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Remaining holes in SLN intel

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:01 pm

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The thing that is shocking, is that if the idiots didn't have an ONI, they wouldn't be any worse off.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by kzt   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:59 pm

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cthia wrote:The thing that is shocking, is that if the idiots didn't have an ONI, they wouldn't be any worse off.

They would be better off.

But the US Navy would have been better off without the official assessments of the IJN as of Dec 6, 1941.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by quite possibly a cat   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:14 pm

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:The thing that is shocking, is that if the idiots didn't have an ONI, they wouldn't be any worse off.

They would be better off.

They would be much better off. If they didn't have ONI they would need to rely on the SDF reports. Which were accurate.

On that note, their raw intel isn't really all that bad. The problem is in "analysis". They've concluded that their intel sources are giving inaccurate data! If they can get it through their heads the data is accurate, they can re-analyze it and get a decent idea of Manty abilities.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Maldorian   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:26 am

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I didn´t own the books of the rising of Manticore, but shouldn´t have some Sollies an eye on Manticore, looking out for a chance the get that lovley whormhole junction in their hands?

The normal tactic of Frontier Fleet to get the hands on a planet is to stop a war at a planet. Manticore was in war. Shouldn´t be someone at FF looking out for the right time for a visit from FF?

If are agents in the Manticore system during the war they should hear a lot about wartecnology improvments.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by kzt   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:30 am

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Really? You want the SLN to pay attention to neobarbs? Really?
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:54 am

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kzt wrote:Really? You want the SLN to pay attention to neobarbs? Really?

Like Spartans spying on Neanderthals for tools and tactics.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Eagleeye   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:00 am

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Maldorian wrote:I didn´t own the books of the rising of Manticore, but shouldn´t have some Sollies an eye on Manticore, looking out for a chance the get that lovley whormhole junction in their hands?

The normal tactic of Frontier Fleet to get the hands on a planet is to stop a war at a planet. Manticore was in war. Shouldn´t be someone at FF looking out for the right time for a visit from FF?

If are agents in the Manticore system during the war they should hear a lot about wartecnology improvments.


Until 1585 P.D., the year the Manticore Wormhole Junction was finally discovered, Manticore was too far away from Old Terra and simply too unimportant. Only one of the many new colonies with more dreams than money. By the way, the SL at that time wasn't as corrupt and vile as its successor 350 T-years down the road and the Permanent Senior Undersecretaries (or their predecessors) had at least nodding acquaintances to honest man and women.

After 1585, the MWJ doesn't seem so much different from the other Junctions (iIrc, it seem to have only 3 termini, one of them to Beowulf - and Beowulf at that time already was something like the keeper of human sanity and had definitely more clout regarding the decision making processes of the League as in later times). Besides, Haven was still the Old Republic and a friendly neighbour for the Star Kingdom.

Only after the discovery, that the MWJ was the biggest one so far detected in human space, the Solarian League started to smell the coffee, but at this time Manticore had 1st) a fleet big enough to give even the Solarian League something to think about and 2nd) enough diplomatic power in the League itself (and enough friends there, like Beowulf). So, any attack against Manticore had the potential for a real big conflict - with Haven and Beowulf both safely in Manticore's corner.

So, the only chance to change the timeline was, as Axelrod of Terra tried to conquer Manticore and failed.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Fox2!   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:36 am

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Eagleeye wrote:
So, the only chance to change the timeline was, as Axelrod of Terra tried to conquer Manticore and failed.


And Axelrod was the only one who had even an inkling of the existence of a single wormhole, never mind the MWJ.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Somtaaw   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:04 pm

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Eagleeye wrote:[Only after the discovery, that the MWJ was the biggest one so far detected in human space, the Solarian League started to smell the coffee, but at this time Manticore had 1st) a fleet big enough to give even the Solarian League something to think about and 2nd) enough diplomatic power in the League itself (and enough friends there, like Beowulf). So, any attack against Manticore had the potential for a real big conflict - with Haven and Beowulf both safely in Manticore's corner.

So, the only chance to change the timeline was, as Axelrod of Terra tried to conquer Manticore and failed.



Fleet size was hardly a source of making the League pause. The League 'knew' Manticore had around 300 superdreadnoughts when the Yawata Strike happened, and yet they still thought they could win through conquest. And this is after Manticore proved it's, at the very minimum a tiny neobarb nation capable of fighting another much larger neobarb nation for almost a T-Century, if you include the cold war leading upto the hot war starting in OBS.


Backtracking ~200-250 years, before Manticore proved it was a very smart nation by fighting off the larger PRH, and having either no wallers at all, or surplus/export SLN wallers... the League would have laughed and dispatched a single task force to claim it as a protectorate.


The biggest defense was Beowulf, and that Manticore had shown no signs at all of being expansionist, aside from it's merchant marine. The League had no way to 'spin' Manticore being aggressive to fly all those light-years until the New Tuscany incident.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by saber964   » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:08 pm

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:The thing that is shocking, is that if the idiots didn't have an ONI, they wouldn't be any worse off.

They would be better off.

But the US Navy would have been better off without the official assessments of the IJN as of Dec 6, 1941.



No, the IJN went to extraordinary lengths to disguise the attack force including removing Morse code operators. The radiomen were left in Japan to send false messages while the attack group had disconnected the transmitters. FYI you could identify MCO's by there keying style e.g. the MCO on the Kaga had the nickname of leadfoot because he sounded like he keyed with his foot and another was known as speedy for his style.
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