The way Duchairn’s salvaging the Church...

Of course it will take a while to build. Of course the gratitude of the MH is a chancy thing. Of course concessions from Duchairn may be reneged. Yet, the question stands; where will the MH go?

If Charis offers a solution that saves lives and the CoGA reneges on it, it's moral authority is further degraded. Under those circumstances how does the MH rank and file react to their church further dis honoring themselves in treating an honorable enemy? All that has happened has been blamed on Clyntahn. Any further dishonor enacted by the CoGA cannot be.

If Charis begins with that gesture, of moving the MH when no other nation can and discarding political advantage to do so, when they later push for emancipation of slaves and serfs; very few will doubt they do so from a moral motive. Each time Charis proves its moral compass aligns best with God as described in The Writ, it is looked to more confidently to provide direction. The Charisian crown guided by the Church of Charis strives to hold faith with God in how it treats everyone, even enemies that have recently strived to destroy everything Charisian hold dear.

Because the MH has nowhere on Haven to go, not transporting them South will mean their deaths. Now, if there is a solution in leaving those troops, unarmed, in the Temple Lands, all well and good. I just don't see Protector Stohnar allowing the CoGA that big a potential hammer to wield against his nation. Better to move them out and force the CoGA to rebuild whatever army they wish from scratch. That delay will give Siddermark more than enough time to get their nation and economy squared away before the CoGA will have anything reswembling an army capable of projecting force.

Given these dynamics, I believe it best serves Charis to exercise mercy, magnanimity and even a measure of grace. Mercy by letting defeated soldiers live when their own side wishes to kill them. Magnanimity by financing the building of those steam merchant ships. Duchairn can pay the operational expenses of moving and feeding those troops. Grace by not demanding the enemy's most effective military units not be destroyed when simply doing nothing ensures it.

Actually building those ships will be less demanding that one might think. The Charisian steel works have had to docus on building rifles, artillery and armor for the war. If they can focus on building hull plates and steel framing for merchant ships at optimal rates, they can build those ships within a year or two. That may not even be necessary.

They already have 4 Victory ships in theater. I believe they have a total of 6-10 in this first flight. The secnd flight will be all steel construction and is already planned. Allocating more resources to building those ships will expedite their completion. I seem to recall these ships can carry five times the cargo. I recalled that the galleons can carry something like 800 troop. That translates to 4,000 troops per Victory ship. The trip from Dairnyth to some city on the Harris Peninsula is approximately 2,000 miles. A victory ship can make that passage in 100 hours assuming 20 miles per hour or less than a 5 day per leg. Let's figure 10 days or 2 five days to move 4,000 men. Let's assume Charis has 10 Victory ships in their first flight. It will take 50 trips of 10 days each for each ship to transfer those troops. Assuming the second flight doubles the total number of Victory ship and the second flight will be completed 4 months from the completion of the first flight (with the reallocation of resources), the second flight can be in theater 5 months after the first flight is completed. Further assuming negotiations aren't completed 6 months after the Zion rebellion. There is a good chance that a full 20 Vicotry ships will be avaialable to move the MH when the MH is ready to be moved. Further assuming Baron Sarmouth didn't bother burning the RDN's galleons when he trashed Gorath, that's 40 more ships and the 10 or so surviors from the prior battle for 50 total. Each carries 800 troops but takes three times as long to make the trip due to wind and wave. Let's assume 30 days for a round trip. Those amount of resources will let the entire MH to move to the Harris Peninsula less than 1 year.

Moving them to greentree is a much larger proposition.

PeterZ wrote:Of course it will take a while to build. Of course the gratitude of the MH is a chancy thing. Of course concessions from Duchairn may be reneged. Yet, the question stands; where will the MH go?

If Charis offers a solution that saves lives and the CoGA reneges on it, it's moral authority is further degraded. Under those circumstances how does the MH rank and file react to their church further dis honoring themselves in treating an honorable enemy? All that has happened has been blamed on Clyntahn. Any further dishonor enacted by the CoGA cannot be.

If Charis begins with that gesture, of moving the MH when no other nation can and discarding political advantage to do so, when they later push for emancipation of slaves and serfs; very few will doubt they do so from a moral motive.

I can't help but think that Charisian magnanimity might only extend so far and unloading the problem of the Mighty Host off the Church far exceeds that. Remember that the Inner Circle's entire objective is to dismantle the Church and push all of Safehold towards a scientific mindset. The only reason they agreed to help Duchairn in his coup against Clyntahn was because the Inner Circle was war weary and only because they knew that by rendering assistance to Duchairn, they could get everything they've publicly called for from the beginning (i.e. religious reform, independence from the Church etc.). To that end, I really don't see any reason for Charis to help Duchairn with this problem when its ultimate goal is to destroy the Church. If the Mighty Host continues to be a problem for the Church, and one that widens the breach between it and Harchong, I simply don't see any reason for Charis to help the Church in this. At the very least, Charis will not offer to help, forcing Duchairn to ask for its assistance (which it might then render at a cost).

Charis already got everything it wanted out of the Church with the peace treaty that was signed. What would Charis need with Duchairn's goodwill or that of the Mighty Host? Right at this moment, the Mighty Host views Charis as the enemy that just beat them. While changing that mindset is a good idea on one level, achieving it is not a good idea on another level. We've already agreed that the Church would never allow Charis to simply transport 2-3 men and their families to Charis because then you would be handing Charis 2 million or so soldiers that might fight against Harchong or the Church in the future. That leaves moving them either home, which is unpalatable to the Harchongese nobility, or somewhere else, with who know what kind of repercussions. As I mentioned before, Duchairn needs to ensure that all the realms still under his control recover in order to collectively defend Mother Church in the event of another war with Charis or Siddarmark. That means maintaining an internal balance of power and quashing any civil unrest that might threaten the emerging security paradigm. And it is that potential for civil unrest that is the true threat to Duchairn.

Manumission of all slaves and serfs, and any social reforms that would allow the emergence of a powerful middle class, are exactly the sort of things Harchong and Desnair are most opposed to and they are a necessary consequence of Duchairn's reforms. What is more likely to happen is that Duchairn will be faced with an impossible choice whenever a slave/peasant revolt occurs. He must either side with the aristocracy in the name of stability and security (of the Church and its allies) or side with the common folk and risk alienating the leadership of those realms or the disintegration of these realms into constantly warring factions. We can be certain that Charis will side with the serfs and the slaves, and as such, Duchairn may find himself also facing opposition within the Church to anything Charis supports. Crank in steam-powered machinery that would eliminate the need for slave labor, and that dilemma becomes all the more acute.

thanatos wrote:I can't help but think that Charisian magnanimity might only extend so far and unloading the problem of the Mighty Host off the Church far exceeds that. Remember that the Inner Circle's entire objective is to dismantle the Church and push all of Safehold towards a scientific mindset. The only reason they agreed to help Duchairn in his coup against Clyntahn was because the Inner Circle was war weary and only because they knew that by rendering assistance to Duchairn, they could get everything they've publicly called for from the beginning (i.e. religious reform, independence from the Church etc.). To that end, I really don't see any reason for Charis to help Duchairn with this problem when its ultimate goal is to destroy the Church. If the Mighty Host continues to be a problem for the Church, and one that widens the breach between it and Harchong, I simply don't see any reason for Charis to help the Church in this. At the very least, Charis will not offer to help, forcing Duchairn to ask for its assistance (which it might then render at a cost).

Charis already got everything it wanted out of the Church with the peace treaty that was signed. What would Charis need with Duchairn's goodwill or that of the Mighty Host? Right at this moment, the Mighty Host views Charis as the enemy that just beat them. While changing that mindset is a good idea on one level, achieving it is not a good idea on another level. We've already agreed that the Church would never allow Charis to simply transport 2-3 men and their families to Charis because then you would be handing Charis 2 million or so soldiers that might fight against Harchong or the Church in the future. That leaves moving them either home, which is unpalatable to the Harchongese nobility, or somewhere else, with who know what kind of repercussions. As I mentioned before, Duchairn needs to ensure that all the realms still under his control recover in order to collectively defend Mother Church in the event of another war with Charis or Siddarmark. That means maintaining an internal balance of power and quashing any civil unrest that might threaten the emerging security paradigm. And it is that potential for civil unrest that is the true threat to Duchairn.

Manumission of all slaves and serfs, and any social reforms that would allow the emergence of a powerful middle class, are exactly the sort of things Harchong and Desnair are most opposed to and they are a necessary consequence of Duchairn's reforms. What is more likely to happen is that Duchairn will be faced with an impossible choice whenever a slave/peasant revolt occurs. He must either side with the aristocracy in the name of stability and security (of the Church and its allies) or side with the common folk and risk alienating the leadership of those realms or the disintegration of these realms into constantly warring factions. We can be certain that Charis will side with the serfs and the slaves, and as such, Duchairn may find himself also facing opposition within the Church to anything Charis supports. Crank in steam-powered machinery that would eliminate the need for slave labor, and that dilemma becomes all the more acute.

I largely agree with you. Where I disagree with just how disruptive the MH will become. They will be least disruptive in the Temple Lands. However, there they will be the gravest threat to Siddermark. No one can fault Siddermark for requesting those troops be moved home or South off Haven. Demanding that additional good faith effort of moving the MH South is not unreasonable of Siddermark. Incurring the cost of the shipping to move them South his a concession on charis' part to ease their ally's concern without placing undue burden on Duchairn. That's all reasonable.

The benefit to Charis is that they force the disruption by the MH immediately. The South Harchong will be forced to change much quicker than the North would like. One of the ways to relieve that stress is to use the MH as an offensive weapon against Desnair. Recall that the South Has all those weapons the CoGA paid for and haven't taken delivery on. One suspects that Siddermark and Charis would frown on moving all thse weapons north to Haven. Harchong will have all those trained troops, all those weapons and a history of animus symbolized by that wall. No matter what happens societal change will happen in Howard much faster than the CoGA is able to manage it. Just to push things along, Charis can ask for extra territorial right in CoGA owned enclaves in select port cities. The enclaves will operate under Charisian laws and be able to defend themselves in contrast to the Charisian Quarter in Sidar City during the Sword of Sheuler.

Should Siddermark accept the MH remaining in the Temple Lands, Duchairn can manage the societal change from steam much better. By limiting the MH's access to Harchong, Harching is spared rapid change. Change will come from Duchairn's measured policies.The CoGA has a better chance of looking like it deserves to govern Safehold. That does not align with the Inner Circle's nor Nimue's ultimate goal.

All the arguments about Charisian magnanimity and grace hide the calculating strike against the CoGA's moral authority. They will be forced to walk whatever middle ground they can manage at the expense of siding with the common citizens that enabled Duchair to win Zion. Should the CoGA appear resistant in freeing slaves and serfs, Charis will not. Should Duchairn side enthusiatically with the serfs and slaves, he encourages the leaders of those nations to form yet another schism. If Duchjairn goes so far as ask for Charisian help in emancipating serfs and slaves, he'll get it and further establish Church of Charis' moral parity with the CoGA.

Moving the MH South has no downside for the EoC and the CoC. Whatever the cost, the gain will more than sufficient return. If those extra territorial rights in those port cities are granted, Charis will be able to truly take advantage of the parity in moral authority to establish the foundation for the Reveal. Much like the Monestary of Saint Zherneau laid the foundation for Merlin's arrival.

You forget why there are Border States and why the Church granted independence to Silkiah. Originally these nations were created as a buffer between the Temple Lands and Siddarmark and between Desnair and Siddarmark respectively. The Church had feared Siddarmark's size and wealth and needed to ensure that they didn't expand further. Now the situation would be reversed - the Border States and Silkiah would now serve as Siddarmark's buffer against any Church "adventurism". If the MH remains in the Temple Lands and the Border States remained neutral (much like Austria was during the Cold War) with strictly limited military forces and weapons, Siddarmark would need only station a reasonable amount of military units (backed by a railroad that would move reinforcements up if necessary) and rely upon Charisian intelligence to warn them if the Church was violating the Border States' neutrality. Israel and Egypt have a similar arrangement regarding the demilitarization of the Sinai Peninsula and throughout the Cold War, the US supported the establishment of buffer states around the USSR.

But if the MH is moved to South Harchong, there is another possibility that North Harchong must entertain and worry about. What if the South doesn't use those troops against Desnair but rather against North Harchong? What if after 2-3 years the South decides that the North intransigence regarding religious reform is a serious impediment for the normal course of business and decides declare its independence? Remember that Yu-kwau was once named "New York" and that the North had managed to conquer the South. Remember that there are serious cultural and economic differences between North and South Harchong. As such if you hand the South 2 million or so well trained troops, they might decide that the time has come to bid farewell to the North and dare them to do something about it.

Moreover, you assume Desnair would not adapt to the changing military and technological environment, that Harchong would somehow overwhelm them and bring about a quick defeat, rather than getting bogged down it trench warfare or at least a lengthy stalemate. And you should also remember Merlin's reflections regarding the Church's occupation of Northern Siddarmark and that "there’s no point denying that Clyntahn has something Napoleon and Hitler didn’t — a political program which could actually generate popular support… especially if the alternative is the Punishment of Schueler." Harchong would almost certainly get bogged down trying to suppress local rebellions, which would be yet another drain on the South's resources (not the North's). The whole proposition looks too chancy, even for hidebound aristocrats who are committed to restoring the status quo ante where serfdom and their own personal authority is concerned. And such a war still assumes that the Southern Harchongese have the same interests as their Northern brethren. Additionally, it would fall to the South to supply these troops and not just weapons but food, medical care and any other equipment they need. So if the troops reside in the South and are supplied by the South, would they still feel that Harchong is one big united nation they are fighting for?

I think I was the one who first proposed the idea of Charisian extraterritorial holdings (along the lines of Hong Kong) and I still think it would be a good a idea. These would indeed be a better vehicle for change and force the nations that permit their creation to deal with Charisian influence. Imagine a Charisian enclave just outside of Zion along Temple Bay or one in along the Harchongese coastline. These would become eye soars for the local governments, especially if they granted work visas for the locals and these locals got paid far better than they would by local business owners. Harchong would probably refuse to allow such cities to be created but that would mean being left behind the technological curve and exposing themselves to the economic and military power of Charis.

Thanatos,
You confuse me for a Harchongese patriot. I agree with everything you posted. The MH down South will cause all sorts of issues at minimum and massive problems at worst. A war against Desnair won't end in a quick victory. The MH may well be used by South Harchong to gain independence from North Harchong. All of this benefits Charis' shrewd rulers in shepherding Safehold away from the embrace of the CoGA.

My contention is that Duchairn may be forced to deal with it immediately, IF Siddermark demands the MH be removed from either the Temple Lands or Border Kingdoms. They wouldn't be against the Temple Lands rebuilding their armed forces, but not with the MH. That direct and simple requirement based on reasonable concerns opens all sorts of options for Charis and the Inner Circle. Sure, Siddermark can find work arounds for that security requirement. They can't remove the threat so long as the MH is within reach of the Holy Langhorne Canal. They can only prepare to deal with that threat. I submit, that removing that threat after the Sword of Sheuler is an eminently reasonable requirement.

Gaining concessions from the CoGA to provide enclaves with extraterritorial rights to Charis is one of the more important concessions to be gained. I recall your suggesting this excellent idea first. The CoGA owns property in a bunch of places, many of them coastal/port cities in loyalist nations. Charis works out some sort of equitable tax/lease structure for the use of those enclaves in exchange for a legal and political framework amenable to Charis within those enclaves. Having them in North and South Harchong, Desnair and Dohlar will be very helpful to the Inner Circle. Especially helpful if there is already elements causing social upheaval in those nations, like say the Mighty Host moving south to Howard. Dohlar would be all for it. The transfer of troops will mean a huge windfall for Dohlaran ports and shippers.

PeterZ, I didn't really think you were a big fan of the Harchongese. I do think that any security concerns Siddarmark might have can be alleviated by pulling the MH all the way back to the Temple Lands and demilitarizing the Border States. Remember that Safehold hasn't really integrated steam power into its transportation system so moving the MH forward through the border states would take a long time and would be hard to disguise as anything else. The lingering problem is the cost of maintaining the MH in peacetime and disbanding it. Harchongese nobles might be willing and able to assassinate Rainbow Waters and his command staff if ever they return, for fear of their popularity among the ranks, but killing 2-3 million men is far more difficult.

What they will do to compensate for the loss of all that labor is beyond me, but the logistical costs and political problems involved in marching them to a southern port (without causing to much collateral damage on the way to a Dohlaran port), boarding ships that are large and fast enough to take them to South Harchong in a reasonable time and finding them housing in the interim while they reorganize them as a fighting force (kinda important if you want to use them effectively), is likely to be prohibitively expensive. And don't forget that Cayleb and Sharleyan would still need to justify such a decision (and its costs) to their people. The benefits of feeding starving Siddarmark in MTAT were clear to even the dumbest dullard in Charis, i.e. gaining the mainland ally they needed in their war against the Church (and aiding any Charisian expats in Siddarmark).

So how do Cayleb and Sharleyan excuse such magnanimity for public consumption? How do they answer the very legitimate question of helping enemy soldiers (not civilians as was the case with Siddarmark) relocate elsewhere at the expense of the Charisian tax payer? It just seems like too high a cost both monetarily and in terms of resources that would be tied down (practically the entire Charisian navy or merchant marine) for Charis to incur in return for "good will" from Duchairn or the commanders of the MH. Nor am I certain Dohlar would be too happy with the idea of 2-3 million Harchongese troops clogging up their port towns while they wait for a ship to take them across the Gulf. And I'm pretty sure they wouldn't want to foot the bill for feeding and housing them given how bad their economy was at the end of the Jihad. And any normal leader would be very leery about having so many foreign troops on his soil, regardless of whatever promises were made by the Church.

Thanatos,

Cayleb owns TRILLIONS in gold in his own name. Ok, many BILLIONS of marks. Silverlode is an Ahrmahk possession not a Charisian possession. The distinction is an important one. I believe Cayleb is either the Duke or Baron of Silverlode and that titles is NOT part of the Charisian aristocracy. RFC made the point earlier in the stories.

As such Cayleb can issue notes against the future delivery of gold from those mines without obligating the Charisian taxpayer for the repayment of those notes. So, in getting the UNARMED MH down to Dairnyth, he simply offers to pay for the housing, feeding and transportation of the MH in zero coupon gold promissory notes at the Telesberg issuance rate. He backs the full faith and credit of the House of Ahrmahk to repaying those notes.

Most of the suppliers will be Siddermarkians helping the MH move from Tarikah to Dairnyth. Some of the Border Kingdoms will also benefit. Most of these funds will be spent and circulated outside of Charis and so will not impact inflation much in Charis. Eventually these funds will be spent on Charisian goods and returned to Charis for redemption and removal from circulation.

Safehold will need the influx of liquidity to spark economic growth. I had suggested that Cayleb buy Desnairan slaves and Harchongian serfs for much the same reason, to imbue cash into Safehold's economy. Doing this costs Cayleb nothing he wasn't already looking for a reason to spend. This kills two birds with one stone er, chunk of gold. He gains a massive reputation for generosity in addition to his fearsome reputation in war.

That sort of offer is something that the MH's officers will value in several ways. They value Cayleb taking care of their men when no one else will. They value the opportunity to live un assassinated. They are given a chance to start life fresh down south.

Duchairn will see the problems of the MH down south, but also see Cayleb mitigating the cost Siddermark's request for security. How can he refuse when Siddermark is adamant in seeking this measure to grant their security? I'm guessing that Duchairn will guess this is at least partly Cayleb's desire to help an ally, to mitigate the horrific economic and physical abuse the CoGA, his Church, has visited upon Siddermark.

Siddermark will see their security greatly improved and a chance to jump start their economy. Yes, Siddermark may well be able to mitigate having the MH in the Temple Lands. Why would they settle for that if they can have them moved South? If Cayleb of Charis foots the bill gladly for his own reasons, will Siddermark refuse? No, they won't. All Cayleb has to do is to privately suggest The Lord Protector adamantly demand the MH be moved. The rest falls in line.

Cayleb and Charis will display the mercy, generosity, industrial might and logistical prowess their innovation and steam has given them. Who in his right mind would pass on adopting steam after they have witnessed how a shift in mindset has so blessed an entire nation? Charis went from being a small but wealthy out island to the most powerful nation on Safehold by far in less than a decade. That power can be used for good or ill, but Charis has proven that the change in mindset does not destroy one's love for their fellow man. Nay, it provides more resources to express that love.

RFC may write this anyway he chooses and I will without doubt enjoy the way he chooses. I just believe we are seeing the hints that the MH is headed South. There are too many plot devices available to make that happen.

RFC also noted that the Charis was concerned that flooding the economy with gold would cause massive inflation. So while it helps that Cayleb personally owes and controls Silverlode Island (in that the gold is a private asset of the crown), having that all that gold is not a magical solution for the question of financing such an endeavor. Moreover, the mainland is already suffering from hyperinflation, thanks to all the stops that Duchairn had to pull to sustain the Jihad, including diluting the bullion content of their gold coins and issuing government bonds. Charis might make that inflation problem much worse if the mainland economy is suddenly flooded with new gold (something Duchairn might take issue with). Remember that the actual buying power of any currency is dependent upon its perceived value in the eyes of the users.

As for buying up slaves and serfs, this would only work if Desnair and Harchong would be so desperate for liquid funds and are willing to give up on the right to own a person (and the sense of cultural superiority that goes with it). Any other circumstances would see them raise the price of their slaves and serfs enough to make it uneconomic to purchase them. Remember that the Confederacy was fighting for the preservation of the "peculiar institution of slavery" as an ideological matter. Desnair and Harchong may well be equally hidebound in their attitudes, especially since they most opposed Charisian "liberalism" and "pernicious social doctrines".

My personal feeling is that the Mighty Host will remain trapped in the Temple Lands, with only some of its troops allowed to return home (those troops that came from South Harchong). This would be one of those temporary stopgap measures that becomes permanent, just like the issue of the Siddarmarkian refugees. Siddarmark will likely settle for being separated from the Might Host via the Border States (and having them demilitarized). They might also take issue with any excessive magnanimity on the part of Charis. Remember that Stohnar was feeling a bit resentful regarding Charisian investments in Dohlar, but that he could live with it. I'm not sure he'd be willing to live with Charis helping the Church and Harchong to such a degree, even if it puts money in the hands of Siddarmarkian suppliers (and that assumes there are supplies to be had in western Siddarmark after the Jihad).

Hyperinflation will be largely kept to the Temple Lands. All the gold within the CoGA's vaults were released into the loyalist economies. Duchairn's bonds created a paper currency backed by the CoGA's promise to repay. Those notes will lose value very quickly. Gresham's Law predicts the pre-jihad gold will be hoarded, the newer gold coins will be circulated at inflated valuations and the bonds will trade at huge discounts. They will also be circulated most rapidly until the CoGA repairs the Church's economic reputation. As more and more production and food is released to the civilian economy, inflation are pressures will dissipate.

None of that impacts Western Siddermark. Their gold left with the loyalist refugees. The banks were looted, the rich took their wealth or had it stolen by loyalists and anyone with saving hid it from everyone else. The entire region needs an infusion of cash for their production. Full on gifts won't help, but guaranteed buyers for food production will help immensely. The lands begins to produce again. Those working the land will have wealth to spend on material production from the mines of Glacierheart and the manufactories of the Eastern provinces.

Siddermarkians will prefer Charisian marks to diluted Temple marks of any stripe. Having a note the Emporer of Charis will redeem for more gold than he sold it for sounds too good to be true, but Siddermarkians will trust his word as they wouldn't trust the Temple. Temple loyalists will NOT trust Charisian paper. Duchairn will gladly support food and logistical support for moving the MH as it eases his inflationary pressures in Zion.

I agree with many of the issues surrounding buying serfs and slaves. My thought was that Cayleb would set some absolute value for slaves and serfs to be sold to his agents as a standing offer. The idea was more to provide incentives for 3rd parties to bring escaped slaves to Charisian reps rather than their legal owners.

You may well be right about the MH remaining. I still suspect they will largely head south.

PeterZ wrote:H

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Siddermarkians will prefer Charisian marks to diluted Temple marks of any stripe. Having a note the Emporer of Charis will redeem for more gold than he sold it for sounds too good to be true, but Siddermarkians will trust his word as they wouldn't trust the Temple. Temple loyalists will NOT trust Charisian paper. Duchairn will gladly support food and logistical support for moving the MH as it eases his inflationary pressures in Zion.

I think that no one will care whether it is a Charisian mark or a Temple one as long as it is an honest whatever amount of gold in the coin. Charis could even produce and sell a test kit consisting of a standard weight for use on a balance scale and a measuring flask to testing displacement (Eureka!) to ensure that the coins have not been clipped or adulterated.