Remaining holes in SLN intel

pnakasone wrote:We must remember that the SLN has not needed to worry about having accurate intelligence on their target in a long time. They could win simply win by sheer brute force.

The SLN is simply not used to having to fight on the intelligence front of a war where victories there are needed to win victories on other fronts.

Look at what was involved in Operation Bodyguard in World War 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bodyguard

Isn't there yet another set of 500 or so SDs floating around waiting for round 2? Does no one else in the chain of command remember about them?

It doesn't seem to help at all actually giving them accurate intel. They choose to either just ignore it or totally discredit it then ignore it. They got the sensor logs of the attack on Byng. Their response: "Didn't the analyst (alFunadi) say it looked like it was faked?"

pappilon wrote:

pnakasone wrote:We must remember that the SLN has not needed to worry about having accurate intelligence on their target in a long time. They could win simply win by sheer brute force.

The SLN is simply not used to having to fight on the intelligence front of a war where victories there are needed to win victories on other fronts.

Look at what was involved in Operation Bodyguard in World War 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bodyguard

Isn't there yet another set of 500 or so SDs floating around waiting for round 2? Does no one else in the chain of command remember about them?

It doesn't seem to help at all actually giving them accurate intel. They choose to either just ignore it or totally discredit it then ignore it. They got the sensor logs of the attack on Byng. Their response: "Didn't the analyst (alFunadi) say it looked like it was faked?"

Indeed pappilon. If they only had you at ONI, you'd be worth your weight in gold-pressed latinum. Wait, that's another universe.

I do wonder if any of the Mandarins have taken the mountain of intel in their study and had a few all nighters using their own brains.

I also wonder what this latest fleet is comprised of. And where its CO's IQ falls. Between Byng and Crandall, or Crandall and Filareta? Or north of Filareta. Certainly can't be south of Byng.

Using a neutral freighter for a covert integence gathering mission is not all that dangerous takeing one from even Beowulf through the WHJ and then going somewhere...doesn't actualy matter where, it can even just be another leg of the Junction or it can be by hyperspace somewhere.
You have optical sensors and you have electronic sensors- passive. You come though the wormhole and have everything running at max sensitivity and recording to something buffered off your sensor system. Only a couple of people on-board need to have any idea and would also be agents. The entire dataset is then packaged and passed off to another ship heading back in the direction of Sol. If you head for someplace like Idaho, you short-stop your trip at point X and do the data swap with another ship out in the great dark. If you head to Gregor or Basilisk you do it there, possibly during a cargo transfer with some liberty.
How big does the Honorverse equivelent of a flash drive need to be for sensor data?
In any case, when the ship with the data returns through the Junction it exits at Sigma Draconis and passes off the data- either in a drive to ultra-tightbeam transmissioin to a passing SLN ship (covert or otherwise) and goes about it's business.

Even if Beowulf had let the SLN fleet go through the wormhole, they would have been later flogged for NOT stopping them after each wave got utterly destroyed in the killing ground that the inbound from Beowulf lane would have been. Heck if the SLN admiral ORDERS the AstroControl to allow passage of a group of SD larger (even much larger) than the either the safe maximum normal transit OR the theoritical max transit load, somehow it still would have been Beowulf's "fault" that what came out at the other end- if anything came out at the other end- was someting like something that went through both a woodchipper and a junkyard hydrolic crusher all mixed up. Wonder if they could even get identifiable DNA after that?

If the ship is NOT broadcasting stuff and it is only using passive sensors, how often is a customs inspection team going to crack open either the bridge computers and duty stations to look for other-than-civilian grade sensor equipment or inspect the actual antennas or other collection gear on or just under the hull for the same thing? You could even have two sets of gear, one "normal" and the other ultra sensitive mil-spec (SLN though) and camoflaged receivers for the good stuff. No record of the higher sensitivity stuff on the ship's computers, it's all a seperate system and you probably would have to tear out bulkheads etc to find the quality gear- which isn't going to show.
The SLN has got to have ONI and other black ops ships if for nothing elce that spying or OFS or BF/FF. Papers and all.
Not as good as a RMN Ghost Rider drone making a sweep but even the SLN analysts should't be able to miss all the activity and defense in depth around the Junction.

Brigade XO wrote:Using a neutral freighter for a covert integence gathering mission is not all that dangerous takeing one from even Beowulf through the WHJ and then going somewhere...doesn't actualy matter where, it can even just be another leg of the Junction or it can be by hyperspace somewhere.
You have optical sensors and you have electronic sensors- passive. You come though the wormhole and have everything running at max sensitivity and recording to something buffered off your sensor system.

SNIP

The SLN has got to have ONI and other black ops ships if for nothing elce that spying or OFS or BF/FF. Papers and all.
Not as good as a RMN Ghost Rider drone making a sweep but even the SLN analysts should't be able to miss all the activity and defense in depth around the Junction.

Knowing what was what at the Junction might have led them to abandon the "support mission" through the wormhole. But the mission wasn't seriously on the program anyway, until Rajampet added his secret clauses to Tsang's orders. The whole thing was just to get Beowulf on record for refusing the SLN transit, to muddy the water and "de-fang" any criticism of the Mandarins.

The problem it doesn't fix, though, is the mis-information that the Oyster Bay attack went through the systems active defenses and both destroyed a lot of the defenses, and used up a lot of missiles. That information was false, but you need a different method to test it.

A spy ship (Aviso?) might have worked for the defenses at the Junction, or before Oyster Bay changed the rules about ships approaching the planet. The drawback? There is supposed to be a circa 20 light minute range to shipboard sensors; the Junction is 7 light hours out; and all foreign traffic (aside from diplomatic vessels) conduct all their business at the Junction until further notice.

Roszak was involved in a number of covert ops, but nothing was said about covert ops specific ships. I suspect if they needed something, it was leased; or maybe, they'd have just hired mercenaries--like Monica's--for anything they needed real deniability on. I doubt they bothered much with electronic intel though; after all, who cares what ignorant nobodies are up to? More likely, slip someone like Harahap in for HUMINT/hacking. You could learn almost anything in the dockside bars. . . .

Regards,

Rob

Surely the passive sensors of the DB the SLN were using to detect the arrival of Filaleter(S) should also have picked up on the forts around the MWJ. It seems to me they were hanging around in the transit queue long enough to take readings.

pappilon wrote:

pnakasone wrote:We must remember that the SLN has not needed to worry about having accurate intelligence on their target in a long time. They could win simply win by sheer brute force.

The SLN is simply not used to having to fight on the intelligence front of a war where victories there are needed to win victories on other fronts.

Look at what was involved in Operation Bodyguard in World War 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bodyguard

Isn't there yet another set of 500 or so SDs floating around waiting for round 2? Does no one else in the chain of command remember about them?

It doesn't seem to help at all actually giving them accurate intel. They choose to either just ignore it or totally discredit it then ignore it. They got the sensor logs of the attack on Byng. Their response: "Didn't the analyst (alFunadi) say it looked like it was faked?"

There were a lot of ships in the Solarian navy. And thousands in the reserves. And, according to Kingsford, so much junk. All they could be used for would be to use up Mantie missiles. Of course, millions of Sollie sailors would die as well.

If the navy had accurate intel and passed it on to the leaders, most of what happened would not have happened. The Mandarins could have denounced Byng and then Crandall and opened up an investigation into what happened. And they would not have sent Filareta.

But they were diverted and knew almost nothing.

Remember that the First Battle of Manticore came about because Haven's leaders did know about the new weaponry and hoped to win before it became operational.

It seems the Sollies had none of that.

George J. Smith wrote:Surely the passive sensors of the DB the SLN were using to detect the arrival of Filaleter(S) should also have picked up on the forts around the MWJ. It seems to me they were hanging around in the transit queue long enough to take readings.

1) No, there are no sensors aboard mobile systems (ships or forts) in the Honorverse that can detect even a hyper transit into normal space from a distance of 7 light hours. Massive non-mobile passive gravity arrays 10,000 km across can detect the gravity disturbance of hyper transits into normal space at distances of light hours and even one (or more?) light days.

and

2) Yes, even the cheapest merchant grade passive sensors are capable of detecting the fortress at the Junction.

Vince wrote:

George J. Smith wrote:Surely the passive sensors of the DB the SLN were using to detect the arrival of Filaleter(S) should also have picked up on the forts around the MWJ. It seems to me they were hanging around in the transit queue long enough to take readings.

1) No, there are no sensors aboard mobile systems (ships or forts) in the Honorverse that can detect even a hyper transit into normal space from a distance of 7 light hours. Massive non-mobile passive gravity arrays 10,000 km across can detect the gravity disturbance of hyper transits into normal space at distances of light hours and even one (or more?) light days.

and

2) Yes, even the cheapest merchant grade passive sensors are capable of detecting the fortress at the Junction.

I mixed it up, the DB was waiting to confirm the arrival of the SLN fleet before going through the MWJ to pass that information on, whilst it was waiting for that, and during the time in the queue, it had time to determine the forts were still in place so the SLN TF that was supposed to go through to support would not have stood a chance. I don't recall the captain of the DB telling the TF commandant that the forts were still in place.

George J. Smith wrote:

I mixed it up, the DB was waiting to confirm the arrival of the SLN fleet before going through the MWJ to pass that information on, whilst it was waiting for that, and during the time in the queue, it had time to determine the forts were still in place so the SLN TF that was supposed to go through to support would not have stood a chance. I don't recall the captain of the DB telling the TF commandant that the forts were still in place.

I believe we were treated to a discussion on the bridge of that DB that they saw evidence of FTL communication and no text ev that anyone either asked or was told about it.

ldwechsler wrote:If the navy had accurate intel and passed it on to the leaders, most of what happened would not have happened. The Mandarins could have denounced Byng and then Crandall and opened up an investigation into what happened. And they would not have sent Filareta.

But they were diverted and knew almost nothing.

Remember that the First Battle of Manticore came about because Haven's leaders did know about the new weaponry and hoped to win before it became operational.

It seems the Sollies had none of that.

No--if the Sollies had done as you suggest they still crumble. The problem is the Solarian League only holds onto most of it's planets by being invincible. Along comes Manticore and smashes a wall of battle with cruisers--that's going to cause other worlds to be looking at how to get out from under the Solarian's thumb.

The only solution that is acceptable is to give Manticore a sufficient thumping that they can pretend to have won. They don't understand that's hopeless--system defense pods alone around any major planet can defeat the whole SLN.