Remaining holes in SLN intel

I'll point out that some system that we won't name is supposed to rebuild their entire industrial infrastructure from basically scratch, including training new staff from receiving clerks to senior design engineers, in several years. This cost over a decade of Gross System Product originally. While having basically no income or access to external banking systems.

So yeah, of course a core system can afford to build freighters and they know how to do it. A core system has a complete economy and has been settled for over a thousand years. It's like saying that Germany, Japan, France or China can't build locomotives or diesel engines.

It's deciding they want to do it that is the question.

kzt wrote:I'll point out that some system that we won't name is supposed to rebuild their entire industrial infrastructure from basically scratch, including training new staff from receiving clerks to senior design engineers, in several years. This cost over a decade of Gross System Product originally. While having basically no income or access to external banking systems.

So yeah, of course a core system can afford to build freighters and they know how to do it. A core system has a complete economy and has been settled for over a thousand years. It's like saying that Germany, Japan, France or China can't build locomotives or diesel engines.

It's deciding they want to do it that is the question.

I wonder. It may have made more sense to have traded for some of the products they weren't making locally. Having a "complete economy" doesn't have to mean that they are manufacturing everything they use locally.

And if there are so many shipyards on the core worlds, why was such a strong percentage of League goods being carried in Manty bottoms?

Furthermore, why bother? All they have to do to restore business as usual is to cut ties with the League which has been more trouble than it has been worth lately and voila! your friendly Manty shipper returns and you regain access to the wormholes and your old markets. Business as usual! Sounds better than coping with the RMN...

Don

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Joat42 wrote:1. Not all infrastructure was lost. All the mining and raw materials processing is intact.
2. Current textev says that basic fabricators and nanovats would be online after ~11 months
3. Building a shipyard is very simple task compared to having it actually build an SD. You can build it from COTS parts which can be sourced from almost anywhere.

So, having shipyards doesn't mean you actually can build SD's since you also need an industry capable of building all the parts for the SD's.

kzt wrote:A core world has a complete tech and manufacturing infrastructure. They don’t have the train a new generation of engineers and techs in addition to building shipyards. They just need a design to build using their existing plant and personnel.

Joat42 wrote:And you base that assumption on what? Do all core worlds have the ability to design new ships and have shipyards and engineers to turn out ships at will?

Do they have the capacity to manufacture all the parts that go into a ship? Even for warships? After the League breaks?

If it was so easy for the core systems to re-tool their current industry then Lacoon 1 + 2 wouldn't have had such an big impact since according to you it's easy to build ships, especially cargo ships that are magnitudes simpler than a warship.

There are shipyards dispersed through the League, but not as many as you believe there is. Because having an abundance of shipyards in the League doesn't make sense, either economically or logistically.

It's not as easy as you believe and in the end it's not about engineers, industry and R&D, it's about the money which pays for it all. And money will be scarce for the core worlds after the League breaks. It's not like the SL economy are doing well right now either and I guess there is a lot of rob Peter to pay Paul going around to keep some systems afloat.

I am not sure that we know much about the economies of the core worlds; it is the finances of the League bureaucracy and some transtellar corporations that are taking the big hits from the loss of the Verge and the closing of the wormholes.
Just building cargo ships (which I expect is ramping up) does not correct the problems for long distance freight movement, but it will help the flow between nearby worlds.

To tag along here, just a few points....

1. The SL economy is not the internal economy of the core worlds. With populations in the billions, they'll have a stupendous internal economy. I rather doubt that core world economies are impacted by the verge and shell being sloughed off. The transtellar's will certainly take a hit but the core world economies... Harder to say.

2. The core worlds have strong tech bases in most other areas but warships, and they may be ahead in other sciences. I would wager that most core worlds don't build ships routinely but I am sure plenty do. I also suspect that as word of Lacoon has gone out that there will be enterprising individuals who will look at building ships. If there's a need, some one will capitalize on it. They have the people, materials and industry to build ships, that is certain. Warships...eh, they'll get there but not in the next few years.

3. I've seen a lot of talk about warlords when we don't know how many of the SL core worlds are run. What sort of governments they have. We do know that they aren't monarchies. Since we also know that the majority of core worlds don't have warships beyond small SDFs I don't see how most core worlds could turn in to warlord empires. Their government style most likely won't allow for it and even if it does they don't have the ships. Those core few core worlds who do have significant SDFs will likely be looking over their shoulder for fear of the GA showing up. Especially for the immediate future once the SL starts to break up.

4. The SLN.. a tougher pickle, but once the league begins to fracture you've probably got the chance for some warlord-ism going on but I'd wager most of those ships will stay in the sector where they are. A war ship doesn't make money, doesn't carry a lot of spare parts and needs a lot of upkeep, after all.

Fireflair wrote:3. I've seen a lot of talk about warlords when we don't know how many of the SL core worlds are run. What sort of governments they have. We do know that they aren't monarchies. Since we also know that the majority of core worlds don't have warships beyond small SDFs I don't see how most core worlds could turn in to warlord empires....

The prospect of warlords comes from the fact that most SL worlds do NOT have significant warships or defenses. That makes them easy meat for rogue (former) SLN units as the League breaks up. Warlords generally wouldn't be homegrown but some of the better armed League worlds might flex their muscles to settle old scores and build empires.

Actually many core worlds, and several shell worlds have large SDFs, even if they are not deserving of the term Navy. Yes, about 2/3s of the league is at most at the level of a destroyer flotilla, and most of them are more like a division or two of destroyers, backed up by some LACs.
But most of those places likely have some level of fixed defenses, and a large number of places have significant fixed defenses in the form of forts (economics and politics probably mean that there are places that have forts that have nothing hypercapable larger than a CA, in fact, there could be places with forts and a destroyer flotilla). The warlordism is probably going to be restricted to the verge and protectorates. Not to say that there will not be some adventurism in the shell or even the core, as the author has spoken that many of the league systems that have forts are ones that have a reason to think they might possibly have unquiet neighbors, though some of the core worlds may have just seen no reason not to invest in the ultimate security insurance.

Weird Harold wrote:

Fireflair wrote:3. I've seen a lot of talk about warlords when we don't know how many of the SL core worlds are run. What sort of governments they have. We do know that they aren't monarchies. Since we also know that the majority of core worlds don't have warships beyond small SDFs I don't see how most core worlds could turn in to warlord empires....

The prospect of warlords comes from the fact that most SL worlds do NOT have significant warships or defenses. That makes them easy meat for rogue (former) SLN units as the League breaks up. Warlords generally wouldn't be homegrown but some of the better armed League worlds might flex their muscles to settle old scores and build empires.

HungryKing wrote:Actually many core worlds, and several shell worlds have large SDFs, even if they are not deserving of the term Navy. Yes, about 2/3s of the league is at most at the level of a destroyer flotilla, and most of them are more like a division or two of destroyers, backed up by some LACs....

A squadron of SLN/FF BC could deal with many of those lesser SDFs. A squadron (or two) of BF SDs could deal with most of even the larger SDFs.

Just about any SLN formation or base commander could turn warlord pretty much wherever they please. Some might start as invited protectors and some might just start with strong arm tactics.

With nearly 2,000 worlds to choose from in the League alone, the possibilities for nefarious activity are mind-boggling.

kzt wrote:I'll point out that some system that we won't name is supposed to rebuild their entire industrial infrastructure from basically scratch, including training new staff from receiving clerks to senior design engineers, in several years. This cost over a decade of Gross System Product originally. While having basically no income or access to external banking systems.

So yeah, of course a core system can afford to build freighters and they know how to do it. A core system has a complete economy and has been settled for over a thousand years. It's like saying that Germany, Japan, France or China can't build locomotives or diesel engines.

It's deciding they want to do it that is the question.

Just saying that a core world has the economy to afford ship building programs is a gross simplification. Some worlds certainly has ship building capacity but as I repeatedly said someone has to foot the bill.

And your example of Germany, Japan, France or China is an apt comparison insofar that if 90% of trade carrying capacity disappeared - what would happen to their economies. Couple that with another analogy - that NATO would fracture. Imagine the cost of consumer goods, for example a car in the US in this situation, when you have limited trade and the government are co-opting the production facilities and the engineers for military projects. Hey presto - severe inflation.

There would be economical problems for all involved. It's not like everyone has a surplus of manufacturing capability to produce all the goods needed in each country. And then you want to divert a lot of capacity to a program to build new warships.

And with your reasoning, there is also the added caveat that Lacoon wouldn't have the effect it has - since core systems can just start producing things locally with their abundant industry that has nothing better to do.

A core systems economy can be extremely large but when it gets hit first with Lacoon 1&2 and then the fracture of the League it is going to be affected - severely. That means where will be very little wiggle room for sinking money into projects that will costs billions if not trillions of credits and at the same time robbing the industry of needed people and resources.

So no, the question isn't "deciding they want to do it" - it's can they afford it.

Orbital forts in the SL, why? The League has been at peace for a long time. No outside threats. No need to innovate. No need for costly, useless infrastructure.

Manty forts are there because the home world was attacked more than once in the past. Then when the wormhole was discovered, some smart person (DW) realized it was a gun pointed at Manticore's heart. A reason for a robust fort structure.

If there are forts, with none mentioned in Operation Lacoon, where are they? Beowulf doesn't have them because they 'trust' Manticore.

Next for the intel lapse, where are the new plans and weapons coming from? Let's assume they can start building massively today. Who has the new designs for the weapons? Who has the redesigned ships? Who has the naval officers flexible enough to develop new tactics based on these new designs? Who has the time to train in these new tactics? Even if they had cutting edge plans, each of these steps takes time.

Remember all those high ranking officers who bought the fanciful stories of Manty superiority. There were none. Even the mid-level officers that believed had problems of believing all the reports.

Joat42 wrote:Just saying that a core world has the economy to afford ship building programs is a gross simplification. Some worlds certainly has ship building capacity but as I repeatedly said someone has to foot the bill.

And your example of Germany, Japan, France or China is an apt comparison insofar that if 90% of trade carrying capacity disappeared - what would happen to their economies. Couple that with another analogy - that NATO would fracture. Imagine the cost of consumer goods, for example a car in the US in this situation, when you have limited trade and the government are co-opting the production facilities and the engineers for military projects. Hey presto - severe inflation.

There would be economical problems for all involved. It's not like everyone has a surplus of manufacturing capability to produce all the goods needed in each country. And then you want to divert a lot of capacity to a program to build new warships.

And with your reasoning, there is also the added caveat that Lacoon wouldn't have the effect it has - since core systems can just start producing things locally with their abundant industry that has nothing better to do.

A core systems economy can be extremely large but when it gets hit first with Lacoon 1&2 and then the fracture of the League it is going to be affected - severely. That means where will be very little wiggle room for sinking money into projects that will costs billions if not trillions of credits and at the same time robbing the industry of needed people and resources.

So no, the question isn't "deciding they want to do it" - it's can they afford it.

You must know much more about the economies of the core worlds than I do, because I have no idea how much of the GDP of any core world depends on external trade. So I do not know how good it is to compare to Japan, which is resource poor and trade dependent.
Lacoon and the loss of the Verge will definitely hurt the finances of the League bureaucracy and the multi-stellar corporations. Again I do not know enough to conjecture how this will affect the economies of the core worlds. Certainly there will be dislocations and failures among firms that need external resources, but does that result in a crash or just a minor blip?
If you have text to support your statements, then please produce it.