Remaining holes in SLN intel

quite possibly a cat wrote:

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:...
To expand on my earlier example, if a US military attache in Chile forwarded reports that the Chilean Air Force had an aircraft that could fly at Mach 30, with a 20,000 km range, and could take off and land vertically I very much doubt that report would be given much credence in Washington DC.

And it was powered by perpetual motion. Because the DDM were impossible. There was a definitive paper written centuries ago on it.

And when MDMs were just a secret Manty research project, that makes sense. However, they were the decisive weapons in the final battlese of the First Havenite War seven years ago. And were thrown around in immense numbers by both sides in the Second Havenite War. They could easily be skeptical of exact performance numbers, but not realizing Manticore had made some major improvements in missile tech at the end of the first war, and that Haven had largely matched it by the second... I don't think even the SLN would have failed to notice it without active Alignment meddling.

drothgery wrote:
And when MDMs were just a secret Manty research project, that makes sense. However, they were the decisive weapons in the final battlese of the First Havenite War seven years ago. And were thrown around in immense numbers by both sides in the Second Havenite War. They could easily be skeptical of exact performance numbers, but not realizing Manticore had made some major improvements in missile tech at the end of the first war, and that Haven had largely matched it by the second... I don't think even the SLN would have failed to notice it without active Alignment meddling.

That would be like outsiders ignoring the growth of the Iranian rocket and nuclear programs. The evidence is there. But if people don't want to see it, they can be wiped from memory.

In the case of Manticoran missiles, there are a whole lot of developments that have been ignored. Remember that MAlign knows about them. But they've kept the mandarins and the navy from knowing about it.

I would guess that the big shots in the navy might very well survive the whole mess just as modern generals and admirals do. Actually they're in better position because of the Sollie politics.

Of course, if the mandarins need human sacrifice, they will wind up getting rid of all of them and place all the blame on the navy.

drothgery wrote:And when MDMs were just a secret Manty research project, that makes sense. However, they were the decisive weapons in the final battlese of the First Havenite War seven years ago. And were thrown around in immense numbers by both sides in the Second Havenite War. They could easily be skeptical of exact performance numbers, but not realizing Manticore had made some major improvements in missile tech at the end of the first war, and that Haven had largely matched it by the second... I don't think even the SLN would have failed to notice it without active Alignment meddling.

They DID have reports from the SDF observers. They had even gotten to Bygn. They determined the reports were absurd. Plus MDM were impossible. Its possible the Alignment encouraged that interpretation.

It would be like if Manticore had reports or news articles that a random Solly nation had spherical impeller wedges and could fire through them. It would be reasonable to disregard those reports.

ldwechsler wrote:

drothgery wrote:
And when MDMs were just a secret Manty research project, that makes sense. However, they were the decisive weapons in the final battlese of the First Havenite War seven years ago. And were thrown around in immense numbers by both sides in the Second Havenite War. They could easily be skeptical of exact performance numbers, but not realizing Manticore had made some major improvements in missile tech at the end of the first war, and that Haven had largely matched it by the second... I don't think even the SLN would have failed to notice it without active Alignment meddling.

That would be like outsiders ignoring the growth of the Iranian rocket and nuclear programs. The evidence is there. But if people don't want to see it, they can be wiped from memory.

In the case of Manticoran missiles, there are a whole lot of developments that have been ignored. Remember that MAlign knows about them. But they've kept the mandarins and the navy from knowing about it.

I would guess that the big shots in the navy might very well survive the whole mess just as modern generals and admirals do. Actually they're in better position because of the Sollie politics.

Of course, if the mandarins need human sacrifice, they will wind up getting rid of all of them and place all the blame on the navy.

I strongly suspect that the Mandarins will be the human sacrifice.

The Alignment has several reasons for not passing along anything of what it has learned about Manticore and Haven weapons and tactics to the SLN from any source or conduit. First amoung those is to keep the SL right where it is in terms of weapons, tactics, doctrine, and mindset. These are the people the Alignment wasn't to shatter and kill as any kind of effective leadership and defensive (or offensive) force vs the RF and against the Alignment Navy.

A second would be to avoid the possible jump-start of new research and development in the SL that could be suggested and shown things are possible based on now knowing things exist and not only try to copy them but explore and understand the way they operate. Like Grayson going off with different approch to compensators or using fission rather than fusion powerplants for relativly small things like LACs.

quite possibly a cat wrote:They DID have reports from the SDF observers. They had even gotten to Bygn. They determined the reports were absurd. Plus MDM were impossible. Its possible the Alignment encouraged that interpretation.

It would be like if Manticore had reports or news articles that a random Solly nation had spherical impeller wedges and could fire through them. It would be reasonable to disregard those reports.

ldwechsler wrote:



That would be like outsiders ignoring the growth of the Iranian rocket and nuclear programs. The evidence is there. But if people don't want to see it, they can be wiped from memory.

In the case of Manticoran missiles, there are a whole lot of developments that have been ignored. Remember that MAlign knows about them. But they've kept the mandarins and the navy from knowing about it.

I would guess that the big shots in the navy might very well survive the whole mess just as modern generals and admirals do. Actually they're in better position because of the Sollie politics.

Of course, if the mandarins need human sacrifice, they will wind up getting rid of all of them and place all the blame on the navy.

I strongly suspect that the Mandarins will be the human sacrifice.

I think that at least one or two of the mandarins will go but "cleaning up" naval intelligence will be the first sacrifice. After all, there already are people looking over records. If they get to the top people, the treason of the MAlign agents can be repaid. Although I would bet they'd never get all of them. Gweon, for example, is coming in and critical of them.

I wonder if MAlign is planning to make certain there will be a sacrifice. If the naval officers seem to be merely corrupt agents of Mesa, their arrests and confessions could help bring more confusion to the navy. That could be useful.

And OTHER agents of MAlign could be the ones to take them down.

Might not have been Byng we saw it with, but there's definitely been at least a few intelligence reports circulating among Solly Admirals, that grav-pulse comms and MDM's are/were possible.

There was a whole lot of CYA hedging, with size-this, and power-that but the scientists concluded it was impossible with anything below the wall. And that even wallers would have trouble fitting grav-pulse AND meaningful armaments in. And that it was possible that waller missiles might be able to squeeze a second drive, but three is definitely impossible and obvious lies, anyone who squeezes three drives is using system-defense missiles and not ship-launched.

That's why when Filareta heard about Crandall, he simply assumed Manticore managed to scrape up system-defense pods, despite the whole surprise attack that later gets called Yawata Strike. And even the Mandarins figured there simply HAD to be wallers Manticore wasn't admitting were there for intimidation. Because obviously by suggesting RMN cruisers could go toe-to-toe with wallers is hyperbole, everybody knows cruisers run away from wallers.... right?

Somtaaw wrote:
That's why when Filareta heard about Crandall, he simply assumed Manticore managed to scrape up system-defense pods, despite the whole surprise attack that later gets called Yawata Strike. And even the Mandarins figured there simply HAD to be wallers Manticore wasn't admitting were there for intimidation. Because obviously by suggesting RMN cruisers could go toe-to-toe with wallers is hyperbole, everybody knows cruisers run away from wallers.... right?

It's important to note that Filarta was not wrong. Crandall had run into s pile of system defense pods. He was wrong in that the Cruisers were the firecontrol for said system.

But he was right in that whatever it was which was used on Crandall wasn't portable. Sag-Cs can only carry 40 pods before their accel starts to degrade, so 12 Sag-Cs can only invade a system with a single salvo of 4800 missiles, then another follow-up with 1440 missiles every 54 seconds.

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:It is a big mistake to assume that because a small number of people within an organization know (or suspect) something, that the organization as a whole would actually be able to act as if it knew that thing.

A specific case in point. In the summer of 1990, the overwhelming consensus of US intelligence analysts was that Saddam Hussein would not invade Kuwait. There was a small group at the CIA and DoD that was convinced otherwise, but they were unable to get a fair hearing until hours before the tanks were rolling.

To expand on my earlier example, if a US military attache in Chile forwarded reports that the Chilean Air Force had an aircraft that could fly at Mach 30, with a 20,000 km range, and could take off and land vertically I very much doubt that report would be given much credence in Washington DC.

Pardon my bold to call attention.

I'm really hearing what you're saying here, at the human level. It is the human element again, that I rant on, and on and on about.

It is akin to my parents saying "Look me in the eye, so I can know you heard and understand me." It is difficult to set your entire cabinet and military apparatus in their seats and tell them to look you in the eye so you can get a hard read on whether they are actually getting it. It is hard to know if everyone gets it. Teachers suffer from this problem too. It is even much harder for everyone down the line to sit everyone else down and make sure they get it too. And on and on. Besides, "We are the mighty Solarian League. It'll work itself out. It always does."

"Well, what exactly does it mean that their missiles have more range? We've got more missiles. And more ships."

" It means that the Manties can blow our asses up. Right along with our ships and missiles, you nitwit!"

Even with all of the facts on paper right in front of them and even if they knew that they can somehow trust all of it as facts, there would still be many Solarians who would digest the information incorrectly. "Longer range means nothing against a much bigger foe once we get inside their reach." Akin to a bruising boxer up against a taller foe with a much longer reach.

"FTL and stealth mean nothing. So what, you can see us before we see you. We are big and mighty."

Americans feel insulated by the power of its military. It'd be really hard to kill that same institutional arrogance that even we Americans have.

When the SLN attacked the Manty home system, they might have been able to do some serious damage if they had known what they were facing and sent Tamaguchi. AND, if they had been able to manage AT LEAST A LITTLE OPSEC! Even the lost city of yore, found by the Havenites, probably knew they were coming and they don't even have contact with humanity!

Can anyone remember how their Operation Raging Justice was broadcast to the galaxy? If a military can't even keep its own war plans secret, how much aptitude is it liable to display at gathering intel? Even without Malignant meddling?

IOW, how can they even hope to have any success at gathering intel, when they can't even keep the lid on their own intel!

cthia wrote:

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:It is a big mistake to assume that because a small number of people within an organization know (or suspect) something, that the organization as a whole would actually be able to act as if it knew that thing.

A specific case in point. In the summer of 1990, the overwhelming consensus of US intelligence analysts was that Saddam Hussein would not invade Kuwait. There was a small group at the CIA and DoD that was convinced otherwise, but they were unable to get a fair hearing until hours before the tanks were rolling.

To expand on my earlier example, if a US military attache in Chile forwarded reports that the Chilean Air Force had an aircraft that could fly at Mach 30, with a 20,000 km range, and could take off and land vertically I very much doubt that report would be given much credence in Washington DC.

Pardon my bold to call attention.

I'm really hearing what you're saying here, at the human level. It is the human element again, that I rant on, and on and on about.

It is akin to my parents saying "Look me in the eye, so I can know you heard and understand me." It is difficult to set your entire cabinet and military apparatus in their seats and tell them to look you in the eye so you can get a hard read on whether they are actually getting it. It is hard to know if everyone gets it. Teachers suffer from this problem too. It is even much harder for everyone down the line to sit everyone else down and make sure they get it too. And on and on. Besides, "We are the mighty Solarian League. It'll work itself out. It always does."

"Well, what exactly does it mean that their missiles have more range? We've got more missiles. And more ships."

" It means that the Manties can blow our asses up. Right along with our ships and missiles, you nitwit!"

Even with all of the facts on paper right in front of them and even if they knew that they can somehow trust all of it as facts, there would still be many Solarians who would digest the information incorrectly. "Longer range means nothing against a much bigger foe once we get inside their reach." Akin to a bruising boxer up against a taller foe with a much longer reach.

"FTL and stealth mean nothing. So what, you can see us before we see you. We are big and mighty."

Americans feel insulated by the power of its military. It'd be really hard to kill that same institutional arrogance that even we Americans have.

When the SLN attacked the Manty home system, they might have been able to do some serious damage if they had known what they were facing and sent Tamaguchi. AND, if they had been able to manage AT LEAST A LITTLE OPSEC! Even the lost city of yore, found by the Havenites, probably knew they were coming and they don't even have contact with humanity!

Can anyone remember how their Operation Raging Justice was broadcast to the galaxy? If a military can't even keep its own war plans secret, how much aptitude is it liable to display at gathering intel? Even without Malignant meddling?

I don't think you could really blame the flight itself. While they don't specifically say who the mole/source is, Beowulf clearly has highly placed sources within the SLN. Since Beowulf is a part of the SL it's not surprising the information was available. We also don't even know where it was leaked. It may have nothing to do with the Military. Anyone of the Manderins' areas could have been the leak. OpSec is great to say but most countries have a ton of issues with it these days especially with modern cellular phones.

Even without Beowulf tipping them off I think it is unlikely the coalescing of so many SLN SDs fairly close to the SEM would have gone unnoticed. Especially given the lack of SLN exercises held that far from the core. I agree that Beowulf providing the plans made it easier to conduct the grand fleet ambush, but on the flip side I think more of the SLN fleet would have been destroyed when they ran into the system defense pods in the SEM didn't know the specific date the SLN was supposed to arrive.