Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Hi, Lyonheart, LONG POST WARNING
Wow, you are overcomplicating this. Or overthinking or something. KISS rules! This is like 3 different discussions.
Interspersed.
Rob
lyonheart wrote:Hi Rob,
How do we know the orders or plans for the punitive strikes came from Kingsford?
Given MAlign penetration of the SLN, very official orders could have been issued, possibly from one of the MAlign influenced mandarins via some very MAlign friendly admirals; Rajampet was hardly the only one, besides those like Filaretta down to unguided idiots like Crandall or Byng, appealing to their anti-SKM prejudices, could take or issue such orders to isolated SLN TF's or TG's as part of the MAlign's plan to gut or implode the SL.
They probably have a number of tools in the military, the beaurocracy, and business; but they don't NEED to use them. Whatever the League or its Navy does--
anything it does--will stir up trouble between different factions in the League, and harden the resentment against the League in the Shell and Verge. So if I was Detweiler, I would just let it play out and look for opportunity, not plan it out in any detail.
**Given how determined the MAlign is, ensuring the SLN screws up to push the SL's fragmentation, I think the MAlign would arrange several EE violations.
Given their detailed control of the SLN, having MAlign agents as anonymous dockyard tech's sneak a bomb aboard such ships when under refit etc, or some software patch to ships they have arranged to be in a particular TG, the above isn't that hard to set up, especially with such a huge bureaucracy that such orders could be buried amid the thousands issued every day.**
lyonheart wrote:Given the time required to properly investigate an EE versus the time before the SL disintegrates, the truth might be easily buried or smothered by other events, NTM the TG or TF might meet with 'accidents' like what was supposed to happen to the PRNIE after Torch, while a MAlign plant claims the unit 'disappeared and fled beyond the verge' etc.
Whether all the TG's ships were sabotaged with bombs as easily as Filaretta's was [evidently they wouldn't have to be that big], or just with booby-trapped software patches; AKA Shannon's NOT "Oops", or meeting some MAlign warships or 'Q' ships, or even an arranged ambush by one or more RF SDF's bent on 'revenge', there might be very few SLN survivors left to explain their side of what happened.
So far, there hasn't been any violation of the Eridani Edict to investigate. The Luff's group needed to be eliminated because if they had survived, the fact that their "advisors" were NOT Mesan Navy might have surfaced, leading to premature discovery of the Malign. Filareta's "accident" was arranged because the Malign knew he was smart enough to surrender before they got the casualties they wanted.
Why would they complicate things and risk exposure by having people put bombs on SLN ships? The only reason they got away with that clean the first time is the crew size of the SD is too big for the command staff to even know the names of the engineering staff. Well, assuming they even cared about lower enlisted scum, anyway.
** Yup, and a dockyard crew would be just as anonymous to the officers of even a tight run ship, and slip through just as easily; besides do you think that the MAlign has only one such deep penetrator or team?
Given their resources, they could control the whole dockyard or refit center, NTM several, to arrange as many booby trapped ships as they felt were needed.**
lyonheart wrote:Getting back to shattering the SL, the shell's systems probably outnumber the core or heart systems by at least 4 or more probably 5 to 1, as besides the 98 systems of the 'old league' there might be a couple hundred more adjacent to them that have been SL members for several centuries [2-3 before OFS], who are almost as rich and within reasonable communication with Sol, though they might enjoy seeing the core systems get hammered for once.
Beyond them are the 500-600 star systems of the inner shell and the 900-1000 of the outer shell, some of whom are apparently still controlled by the transtellar(s) behind a facade of democracy, who would gladly leave the clutches of the exploiting SL/transtellar monster if there were any alternative.
Until the GA there hasn't been one, now there is and it has better weapons than the SLN, besides thousands of ships, so there could soon be ~2200+ star systems (including the verge's 600+ protectorates) begging for visits and protection, trade agreements etc, with the GA, all at the expense of the SL.
There was an infodump in the Pearls, IIRC, where rfc was discussing the League. I think he said that while some of the Core Systems are as populous and nearly as wealthy as Sol or Beowulf, that most aren't; and the Shell systems not all that much different in population or prosperity from the systems in the Haven Sector or Silesia. Which is one reason for the lack of loyalty to the League--they are still being exploited by the League's Core worlds. Although that image of the League in the maps is a sphere, with specific layers, the books make it clear that Sollie territory is extremely irregular and variable.
**Of course it's irregular, but the center or core has been described as sphere like, I didn't say the shells were.
The 'old league' of some 98-100 systems is rich, but the average wealth of systems declines with their distance from Sol, NTM their time in the league.
The Maya sector seems to be an anomaly in being very modern, heavily industrialized and wealthy, despite its distance from Sol.**
lyonheart wrote:If the protectorate payments fade to zero in 3-4 monthes, though just the one-way 2+ month delivery time may negate any benefit to the SL; the mandarins won't have the money to keep the SL going, let alone pay anyone to build the ships needed to beat the GA, even if they had a clue what to build, NTM the time involved to get them built [1-2 years], worked up [3-6 monthes] and deployed [1-2 monthes] before the GA destroys them all over the next 2-4 monthes, when it takes out all SLN bases very soon after Beowulf's city is hit for the EE violation.
I suspect again, that like Filaretta's, the launching SLN ship may not survive the engagement.
While I understand there will be casualties at the battle of Beowulf, calling it an EE violation before rfc actually writes it seems premature.
**RFC has stated there will be an EE violation on Beowulf, but has not named the city.**
Also, when Lacaoön started, Agata and Omosuppe (?) both warned that the effect on the economy would start shifting from mostly affecting the Federal system, to impacting the economies of member systems if the RMMM withdrawal and closure of the MWJ lasts more than a couple of quarters.
That was April; now it is around September, and now it isn't just the MWJ but the entire network locked against them.
**Good point, and its actually into October with Mike in Mesa.**
lyonheart wrote:Regarding what we know about Kingsford's commerce raiding strategy, according to Khumalo's talk with Terekhov back in August 1920, Sarnow had 12 times as many ship's as Khumalo, or around a quarter of what the June 1920 Fleet strength Chart indicated for the RMN, roughly 10 ships per system, or plenty for several dozen convoys then, and Silesia also had priority for the permanent LAC bases, NTM the 48 Kamerling system defense cruisers have also been dispatched, so the SLN merchant raiders are unlikely to enjoy their visit to the SEM's Silesia district.
I suspect the same will be true for the Andermani Silesia province as well, and the RoH's MM has been fairly well protected against normal type raiding [1 or 2 or only a few ships] for some time, MR [Merchant Raiding] being a predictable SLN tactic in the face of their obvious tactical inferiority, so the RHN has had month's to get ready as well.
I won't say the SLN's Strategy board wouldn't consider it, but with the wormhole network down, the Navy would find it far more difficult to mount operations that far out. They have neither the logistics bases or ships to support the effort; the short logistics chain of the Solarian Navy was commented on in the text. Even if Battle Fleet never noticed --after all, they hadn't deployed to the Verge in how long?--Frontier Fleet units are not going to go for the idea of running 600 light years (or more) to a repair base.
**The SLN has repair ships, relatively speaking lots of them compared to everyone except the Haven sector if far fewer than the SLN should have; Crandall had a couple dozen repair and supply ships while Filaretta probably expected to have repair ships come through the MWJ after Tsang so Kingsford's preparations would include collecting enough for each theater of raiding operations as a given.**
lyonheart wrote:I wouldn't be surprised, given Shannon's first hand experience with AMC's, that she hasn't modified more than a few Haven freighters for the same purpose, with lots of MDM pods and proper fire control, NTM LAC's etc.
A solution in search of a problem. Why build Q-ships at all? ROH doesn't have Manticore's manpower problem, so build cheaper escorts or system defense units.
**Because Shannon Foraker is a sneaky Tac witch, who loves to ambush people with things they saw all along.**
lyonheart wrote:The punitive SLN attack may also be in reaction to the first news of that failure, or other evidence of its likely failure.
You are predicating retaliation for something unlikely to occur.
Also, too complex for the plot of a SINGLE rfc book.
My guess is that it is just in response to Lacaoön I and II.
**That's possible, but news of Zunker, Saltash etc, with intelligent analysis by our SLN HQ ONI heroes might increase Kingsford's recognition that his MR strategy isn't going to work, and MacArtney and most of the other mandarins are belligerent enough to push a more punitive policy, because they have to do something, don't they?**
lyonheart wrote:We learned in MoH [page 205, HB] that Case Fabius was the 'accidental' destruction of locally owned orbital infrastructure if they didn't sell out to the proper OFS friends, which the GA should have already be sharing with the SL and verge through its own newsies, along with Case Buccaneer etc.
Being able to confirm that from the files of Filaretta's and or Crandall's captured FF ships as well as BF files, could convince lots of intended neutrals to rethink their relationship with the SL and the GA.
Regarding the suggestion that the Sol system might somehow use unknown emergency powers to fund building a new navy before Honor visits is simply impossible given the time involved; all the money in the Sol system let alone the galaxy can't change that, even assuming the stupid or ignorant Sol public "chicken little's" could be frightened into giving up everything just to preserve the current set of mandarins, which I think most will agree is very unlikely.
Following Honor's conversation with Kingsford. I expect the MAlign newsies, not just O'Hanrahan [who may be busy elsewhere], to blab headlines like: "Sol surrenders!", "Sol has sold us out!", "Sol has sold us a bill of goods!", and "Solly E&I sold citizens silly lies!"; feel free to add your own.
Honor's conversation with Kingsford? hasn't happened yet.
When are people going to remember all the money spent on the "Fleet 2000" upgrades? All the propaganda telling everyone (especially the Protectorates) that the SLN was the most advanced military in the galaxy? And yes, it is time for the secure data from the FF databases to be dropped on the public.
**Honor's conversation is canon, and we know it won't happen until the SLN is toast, and Sol defenseless; what will everyone else say? Have some fun!**
lyonheart wrote:I also suspect that upon learning Mesa has been occupied and AD etc dead, the RF leadership may be hesitant to step out until they hear from Darius again, which even with the streak drive could take 3-4 monthes as Harahap demonstrated, thus delaying the RF's formation even further, leaving the GA the only obvious alternative to the SL for way too long for the MAlign's plan to succeed.
Foolish childish MAlign, meet real life.
The original plan does not have them "stepping out" until AFTER the League melts down. Also, Harahap never went to Darius; he reported back to Mesa when his assignment (assessing possible insurgents in Verge Systems) was complete, before being re-assigned to take Rufus's old job.
**Even with the streak drive, it took 2-3 weeks or more to get back to Mesa, and a round trip to and from Darius will take month's, and AD was coaching the RF's first moves back in SFtS.**
lyonheart wrote:From RFC's data dumps, my impression is that even the core worlds will fragment into a dozen plus odd new star nations, some of which may led by RF members, at least for a while, but loath to reintegrate.
Now realise by the next book, that all treecats, who are going to be spread across all inhabited star systems, are going to be looking for MAlign agents with their telltale secret beliefs of their genetic superiority etc, then haunting their nightmares until they are humbled and broken, then properly dealt with.
AARGH! I know you didn't just say the tiny population of treecats is going to spawn like mosquitos and infest every occupied planet, BY THE NEXT BOOK! And, until they become mind readers, they won't know about any "secret beliefs".
Get some sleep! you're dreaming now.
**Thanks to the memory singers the treecats can be updated on what is known and what to look for, NTM given their fury they will expand their hunting range to embrace suspect star systems, if they have 4-6 in each litter every ten years they could increase to 80-100 million, enough to send quite a few scouts out.**
Is that a cat in the shadows, or a treecat?
The next book could be even more fun!
L
SNIPPED
