Remaining holes in SLN intel

Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

cthia wrote:Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

This would have been an even better idea before Filareta left for Manticore.
But would this stop the disintegration of the League? At this point it would make the loss of the Verge and Beowulf official.

cthia wrote:Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

This does sound workable. It also doesn't seem reasonable that the Mandarins will accept it for several reasons.
One is that, dispite endless talking and spinning, there is too great a chance that it will end their holding power even if they do get the war "called off". Long chain of events, built one on the other and it is only now that they discover it was somebody elce's fault and they shouldn't be blamed for A) Not doing their jobs, B) reacting to most things by applying more force?
Another is that even if they claim they were manipulated, that reflects vastly badly on them, their staffs, and the intelegence gathering operations that feed them data. Your back to- THROW THE IDIOTS OUT and their incompeternt minions.

There is also the Alignment continuing to guide much of what is going on withing the SL Buacracy and Navy. Who do you trust? Can career officers and enlisted from long term miltary families really be part of a several hundred year old plot to crush the league?

There is also the point that Manticore (and Haven now etc) is working under the Harrington Plan for a very good reason. They have to shatter the league to prevent short term- like 5 to 10 years- the League or it's major fragments from picking up their game and being able to come back at Manticore on something like an even game. The trouble with the plan is you also have to make sure the league -and now what you know about the Alignment will stay dead ....just dead from the League, find it and kill it for the Alignment. Tiger by the tail time but better than waiting to be crushed in 5 years.

cthia wrote:Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

I don't think so. For Manticore to accept after all that has happened would only set up a second round with the League having overcome its tech advantages. Not wise for Manticore.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

cthia wrote:Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

I don't think so. For Manticore to accept after all that has happened would only set up a second round with the League having overcome its tech advantages. Not wise for Manticore.

Don

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I agree it isn't wise, but politics is an ugly SOB even with makeup.

No, it wouldn't be prudent for the Manties to go along with it. But again, what can they do if the League goes that route, without looking like the baddies and the aggressor all along?

Wouldn't it tie the Manties hands politically? Same as the old 52-fakeout play called by Pierre and Saint-Just to stop the game late in the fourth quarter when the Manties had them 1st down and goal-to-goal inside the 5 yd. line.

n7axw wrote:

cthia wrote:Even though it is late in the fourth quarter, the SL still has that get out of jail free card. Claim that there is a hidden entity that has been manipulating them just like what happened when the same entity coerced two much smaller, easier to manage governments into war, when it should have been more difficult.

Then offer to pay reparations and bury the hatchet. Manticore will have to accept, because to deny would make them look like the baddies.

I don't think so. For Manticore to accept after all that has happened would only set up a second round with the League having overcome its tech advantages. Not wise for Manticore.

Don

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cthia wrote:I agree it isn't wise, but politics is an ugly SOB even with makeup.

No, it wouldn't be prudent for the Manties to go along with it. But again, what can they do if the League goes that route, without looking like the baddies and the aggressor all along?

Wouldn't it tie the Manties hands politically? Same as the old 52-fakeout play called by Pierre and Saint-Just to stop the game late in the fourth quarter when the Manties had them 1st down and goal-to-goal inside the 5 yd. line.

I know there has to be a lot of Houseman-like spineless jelly-fish on the Opposition that still find it hard to sleep at night, ever since the de facto state of war with the Invincible Solarian League!

They're pissing their pants and shitting their undies every time the cuckoo clock strikes 12. They'll be more than happy to sell out to a Mandarin cease fire and forget all, tell all, hugs and kisses, call me in the morning and "Cheerio, we'll do crumpets and tea!"

The League is dead. Too much of their income is from the Verge. If they lose the Verge and a little bit of their other fee income that means they lose most of their income. Then more Star Nations would leave, which would cut the income even more. Which wouldn't be that big a deal since they have a lot of graft and waste they could cut.

Except... they managed to get a decent amount of debt. Together, those things are a problem. If they let the League shrink then they'll probably not be able to pay their debts! Unless they can print money, but I don't think they can.

No one is sticking with the League to save that. Especially since they should have all left and created a new League with a better constitution several centuries ago! Oh and change the name so no one tries to claim you are actually the Solarian League. You're not paying those debts! So if the Mandarins offer a reasonable truce that says stuff like "We'll stop bullying the Verge and we'll let secession happen." they get kicked out of power.

Brigade XO wrote:There is also the point that Manticore (and Haven now etc) is working under the Harrington Plan for a very good reason. They have to shatter the league to prevent short term- like 5 to 10 years- the League or it's major fragments from picking up their game and being able to come back at Manticore on something like an even game. The trouble with the plan is you also have to make sure the league -and now what you know about the Alignment will stay dead ....just dead from the League, find it and kill it for the Alignment. Tiger by the tail time but better than waiting to be crushed in 5 years.

The problem is though the Harrington plan needs some really careful diplomacy to work. They need to break up the League and remain friends with most of them and keep them from just reassembling in a new reformed League with a better Constitution.

This simply cannot be done with force alone. You could force them into agreements that limit their freedoms as nations, but they'll resent that and not be your friend. Plus it would be real Iron Fisty. So if the League offers a truce where they respect the Verge and Star Nations' right to secede Manticore needs to take it or abandon the Harrington plan and go Iron Fist.

Also I think its unlikely Haven or Beowulf would go along with any sort of Iron Fist plan. Beowulf might not like the League Federal Government and corruption there, but they've never shown signs of hating individual League worlds. Besides, telling people "I don't mean you, you're one of the good ones" tends not to work. Finally, does anyone really believe Sol properly disarmed after the Final War?

So to summarize: The Mandarins can probably still tap out, but it won't save the League or their power.

quite possibly a cat wrote:..snip..

Brigade XO wrote:There is also the point that Manticore (and Haven now etc) is working under the Harrington Plan for a very good reason. They have to shatter the league to prevent short term- like 5 to 10 years- the League or it's major fragments from picking up their game and being able to come back at Manticore on something like an even game. The trouble with the plan is you also have to make sure the league -and now what you know about the Alignment will stay dead ....just dead from the League, find it and kill it for the Alignment. Tiger by the tail time but better than waiting to be crushed in 5 years.

The problem is though the Harrington plan needs some really careful diplomacy to work. They need to break up the League and remain friends with most of them and keep them from just reassembling in a new reformed League with a better Constitution.

If we look on how the League works right now, I doubt they could hammer out a new Constitution in the foreseeable future with a majority of the different star systems onboard. When a political union that has the size of the League breaks down the fallout it produces is of epic proportions. Any semblance of order on a grander scale will take many decades to rise. What you are going to see is different planets or transtellars banding together creating their own constitutions and this is what the MAlign are going to exploit - by gobbling them up, one by one as time passes.

Also, when the League shatters the economy for the old League members are going to take a hard nose dive and they will all experience an extremely serious recession that will make the current one look like a minor blip. That means that very few are going to be able to support any kind of offensive navy or possibly not even a defensive one. I'll bet we are going to see some elements of battle fleet turning to protection rackets or just plain piracy (like what happened in PRH).

All this means that after the League has fractured there will no large military threats to the SKM from any former League systems until many decades has passed or even centuries - not counting the MAlign.

. . .
(offtopic - bear in mind this may have been discussed already somewhere)
I just realized something regarding Bolthole - surely some people in StateSec knew about its location and they are still alive somewhere? It would kind of make it plausible that MAlign know or will soon know its location, which means we will perhaps see an attack there, right?

. . .
(offtopic - bear in mind this may have been discussed already somewhere)
I just realized something regarding Bolthole - surely some people in StateSec knew about its location and they are still alive somewhere? It would kind of make it plausible that MAlign know or will soon know its location, which means we will perhaps see an attack there, right?[/quote]

No, they don't, or didn't at the time of The Yawata Strike. Albrecht as much as admitted it in his convo with Colin.

Late 4th quarter? Too late to throw Byng under the bus. Bad option at the time way worse option now. It goes from a shot in the foot to a bolt in the neck. Can't undo the Beowulf secession, Can't undo Filareta's defeat in the league citizenry, can't erase the knowlege in the verge, can't stop the MAlign's nefarious plans of their own to destroy the league. Only forestall's Maya's own break-away and gets them even better prepared for it.

Crazy plot twist, since we're going there: Honor reprises her mission to Haven, Shows up in the royal yacht this time with 8th fleet minutes behind

Joat42 wrote:All this means that after the League has fractured there will no large military threats to the SKM from any former League systems until many decades has passed or even centuries - not counting the MAlign.

ONE Core world can build a military to take down the SEM. And I’m not kidding.