The way Duchairn’s salvaging the Church...

It is really not true that Zhames agreed to turn Irys
and Daivyn over to the inquisition. Not did he have any hint of the assassination plot. The inquisition commandeered the household guard that night with no authorization from Zhames. By the time he became aware of what was going on, events had played out.

What does seem to be true is that Zhames doesn't seem very on top of things, whether it's because he overly trusting of the church, or perhaps more likely afraid of the church, I don't know. But when the church shouts jump, Zhames says "how high?"

That, of course, is the traditional stance of a Safeholden ruler. Some of it could well be that due to Delfarak's comparative isolation, the kingdom and its politics are very conservative and aren't as vulnerable to the winds of change as other parts of Safehold.


Don

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n7axw wrote:It is really not true that Zhames agreed to turn Irys
and Daivyn over to the inquisition. Not did he have any hint of the assassination plot. The inquisition commandeered the household guard that night with no authorization from Zhames. By the time he became aware of what was going on, events had played out.

What does seem to be true is that Zhames doesn't seem very on top of things, whether it's because he overly trusting of the church, or perhaps more likely afraid of the church, I don't know. But when the church shouts jump, Zhames says "how high?"

That, of course, is the traditional stance of a Safeholden ruler. Some of it could well be that due to Delfarak's comparative isolation, the kingdom and its politics are very conservative and aren't as vulnerable to the winds of change as other parts of Safehold.


Don

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I never said that Zhames agreed to turn his kinsmen in. What I did say was that he all too obediently rolled over whenever the Church made demands. He allowed the Church to place spies in his household, turned over any correspondence between the regency council and Coris, Irys or Daivyn, forbade any of them to leave the palace unsupervised or unchaperoned and did not see to behave like a someone who put the interests of Church above that of his family members. He also did nothing (as far as we know) to hold his troops accountable for the Ferayd Massacre.

True, he feared the Church and jumped answer its commands, yet that can only excuse so much, especially in the eyes of Charis. Remember that Charis had to instill equal fear in the eyes of the AoG troops and the inquisitors in order to stop their more egregious atrocities (and even then they didn't quite stop). Yet those troops and inquisitors could also claim that they feared Clyntahn's reaction if they did not follow their orders. To which Charis would point to the examples of Father Kuhnymychu, the guards in his camp who let Stefyny Mahlard through to him, Father Aizak Mohmohtahny, Ansyn Mahafee and any number of other priests and soldiers who had managed to overcome their fear of Clyntahn.

So yes, Zhames has quite a lot to atone for in Charis' eyes and Irys in particular would have a bone to pick with him for the way she and her brother were treated during their time in Telkyra.

Now, I ask you Thanatos. Will Irys use that guilt, if given the chance, to build closer relations between and Charis? If it allows her to help those poverty stricken children in Delferahk, I suspect she will take advantage of whatever she can. Well, help the children and secure Delferahk to terms that will bind Delferahk closer to the Inner Circle's long term goal.

PeterZ wrote:Now, I ask you Thanatos. Will Irys use that guilt, if given the chance, to build closer relations between and Charis? If it allows her to help those poverty stricken children in Delferahk, I suspect she will take advantage of whatever she can. Well, help the children and secure Delferahk to terms that will bind Delferahk closer to the Inner Circle's long term goal.

I'm pretty sure she's smart enough to leverage that guilt in any negotiations to get some truly painful concessions out of Zhames. And if she isn't then Cayleb and Sharleyan certainly will be listening in and couching her if necessary. The one thing that is likely to happen over the interregnum is that Charisian policy will likely be to undermine the Church's influence even further, but this time through technological, economic and social influence rather than by the sword. They will want to slowly peel away those realms that still accept the Grand Vicar's authority by offering them bribes or military assistance in purely local conflicts. It will be a Cold War of sorts, whereby the Church's influence erodes steadily.

Because the real social fight, as eluded to in ATSOT, is the final breakdown of the feudal system and the stratified societies it created. The abolition of serfdom and slavery has been one of the key aspects of this series, if only as an undercurrent. Charis is chosen because it was the first to abolish serfdom. The Northern Conspiracy in Corisande is composed primary of nobles who practiced serfdom far more brutally than others. Harchongese serfs are conscripted and trained to use weapons despite the resistance of many Harchongese nobles and Wyllym Rayno, all of whom fear the serf uprising this is likely facilitate. And many of the Chisholmian nobles and guildsmen who stage a last minute rebellion against Sharleyan look down at money earned in trade (rather than the old fashioned way of inheriting it) and rail against the social mobility and liberalism of Charis that could make someone like Howsmyn the richest man in the world.

So the big question for Duchairn would then be if he supports a popular uprising of serfs and slaves, demanding that their government reform the system and abolish these institutions rather than do the expedient thing of supporting the government in the name of maintaining order (and Mother Church's control). Charis could secretly support these movements, providing them with guidance and oversight in order to avoid an orgy of violence against their former overlords and all the collateral damage that would follow. This is where the steady encroachment of Charis social and economic reforms would have the strongest effect and the one that would put Duchairn in the most difficult position imaginable.

thanatos wrote:I'm pretty sure she's smart enough to leverage that guilt in any negotiations to get some truly painful concessions out of Zhames. And if she isn't then Cayleb and Sharleyan certainly will be listening in and couching her if necessary. The one thing that is likely to happen over the interregnum is that Charisian policy will likely be to undermine the Church's influence even further, but this time through technological, economic and social influence rather than by the sword. They will want to slowly peel away those realms that still accept the Grand Vicar's authority by offering them bribes or military assistance in purely local conflicts. It will be a Cold War of sorts, whereby the Church's influence erodes steadily.

Because the real social fight, as eluded to in ATSOT, is the final breakdown of the feudal system and the stratified societies it created. The abolition of serfdom and slavery has been one of the key aspects of this series, if only as an undercurrent. Charis is chosen because it was the first to abolish serfdom. The Northern Conspiracy in Corisande is composed primary of nobles who practiced serfdom far more brutally than others. Harchongese serfs are conscripted and trained to use weapons despite the resistance of many Harchongese nobles and Wyllym Rayno, all of whom fear the serf uprising this is likely facilitate. And many of the Chisholmian nobles and guildsmen who stage a last minute rebellion against Sharleyan look down at money earned in trade (rather than the old fashioned way of inheriting it) and rail against the social mobility and liberalism of Charis that could make someone like Howsmyn the richest man in the world.

So the big question for Duchairn would then be if he supports a popular uprising of serfs and slaves, demanding that their government reform the system and abolish these institutions rather than do the expedient thing of supporting the government in the name of maintaining order (and Mother Church's control). Charis could secretly support these movements, providing them with guidance and oversight in order to avoid an orgy of violence against their former overlords and all the collateral damage that would follow. This is where the steady encroachment of Charis social and economic reforms would have the strongest effect and the one that would put Duchairn in the most difficult position imaginable.

I am persuaded.

I suspect there will still be a proxy war in Desnair, but the central argument will be about slavery. Charis, Silkiah and Siddermark will support the ex-Duke Kohlman faction to eliminate slavery. Harchong and perhaps Dohlar will support the status quo faction. The support for the status quo faction will not be a support of slavery per se, but more not wanting to give up their nations' use of serfs. No external faction actually likes slavery, but those factions don't want to change their current social/economic institutions.

The church is seriously stuck in the middle. Duchairn would likely agree with Charis, Silkiah and Siddermark, but have to support Harchong and Dohlar. The Temple Lands would most definitely support Dohlar and Harchong or face their own loss of serfs.

The interesting part of the conflict will lie with the Border Kingdoms, Delferahk and Sodar. If they find themselves in agreement with Siddermark, Silkiah and Charis, they could see serious financial support from Charis. Enough support that they begin to cut into their more powerful neighbors' influence over their internal politics. It goes without saying that Green Tree Island will definitely side with the Good Guys(TM).

Hi Peter,

I am curious why you would think that Dohlar whose future has to be in manufactories and trade would side with Harchong and Desmair on the subjects of serfdom and slavery. How does that make sense?

Don

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Duke Malakai and Duke Thorast. If I recall correctly, they and other inland Duchies, Baronies and Counties are agrarian. They are also the most conservative both socially and religiously. Given just how densely populated Dohlar is, those food producing regions will carry a good deal of influence.

Now consider those conservative nobles. The cost of serfs is a variable cost without a large capital investment. IOW serfs produce the people to work the land at no capital cost to the land owner and only keep a percentage of production as the operating expense. Upgrading farm equipment requires capital investment, very large capital investment. A bad crop at the wrong time will hammer a land owner making such an investment. Those wise farmers willing to finance the equipment from Charis can make a relative fortune. Guess who those less risk averse farmers will be? Small landowners and freemen renting their land from the larger land owners. These are folks who don't have political pull.

Some large nobles will make the investment. They will make much more money than they had been making. Unfortunately, even the largest land owners will make far less than the manufacturer hiring those excess serfs the new equipment will make superfluous. The export market for food will be limited as Charisian equipment will make every country more productive food producers including Harchong. So, the shrewd noble will recognize the advantage manufacturing will have over agriculture for increasing one's wealth. They will go big into manufacturing and the laggards will find making the jump much more difficult. The laggards will be those conservative land owners who want to limit the ability of manufacturers to hire enough laborers. If they control the availability to labor, they control how much wealth manufacturers can make. So eliminating serfdom also eliminates their ability to control the nation's labor and reduce heir political and economic influence.

I just don't see enough support for the elimination of serfdom for the King of Dohlar to make such a big change. I can see Dohlaran manufactories producing martial equipment for whichever faction Charis is NOT supplying. Between South Harchong and Dohlar, they can remain within shouting distance of the Charisian Alliance's production.

In short, as much as they think they want to limit the ability of manufacturers to hire labour, this time period will be much like Great Britain at the time of the enclosure laws which turned so many tenant farmers and serfs off their land and enabled the beginning of the industrial revolution there. I can hardly wait for the equivalence of the Luddites to appear .

Keith_w wrote:In short, as much as they think they want to limit the ability of manufacturers to hire labour, this time period will be much like Great Britain at the time of the enclosure laws which turned so many tenant farmers and serfs off their land and enabled the beginning of the industrial revolution there. I can hardly wait for the equivalence of the Luddites to appear .

We've already seen them. They're called the Church of God Awaiting. Now that the Inquisition is gone, one suspects some clergy will preach about the corrupting effects of the "innovations". Taking it one step further to destroying the equipment that threatens their livelihoods.

And yes, regardless of the status of serfdom as an institution, fewer laborers will be needed in agriculture. The smaller farms will become much more efficient more quickly as they take advantage of Charisian financing. Which will be available from those enclaves Thanatos mentioned in an earlier post.

Let's move this discussion back to the original topic.

Forcing the CoGA to adopt another expedient at the expense of their most common subjects would erode whatever moral repair Duchairn succeeds in accomplishing.

Through the enclaves Charis will foster training and remedial education to prepare the poorest residents of the mainland cities to make the transition in the emerging economy. The education will be steeped in the moral foundations taught by the Church of Charis. This just happens to be the same moral foundations of the CoGA. I am sure the schools will avoid any doctrinal disagreement between the CoC and the CoGA. They don't need to highlight those disagreements. Charis only needs to show that they are more true to those moral foundations than any loyalist nation or even the CoGA itself.

The moral fight against slavery is the perfect subject to highlight the mainland's failings. The movement begins with folks like the Duke of Delthak supporting efforts smuggle slaves out of Desnair. It grows into a social crusade to abolish slavery. That expands to a social crusade to abolish serfdom. Those social crusades erupt into a civil war in Desnair.

Such crusades pit the industrialists who are making the standard of living better in the mainland nations against the conservative aristocrats and guild masters who wish to restrain the improvements for their selfish benefit. It forces the CoGA to either side with the morally correct choice of those ushering in change to improve the lives of everyone or the conservatives who most strongly support the CoGA hierarchy.