, it may not even be good. Heck rolling over and surrendering to Filareta would be the smart choice. Not the choice anyone could possibly sell to QE III, but they're at war with the League, want to or not. May as well find a path that might lead to victory, since the other option is capitulation.

I doubt Honor is so emotionally tied to her delusional doctrine that if someone comes up with a more sensible plan she won't endorse it.[/quote]

The plan is hardly delusional. It is likely to prevail. Even the Mandarins are aware of that.

This is a different time from now. You don't have to conquer each planet. You don't even have to land on each planet. All you have to do is destroy the navy and show that the leadership of the League is corrupt.

An Eridani violation, the loss of the navy, the slowdown of trade all will force a collapse.

Now in the long run it might not work because the Renaissance Factor (the next stage of MAlign) has thirteen planets all working to fight the GA. But that is for a later arc.

But the GA really is in control for this generation. The League will crack up. There will be defections in large numbers. That will free the RF to expand. If they are smart, they can gradually get their ideas through.

ldwechsler wrote:The plan is hardly delusional. It is likely to prevail. Even the Mandarins are aware of that.

This is a different time from now. You don't have to conquer each planet. You don't even have to land on each planet. All you have to do is destroy the navy and show that the leadership of the League is corrupt.

An Eridani violation, the loss of the navy, the slowdown of trade all will force a collapse.

Now in the long run it might not work because the Renaissance Factor (the next stage of MAlign) has thirteen planets all working to fight the GA. But that is for a later arc.

But the GA really is in control for this generation. The League will crack up. There will be defections in large numbers. That will free the RF to expand. If they are smart, they can gradually get their ideas through.

I agree the plan is sound, yet still fraught with peril as

Weird Harold

has pointed out. If WH prefers to refer to Honor's strategy as delusion over doctrine, I am merely willing to concede the point.

His point, I assume, is to remind one and all that no Harrington Doctrine long survives contact with the 800# gorilla.

Added to the League's problems, the long simmering resentments between the core and everyone else, the hated of all things core by the shell and the protectorates, and the thing just has to come apart. Its rather like stacking those rubber bands around a watermelon. no one is going to do ...anything, yet one band too many and kerplooey. And both the GA and the RF/MA, each for their own ends, are adding those little rubber bands.

pappilon wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:The plan is hardly delusional. It is likely to prevail. Even the Mandarins are aware of that.

This is a different time from now. You don't have to conquer each planet. You don't even have to land on each planet. All you have to do is destroy the navy and show that the leadership of the League is corrupt.

An Eridani violation, the loss of the navy, the slowdown of trade all will force a collapse.

Now in the long run it might not work because the Renaissance Factor (the next stage of MAlign) has thirteen planets all working to fight the GA. But that is for a later arc.

But the GA really is in control for this generation. The League will crack up. There will be defections in large numbers. That will free the RF to expand. If they are smart, they can gradually get their ideas through.

I agree the plan is sound, yet still fraught with peril as Weird Harold has pointed out. If WH prefers to refer to Honor's strategy as delusion over doctrine, I am merely willing to concede the point.

His point, I assume, is to remind one and all that no Harrington Doctrine long survives contact with the 800# gorilla.

Added to the League's problems, the long simmering resentments between the core and everyone else, the hated of all things core by the shell and the protectorates, and the thing just has to come apart. Its rather like stacking those rubber bands around a watermelon. no one is going to do ...anything, yet one band too many and kerplooey. And both the GA and the RF/MA, each for their own ends, are adding those little rubber bands.

Some might have considered HH's plans delusional early on when only numbers were looked at. As it became clear that Manticore and allies had a huge tech edge, things changed.

And Beowulf provided a real lot of info, I am certain, on the political currents inside the League.

pappilon wrote:I agree the plan is sound, yet still fraught with peril as Weird Haroldhas pointed out. If WH prefers to refer to Honor's strategy as delusion over doctrine, I am merely willing to concede the point.

His point, I assume, is to remind one and all that no Harrington Doctrine long survives contact with the 800# gorilla.

No, my point is that nothing short of the disintegration of the Solarian League will allow Manticore (and the GA) to survive in the long term. The GA MUST avoid any action that would cause the Solarian League to patch over the fracture lines long enough to close the tech gap and crush Manticore. That means more diplomacy and only as much military force as is absolutely necessary.

MAlign manipulation and SLN idiocy is going to help the Harrington Doctrine as much as it is going to hurt it. The MAlign wants the League destroyed as much as the GA needs it destroyed. There may be a bit more military action than envisioned originally, but the end result is going to be a lot of successor states without little, if any, lingering revanchism directed at Manticore or the GA.

Weird Harold wrote:
No, my point is that nothing short of the disintegration of the Solarian League will allow Manticore (and the GA) to survive in the long term. The GA MUST avoid any action that would cause the Solarian League to patch over the fracture lines long enough to close the tech gap and crush Manticore. That means more diplomacy and only as much military force as is absolutely necessary.

MAlign manipulation and SLN idiocy is going to help the Harrington Doctrine as much as it is going to hurt it. The MAlign wants the League destroyed as much as the GA needs it destroyed. There may be a bit more military action than envisioned originally, but the end result is going to be a lot of successor states without little, if any, lingering revanchism directed at Manticore or the GA.

Which is pretty much what the Harrington Doctrine says. Break it up if not into its individual systems then into small enough Rembrandt Trade Union type coalitions that they won't have the quantitative edge to become a threat, then try making allies if not friends.

Yes some will harbor resentments that the Huns broke their league regardless. And yes the Renaissance Factor will also be tossing its share of chaos and uncertainty to break up the league into bite sized morsels for its members to absorb.

a bit more military action than envisioned originally= no Harrington Doctrine long survives contact with the 800# gorilla.

I think we are very much saying the same thing. maybe one of us is saying it a bit more vehemently than the other ...