Remaining holes in SLN intel

There seems to me that there is a misnomer regarding the unrealistic rapidity of the League fracturing. Regardless, seceding takes time. Beowulf had been keeping the idea warm on the back burner for quite some time. Then there is the entire drawn out political process that goes along with. Did Beowulf consult with Manticore before officially opening the can of worms with the League?

How many systems must depart before it can be called an actual fracture? Beowulf is simply a splinter. What makes them more poignant is the location of the splinter in a very sensitive area. They are numero Uno of the domino theory. The League attacked Beowulf to head off the domino theory. If dominoes are falling, you race ahead of them to take out one to stop the madness. You just have to take care that in your rush carelessness doesn't cause a chain reaction.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm not trying to be incorrigible on this point, but it seems that the SEM is putting too much on its plate. Had Oyster Bay not happened, it would still be impossible for the SEM to adequately offer protection and support to would be seceders of the League. In light of Oyster Bay, I just can't see it. The League should be able to make a military statement in about five years, no? It will take a lot longer than that to fracture enough systems to make a difference to the League's bottom line.

Most likely fracturing will not be in the order that the SEM would prefer. The really big financial contributors and the systems more important for other reasons, to the League may not follow suit according to the SEM's timeline. Playing a wait and see attitude before they risk all they've worked so hard to attain. The systems that will fracture first are the ones that feel they have nothing to lose. The poorest of the poor. I wonder if the SEM will be forced to play favorites? Of course they will. They do that with their own systems. They can't afford to support the poor systems 'til they get on their feet. Not at this juncture.

Militarily the situation is not as bleak as you paint it, since even a Haven cruiser (perhaps even destroyer) is more than a match for any SLN force that it will meet. If the SLN mounts a force so large that is not true, then the SEM can assemble a matching force.
It is because of the combat mismatch that I expect the SEM will not play favorites. To be believable the SEM will have to help the even the poorest get on its feet.

If the Havenite cruiser happens to come across the SLN amidst the ~ 2000 systems that they are browbeating. On top of that, the SEM's meat is spread so thin already, even before pledging to protect and support so many new systems, that a mother-in-law would be proud.

The SEM may wind up doing to itself what Harahap was trying to do. Unrealistic promises of support. Making promises they can't keep.

cthia wrote:If the Harrington Plan is to work, they must fracture a big enough chunk of that 3000. Systems are not going to split on account of promises. "You'll send us some ships when? Oh hell no. We are not going to be the next Beowulf!"

The Harrington Doctrine doesn't rely on the SEM/GA fracturing off League members. It relies on accelerating the existing stress and fracture lines that are in the process of breaking up the Solarian League without SEM/GA interaction.

Governer Barregos sees the writing on the wall and has been preparing his "Sepoy Option" independently of the SEM's interactions with the SL.

The Renaissance Factor is organized and planned to take advantage of and accelerate the breakup of the SL. MAlign agents and catspaws are working to accelerate the existing stress and fracture lines; causing rebellion in the verge, priming other OFS governors to follow Barregos' example, inciting the Mandarins and SLN to take the most counter-productive options for holding the League together, etc.

The SEM/GA is NOT the only factor breaking up the League; they are in many ways, just another MAlign Catspaw applying a sharp blow to the League's structure to accelerate the pre-existing fracture of the SL.

cthia wrote:The SEM may wind up doing to itself what Harahap was trying to do. Unrealistic promises of support. Making promises they can't keep.

The SEM isn't alone. The GA has other members and the SEM has other allies that aren't formal members in the GA.

The MAlign has formed the Renaissance Factor to remove as much of the former League from GA influence as possible -- actually to do what the Harrington Doctrine proposes while the SLN was supposed to remove the threat of Manticore and Haven (individually) interfering with the RF's expansion into a "New Solarian League." (aka the MAlign Empire of Supermen)

The Anderman Empire, Maya/Erewhon conglomerate, Judean League, Beowulf (and daughter colonies), Pheonix Cluster, and all of the other political entities that dot the Honorverse maps, will inevitably serve as seed-pearls for neutral systems to coalesce around as they leave the League (or the League leaves them.)

The GA doesn't have to provide more than a couple of dozen cadre to set up and man a Moriarty or Mycroft system as Military Assistance to new bilateral mutual defense partners. (Those who don't choose to design and build their own version or buy something Cataphract-based from Technodyne.)

There are ~2000 systems that will be affected by the demise of the Solarian League. That means there are 3,000 to 5,000 different solutions to survival post-league. What each system eventually decides after the political wrangling and horse-trading is done may or may not involve the SEM, GA, RF, or some other outside alliance.

Weird Harold wrote:

cthia wrote:The SEM may wind up doing to itself what Harahap was trying to do. Unrealistic promises of support. Making promises they can't keep.

The SEM isn't alone. The GA has other members and the SEM has other allies that aren't formal members in the GA.

The MAlign has formed the Renaissance Factor to remove as much of the former League from GA influence as possible -- actually to do what the Harrington Doctrine proposes while the SLN was supposed to remove the threat of Manticore and Haven (individually) interfering with the RF's expansion into a "New Solarian League." (aka the MAlign Empire of Supermen)

The Anderman Empire, Maya/Erewhon conglomerate, Judean League, Beowulf (and daughter colonies), Pheonix Cluster, and all of the other political entities that dot the Honorverse maps, will inevitably serve as seed-pearls for neutral systems to coalesce around as they leave the League (or the League leaves them.)

The GA doesn't have to provide more than a couple of dozen cadre to set up and man a Moriarty or Mycroft system as Military Assistance to new bilateral mutual defense partners. (Those who don't choose to design and build their own version or buy something Cataphract-based from Technodyne.)

There are ~2000 systems that will be affected by the demise of the Solarian League. That means there are 3,000 to 5,000 different solutions to survival post-league. What each system eventually decides after the political wrangling and horse-trading is done may or may not involve the SEM, GA, RF, or some other outside alliance.

There are a variety of things shaking up the League. Yes, we have the GA. There was a brief mention that four nations had seceded at one point. But a whole sector has sort of gone over to the Manties, based on the last book.

There are thirteen planets in the Renaissance Association that want a fracturing.

There are a lot of nations being run by the OFS who want to get rid of it.

There are planets who are more natural trade partners with Manticore than other League planets.

Who knows what fracturing means? If hundreds of planets leave, would a thousand world League still be all powerful?

Also, the money raised from protectorates as well as inter-planetary shipping fees pays for the League. Will there be many protectorates at all? For example, might the League make changes to prevent some planets from leaving.

And with very little money, the League's navy will have trouble funding much growth.

I'm still catching up in this thread, so somebody might have mentioned it already, but this reminded me of a bit of text-ev.

cthia wrote:I really do believe the rudiments of diplomatic immunity will be found within the Deneb Accords. Thing is, whether or not the League will respect the Deneb Accords is a wildcard.

Someone else brought up the subject of the delegation's diplomatic ship. It has either been dispensed back to Manticore or it has been seized. Being a diplomatic ship, it would have been unlawful to seize. Yet, in the face of so many Solarian ships that were either destroyed, or captured and sent to the breakers, what's one diplomatic ship?

It was about accords not allowing Astro Control to establish links with Diplomatic couriers

War of Honor wrote:Diplomatic couriers were the one type of vessel with which Astro Control could not establish direct telemetry links. Dalipagic shuddered to think what would have happened if she'd even suggested to Starlight that she could have handled the entire transit much more safely and efficiently from her own console. The very idea would have violated at least half a dozen solemn interstellar accords, although in Dalipagic's professional opinion, those solemn accords were pretty damned stupid. It wasn't as if establishing an interface and an override with the ship's maneuvering computers would have in any way compromised the sacred integrity of ...

(And while looking for it I found a couple other quotes about diplomatic immunity)

On Basilisk Station wrote:Consular dispatch bags had diplomatic immunity regardless of the carrier, and there were enough Havenite merchantmen in evidence to transport any dispatches the consul needed carried. The only advantage to tying up a courier boat on permanent station here was its greater speed—and the fact that the entire vessel had diplomatic immunity and so was immune to examination or search regardless of anything else it might be doing.

On Basilisk Station wrote:By Crown Proclamation, any Haven-registered ship passing through the Junction, regardless of destination or normal diplomatic immunity, must submit to boarding and search before she would be allowed passage.

Field of Dishonor wrote:In fact, I'd appreciate your passing my compliments to your people. Here in the capital, we're used to dealing with foreign security personnel; every embassy's got them, and, just like your people, most of 'em have diplomatic immunity. The thing is, we don't have any way to tell how good they are until it falls in the toilet.

War of Honor wrote:The earl had felt more than a little uncomfortable using Honor's private starship for this trip, even though he'd known it was silly of him. Honor herself had suggested that he do so in her letter to him, because the Tankersley was a very fast ship indeed. The fact that it enjoyed diplomatic immunity these days as Steadholder Harrington's personal ship was another reason.

Hope those are useful, or at least interesting.

So many topics.

There IS a war on for the SL. They may not have formally passed a legal declaration of war on behalf of the SL but they have had war declaried upon them by the Star Empire of Manticore and The Republic of Haven as a result of Fillerta's assault on the Manticore Home System with 300+ SD. Make no mistake, the League is AT WAR they just can't pass the resolution. They certainly are acting like they are at war.

We have TWO concrete pieces of information about what WILL happen at Beowulf and actualy none about if they have seceded from the the SL. Well, one piece on Beowulf and one on a apparently non-alined (non-SL member). The first is that Beowulf is going to suffer about 10,000 casualties when something happens. Exactly what, how, by who (- always intersting because we may see who but the people in the Hornorvers many not), and where it fits into Bowulf post plebiscite or whatever crisis the League forces. The second is that a piece of the SLN is going to kick the living shit out of some non-League system for trading with Beowulf "after" they have said they are withdrawng AND for apparently continuing to trade with Manticore. We need more information and we are perhaps a year from getting it.

There is a lot of resentment and bad feelings plus envy and visions of opportunity swirling around in the League. The formerly "friendly" long term tradeing partners of Beowulf who were going to vote against Beowulf and -clearly in the glimpse we get- are looking to step into Beowulf's position in the economic goings on don't bode well for inter-systems relations. Beowulf may or may not need that SDF to protect it's shipping against formerly freindly systems who will be empowered to snap up Beowulf Merchant Marine as belonging to a system that has committed treason against the SL and hence an outlaw....open season on Beowulf's assets. How that is going to go over with Beowulf's daughter colonies is another question.
It is hinted at in the series that, as well as SL isn't a homogeneous entity, much of what keeps members from getting into actual fighting or military takeovers of others is the SLN and the leverage of the Bureaucracy. The Buracracy doesn't want to loose the income (and graft) and outright warfare isn't good for their business, power or income stream.

OFS is an outright racket at this point. One of the things that OFS had been doing is providing a control for League Members and most of the systems in the Verge, etc from also trying the outright military take-over of systems outside the SL. That's OFS "job". They are supposed to "protect" the League from all that net-barb adventurism and disruption and bring these failed systems into civilization and make them learn to behave (at a monumental price).

With the BF not the invincable force and FF about to be ground up doing commerce raiding, a lot of systems (or individuals) are going to feel that the oppertunity is there to expand...expand a lot. Think of it as massive and bloody explosion of colonialism as both SL members and systems out in the Verge go dropping in on places they can aquire thought whatever means (military, "protectionism" in the OFS format since OFS is going to be bleeding everywhere, newly orgainzed "shared cultural and business partnerships between systems" that look a lot like one taking over another and holding a pulsar to the new "partners" head while they make it a colony.

So many problems, so many books could be written:)

Brigade XO wrote:We have TWO concrete pieces of information about what WILL happen at Beowulf and actualy none about if they have seceded from the the SL. Well, one piece on Beowulf and one on a apparently non-alined (non-SL member). The first is that Beowulf is going to suffer about 10,000 casualties when something happens. Exactly what, how, by who (- always intersting because we may see who but the people in the Hornorvers many not), and where it fits into Bowulf post plebiscite or whatever crisis the League forces. The second is that a piece of the SLN is going to kick the living shit out of some non-League system for trading with Beowulf "after" they have said they are withdrawng AND for apparently continuing to trade with Manticore. We need more information and we are perhaps a year from getting it.

The number I read was 10 million casualties on Beowulf.

cthia wrote:I really do believe the rudiments of diplomatic immunity will be found within the Deneb Accords. Thing is, whether or not the League will respect the Deneb Accords is a wildcard.

Someone else brought up the subject of the delegation's diplomatic ship. It has either been dispensed back to Manticore or it has been seized. Being a diplomatic ship, it would have been unlawful to seize. Yet, in the face of so many Solarian ships that were either destroyed, or captured and sent to the breakers, what's one diplomatic ship?

To Jonathan_S: The problem is that many worlds have the principle of diplomatic immunity in their laws, but the Solarian League does not. I do not believe that the Deneb Accords provide an answer to that, because they are about the treatment of citizens and captured soldiers in a time of war. So it would not be against League law to sieze the diplomatic ship.

tlb wrote:

kzt wrote:Haven cruisers and BCs run SDMs. So, while their defenses are better, they are roughly comparable.

So Haven did not get the Extended Range versions from Erewhon?

Oh, and the SLN has cruiser scale DDMs.