The way Duchairn’s salvaging the Church...

I think I disagree. Dohlar is too small geographically and has too many people for the agricultural sector to be as dominate as you seem to be assuming. Wealth creation is going to depend on trade and manufacturing. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Dohlar is a net importer of food. Finally, Dohlar has just had the experience of being trounced by a country more industrially developed than itself.

All in all, I suspect that the agricultural interests are going to find themselves in a weaker position than they were prior to the war... and unable dictate the national agenda.

Don

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Disagreement is the stuff of a good discussion.

I seem to recall that industry was no more dominant in Dohlar prior to the jihad than industry was in any other mainland nation. That tells me that they could not produce anything in quantity at a markedly lower cost than the prospective importing nations could produce themselves. Dohlar was trying to become a shipping hub not an industrial one. Given their central location, this makes sense. Since they were not demonstrably more productive industrially prior to the jihad, their current advanced state came from adopting Charisian innovations and those innovations the developed during the jihad.

This argues that Dohlar was agriculturally driven economically just like any other mainland nation. Their support for the CoGA argues that they are more traditional than any of the island nations. Island nations that still practiced serfdom, like Chisholm and Northern Corisande. Where both Chisholm and Corisande was forcibly driven by Charis to abolish serfdom, Dohlar doesn't have anything so immediate to compell such a change. Heck, their fundemental conservatism would argue their adoption of industry will be a measured one.

PeterZ wrote:Disagreement is the stuff of a good discussion.

I seem to recall that industry was no more dominant in Dohlar prior to the jihad than industry was in any other mainland nation. That tells me that they could not produce anything in quantity at a markedly lower cost than the prospective importing nations could produce themselves. Dohlar was trying to become a shipping hub not an industrial one. Given their central location, this makes sense. Since they were not demonstrably more productive industrially prior to the jihad, their current advanced state came from adopting Charisian innovations and those innovations the developed during the jihad.

This argues that Dohlar was agriculturally driven economically just like any other mainland nation. Their support for the CoGA argues that they are more traditional than any of the island nations. Island nations that still practiced serfdom, like Chisholm and Northern Corisande. Where both Chisholm and Corisande was forcibly driven by Charis to abolish serfdom, Dohlar doesn't have anything so immediate to compell such a change. Heck, their fundemental conservatism would argue their adoption of industry will be a measured one.

Several presuppositions to think about here. First, how agriculturally driven were they prior to the war? Look at a map. Compared to the other mainland powers, they are very small. Yet, at the same time, they have lots of people...89,000,000 of them iirc. That is very similar in number to the Temple lands, about 60% as many as Siddarmark. Hence Dohlar's interest in trade. I don't know what Dohlar was producing to pay for its imports but the point is they must have been doing something because the land area doesn't seem large enough to support that many people without a significant manufacturing sector.

Secondly, how conservative was Dohlar, really. We do know that Clyntahn was suspicious of Dohlar because of its commercial ambitions seemed to be to imitate Charis. Yes, Dohlar did support the COGA. But so did everybody else. Even Charis and Siddarmark supported the COGA before they were attacked so that doesn't seem to me to be a very reliable mark of conservatism.

Finally, I find myself thinking that Dohlar is poised to become the West Germany of Safehold in the aftermath of the war. It looks to me that they are best poised to recover and prosper. A key to that will be good governance in Gorath given Thirsk's role as first minister and regent.

Don

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n7axw wrote:Several presuppositions to think about here. First, how agriculturally driven were they prior to the war? Look at a map. Compared to the other mainland powers, they are very small. Yet, at the same time, they have lots of people...89,000,000 of them iirc. That is very similar in number to the Temple lands, about 60% as many as Siddarmark. Hence Dohlar's interest in trade. I don't know what Dohlar was producing to pay for its imports but the point is they must have been doing something because the land area doesn't seem large enough to support that many people without a significant manufacturing sector.

Secondly, how conservative was Dohlar, really. We do know that Clyntahn was suspicious of Dohlar because of its commercial ambitions seemed to be to imitate Charis. Yes, Dohlar did support the COGA. But so did everybody else. Even Charis and Siddarmark supported the COGA before they were attacked so that doesn't seem to me to be a very reliable mark of conservatism.

Finally, I find myself thinking that Dohlar is poised to become the West Germany of Safehold in the aftermath of the war. It looks to me that they are best poised to recover and prosper. A key to that will be good governance in Gorath given Thirsk's role as first minister and regent.

Don-

Dohlar is about as large as the US East of the Mississippi, perhaps slightly larger. At 90 million people Dohlar is 17% more populated than the entire US as of 1900. We know that Safehold is more efficient agriculturally than Earth was because of gengeneered crops. Draft dragons allowed for transportation efficiencies comparable to WWI or early WWII trucks. So there was more labor outside of the agriculture sector than would have been the case on earth before the Industrial Revolution.

Dohlar's location and geography makes it the transshipment hub for almost everything headed for the Border Kingdoms or Siddermark coming from Howard. They are also the secondary route for everything from West Harchong's Southern coast headed to the Border Kingdoms and Siddermark. Materials flow both ways. Most of what is shipped is raw materials or semi-finished goods like cloth as every nation has used the guild system to make finished goods.

All those raw materials require a great deal of labor to move, since the use of power was very limited. All the lumber, ore, bolts of cloth, bales of cotton, wool, cotton silk, iron, tin bronze, cocoa, cherry bean and the finished goods like wine and liquor are all moved by muscle power. Dohlar is not a land of industry prior to the jihad, it was a land of stevedores. I got that from how Ahlvarez organized the logistics of his army. That demand for labor already competes for the labor used in growing food on land and catching food along the coast.

Now, when the industrial revolution really kicks in Dohlar will automate their transshipping operations and introduce steam power where ever they can. That will save massive amounts of labor for industry. There won't be an immediate need for the abolition of serfdom. The border duchies of Dohlar will be rebuilding after the Siddermarkian invasion. Siddermark will be getting reparations from everyone that attacked it to help it rebuild. The Crown of Dohlar will be stretched thin trying to rebuild the infrastructure (canals and roads) and the military Charis thoroughly destroyed. Where will Dohlarans find the wealth to invest in the new machinery? Heck, they will be pressed to rebuild their infrastructure, let alone invest in novelties.

Those elements of Dohlar that would be most likely to borrow from Charisian loan-krakens swimming in those enclaves are the service providers, like the transhippers. Their entire business revolves around providing a service. They have relatively little assets beyond warehouses. They hire people to move things and charge a fee for doing so. Given the reconstruction going on, they will be busy. Borrowing from Charis is a low risk proposition for them. That's especially true if the terms are good and the equipment lets them move more things more quickly and with fewer laborers.

So, bottom line is that with the upcoming demand for labor in rebuilding Dohlar and the new occupations arising everywhere, the big land owners will NOT want the abolition of serfdom. They will settle for lending their controlled laborers to the highest bidder, but won't want to lose control of those laborers.

As for the perceived lack of reliability Clyntahn saw in Dohlar, he saw Thirsk as unreliable. Dohlar was fine until Thirsk's success made him the poster boy of Dohlaran naval prowess. That esteem gave Thirsk a level of influence that rivaled the influence generated by the fear of Clyntahn's brutality. Even so, Dohlar remained steadfastly loyal to the Church. Thirsk remained steadfastly loyal to the church, if not the G4. That, I believe was part of what made Thirsk so admired in Dohlar. He was a man of honor and abiding faith in their church. All this suggests to me that Dohlar is indeed a very conservative Kingdom. Not intractably conservative, but conservative enough require a hefty dose of beatings with real world clue sticks to get them to move in a new direction. The Charisian curb stomping suffices for most. The more conservative elements will need a few more beatings yet. Those would be the inland nobility, by the way.

In favor of your point of view, a comment is made that 2/3 of the world's merchandise was carried in Charisian bottoms prior to the jihad. Of that, 2/3 was manufactured in Charis. One of the reasons Rahynald was so easily drawn into the church's net was his jealousy over Charis's success snd desire to get a bigger share of that at Charis expense.

Don

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n7axw wrote:In favor of your point of view, a comment is made that 2/3 of the world's merchandise was carried in Charisian bottoms prior to the jihad. Of that, 2/3 was manufactured in Charis. One of the reasons Rahynald was so easily drawn into the church's net was his jealousy over Charis's success snd desire to get a bigger share of that at Charis expense.

Don

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Don't forget that King Rahnyld IV was also heavily indebted to the CoGA and that one of the levers they used to entice Dohlar into the original attack on Charis was forgiveness on the interest for some of those loans. That only got worse as the Church launched its ship building program and then the Sword of Schueler. We don't know if all of Dohlar's debt (interest and principal) has since been forgiven, especially once the Church's coffers ran dry and it started borrowing from the secular banks and kingdoms. Yet the Church's ability to lend money to the secular realms was one of its most effective, soft-power tools in controlling those realms. Now the Church is itself in debt (and a sovereign debt at that) and if any of Dohlar's debts remain, they are unlikely to forgive them (since they can't afford to). That could give Charis even more leverage in its dealings with Dohlar, in that it could give put more money into the Dohlaran economy, thus allowing Dohlar to repay its debts to the Church faster. If the Dohlaran leadership under Thirsk wants to unburden itself of that debt, Charis could use that to demand that only "free labor" be used in local economy. Within the context of a broader Charisian policy to abolish slavery and serfdom, that would not only make sense but would also make the Church's relationship with Dohlar all the more complicated.

n7axw wrote:In favor of your point of view, a comment is made that 2/3 of the world's merchandise was carried in Charisian bottoms prior to the jihad. Of that, 2/3 was manufactured in Charis. One of the reasons Rahynald was so easily drawn into the church's net was his jealousy over Charis's success snd desire to get a bigger share of that at Charis expense.

Don

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Agreed. However, I believe Rahynald knew he could take the carrying trade, but I don't believe he thought he could gain the manufacturing share from Charis. His tradesmen could not compete with Charisian manufactories on price or quantity....ley alone quality. After the first year of Merlin's suggestions, those advantages skyrocketed. All that was left was the carrying trade to squabble over. With Charis destroyed his fleet was best placed to scoop up the cargo the other nations could not service.

thanatos wrote:

n7axw wrote:In favor of your point of view, a comment is made that 2/3 of the world's merchandise was carried in Charisian bottoms prior to the jihad. Of that, 2/3 was manufactured in Charis. One of the reasons Rahynald was so easily drawn into the church's net was his jealousy over Charis's success snd desire to get a bigger share of that at Charis expense.

Don

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Don't forget that King Rahnyld IV was also heavily indebted to the CoGA and that one of the levers they used to entice Dohlar into the original attack on Charis was forgiveness on the interest for some of those loans. That only got worse as the Church launched its ship building program and then the Sword of Schueler. We don't know if all of Dohlar's debt (interest and principal) has since been forgiven, especially once the Church's coffers ran dry and it started borrowing from the secular banks and kingdoms. Yet the Church's ability to lend money to the secular realms was one of its most effective, soft-power tools in controlling those realms. Now the Church is itself in debt (and a sovereign debt at that) and if any of Dohlar's debts remain, they are unlikely to forgive them (since they can't afford to). That could give Charis even more leverage in its dealings with Dohlar, in that it could give put more money into the Dohlaran economy, thus allowing Dohlar to repay its debts to the Church faster. If the Dohlaran leadership under Thirsk wants to unburden itself of that debt, Charis could use that to demand that only "free labor" be used in local economy. Within the context of a broader Charisian policy to abolish slavery and serfdom, that would not only make sense but would also make the Church's relationship with Dohlar all the more complicated.

Your insights are always appreciated, Thanatos.
Let's see just how nasty RFC will play this. We all know that Siddermark will be looking for reparations from Desnair, Dohlar, the Temple, Harchong and the Border Kingdoms. If I were Sharley and Cayleb, I would encourage Siddermark to be aggressive in their demands. The jihad destroyed vast stretches of Siddermark and needs to be rebuilt almost from scratch.

Now, that poses problems for the Border Kingdoms and Dohlar since a good part of their infrastructure took a beating as well. The Temple can tax the Temple Lands for their share. Harchong is rich enough to just squeeze their merchants down South. Dohlar and the Border Kingsdoms don't have the cash to make large payments. Reparations could well impoverish them.

Now comes the loan-krakens showing their pearly whites. Sharley offers to factor the reparations for Siddermark. Under those conditions, Siddermark acceptes lump sum payments over 1-3 years and Dohlar and the Border Kingdoms can repay Charis over a longer period of time. Depending on the final settlement with Siddermark, she might require Siddermark accept a discount to recieve a lump sum. Sharley can talk to Cayleb and have him charge 0% interest IF the Border Kingdoms and Dohlar allows those enclaves. Otherwise, Charis charges the standard pre-jihad Temple rate and comparable terms. If private citizens wish to further lend to anyone from those enclaves, that's entirely a matter for those private parties. Oh, and the Church of Charis will be conducting services and charitable activities as well.

I am sure the offer can be extended to Desnair as well. The terms will likely be a bit stiffer, but not too much. The abolition of slavery is non-negotiable.

thanatos wrote:In the epilogue of ATSOT, Merlin reflects upon how Duchairn is salvaging the church. I assume he means from a moralistic perspective, because after all the things RFC has written over the last 4-5 books in the series, I find it hard to believe Duchairn will be able to to truly fix all of the problems the CoGA has because of the Jihad. Sure removing, investigating, trying, convicting and punishing all the of Clyntahn's loyalists would likely be deeply satisfying and productive, but I feel that that was the easy part. Duchairn now has to preside over a church that blew all of its monetary reserves on obsolete galleys and then on wooden hulled galleons that Charis managed to sink or capture. Then they started borrowing money from the secular realms, taxing the Temple Lands directly, cutting every extraneous expenditure they had and selling off as much land and real estate as they could and borrowed money in the form of "victory bonds". In short, the Church is up to its eyeballs in debt, is not receiving tithes from any Charisian held territory (most of which are really wealthy at present) or from Siddarmark (from whom they also borrowed money and then repudiated that debt), has a fraught political relationship with the remaining realms under its control and has to contend with the stream of innovations that will continue to come out of Charis (and the need to embrace those innovations if they don't wish to maintain Charisian military and economic supremacy). So why does Merlin think Duchairn's current policies are such a big problem for his agenda?

Let's turn this question around. What is Merlin and the Inner Circle going to do to build trust for their agenda?

It won't be enough to simply destroy the CoGA's credibility. The Inner Circle must present themselves as worthy of trust and yes, faith, when the Great Reveal happens.

So, engaging all the nations with those Enclaves, financing the reparation debt to Siddermark for the loyalist nations, fighting for the abolition of slavery and serfdom, engaging in charitable activities, engaging in education of the poor, retraining veterans and veteran's dependents, incubating small business for the lower classes in those foreign nations and finally tying together all those activities to those parts of the Writ that apply as well as extending the teachings of St. Zherneau.

When Charis engages in all this, they will make as many enemies as they will make friends. I suspect that's what RFC will have Charis and the CoC engaging in. I further suspect that by the time the Archangels return, Charis will be really close to the CoGA in the degree of trust they engender in the majority of the population.

I asked the question in my previous post because while re-reading A Mighty Fortress I really considered Kohrnylys Harpahr internal dialogue. Here is a Bishop Militant engaged in a jihad, holy war, on behalf of the God's True Church. He gave up and surrendered his force.

Well, he didn't but his captains did and he agreed that was the right decision. His thoughts were that he couldn't ask any more of them. That implies God couldn't ask any more from them for it was God's plan they fought to affirm.

He and those captains who surrendered believed surrendering to the heretics would be less harmful personally than continuing to fight and that discontinuing the fight was something God would forgive them. That this was not a cause God truly desired above all else He demands from His children. Had the Admiral General and his captains believed in the necessity of the jihad, they would have fought until they were killed. Because if the jihad were truly necessary, Charis would have been an agent of the Dark and would have ushered in greater darkness with each victory. That's the only reason the jihad would have been necessary. If Charis was not an agent of the Dark, the jihad was only a tool of the G4 to secure their political position. That is not worth dying for if surrendering to Charis means living and remaining un-tortured.

So, the mid-level CoGA priesthood has not believed in their own propaganda from the start. Those elements of the CoGA that most powerfully believe in their mission are those that minister to people. Those that teach, engage in charitable activity and otherwise religious ministry as the reader understands such ministry.

Duchairn's ascension confirms this in my mind. He is trying to move the CoGA in that direction, but can't do that totally. He can't because the CoGA is also the central government in a theocratic empire. Everything they do is designed to govern, not just act as a moral goal and guide. Governance requires deciding policy based imperfect conditions that lend themselves to compromise solutions to moral problems.

That being true, Duchairn's attempts to govern will undercut his ability to foster the CoGA as a moral guide and moral teacher. His attempts to be a true moral guide and teacher will undercut his governance. So by setting the standard for moral guidance in the ways this thread have suggested, the CoC will force the CoGA to either focus on the role as moral guide or focus on their role as the central government. Whatever Duchairn chooses to do, the other role will suffer. The CoGA either lets the local governments act and govern while they pass moral judgement or they assert their authority as the central government and accept a greater number of decisions based on the imperfect application of morality.

The first option removes the CoGA's power to compel the local governments and frees up the local government's ability to follow Charisian innovations. The second continues the separation of the moral/ministering elements of the CoGA from those that focus on governance. The ministering elements of the CoGA will become more and more similar to the CoC in their activities. This means that the part of the CoGA that will most resonate with the loyalist leity will be every more similar to the CoC. The CoC then becomes similarly worthy of the CoGA as the recipient of trust and faith. That part which will continue to govern will appear to be most like the CoGA that led to Clyntahn. This will tend to make the CoC more trust worthy in comparison.

That's why I think the Inner Circle has to engage in missionary work. Missionary work that will truly help the people of the loyalist nations. The abolition of slavery and serfdom seems like a great place to plant their mission flag and invite everyone to join them.