Hauptman Cartel Future

kzt wrote:

PeterZ wrote:What I calculated was the PRIVATE wealth invested OUTSIDE the star kingdom available to be liquidated and reinvested. So yes, I do believe they have those sources of PRIVATE wealth to liquidate and re-invest.

Given that 80% of the population and over 95% of the wealth of humanity is in a star nation that the SEM is at war with where is this supposed to be squirreled away? I understand that it was pretty hard for an US or UK citizen liquidate their Messerschmitt AG stock in January 1942. Do you really think the notoriously rapacious SL bureaucrats won’t take advantage of the situation? Not to mention that the SEM seems to think that trading with the enemy is a big deal.

Those assets have value. Those bonds, shares of stock, direct loans backed by property, loans for ships with liens on those ships and all sorts of other legal rights over securities and real assets are owned by SEM entities. They are all worth something to SL entities. They may not be worth 100% of market value but they are worth something. Once the SLN is proven incapable of defending any .....unreasonable interpretation of Solarian law, those assets will be worth what the market will bear.

Those assets will also be very uncorrelated to interstellar trade. No Manticoran entity would invest in an interstellar enterprise antagonistic to the SEM. Given that access to the WJ is most likely denied to those entities, what fool opens themselves up to such risk? Not successful ones. Because as you post, SL firms entities hold upwards of 90% of galactic wealth, the SEM can sell their assets at need. There is sufficient liquidity in the SL to manage even that. But 336 years of capturing a growing share of the 10%-15% of the Solarian Systems' Product adds up. I believe the mandarins estimated that percentage close to 35% of SL interstellar trade.

The previous wars were paid for largely from cash flows. They didn't go into debt until they built their Buttercup new construction. Their 20 year war was cash and carry until he last 5-6 years. So again yes, the citizens of the SEM has the wealth and the markets to finance rebuilding the nation's infrastructure.

Your assumption that the SEM can't pay for rebuilding is flat wrong. David said as much and text provides infers the same thing.

Just a side note that is relevant to this discussion. Beowulfan citizens have been lining up to buy Manticoran bonds according to textev in ART. That was following the Yawata Strike. That implies optimism in the SEM's future.

What the attack did was wipe out Manticore's heavy industrial plant. We do know that the industrial plant had been continually growing with emphasis placed on the expansiomn of naval capacity. We also know that Manticore's income stream depended upon the junction, investment and banking, and industrial capacity. So far as I know, we don't know how must of that industrial capability was directed in pursuit of civilian efforts and what percentage that civilian effort would be of the total GDP.

Does anyone have any info or ideas about that?

Don

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n7axw wrote:Just a side note that is relevant to this discussion. Beowulfan citizens have been lining up to buy Manticoran bonds according to textev in ART. That was following the Yawata Strike. That implies optimism in the SEM's future.

What the attack did was wipe out Manticore's heavy industrial plant. We do know that the industrial plant had been continually growing with emphasis placed on the expansiomn of naval capacity. We also know that Manticore's income stream depended upon the junction, investment and banking, and industrial capacity. So far as I know, we don't know how must of that industrial capability was directed in pursuit of civilian efforts and what percentage that civilian effort would be of the total GDP.

Does anyone have any info or ideas about that?

Don

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http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8822&p=246824&hilit=Economy#p246824
This covers part of your question. Scroll down to RFC's post. I seem to recall reading that WJ is just over half the total GSP and that the SEM GSP recently exceeded Sol's GSP.

kzt wrote:They were in a war to the knife with Haven and were jacking up tax rates to the the point where they were running into serious opposition. Do you REALLY think they had access to decades worth of GSP squirreled away that they were saving for a rainy day? Do you think that High Ridge wouldn't have spent it?

Until Buttercup (so 8 years ago) it sounds like tax rate of the Star Kingdom was ludicrously low compared to most modern industrialized nations, and part of it was the Opposition never really believed they were in danger.

Plus, per the pearls, Manticore's GDP has actually massively increased since the last seriously calculation per himself. The money spent on warships spread into the entire economy.

Effectively until King Roger, it really seems like Manticore was running off Junction fees. Furthermore, it seems like neutral entities, or even transtellars seeing the writing on the wall, are going to make efforts to find a neutral planet where goods can be transferred to and from GA shipping. Right now the GA effectively controls the wormhole junction network, and now that the SLN is going to fall apart, the junctions are going to represent the safest way to move goods.

Especially once the Manties start commerce raiding SL flagged shipping...

Also, remember, the Taxes that make people squeal in the Honorverse are nothing like our wartime tax rate of 90%. Taxes were low in Manticore for a long time. Even the wartime tax rates haven't been that bad compared to historic rates. Now is the first time it's truly been bad. Even the offenses of the peeps never got this rate. And there was the long peace where the 'war taxes' remained but bonds seemed to stop.

Manticore is insanely wealthy and the Navy has only ever had a mere fraction of the wealth thrown at them.

PeterZ wrote:Those assets have value. Those bonds, shares of stock, direct loans backed by property, loans for ships with liens on those ships and all sorts of other legal rights over securities and real assets are owned by SEM entities. They are all worth something to SL entities. They may not be worth 100% of market value but they are worth something. Once the SLN is proven incapable of defending any .....unreasonable interpretation of Solarian law, those assets will be worth what the market will bear.

Those assets will also be very uncorrelated to interstellar trade. No Manticoran entity would invest in an interstellar enterprise antagonistic to the SEM. Given that access to the WJ is most likely denied to those entities, what fool opens themselves up to such risk? Not successful ones. Because as you post, SL firms entities hold upwards of 90% of galactic wealth, the SEM can sell their assets at need. There is sufficient liquidity in the SL to manage even that. But 336 years of capturing a growing share of the 10%-15% of the Solarian Systems' Product adds up. I believe the mandarins estimated that percentage close to 35% of SL interstellar trade.

The previous wars were paid for largely from cash flows. They didn't go into debt until they built their Buttercup new construction. Their 20 year war was cash and carry until he last 5-6 years. So again yes, the citizens of the SEM has the wealth and the markets to finance rebuilding the nation's infrastructure.

Your assumption that the SEM can't pay for rebuilding is flat wrong. David said as much and text provides infers the same thing.

Also it's not exactly like the SL has a strong central government skilled at dealing with large company taxation. The SL System is set up to let the League government run with a small fraction and a lot of graft from OFS. The actual ability to collect taxes by the League proper in places like, say Visgoth, is probably much less than we think.

Especially since we're dealing with sophisticated entities that know how to use shell companies and hide assets.

Further we know the League has always had an interest in not exploring too deep those kind of companies. Harder to trace graft if you have decentralized banking.

Frankjg wrote:Forget which book. But the Mesan Alignment had an agent in the law firm that represents the Hauptman cartel and family and discovered an interesting piece of info on the will of Stacy and Klaus Hauptman. If they die, the designated heir for their empire is Honor Harrington.

Now will this info come public? Is the deaths of Klaus and Stacy foreshadowed?

Anyone know which book this is? I seem to have missed this bit.

Rajani Isa wrote:

Frankjg wrote:Forget which book. But the Mesan Alignment had an agent in the law firm that represents the Hauptman cartel and family and discovered an interesting piece of info on the will of Stacy and Klaus Hauptman. If they die, the designated heir for their empire is Honor Harrington.

Now will this info come public? Is the deaths of Klaus and Stacy foreshadowed?

Anyone know which book this is? I seem to have missed this bit.

Could be in Storm from the Shadows; but I've to check that.
If it is there, then it should be near the end of the 1st third of the book. Its a topic in a discussion between Albrecht Detweiler and Isabel Bardasano, iIrc. She asks, if the Alignment should kill Hauptmann and he says no.

Rajani Isa wrote:

Frankjg wrote:Forget which book. But the Mesan Alignment had an agent in the law firm that represents the Hauptman cartel and family and discovered an interesting piece of info on the will of Stacy and Klaus Hauptman. If they die, the designated heir for their empire is Honor Harrington.

Now will this info come public? Is the deaths of Klaus and Stacy foreshadowed?

Anyone know which book this is? I seem to have missed this bit.

It's in Ch15, Torch of Freedom. Albrecht and Benjamin are discussing strategies for neutralising Hauptman. One of the problems with assassinating Klaus is that Stacey would inherit and carry on supporting Torch/anti-Manpower activities with a vengeance. So Benjamin suggests killing Stacey as well.

At which point Albrecht reveals that Collin had looked at the provisions(via someone inside Childers, Strauslund, Goldman and Wu) of the Hauptmans' wills to discover that if Klaus and Stacey both die without further heirs of their own, Skydomes of Grayson(not Honor Harrington specifically - she 'only' owns something like 70% of Skydomes) gets all the shares these two own.

According to the Detweilers, this would make Honor the single richest player in the Haven Quadrant and in the top 20-30 galaxy-wide. Except unlike the other 20 ahead of her, she wouldn't need to worry about boards of directors or shareholders, with direct personal control of everything.

My logic could be wrong, but if the author has acknowledged that Harrington inherits the Hauptman's wealth, then it may be logically feasible to rest concerning Harrington's death.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Just a side note that is relevant to this discussion. Beowulfan citizens have been lining up to buy Manticoran bonds according to textev in ART. That was following the Yawata Strike. That implies optimism in the SEM's future.

What the attack did was wipe out Manticore's heavy industrial plant. We do know that the industrial plant had been continually growing with emphasis placed on the expansiomn of naval capacity. We also know that Manticore's income stream depended upon the junction, investment and banking, and industrial capacity. So far as I know, we don't know how must of that industrial capability was directed in pursuit of civilian efforts and what percentage that civilian effort would be of the total GDP.

Does anyone have any info or ideas about that?

Don

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http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8822&p=246824&hilit=Economy#p246824
This covers part of your question. Scroll down to RFC's post. I seem to recall reading that WJ is just over half the total GSP and that the SEM GSP recently exceeded Sol's GSP.

Thanks. That does flesh it out a bit, although as you say, it doesn't deal with my questions entirely. But still... interesting.

Don

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