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Honorverse ramblings and musings

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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by ldwechsler   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:07 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Brigade XO,

I think you're right that the SLN has had a hard time recognizing the alliance LAC's as part of the layered defense, and given Tamaguchi only saw them when they wanted to be seen, implies that less capable SLN commanders and their staffs would miss them entirely unless the alliance are so obliging.

It was some eleven years ago that I and some others at the bar wondered what missiles cost and the production rate, suggesting that producing 5-10,000 missiles per day at 5-10 M$ million each would exceed even the SKM's wealth.

His Celeryness responded by pointing out the missiles were literally dirt cheap, made from asteroids etc, with all the production equipment [nanites etc] being amortized over tens if not hundreds of millions etc, so the actual unit cost was only a million or two, even for an Apollo eventually.

It then implies that CM's are proportionally less, perhaps in the M$ 100-200,000 range; so the 'Barricade' missiles were far more efficient than CM's not less, which required 432 CM's to kill just 58 [the worst RMN CM performance ever], or almost 7.5 for each kill, so the 'Barricade' missiles were more than 180 times as effective, ie perhaps 18+ more times cost effective.

Was it Honor or Mike who was thinking about how clever Scotty and Horace had been?

It will still take a time to pass the tactic along.

Best belated Christmas wishes to all, and a happy new year! :D

L


Brigade XO wrote:The SLN also has the difficulty of probably not seeing the LACs being used in the CM role and are making some estimates based on seeing CMs showing up well outside- and intercepting- SLN missles- along with the earlier information on probable RMN CM capabilities . Remember, the current generation RMN LACs are very difficult to track for SLN and while they still do need to stay out of the fireing solutions profiles for the anti-ship missles on both sides, they are going to be launching CMs into that volume of space.
The SLN might be thinking that RMN and RHN have what appear to be at least limited ultra-long range CM capability when what is actualy happening is a layed defence using those stealthy LACs as antimissile platforms.
Remember, nobody or essentialy nobody who was engaged and survived on the SLN side in the recent battles has gotten back to tell what they saw and although Manticore has released some sensor logs, they aren't going to be providing all the interesting tiny details like custers of CMs appearing way out in front of the RMN/RHN ships to start picking of SLN missiles. Someone is going to have to either say something like the intercepts tracks looked odd or note and correlate CM groups that seem to come in from the side or steep angle "in-front" of SLN missile volleys.
If you can't see the impeller track of some missle with something like a CM canister, you might guess that these things were being launched as part of a regular RMN anti-ship volley into the flight path of the SLN weapons and included a significant ballistic component before dispursing the CMs with seeker heads. Makes a much sense as invisable LACs being sent out on balisitic courses where they could be inside the intercept profile of the SLN missles. These are crazy neo-barbs, they could send LACs on Forlorn Hope missions such as gliding up the incomming attack vector to shoot at the SLN missles and pray none of the attack missiles locked up on something so small.


Note that even at Spindle, there were about 20,000 missiles fired, which let's just say (to make my math easier) would be about 20 billion dollars.

In return, they got probably 100 ships captured. As I recall from early books, they pay a bonus for them. That could well be larger than the cost of missiles.

Even at the Second Battle of Manticore, the cost were very large but these kinds of battles are pretty rare. And in that case it was the survival of the nation at stake.

The US, which represents a fairly small percentage of the earth's population, spends about a half billion or so on its military. A three (later four) planet nation could spend more.
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by Theemile   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:39 am

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ldwechsler wrote:


Note that even at Spindle, there were about 20,000 missiles fired, which let's just say (to make my math easier) would be about 20 billion dollars.

In return, they got probably 100 ships captured. As I recall from early books, they pay a bonus for them. That could well be larger than the cost of missiles.

Even at the Second Battle of Manticore, the cost were very large but these kinds of battles are pretty rare. And in that case it was the survival of the nation at stake.

The US, which represents a fairly small percentage of the earth's population, spends about a half billion or so on its military. A three (later four) planet nation could spend more.

The US spends 1/2 a Trillion dollars on the military. A billion disappears into one of dozens if programs easily.

Manticore only pays crews the value of the captured ship if the captured ship is taken into service. They may get paid salvage rates (<<less) for the captures if not, but that is not much money, especially over several dozen crews.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by cthia   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:15 pm

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Still dangling...


Regarding firing CMs off-bore. How exactly is that accomplished? Wouldn't the off-bore launch have to have a much lower acceleration? Which relegates the "normal" broadside to a delayed launch so they support each other?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by Weird Harold   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:31 pm

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cthia wrote:Regarding firing CMs off-bore. How exactly is that accomplished? Wouldn't the off-bore launch have to have a much lower acceleration?


Firing "off bore" just means the missiles are more maneuverable and can turn enough that they can go in any direction after being fired.

There may be a bit of velocity loss, but the missiles will accelerate the same 92K Gs no matter what the direction. How much velocity loss is a problem for vector mathematics, but acceleration is a constant.

FWIW, off-bore launches seem to be at 90 degrees to the line to the target; on broadside turns 90 degrees left, the other 90 degrees right so both start at the same velocity towards the target.
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:34 pm

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cthia wrote:Still dangling...


Regarding firing CMs off-bore. How exactly is that accomplished? Wouldn't the off-bore launch have to have a much lower acceleration? Which relegates the "normal" broadside to a delayed launch so they support each other?

From what little RFC has said off-bore missile tech is mostly circuitry that can handle the vector change combined with software to let the missile do a bit more off of pre-loaded commands before the control link with the ship is established.

Echoes of Honor wrote:recent improvements in seekers, molycircs that can handle higher-grav vector shifts, and a higher acceptable delay between launch and shipboard fire control's hand-off to the missile's on-board systems, will let them fire effectively at up to a hundred and twenty degrees off bore.


If you look at the missile numbers the actual velocity added by the missile launcher is negligible. Every missile max range and velocity number I've seen in the books matches withing a rounding error of what you'd expect from the missile's acceleration time from a standing start. IOW whatever velocity the launcher is imparting is effectively indistinguishable from zero.

So the fact that the missile has to use up as much a 1 second of acceleration to clear the wedge before snapping onto its final vector isn't going to create a big reduction in range or terminal velocity. (For a Mk31 CM it'd be about a 2.6% impact to range, about about 1.3% impact to max velocity. But given that Manticore doesn't really use the outer 20% of its range due to crappy intercept percentages...)



At one point I'd wondered whether a tractor beam was used to pivot the missile around, to conserve the momentum imparted by the launcher but RFC said no, off bore is all in the missile.
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by DaveB63   » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:18 pm

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cthia wrote:Still dangling...


Regarding firing CMs off-bore. How exactly is that accomplished? Wouldn't the off-bore launch have to have a much lower acceleration? Which relegates the "normal" broadside to a delayed launch so they support each other?


current-tech analogue...

In early versions of the SM2 missile employed by the US Navy's Aegis system, missiles emerged from the magazines onto launch rails which were then pointed in the general direction of the target before firing. These systems were developed for missiles that did not have enough maneuverability to turn and acquire their targets if they were not pointed at approximately the right bit of sky before lighting 'em off. These systems can still be used to fire current missiles that do have that capability but for the earlier versions they were essential.

Current versions are launched from vertical launch cells and can orient on and acquire a threat approaching on any azimuth rapidly enough that they don't need to be pointed at it first.

off-bore fire is exactly the same developments in missile capability as demonstrated by the evolution of the Aegis system from its initial inception to its current state, just with impeller drives not solid-fuel rockets and as such is something completely consistent with RFCs track record in worldbuilding and avoiding the gratuitous deus ex machina and "Oh darn. Quick! Have the science officer or the engineer break out the handwavium or we're toast!"
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by cthia   » Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:42 am

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DaveB63 wrote:
cthia wrote:Still dangling...


Regarding firing CMs off-bore. How exactly is that accomplished? Wouldn't the off-bore launch have to have a much lower acceleration? Which relegates the "normal" broadside to a delayed launch so they support each other?


current-tech analogue...

In early versions of the SM2 missile employed by the US Navy's Aegis system, missiles emerged from the magazines onto launch rails which were then pointed in the general direction of the target before firing. These systems were developed for missiles that did not have enough maneuverability to turn and acquire their targets if they were not pointed at approximately the right bit of sky before lighting 'em off. These systems can still be used to fire current missiles that do have that capability but for the earlier versions they were essential.

Current versions are launched from vertical launch cells and can orient on and acquire a threat approaching on any azimuth rapidly enough that they don't need to be pointed at it first.

off-bore fire is exactly the same developments in missile capability as demonstrated by the evolution of the Aegis system from its initial inception to its current state, just with impeller drives not solid-fuel rockets and as such is something completely consistent with RFCs track record in worldbuilding and avoiding the gratuitous deus ex machina and "Oh darn. Quick! Have the science officer or the engineer break out the handwavium or we're toast!"


From the location of the missile launchers, courtesy of MaxxQ, that doesn't seem plausible. The much larger Honorverse missiles have to clear the much larger external dimensions of Honorverse ships before reversing direction -- at least in consideration of reversing direction.

Also, my post was a bit unclear err inaccurate. There is a difference in net acceleration per unit time of the two broadsides. The off-bore launch has a negative acceleration of one vector component, which is momentarily, quite possibly, opposite the target.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:48 am

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cthia wrote:From the location of the missile launchers, courtesy of MaxxQ, that doesn't seem plausible. The much larger Honorverse missiles have to clear the much larger external dimensions of Honorverse ships before reversing direction -- at least in consideration of reversing direction.

Also, my post was a bit unclear err inaccurate. There is a difference in net acceleration per unit time of the two broadsides. The off-bore launch has a negative acceleration of one vector component, which is momentarily, quite possibly, opposite the target.



Most off-bore launches won't require one broadside to turn 180 degrees. The "normal" profile will require a 90-100 degree turn to roughly the same bearing the ship is traveling. Or both broadsides will turn ~90 degrees towards the keel or top of the ship.

The scenario you are figuring on will be the least likely use of off-bore capability. It is also the closest to a spinning double broadside where one launch is activation delayed until the second broadside bears on the target; a tactic that still can be used if off-bore launch geometry induces unacceptable velocity differentials.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:56 am

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cthia wrote:From the location of the missile launchers, courtesy of MaxxQ, that doesn't seem plausible. The much larger Honorverse missiles have to clear the much larger external dimensions of Honorverse ships before reversing direction -- at least in consideration of reversing direction.

Also, my post was a bit unclear err inaccurate. There is a difference in net acceleration per unit time of the two broadsides. The off-bore launch has a negative acceleration of one vector component, which is momentarily, quite possibly, opposite the target.

In that worst case, 180° off bore, as Weird Harold said the facing launchers would most likely use delayed start to synchronize the salvos.

The worst case missile that might be used for this backwards firing attack would be a single drive extended range missile (ERM/LERM). The common ones of those have a 75/225 second burn (though I think the RMN's is better, but we'll got with the 225 at half power for the calculation).

1 second of burn away gets the missile out to 230 km away from the enemy, more than enough to clear the wedge. Another 0.75 seconds burning vertically will add 129 km of elevation, coming above (or below) the wedge. By this point the missile has moved 575 km away from the enemy. It'll take 2.871 seconds accelerating back towards the target to make up that distance.

But call it a total of 6 seconds lost, to allow for turning times and killing the vertical vector. The missile will have a net velocity of 861 kps towards the enemy when it passes the launching ship, and the remaining 219 seconds on its drive will let it reach 11,219,515 km, with 101,601 kps terminal velocity.

That little U-turn cost it 3.6% of its range and 1.8% of its terminal velocity. [11,219,515 km @ 101,601 kps vs 11,643,750 km @ 103,500 kps]. The missiles launched directly towards the enemy would need to delay spinning up their drives about 4.2 seconds in order to synchronize the 2 halves of the salvo.


The longer the missile's powered endurance the lower, proportional, the impact of 6 second U-turn would be. However even in this worst case scenario it seems well worth paying a few percent reduction in range to double the size of a salvo. (And, if you wanted less impact, you could point your nose or tail at the target so both broadsides need just a 90° turn)
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Re: Honorverse ramblings and musings
Post by cthia   » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:31 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:
cthia wrote:From the location of the missile launchers, courtesy of MaxxQ, that doesn't seem plausible. The much larger Honorverse missiles have to clear the much larger external dimensions of Honorverse ships before reversing direction -- at least in consideration of reversing direction.

Also, my post was a bit unclear err inaccurate. There is a difference in net acceleration per unit time of the two broadsides. The off-bore launch has a negative acceleration of one vector component, which is momentarily, quite possibly, opposite the target.

In that worst case, 180° off bore, as Weird Harold said the facing launchers would most likely use delayed start to synchronize the salvos.

The worst case missile that might be used for this backwards firing attack would be a single drive extended range missile (ERM/LERM). The common ones of those have a 75/225 second burn (though I think the RMN's is better, but we'll got with the 225 at half power for the calculation).

1 second of burn away gets the missile out to 230 km away from the enemy, more than enough to clear the wedge. Another 0.75 seconds burning vertically will add 129 km of elevation, coming above (or below) the wedge. By this point the missile has moved 575 km away from the enemy. It'll take 2.871 seconds accelerating back towards the target to make up that distance.

But call it a total of 6 seconds lost, to allow for turning times and killing the vertical vector. The missile will have a net velocity of 861 kps towards the enemy when it passes the launching ship, and the remaining 219 seconds on its drive will let it reach 11,219,515 km, with 101,601 kps terminal velocity.

That little U-turn cost it 3.6% of its range and 1.8% of its terminal velocity. [11,219,515 km @ 101,601 kps vs 11,643,750 km @ 103,500 kps]. The missiles launched directly towards the enemy would need to delay spinning up their drives about 4.2 seconds in order to synchronize the 2 halves of the salvo.


The longer the missile's powered endurance the lower, proportional, the impact of 6 second U-turn would be. However even in this worst case scenario it seems well worth paying a few percent reduction in range to double the size of a salvo. (And, if you wanted less impact, you could point your nose or tail at the target so both broadsides need just a 90° turn)

Well yes, as per my original question, a delay seems intuitive.

For the sake of accuracy, I suppose it should be mentioned that a ship's damage, or time constraints, may inhibit maneuvering for optimum firing arcs. Firing at multiple targets whose positions are invariably different may require many angles of off-bore launches as well.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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