Remaining holes in SLN intel

I'm not trying to be incorrigible on this point, but it seems that the SEM is putting too much on its plate. Had Oyster Bay not happened, it would still be impossible for the SEM to adequately offer protection and support to would be seceders of the League. In light of Oyster Bay, I just can't see it. The League should be able to make a military statement in about five years, no? It will take a lot longer than that to fracture enough systems to make a difference to the League's bottom line.

Most likely fracturing will not be in the order that the SEM would prefer. The really big financial contributors and the systems more important for other reasons, to the League may not follow suit according to the SEM's timeline. Playing a wait and see attitude before they risk all they've worked so hard to attain. The systems that will fracture first are the ones that feel they have nothing to lose. The poorest of the poor. I wonder if the SEM will be forced to play favorites? Of course they will. They do that with their own systems. They can't afford to support the poor systems 'til they get on their feet. Not at this juncture.

cthia wrote:I'm not trying to be incorrigible on this point, but it seems that the SEM is putting too much on its plate. Had Oyster Bay not happened, it would still be impossible for the SEM to adequately offer protection and support to would be seceders of the League. In light of Oyster Bay, I just can't see it. The League should be able to make a military statement in about five years, no? It will take a lot longer than that to fracture enough systems to make a difference to the League's bottom line.

Most likely fracturing will not be in the order that the SEM would prefer. The really big financial contributors and the systems more important for other reasons, to the League may not follow suit according to the SEM's timeline. Playing a wait and see attitude before they risk all they've worked so hard to attain. The systems that will fracture first are the ones that feel they have nothing to lose. The poorest of the poor. I wonder if the SEM will be forced to play favorites? Of course they will. They do that with their own systems. They can't afford to support the poor systems 'til they get on their feet. Not at this juncture.

Militarily the situation is not as bleak as you paint it, since even a Haven cruiser (perhaps even destroyer) is more than a match for any SLN force that it will meet. If the SLN mounts a force so large that is not true, then the SEM can assemble a matching force.
It is because of the combat mismatch that I expect the SEM will not play favorites. To be believable the SEM will have to help the even the poorest get on its feet.

Haven cruisers and BCs run SDMs. So, while their defenses are better, they are roughly comparable.

kzt wrote:Haven cruisers and BCs run SDMs. So, while their defenses are better, they are roughly comparable.

So Haven did not get the Extended Range versions from Erewhon?

Frankly, I find it difficult to believe that any system would want to secede in light of Beowulf's reprimand. What system government would want to take that kind of heat? Heck, even the High Ridge government would have bailed on that offer and they are backed by the most powerful navy in the galaxy.

What are the potential seceders supposed to do? Despite repercussions similar to Beowulf, secede on principal? These aren't governments in a vacuum. Despite the fear of its citizens, does the prospective governments have a right to ignore the will of the people? People whose will may say nay, in light of the example made of Beowulf.

Let's face it. The first seceders are risking nothing less than any rioters and dissenters of volatile situations. Death and dismemberment. Ask Beowulf. The surviving citizens of Beowulf who were against the secession for the very same reasons many are now dead, I'm certain are angry as hell!

This post may have even more impact after we actually know the details of Beowulf's flogging.

cthia wrote:... Ask Beowulf. The surviving citizens of Beowulf who were against the secession for the very same reasons many are now dead, I'm certain are angry as hell!

... just like the German Citizens and British Subjects who were so angry at their government when enemy bombers destroyed their cities during WWII that they forced an early peace settlement and ended WWII in 1942. For that matter, in spite of the destruction of dozens of Japanese cities in the late part of the war, the Japanese people still believed they were winning the war.

Closer to home and more recently, George W Bush was at his most popular in the months after the 9/11 attacks, in spite of only barely winning the election and in spite of fairly compelling evidence that his administration had dropped the ball with respect to Al Qaeda in the months running up to the attack.

If some perceived outside power attacks civilians, the civilians tend to back their government.

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:

cthia wrote:... Ask Beowulf. The surviving citizens of Beowulf who were against the secession for the very same reasons many are now dead, I'm certain are angry as hell!

... just like the German Citizens and British Subjects who were so angry at their government when enemy bombers destroyed their cities during WWII that they forced an early peace settlement and ended WWII in 1942. For that matter, in spite of the destruction of dozens of Japanese cities in the late part of the war, the Japanese people still believed they were winning the war.

Closer to home and more recently, George W Bush was at his most popular in the months after the 9/11 attacks, in spite of only barely winning the election and in spite of fairly compelling evidence that his administration had dropped the ball with respect to Al Qaeda in the months running up to the attack.

If some perceived outside power attacks civilians, the civilians tend to back their government.

Well yea. After the fact. Trump doesn't have many supporters in his feud against North Korea. But if they were to attack the U.S., then hell yea. He's got our full support.

But no one in his right mind wants to invite death when it is avoidable.

I just don't think everyone will be so quick to be a pawn in the Harrington Plan. "Deal us in next hand, after the cards are looking a bit better. For now, we'll take a raincheck."

Containment is important to being convincing. The Beowulf disaster shows that the SLN has not yet been contained. And if the fire isn't contained, how can you guarantee we won't burn, when the winds could begin to blow our way at any time?

cthia wrote:Containment is important to being convincing. The Beowulf disaster shows that the SLN has not yet been contained. And if the fire isn't contained, how can you guarantee we won't burn, when the winds could begin to blow our way at any time?

It's not like an attack on Beowulf would seriously polarize the members of the League... Especially in light of how Operation Buccaneer is supposed to deal with any systems trading with the SEM/GA.

And rfc has earlier said that the average citizen within the League isn't that patriotic regarding the League itself. They are primary citizens in their own star nation.

Regardless, how do you suppose the membership of the League are going to react to the fact that the SLN is slapping around lesser star systems just because they are trading with SEM even though there is no official war on?

Do you really think that they will cower in fear? Some system certainly will, but we are talking about ~2000 systems here - and some of those systems are bound to be some larger star nations and I doubt they will be cowed.

The whole spectacle of trying to punish Beowulf and other star systems for the temerity of having a self determination that doesn't align with the Mandarins and SLN is going to blow up spectacularly. And then the wheels will come off the League.

Joat42 wrote:

cthia wrote:Containment is important to being convincing. The Beowulf disaster shows that the SLN has not yet been contained. And if the fire isn't contained, how can you guarantee we won't burn, when the winds could begin to blow our way at any time?

It's not like an attack on Beowulf would seriously polarize the members of the League... Especially in light of how Operation Buccaneer is supposed to deal with any systems trading with the SEM/GA.

And rfc has earlier said that the average citizen within the League isn't that patriotic regarding the League itself. They are primary citizens in their own star nation.

Regardless, how do you suppose the membership of the League are going to react to the fact that the SLN is slapping around lesser star systems just because they are trading with SEM even though there is no official war on?

Do you really think that they will cower in fear? Some system certainly will, but we are talking about ~2000 systems here - and some of those systems are bound to be some larger star nations and I doubt they will be cowed.

The whole spectacle of trying to punish Beowulf and other star systems for the temerity of having a self determination that doesn't align with the Mandarins and SLN is going to blow up spectacularly. And then the wheels will come off the League.

Joat42 wrote:

cthia wrote:Containment is important to being convincing. The Beowulf disaster shows that the SLN has not yet been contained. And if the fire isn't contained, how can you guarantee we won't burn, when the winds could begin to blow our way at any time?

It's not like an attack on Beowulf would seriously polarize the members of the League... Especially in light of how Operation Buccaneer is supposed to deal with any systems trading with the SEM/GA.

And rfc has earlier said that the average citizen within the League isn't that patriotic regarding the League itself. They are primary citizens in their own star nation.

Regardless, how do you suppose the membership of the League are going to react to the fact that the SLN is slapping around lesser star systems just because they are trading with SEM even though there is no official war on?

Do you really think that they will cower in fear? Some system certainly will, but we are talking about ~2000 systems here - and some of those systems are bound to be some larger star nations and I doubt they will be cowed.

The whole spectacle of trying to punish Beowulf and other star systems for the temerity of having a self determination that doesn't align with the Mandarins and SLN is going to blow up spectacularly. And then the wheels will come off the League.

You make a good point. But regarding the part of your post that I bolded, as far as Beowulf is concerned, I'd be surprised if the League didn't label them as traitors, persona non gratis. They should even lay out the heavily skewed reasons as to why. A propaganda campaign against Beowulf.

But yes, I do think some systems will run scared. A lot of them will. That is how they were finagled into accepting the graft and corruption anyways. The League capitalized off of their fear. Again, the 800# gorilla may have taken a beating from the mighty Manticore, but the Verge and Shell ain't up to it.

A lot of systems are going to get squashed and they're going to say "Where was the RMN?"

500 umbrellas (GA total ships?) can't stop the rains from falling on 2000 systems.