Remaining holes in SLN intel

n7axw wrote:

cthia wrote:When the Kim Jong-unian neobarbs acquire nuclear assisted miniaturized tech, it is much too late. LOL

Any time post Buttercup is too late. That was the tipping point where no navy without Gram's goodies could survive against a navy that had them...

Don

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Quantity is important but there are real equalizers. And the GA has them and far more.

It's really hard to identify which was the stronger revolution, the MDM or the podlayer, since both were introduced almost simultaneously.

Consider this scenario - Manticore invents the MDM, but not podlayers. Haven comes up with the podlayers, but no MDMs. Which would be more effective, Gryphons built from scratch with MDMs(a SD version of the Nike/Sag-C/Roland, basically) or Sovereign of Spaces loaded with SDM pods?

munroburton wrote:It's really hard to identify which was the stronger revolution, the MDM or the podlayer, since both were introduced almost simultaneously.

Consider this scenario - Manticore invents the MDM, but not podlayers. Haven comes up with the podlayers, but no MDMs. Which would be more effective, Gryphons built from scratch with MDMs(a SD version of the Nike/Sag-C/Roland, basically) or Sovereign of Spaces loaded with SDM pods?

It starts with the MDM. It was the vision of what the MDM could do that led to the development of the hollow core SD(p)s. However that being said, a podnaught filled with pods for single stage missiles could make a quit an impression on an opponent if that single stager outranged its opponent.

Don

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munroburton wrote:It's really hard to identify which was the stronger revolution, the MDM or the podlayer, since both were introduced almost simultaneously.

Consider this scenario - Manticore invents the MDM, but not podlayers. Haven comes up with the podlayers, but no MDMs. Which would be more effective, Gryphons built from scratch with MDMs(a SD version of the Nike/Sag-C/Roland, basically) or Sovereign of Spaces loaded with SDM pods?

I'd say it depends a lot on the exact scenario. Assuming equivalent (or better) compensators The MDM Gryphons would be far more effective on the strategic attack because as long as you locate the enemy soon enough you can dictate your course to hold the range against their SDM SD(P)s to beyond SDM range - you can pound them from 9 million km with impunity.

But on the strategic defensive you can't simultaniously hold the range open AND keep the attackers away from critical targets. If the Peeps are dumb enough to use them in a grinding system-by-system attack you should still be able to win by keeping out of their range and pounding them to pieces while they grab up relatively useless frontier systems. But if they realize it and switch to deep strikes they can hit critical systems like the Grendelsbane yards and then you can't keep out of their range without letting them blow the yards to scrap. So either you accept losses of major infrastructure (and whatever ships are currently undergoing construction or repair there) or you draw a line in the sand and let them close into SDM range - at which point their pods should be able to overwhelm your defenses and blow your Gryphons out of space.

And if they went straight for a Beatrice Bravo head on strike against the Manticore system itself? Again Home Fleet can get in some early licks, but ultimately they need to come into SDM (and possible even later energy range) of the Peep SDM SD(P)s before they reach range of the orbital infrastructure around Manticore. And if you let them into Manticore orbit then it doesn't mater if you could eventually pound them apart from long range because they're parked overhead demanding surrender on pain of orbital bombardment. (And with control of the orbitals that would be an allowed bombardment under the Edict)

ldwechsler wrote:

cthia"quote="Loren Pechtel wrote:If the SLN had been paying attention to everything going on in Manticore's neck of the woods, then they may have seen that their edge was quickly dissipating. If they had decided to jump on the nail, and hammer the problem before it got out of hand, at what point could they have rolled over the Haven sector?

I'm thinking right before the development of Apollo and the Ghost Rider bag of tricks.

No. The MDM was the game changer. At that point the only way for the SLN to win is exhaust Manticore's (or Haven's) magazines and that would have been awfully bloody.

Apollo simply changed the number of missiles it would take, not the fundamental issue.

I didn't think just the MDM advantage would be enough without the hellish ECM breakthroughs and Apollo to boot. Without the force multiplier, I think the 800# gorilla really did have the weight advantage, since they would also have had the intel, thus acting (planning) accordingly and sending someone who could tie their shoes and chew gum at the same time.[/quote]

We won't ever really know, will we? In a sense, this is a slice of reality. Often there are multiple improvements that can be used.

During the naval war in the Pacific, there were a whole group of improvements (which in terms of science and technology were based on even more developments) like radar, improved planes, more accurate weapons, atomic weapons. By the very end, we saw the development of jets.

And the buildup only started late in 1939, meaning it was only about five years. The Japanese had the technical edge in late 1941. Within two to three years that had switched.[/quote]
Actually the build up started in 1935-37 time frame. The real build up started with the two ocean navy bill in 1940. Most of the USN ships that held the line in 42 and early 43 were built between 1935 and 1939. The U.S. Military was seeing the writing on the wall as far back a 1934-35.

The MDMs turn the situation from just a compleat disaster to catastrophe.

Manticore has Ghost Rider, they have FTL and Apollo. They aleady have Dazzlers & Dragon's Teeth. They have the Grayson compositors improvements. They are also heavier than most in CM and energy counter missle defence.

Anyone comming in on RMN when it has all the above without the MDMs has still got a serious problem. SLN uses missiles but their configurations and tactics are structured in the direction of closing to energy range. They will send enough to swamp you based on their understanding of how things "should" operate. [They havent absorbed the lessons yet] Haven is configured for missiles as the primary tactical option.

Now you add pods (and pod layers) and what do you get? You can target and control a lot more missiles, at least for one or two volleys, than the other side and expect to get much higher penetration of the opponents cm envelope and higher percentage of hits. You can also open fire closer to the extreem edge of your missile's powered flight range and still get that level of control and penetration.
It's attrition. You swamp their defenses from further away, inflict more damage and lower their ability to shoot at you and erode their defenses. Scale does matter so fleet or even squadron level engagements thicken the numbers of weapons and so does the decision to concentrate fire. On the other hand, as you hurt their ability to launch at you (and the numbers of weapons you have to deal with), better your chances of taking less damage and lighten the load on your defensive suite.

How deep are your magazines and how many pods do you have (or can roll in sequential batches) and pod usage before soft kills eliminate them. It's that 1st and 2nd volley that is most critical.

Now add MDMs. You can do exactly the same thing from multiple times the opponent's engagement range. They are wholly defensive, they are going to take damage and they are unable to inflict it. You, on the other hand, can keep your engagement range open and manuver way beyond their ability much about it and unable to close even to their extreem missile range.
You are going to bleed them and bleed them untill they die, quit or you run out of missiles and you disengage. Ok, doesn't work so well in the Home System but then you have shoals of missile pods so there is a quatitative change there.

Then, you add the modern RMN LACs in CM role and your defensive shell deepens and thickens.

Catastrophe.
Crandall at Spindel, Fillerta at Manticore.

Hi Kzt,



Thanks very much for the link.

Given the RMN's 7X rolling fire control (with which the AI's help considerably), while Roszak had 'only' 3X as did Foraker IIRC, and a RMN SDP has at least a thousand fire control links, [if a Sag-C has 128 F/C links, an SDP of 18+ times the mass ought to have at least a thousand, maybe even 1280 F/C links; which means a single Apollo SDP could kill 500 SLN BF SD's using 7000+ pods in a single volley if pressed, a capability H-AH also forgot to mention to Filaretta.

Given around 600 Mk-23 pods externally tractored, an Apollo SDP could fire almost 15,000 missiles or kill almost 100 SLN BF SD's from 5 LM away by itself before it needed to reload, which she also forgot to mention.

I'm curious how long it will take FF and BF respectively to learn that little fact and what they decide to do then.

Definitely interesting times.

175 days to go!

But the Earc awaits!

L


quote="kzt"quote="lyonheart"Hi kzt,

Where was that RFC quote?

Just curious.

Is there other RFC commentary on ART etc?

L

quote="ldwechsler"
Much of this means nothing. First of all, in the text we know tehre were more than a quarter of a million pods set around Manticore. That could really devastate the Sollie fleet.
quotequote="kzt"
David later mentioned here that a very large number of those were in fact RHN pods.quotequote

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9044&p=251692&hilit=Rhn+pods#p251692

runsforcelery wrote:

kzt wrote:Look at the number of missile pods that the RMN discloses at 2 BoM. They had a huge stockpile of missiles.

True, but quite a few of those pods had "Made in Nouveau Paris™" labels on them. For some reason, Honor didn't feel real compelled to tell Filareta that. Can't imagine why not.

It's true that the Alignment had significantly underestimated the numbers of missiles and pods already available to the Star Empire, and they didn't have what you might call full or accurate information on just how capable Apollo actually was. In other words, they underestimated its lethality, at least to some extent, and expected it to be available in smaller numbers. With no expectation that the Republic would stand up beside Manticore (rather than shooting it in the back as soon as the smoke of Filareta's destruction had cleared), it actually wasn't irrational of them to expect that Eleventh Fleet would inflict at least some damage on Home Fleet and significantly erode the number of all-up Mark 23s which would be available against a Beatrice II.

[/quote]

n7axw wrote:

munroburton wrote:It's really hard to identify which was the stronger revolution, the MDM or the podlayer, since both were introduced almost simultaneously.

Consider this scenario - Manticore invents the MDM, but not podlayers. Haven comes up with the podlayers, but no MDMs. Which would be more effective, Gryphons built from scratch with MDMs(a SD version of the Nike/Sag-C/Roland, basically) or Sovereign of Spaces loaded with SDM pods?

It starts with the MDM. It was the vision of what the MDM could do that led to the development of the hollow core SD(p)s. However that being said, a podnaught filled with pods for single stage missiles could make a quit an impression on an opponent if that single stager outranged its opponent.

Don

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Perhaps. However, podlayers came quite a bit earlier operationally - in the form of the Trojan AMC - and MDMs were first used by a CLAC(so no pods). They would not need to outrange the opposition as long as they have sufficent missile defense(SDPs have lots compared to SDs) and number of ships to absorb the longer-ranged attacks.

Jonathan_S wrote:I'd say it depends a lot on the exact scenario. Assuming equivalent (or better) compensators The MDM Gryphons would be far more effective on the strategic attack because as long as you locate the enemy soon enough you can dictate your course to hold the range against their SDM SD(P)s to beyond SDM range - you can pound them from 9 million km with impunity.

But on the strategic defensive you can't simultaniously hold the range open AND keep the attackers away from critical targets. If the Peeps are dumb enough to use them in a grinding system-by-system attack you should still be able to win by keeping out of their range and pounding them to pieces while they grab up relatively useless frontier systems. But if they realize it and switch to deep strikes they can hit critical systems like the Grendelsbane yards and then you can't keep out of their range without letting them blow the yards to scrap. So either you accept losses of major infrastructure (and whatever ships are currently undergoing construction or repair there) or you draw a line in the sand and let them close into SDM range - at which point their pods should be able to overwhelm your defenses and blow your Gryphons out of space.

And if they went straight for a Beatrice Bravo head on strike against the Manticore system itself? Again Home Fleet can get in some early licks, but ultimately they need to come into SDM (and possible even later energy range) of the Peep SDM SD(P)s before they reach range of the orbital infrastructure around Manticore. And if you let them into Manticore orbit then it doesn't mater if you could eventually pound them apart from long range because they're parked overhead demanding surrender on pain of orbital bombardment. (And with control of the orbitals that would be an allowed bombardment under the Edict)

Great assessment. Kind of underlines the point that it's difficult to decide which is the stronger innovation - both sides acquire nearly unstoppable offensive capability, but neither can defend against the other.

lyonheart wrote:Given the RMN's 7X rolling fire control (with which the AI's help considerably), while Roszak had 'only' 3X as did Foraker IIRC, and a RMN SDP has at least a thousand fire control links, [if a Sag-C has 128 F/C links, an SDP of 18+ times the mass ought to have at least a thousand, maybe even 1280 F/C links; which means a single Apollo SDP could kill 500 SLN BF SD's using 7000+ pods in a single volley if pressed, a capability H-AH also forgot to mention to Filaretta.

Given around 600 Mk-23 pods externally tractored, an Apollo SDP could fire almost 15,000 missiles or kill almost 100 SLN BF SD's from 5 LM away by itself before it needed to reload, which she also forgot to mention.

I don't think they could properly control that heavy a volley--the whole point of Apollo is precision control as it enters the defense zone. I think that means they're going to have to dedicate a channel per Apollo control missile. It's not like the old missiles where the lightspeed lag meant there was no point to second-by-second control anyway.

Furthermore, the fact that there were survivors from Filareta's folly says they can't throw that much.

munroburton wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:I'd say it depends a lot on the exact scenario. Assuming equivalent (or better) compensators The MDM Gryphons would be far more effective on the strategic attack

[snip]
But on the strategic defensive you can't simultaniously hold the range open AND keep the attackers away from critical targets.

Great assessment. Kind of underlines the point that it's difficult to decide which is the stronger innovation - both sides acquire nearly unstoppable offensive capability, but neither can defend against the other.

I do want to add the postscript that MDMs do give you one nice advantage over SDM carrying SD(P)s, even on the strategic defensive. The fact that you and bring them under fire from beyond their own missile range means that they can't pre-deploy pods for a massive alpha strike.

(Any pods they rolled on the way in would be lost, unfired, when your MDMs started arriving) So at least you could force them to firing in single or maybe double salvos. I still don't think that saves you once they close the range, but it does help. (And it means you can't "cheat" by teaming each SD(P) with one or two legacy design that it hands pods off to during the run in to combat)