Remaining holes in SLN intel

quite possibly a cat wrote:

drothgery wrote:
Meanwhile unless the ghost of Baron High Ridge has regained power in the SEM, you are probably not doing this aimed at Manticore without them noticing it and reacting (heck, even if the SEM is being led by idiots, people at lower levels will still notice). And, erm, the SEM has way more resources than any single-system polity carved out from the SL Core, even a hypothetical independent Sol (the Junction, San Martin, the Talbot Quadrant, Silesia). And very powerful allies.

How can the SEM react to someone teching up and building up their fleet? By attacking a peaceful star nation? Come on, the SEM isn't going to do that. Too much democracy.

By not letting military R&D and construction drop down to peacetime levels (which if they don't do, no single-system polity can catch them without making a radical tech breakthrough Manticore can't quickly match)? By exerting political pressure in traditional ways other than war (Manticore's go-to there seems to be raising Junction fees)?

quite possibly a cat wrote:Even if Manticore has more cash, military build is basically done with internal resources/people. If they can maintain a friendship with Haven and Beowulf they probably stand a better chance. But what happens if say... a dozen core worlds decide to set up NATO?

Facing a dozen core worlds is a completely different story than facing one, which was what was posited.

kzt wrote:It has been well established, by David, that you can lose your entire industrial infrastructure and it only takes 2 years to fully build out SD shipyards from scratch.

1. Not all infrastructure was lost. All the mining and raw materials processing is intact.
2. Current textev says that basic fabricators and nanovats would be online after ~11 months (UH - Snippet #1)
3. Building a shipyard is very simple task compared to having it actually build an SD. You can build it from COTS parts which can be sourced from almost anywhere.

So, having shipyards doesn't mean you actually can build SD's since you also need an industry capable of building all the parts for the SD's.

And regarding the time for rebuilding the industry, you have already butted heads with RFC regarding this:

runsforcelery wrote:I'm not arguing here that Manticore will have completely regenerated to its pre-Oyster Bay industrial capacity in 5 T-years. I'm arguing that it will have reconstituted an enormous chunk of that pre-Oyster Bay capacity within 5 T-years, perhaps 75% of it within 10 T-years, and every single bit of it within 12.

Joat42 wrote:

kzt wrote:It has been well established, by David, that you can lose your entire industrial infrastructure and it only takes 2 years to fully build out SD shipyards from scratch.

1. Not all infrastructure was lost. All the mining and raw materials processing is intact.
2. Current textev says that basic fabricators and nanovats would be online after ~11 months (UH - Snippet #1)
3. Building a shipyard is very simple task compared to having it actually build an SD. You can build it from COTS parts which can be sourced from almost anywhere.

So, having shipyards doesn't mean you actually can build SD's since you also need an industry capable of building all the parts for the SD's.

And regarding the time for rebuilding the industry, you have already butted heads with RFC regarding this:

runsforcelery wrote:I'm not arguing here that Manticore will have completely regenerated to its pre-Oyster Bay industrial capacity in 5 T-years. I'm arguing that it will have reconstituted an enormous chunk of that pre-Oyster Bay capacity within 5 T-years, perhaps 75% of it within 10 T-years, and every single bit of it within 12.

Some important facts: the new tech means that Manticore does not need as many ships as before. All the new SD(P)'s will have Apollo built in. That makes them far more powerful.

And remember that the ships in drydock were destroyed. There were a whole lot of other ships not there.

Joat42 wrote:1. Not all infrastructure was lost. All the mining and raw materials processing is intact.
2. Current textev says that basic fabricators and nanovats would be online after ~11 months (UH - Snippet #1)
3. Building a shipyard is very simple task compared to having it actually build an SD. You can build it from COTS parts which can be sourced from almost anywhere.

So, having shipyards doesn't mean you actually can build SD's since you also need an industry capable of building all the parts for the SD's.

A core world has a complete tech and manufacturing infrastructure. They don’t have the train a new generation of engineers and techs in addition to building shipyards. They just need a design to build using their existing plant and personnel.

When the League does fracture, who gets to retain the weapons of mass destruction? Whatever remnant retains the SLN will quickly browbeat, coerce, stronghold or intimidate others to rejoin them. The SLN is no threat to the SEM, but they're a threat to everyone else, other than the 3 major powers. So, the Sol system will still represent the League, regardless of what it's called, and still large enough to cause considerable grief down the road.

I'd like to see how the economic mechanics of fracturing will be handled. Who is responsible for the enormous debt the League owes. League money is critical to the stability of the market, galaxy wide. Will the centicredit still be the dominant currency?

cthia wrote:When the League does fracture, who gets to retain the weapons of mass destruction? Whatever remnant retains the SLN will quickly browbeat, coerce, stronghold or intimidate others to rejoin them. The SLN is no threat to the SEM, but they're a threat to everyone else, other than the 3 major powers. So, the Sol system will still represent the League, regardless of what it's called, and still large enough to cause considerable grief down the road.

Don't you expect those who sign for peace with the SEM will receive some defense promises as a result? Specifically that the remains of the League, or at least of the SLN, would draw a reaction for any attempt at bullying a friend of the SEM.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:When the League does fracture, who gets to retain the weapons of mass destruction? Whatever remnant retains the SLN will quickly browbeat, coerce, stronghold or intimidate others to rejoin them. The SLN is no threat to the SEM, but they're a threat to everyone else, other than the 3 major powers. So, the Sol system will still represent the League, regardless of what it's called, and still large enough to cause considerable grief down the road.

Don't you expect those who sign for peace with the SEM will receive some defense promises as a result? Specifically that the remains of the League, or at least of the SLN, would draw a reaction for any attempt at bullying a friend of the SEM.

Indeed.

However, yin & yang.

Hence, why Beowulf had to be beaten. Set an example. Psychologically, Beowulf's whooping is going to lay heavy on the minds of many players. The fact that the criminals will be prosecuted after the fact is little consolation to someone in a pine box six feet under. The SEM cannot patrol the enormous League. Any of their responses will be reactions, not protections. Many polities are not going to want to be smacked around until big brother gets home.

The SEM just doesn't have enough ships. They're still light in the ass. They got a big chest, a huge chest, and big manly Manty muscles, but still light in the ass.

cthia wrote:

tlb wrote:When the League does fracture, who gets to retain the weapons of mass destruction? Whatever remnant retains the SLN will quickly browbeat, coerce, stronghold or intimidate others to rejoin them. The SLN is no threat to the SEM, but they're a threat to everyone else, other than the 3 major powers. So, the Sol system will still represent the League, regardless of what it's called, and still large enough to cause considerable grief down the road.

Don't you expect those who sign for peace with the SEM will receive some defense promises as a result? Specifically that the remains of the League, or at least of the SLN, would draw a reaction for any attempt at bullying a friend of the SEM.

Indeed.

However, yin & yang.

Hence, why Beowulf had to be beaten. Set an example. Psychologically, Beowulf's whooping is going to lay heavy on the minds of many players. The fact that the criminals will be prosecuted after the fact is little consolation to someone in a pine box six feet under. The SEM cannot patrol the enormous League. Any of their responses will be reactions, not protections. Many polities are not going to want to be smacked around until big brother gets home.

The SEM just doesn't have enough ships. They're still light in the ass. They got a big chest, a huge chest, and big manly Manty muscles, but still light in the ass.[/quote]

The SEM does not have to control all the space of the League. They control the junctions. They can destroy the great shipyards. They can raid wherever they wish.

Remember, the basic goal will be to blunt the League. The League will wind up far smaller. It won't have the resources necessary to fight since a lot of its money either comes from protectorate worlds which will kick them out and interworld shipping fees.

Damaging Beowulf may sound good but it sets a really nasty example. Doing it would open the door for the Manticoran navy to knock the daylights out of some key inner planets. And that might include Terra. For that, all they have to do is wipe out all the orbital stations including the big one around Mars.

If the SEM doesn't control the space in the SL, then the SL will militarize to do it themselves. So instead of one force 10,000 obsolete SDs you'll have 500-1500 forces of 60-800 modern SDs each.

What could possibly go wrong?

kzt wrote:

Joat42 wrote:1. Not all infrastructure was lost. All the mining and raw materials processing is intact.
2. Current textev says that basic fabricators and nanovats would be online after ~11 months (UH - Snippet #1)
3. Building a shipyard is very simple task compared to having it actually build an SD. You can build it from COTS parts which can be sourced from almost anywhere.

So, having shipyards doesn't mean you actually can build SD's since you also need an industry capable of building all the parts for the SD's.

A core world has a complete tech and manufacturing infrastructure. They don’t have the train a new generation of engineers and techs in addition to building shipyards. They just need a design to build using their existing plant and personnel.

And you base that assumption on what? Do all core worlds have the ability to design new ships and have shipyards and engineers to turn out ships at will?

Do they have the capacity to manufacture all the parts that go into a ship? Even for warships? After the League breaks?

If it was so easy for the core systems to re-tool their current industry then Lacoon 1 + 2 wouldn't have had such an big impact since according to you it's easy to build ships, especially cargo ships that are magnitudes simpler than a warship.

There are shipyards dispersed through the League, but not as many as you believe there is. Because having an abundance of shipyards in the League doesn't make sense, either economically or logistically.

It's not as easy as you believe and in the end it's not about engineers, industry and R&D, it's about the money which pays for it all. And money will be scarce for the core worlds after the League breaks. It's not like the SL economy are doing well right now either and I guess there is a lot of rob Peter to pay Paul going around to keep some systems afloat.