Remaining holes in SLN intel

cthia wrote:

Loren Pechtel wrote:They don't really care. The more immediate problem is to restore the impression of invincibility of battle fleet so the verge doesn't up and leave. Once that is done then they'll worry about who the hidden player is.

Indeed.

Yet, IMHO, the idiocy in that is unless they are certain this third player won't be headed for Solarian space to do the same thing...

And the reason they should be wary of the possibility is because the Manties flat out told them that they are puppets at the end of a string dancing to a pied piper. And the neobarbs are so vested in the belief that they ended their very brutal very long war, and Beth removed her hate that was stuffed and mounted on the wall for decades and buried it in a pine box.

I wonder if Solarian intel even know the measure of the Star Kingdom and Beth's hate? Scratch that. She had never told anyone. But then it shouldn't be necessarily excluded as knowledge from SL ONI because of Beth holding it near her breast.

Loren Pechtel wrote:You're missing the point. The war against Manticore is for the survival of the Solarian League and the lives of the Mandarins. It does not matter who the third player is or what they want--it's not possible for them to pose a more serious threat than Manticore.

(Yes, Manticore can't destroy them. What Manticore is doing is destroying their illusion of invincibility without which they crumble.)

It would matter to the SLN that there is a third player, also, inasmuch as it would identify that the Manties "Screaming wolf" is true. It would provide the Mandarins a respectable way out, saving face.

What would be different if the Mandarins suddenly had an epiphany that there is indeed a third player and was just as outraged as Beth and Eloise? Could, bracketing for a moment if they would, they apologize to Manticore? Feign outrage even if it isn't genuine - though I cannot imagine why it wouldn't be - and release that information to their public, same as Manticore and Haven.

The information could save their sorry asses if handled correctly and reacted to properly.

cthia wrote:It would matter to the SLN that there is a third player, also, inasmuch as it would identify that the Manties "Screaming wolf" is true. It would provide the Mandarins a respectable way out, saving face.

What would be different if the Mandarins suddenly had an epiphany that there is indeed a third player and was just as outraged as Beth and Eloise? Could, bracketing for a moment if they would, they apologize to Manticore? Feign outrage even if it isn't genuine - though I cannot imagine why it wouldn't be - and release that information to their public, same as Manticore and Haven.

The information could save their sorry asses if handled correctly and reacted to properly.

Thank you. I've been pointed that out for a while. It's like the stories of the Russians in a troika chased by wolves, tossing one out in order to save the rest.

If things go bad, it would be excellent for them to have someone to blame. Rajampat is dead so very convenient. But if they can show that they've been betrayed they can have have a show trial or two.

things have gone too far. while the manties etc might except apologies etc that would only happen after a complete government overhaul. which the mandarins will never let happen because it would destroy their power.

that more then anything is the issue here now.

forget messa, Byrng etc. the mandarins will never do what they have to because they are bureaucrats not leaders. everything they've done has been an attempt to restore the status quo.

the status quo is toast and has been since crandall lost to a collection of heavy cruisers and some pods. arguably since Michele killed Byrng.

so have show trails. admit they were fooled (and how well is that going to be taken by the populace, especially when they realise they can't even get rid of those who were fooled except via violence as being unelected and completely in control of those who ARE elected) and then carry on as if everything is good?

not happening. the verge is GONE and will not be back without force. force that they are going to be hard pressed to implement given that most verge systems will be buying equipment from haven, manticore or barregos.

they might keep the shell but as has been said even there too many places are not happy with the mandarins and the way they work.

there is no way the mandarins can come out of this with their powerbase intact and that more then anything scares them to their bones and is something they will fight to the bitter end.

Dauntless wrote:
the status quo is toast and has been since crandall lost to a collection of heavy cruisers and some pods. arguably since Michele killed Byrng.

Honestly, it should have been super-easy to pull back from Byng. Just throw him under the bus super hard. Then back up, go forward and repeat a few times.

Their theory of the crime should have been this: "Byng clearly snapped, launched a ballistic attack against a civilian space station and then used that as an excuse to murder the Manties." this is evidenced by the fact that Byng didn't take any evasive actions via firing thrusters as would be the correct option when facing possible stealthy ballistic attacks. The only explanation for this is the Byng KNEW he was not in danger because HE was behind it.

Now obviously, you don't want it to look like some Neo-Barbs took on the SLN. So dispense a bounty to the Manticorians. That way it looks like they were working for you! Also dispense some humanitarian aid to the families of Byng's victims.

Now cut back on the corruption by about 50% and levy some fees onto the Transtellars you're backing. You can reduce corruption by piggy-backing onto the Techodyne investigations. Invest most of that in research, the rest in a decent investment plan so you can self-fund eventually, take a 20+ year sabbatical in cyro and get back to the status quo! Tada!

The only thing this would take is a little bit of intelligence and I see the problem. Never mind.

quite possibly a cat wrote:

Dauntless wrote:
the status quo is toast and has been since crandall lost to a collection of heavy cruisers and some pods. arguably since Michele killed Byrng.

Honestly, it should have been super-easy to pull back from Byng. Just throw him under the bus super hard. Then back up, go forward and repeat a few times.

Their theory of the crime should have been this: "Byng clearly snapped, launched a ballistic attack against a civilian space station and then used that as an excuse to murder the Manties." this is evidenced by the fact that Byng didn't take any evasive actions via firing thrusters as would be the correct option when facing possible stealthy ballistic attacks. The only explanation for this is the Byng KNEW he was not in danger because HE was behind it.

Now obviously, you don't want it to look like some Neo-Barbs took on the SLN. So dispense a bounty to the Manticorians. That way it looks like they were working for you! Also dispense some humanitarian aid to the families of Byng's victims.

Now cut back on the corruption by about 50% and levy some fees onto the Transtellars you're backing. You can reduce corruption by piggy-backing onto the Techodyne investigations. Invest most of that in research, the rest in a decent investment plan so you can self-fund eventually, take a 20+ year sabbatical in cyro and get back to the status quo! Tada!

The only thing this would take is a little bit of intelligence and I see the problem. Never mind.

Quite right, The Mandarins had placed the blame on Byng, agreed to a mutual investigation and tribunal, and threw every one they could under the bus, the Manties probably wouldn't have asked for reparations and OFS might have even gotten their foot in the door at NT by offering assistance to repair the NT space borne economy.

Even after Crandall, relatons might have been repaired, but the Manties would have wanted a VERY public apology and political reparations at the very least. But by not treating them with mutual respect,....

well, ya'll know the rest....

Theemile wrote:

quite possibly a cat wrote:

Honestly, it should have been super-easy to pull back from Byng. Just throw him under the bus super hard. Then back up, go forward and repeat a few times.

Their theory of the crime should have been this: "Byng clearly snapped, launched a ballistic attack against a civilian space station and then used that as an excuse to murder the Manties." this is evidenced by the fact that Byng didn't take any evasive actions via firing thrusters as would be the correct option when facing possible stealthy ballistic attacks. The only explanation for this is the Byng KNEW he was not in danger because HE was behind it.

Now obviously, you don't want it to look like some Neo-Barbs took on the SLN. So dispense a bounty to the Manticorians. That way it looks like they were working for you! Also dispense some humanitarian aid to the families of Byng's victims.

Now cut back on the corruption by about 50% and levy some fees onto the Transtellars you're backing. You can reduce corruption by piggy-backing onto the Techodyne investigations. Invest most of that in research, the rest in a decent investment plan so you can self-fund eventually, take a 20+ year sabbatical in cyro and get back to the status quo! Tada!

The only thing this would take is a little bit of intelligence and I see the problem. Never mind.

Quite right, The Mandarins had placed the blame on Byng, agreed to a mutual investigation and tribunal, and threw every one they could under the bus, the Manties probably wouldn't have asked for reparations and OFS might have even gotten their foot in the door at NT by offering assistance to repair the NT space borne economy.

Even after Crandall, relatons might have been repaired, but the Manties would have wanted a VERY public apology and political reparations at the very least. But by not treating them with mutual respect,....

well, ya'll know the rest....

The problem was that the Mandarins did not know how to pull back. This was new for them. Also, throwing a lot of obvious BS around when the data is clear does not work. Some governments try it these days and in democracies it seldom works.

Had they formally apologized and did reparations, not an enormous problem for a polity that large but they were determined not to give in.

Notice that their real strategy was to try to conquer Manticore. Then they could fixed all the evidence.

Instead, they are in real trouble. But down the line they do have people to blame. Rajampat is the obvious one but there will be others. Some human sacrifice is needed and they will be looking to blame anyone besides themselves.

Theemile wrote:
Even after Crandall, relatons might have been repaired, but the Manties would have wanted a VERY public apology and political reparations at the very least. But by not treating them with mutual respect,....

well, ya'll know the rest....

They repeatedly gave Crandall a opportunity to use the wormhole junction to send a message back HQ for a orders on what she should do.They will do the same.Let us both back down a bit and let politicians back home deal with the situation.

pnakasone wrote:They repeatedly gave Crandall a opportunity to use the wormhole junction to send a message back HQ for a orders on what she should do.They will do the same.Let us both back down a bit and let politicians back home deal with the situation.

Manticore repeatedly requested someone with the authority to call off Filareta, as well. The Mandarins (and Rajampet) simply ignored, denied, and tried to bully Beowulf.

Weird Harold wrote:

pnakasone wrote:They repeatedly gave Crandall a opportunity to use the wormhole junction to send a message back HQ for a orders on what she should do.They will do the same.Let us both back down a bit and let politicians back home deal with the situation.

Manticore repeatedly requested someone with the authority to call off Filareta, as well. The Mandarins (and Rajampet) simply ignored, denied, and tried to bully Beowulf.

There is a real, clear difference between Byng and Crandall. Byng was already at New Tuscany. Something happened and he quickly destroyed all the Mantie ships he was able to see. Easy to toss blame. He's crazy, he panicked, etc.

Crandall brought a whole fleet into Mantie territory. That was a whole different thing. Why was she sent there, etc.

The Mandarins were not used to facing crises like Crandall's even more than the one for Byng. They played some games for Byng and that created issues. Usually, I would guess, when someone went a bit too far, they buried the whole thing under bureaucratic bullshit. And, often, they simply conquered the planet making claims.

With Crandall things had gone much too far and they were unable to cope. Filareta just made it worse.

ldwechsler wrote:Crandall brought a whole fleet into Mantie territory. That was a whole different thing. Why was she sent there, etc.

Adm Crandall went to Split on her own initiative, in accordance with standard contingency plans. She could have convened an inquiry into Byng's actions and demise, instead, but she chose to jump over any minor details like finding out what actually happened and go straight for attacking the Talbott Quadrant's capital.