Honorverse ramblings and musings

The E wrote:Now, I don't think there's anything stopping a manticoran shipping company from reregistering some or all of their vessels in the Andermani Empire and then running them that way, but I would think that for the moment at least, the insurance premiums for ships heading into SL space are quite high; that, more than anything, is going to discourage companies from doing that in large volume.

Assuming you don't mind when they shoot you for dealing with the enemy. Manticore hasn't been shown to be really big on legalistic reasons why blatant violations of the law (like say trading with the SL - who the SEM formally declared war on) isn't something that they should tolerate.

kzt wrote:

The E wrote:Now, I don't think there's anything stopping a manticoran shipping company from reregistering some or all of their vessels in the Andermani Empire and then running them that way, but I would think that for the moment at least, the insurance premiums for ships heading into SL space are quite high; that, more than anything, is going to discourage companies from doing that in large volume.

Assuming you don't mind when they shoot you for dealing with the enemy. Manticore hasn't been shown to be really big on legalistic reasons why blatant violations of the law (like say trading with the SL - who the SEM formally declared war on) isn't something that they should tolerate.

We don't actually know what the law about this is. Yes, there may be a way to re-register ships (and we don't really know whether this is true) but the person doing it might well be considered treasonous.

Keep in mind that a) it is unlikely the Andermanni are going to be doing much trading with the League even if they are not part of the GA, b) crews are expected to be loyal to their new rulers which could get very tricky, and c) it is really dangerous to trade in the League while trade is really opening up between Manticore and Haven.

Keep in mind that the merchant companies are all part of a social group. It would be hard to totally disappear. And if Manticore found out one or more of its citizens was playing games, things might not be very good at all.

The E wrote:

cthia wrote:Then why can't Manticore loan freighters to the IAN? Is Manticore actually trying to embargo the League inasmuch as slap them hard by denying them the junction for shipping their goods?

I got the overall impression that Manty shipping was pulled out of the League only as a safety precaution. Not to prevent goods from being shipped to points in the League.

Preventing goods from being shipped in the League was one consequence of issuing a recall of all Manticore-registered shipping that was definitely taken into account though. The primary reason communicated was that tensions exist between the SEM and the League and that thus the RMN cannot guarantee the safety of manticoran vessels in League space, sure, but the crippling effect this would have on the solarian economy was as desirable for Manticore as getting all these ships to safety was. Laocoon I and II are all about using strategic force multipliers to inflict the largest amount of damage without actually having to fire a shot, if nothing else, they serve as a reminder that Manticore, for all its minuscule size, is not to be trifled with.

Now, I don't think there's anything stopping a manticoran shipping company from reregistering some or all of their vessels in the Andermani Empire and then running them that way, but I would think that for the moment at least, the insurance premiums for ships heading into SL space are quite high; that, more than anything, is going to discourage companies from doing that in large volume.

That being said, I think Weird Harold has it right: There's no reason for Manticore to prevent Andermani traders from using the Junction, quite the opposite in fact. MWJ access is the big carrot to the Laocoon stick, after all.

There is an awfully strong incentive to switch over to Andermani registration right about now. Manticore won't shoot them because that would be about the most moronic thing they could do short of I don't know... murdering millions of civilians on a world filled with rogue bio-engineers.

The League might do something stupid, but I think their smart enough to not get another opponent after the last couple disasters. This should end up shifting a lot of the trade over to the Andermani. Huzzah!

kzt wrote:Assuming you don't mind when they shoot you for dealing with the enemy. Manticore hasn't been shown to be really big on legalistic reasons why blatant violations of the law (like say trading with the SL - who the SEM formally declared war on) isn't something that they should tolerate.

So you're saying they should sell their ships to Andermani Empire or other neutral worlds? Because right now the Manticore shipping industry has lost nearly all of its work. There will be some gain from Haven, but no way its even close to make up for the vastly, vastly richer and vastly, vastly larger SL. But the demand is still there and there will be plenty of neutral worlds willing to do the League carrying trade. And they will be willing to buy the merchant ships at firesale prices.

Secondly, that's a terrible precedent to set while they're trading with Beowulf pre-plebiscite.

quite possibly a cat wrote:
So you're saying they should sell their ships to Andermani Empire or other neutral worlds? Because right now the Manticore shipping industry has lost nearly all of its work. There will be some gain from Haven, but no way its even close to make up for the vastly, vastly richer and vastly, vastly larger SL. But the demand is still there and there will be plenty of neutral worlds willing to do the League carrying trade. And they will be willing to buy the merchant ships at firesale prices.

Secondly, that's a terrible precedent to set while they're trading with Beowulf pre-plebiscite.

They haven't really lost nearly all their work. Some, yes. But what they have gained is Haven, AND Silesia AND Talbott. AND, shortly, the Maya Sector.

There also won't be plenty of neutral worlds doing the League carrying trade, because the OFS and Interstellers have systematically destroyed the independent economies of those 'neutral' worlds. See the Talbott Quadrant for their pre-Manticore carrying trade.

And, shortly, there won't be the demand from the League, either. Because the League is about to get smaller, very quickly.

I don't think RFC is planning a series ending where Manticore ceases to exist as a major merchant power. He's been too careful to make sure the new markets were already in place before the war against the League stopped Manticore trading with the League.

Bluesqueak wrote:They haven't really lost nearly all their work. Some, yes. But what they have gained is Haven, AND Silesia AND Talbott. AND, shortly, the Maya Sector.

Those are all tiny compared to the League. Manticore was handling most of the League's internal trade, and I'm pretty sure an even bigger portion of its external trade. The League is massive. It is richer and larger than everyone else put together.

Bluesqueak wrote:There also won't be plenty of neutral worlds doing the League carrying trade, because the OFS and Interstellers have systematically destroyed the independent economies of those 'neutral' worlds.

We see vast numbers of neutral worlds that hadn't had their economies wrecked by OFS. See: Mesa, Haven, Manticore, Andermani, the entire Talbott Cluster, Silesia, Torch, Erewhon, Zanzibar, etc.

Some of those worlds have since been conquered by Manticore, but some are still officially neutral. See: Andermani.

Bluesqueak wrote:See the Talbott Quadrant for their pre-Manticore carrying trade.

They had trade. There was a trade union in fact.

Bluesqueak wrote:I don't think RFC is planning a series ending where Manticore ceases to exist as a major merchant power. He's been too careful to make sure the new markets were already in place before the war against the League stopped Manticore trading with the League.

Which I why I suspect they Manticore isn't going to do anything that will get its merchant marine sold off. Much better to let them register with Andermani and let them ship civilian goods. Remember the battle is with the Solarian Federal government.

kzt wrote:

The E wrote:Now, I don't think there's anything stopping a manticoran shipping company from reregistering some or all of their vessels in the Andermani Empire and then running them that way, but I would think that for the moment at least, the insurance premiums for ships heading into SL space are quite high; that, more than anything, is going to discourage companies from doing that in large volume.

Assuming you don't mind when they shoot you for dealing with the enemy. Manticore hasn't been shown to be really big on legalistic reasons why blatant violations of the law (like say trading with the SL - who the SEM formally declared war on) isn't something that they should tolerate.

I considered the notion of delivering goods to an enemy. And one that you are at war with, to boot. But I thought that selling your own goods as it is in the Verge, Silesia etc., and not the Core of the SL wouldn't be frowned upon. Yet, in the Verge and Silesia there are higher probabilities that Manticoran freighters will be targeted by the League, but if they are squawking IAN IDs then they may be ok.* Offloading your own goods isn't the same as buying theirs. Besides, it could be used as a carrot to entice those systems bearing fracture lines that Manticore is soliciting, as a further incentive to split from the League.

As far as allowing the IAN access to the junctions for peddling their own carrying trade inside the League, reminds me of our present situation with North Korea, and the U.S.'s position of browbeating our allies to implement tougher regulations and to enforce stricter adherence to what has already been imposed. That doesn't exactly equate to Manticore and the IAN, as the IAN aren't a part of the GA. But the IAN are aware of Lacoon and its implications and they do utilize the MWJ, which I assume is a privilege and not a right. Albeit, that's an assumption, pursuant to legalese. I would assume that Manticore has a right to impose limitations on shipments to any polity which uses the MWJ in the face of war. But I doubt that they would enforce it, unless said shipments was military in nature, of course. But if they don't enforce it, per my original question regarding whether the IAN supports Lacoon by limiting trade with the League, then what is preventing transshipments? Which is the shipment of goods to the IAN -- representing Manticoran goods lost to the League due to Lacoon -- to then be shipped to the League? At any rate, it's a rather interesting proposition.

*If Manty freighters are loaned to the IAN, can they still be identified by their wedge signatures?

Weird Harold wrote:

cthia wrote:Are the Andermani honoring Lacoon as well, the embargo against the League?

Doubtful. No reason they should. (until the SLN decides to make an example of some Anderman Merchant ship for trading with Manticore or Beowulf.)

There's probably some legalese involved if they're shipping League cargoes through the wormhole network, but they're not likely to be too blatant about "blockade running" League cargoes.

How can the League attack IAN freighters without it being an act of war against the IAN? They cannot hold the IAN to their game plan. Also, would the IAN react to Operation Buccaneer picking off their shipments in the spirit of Harrington's Doctrine? The IAN may adopt a more aggressive posture with the League, frowned upon by the Harrington Doctrine.

Which begs the question of whether the RMN would ask them to pull back, if so. I wonder if the IAN is even aware of Harrington's Doctrine.

cthia wrote:How can the League attack IAN freighters without it being an act of war against the IAN? They cannot hold the IAN to their game plan.

!!!Spoiler Warning!!!





















According the few snippets we have:

The Solarian Leage (SLN) are attacking entire systems just for trading with Beowulf. The only thing possibly deterring them from attacking the AE directly is distance. (size wouldn't matter to them, the Andermani are just another bunch of jumped up neo-barbs)

If the SLN catches an IAMS somewhere in League space with anything originating in Manticore, Beowulf, or any of the GA members or anyone still trading with any of the above -- basically if the IAMS isn't hauling cargo for the SLN -- they're going to impound the ship and cargo. Thereby intimidating anyone trading with the enemy and reassuring League members of their care for law and free trade.

Yeah, the whole plan of backdoor trades with the League goes down the crapper right quick if the League decides to be idiotic.

Thinking it over, I may have been underestimating how stupid the League will be. On the plus side, that would help Manticore with making new friends. If they play their cards right, they'll be greeted as liberators, not conquerors. Especially since Henke made damn sure that her actions could be repudiated.

quite possibly a cat wrote:Yeah, the whole plan of backdoor trades with the League goes down the crapper right quick if the League decides to be idiotic.

Thinking it over, I may have been underestimating how stupid the League will be. On the plus side, that would help Manticore with making new friends. If they play their cards right, they'll be greeted as liberators, not conquerors. Especially since Henke made damn sure that her actions could be repudiated.

Again, we don't know what the assorted rules and regulations are. Can you register your ships for another system? And if you use the junctions at all, Manticore will know all about it.

The owners on Manticore might have a lot to answer for. We should also note that as far as we know ALL of the ships trading inside the League pulled out. That doesn't sound like they're about to play games.