The way Duchairn’s salvaging the Church...

PeterZ wrote:Paying the full principal immediately? No chance in hades. Making the payments is likely possible if the loyalist lands manage sufficient economic growth.

Considering this further, selling off church property outside of Zion might produce a substantial down payment. Properties in Siddarmark and the EOC could be considered part of that. As far as possible let the COGA be reduced to its parish and monastic facilities and what is needed to support them.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Paying the full principal immediately? No chance in hades. Making the payments is likely possible if the loyalist lands manage sufficient economic growth.

Considering this further, selling off church property outside of Zion might produce a substantial down payment. Properties in Siddarmark and the EOC could be considered part of that. As far as possible let the COGA be reduced to its parish and monastic facilities and what is needed to support them.

Don

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If I was Stohnar, I would back the Church in Siddermark taking possession of the CoGA properties as reparations. Whatever debts the CoGA owes them, Zion has to pay into Siddermak not shuffle its properties around for Peter to pay Paul. If the CoGA needs pay a down payment, pay it from their other properties. One sucpects selling their Silkian or Dohlaran properties would both raise funds and most help stimulate the economies of those nations.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Considering this further, selling off church property outside of Zion might produce a substantial down payment. Properties in Siddarmark and the EOC could be considered part of that. As far as possible let the COGA be reduced to its parish and monastic facilities and what is needed to support them.

Don

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If I was Stohnar, I would back the Church in Siddermark taking possession of the CoGA properties as reparations. Whatever debts the CoGA owes them, Zion has to pay into Siddermak not shuffle its properties around for Peter to pay Paul. If the CoGA needs pay a down payment, pay it from their other properties. One sucpects selling their Silkian or Dohlaran properties would both raise funds and most help stimulate the economies of those nations.

Church-owned real estate and land only remains the Church's property so long as the countries they are in respect the Church's property rights (much as the federal government owns land in the separate states, all of whom recognize its overriding authority and its property ownership). Right now, Siddarmark controls those lands and does not recognize the CoGA's authority over it (much like Charis doesn't). So I don't think Stohnar would consider their formal transfer to the Church of Siddarmark reparations in any way, as he and his Church already control that real estate and those lands and need not fear being arrested for violating the Church's property by the Inquisition and Temple Guard.

Moreover, there is also the matter that reparations can only go so far towards healing the current rift. Even after Germany agreed to pay Israel reparations for Jewish property seized by the Nazis, individual compensation to Holocaust survivors and to the Israeli Government itself for those victims who had no heirs, their were a great many Israelis who wanted nothing to do with Germany and who wished to reject what they viewed as blood money. It has taken 3 generations for both sides to move past the immediate legacies of the Holocaust to the point where few Jews look at Germany with such virulent hatred. All of these issues are touched upon in the epilogue to ATSOT and are therefore likely to have an impact upon the next novels in the series. So even if Duchairn manages to reclaim the Church's pre-Jihad moral authority, it is very hard for me to believe that people in Siddarmark would believe anything he has to say, especially if they are survivors of the camps or of the Sword of Schueler.

thanatos wrote:Church-owned real estate and land only remains the Church's property so long as the countries they are in respect the Church's property rights (much as the federal government owns land in the separate states, all of whom recognize its overriding authority and its property ownership). Right now, Siddarmark controls those lands and does not recognize the CoGA's authority over it (much like Charis doesn't). So I don't think Stohnar would consider their formal transfer to the Church of Siddarmark reparations in any way, as he and his Church already control that real estate and those lands and need not fear being arrested for violating the Church's property by the Inquisition and Temple Guard.

Moreover, there is also the matter that reparations can only go so far towards healing the current rift. Even after Germany agreed to pay Israel reparations for Jewish property seized by the Nazis, individual compensation to Holocaust survivors and to the Israeli Government itself for those victims who had no heirs, their were a great many Israelis who wanted nothing to do with Germany and who wished to reject what they viewed as blood money. It has taken 3 generations for both sides to move past the immediate legacies of the Holocaust to the point where few Jews look at Germany with such virulent hatred. All of these issues are touched upon in the epilogue to ATSOT and are therefore likely to have an impact upon the next novels in the series. So even if Duchairn manages to reclaim the Church's pre-Jihad moral authority, it is very hard for me to believe that people in Siddarmark would believe anything he has to say, especially if they are survivors of the camps or of the Sword of Schueler.

I agree with the long term effects of the jihad on Siddermark. I disagree that the Siddermark properties will be automatically considered as no longer belonging to the Church in Zion. I do believe that Duchairn supporting the logic of transferring that property to Siddermark would be a good thing to do. Since the CoGA no longer effectively controls it anyway, it costs them nothing but a symbolic gesture. Well, it might cost some speculators who bought those properties Duchairn sold when he was part of the go4.

Which does open a can of worms, no? Duchairn sold the properties while treasurer. Now he stipulates that those properties were not his to sell.
Where does the honest investor go to seek redress? Those loyalists will have to sue the CoGA. I suppose that Duchairn can recognize the value of those purchases against future tithe obligations. And if those deeds of ownership can be sold and their value to defray tithes also transferred, the owners can sell those deeds to folks with substantial incomes to hide.....er shelter from tithes.

I wonder if OWL and Nahrmahn can post broadsheets arguing that in Zion's financial district?

PeterZ wrote:I agree with the long term effects of the jihad on Siddermark. I disagree that the Siddermark properties will be automatically considered as no longer belonging to the Church in Zion. I do believe that Duchairn supporting the logic of transferring that property to Siddermark would be a good thing to do. Since the CoGA no longer effectively controls it anyway, it costs them nothing but a symbolic gesture. Well, it might cost some speculators who bought those properties Duchairn sold when he was part of the go4.

Which does open a can of worms, no? Duchairn sold the properties while treasurer. Now he stipulates that those properties were not his to sell.
Where does the honest investor go to seek redress? Those loyalists will have to sue the CoGA. I suppose that Duchairn can recognize the value of those purchases against future tithe obligations. And if those deeds of ownership can be sold and their value to defray tithes also transferred, the owners can sell those deeds to folks with substantial incomes to hide.....er shelter from tithes.

I wonder if OWL and Nahrmahn can post broadsheets arguing that in Zion's financial district?

The speculators in question are those who were willing to buy up church property in the EOC, not Siddarmark. And they did so at a quarter of their real price. Regardless, those speculators are up shit creek without a paddle, yet they have to have known that that would have been a risky investment anyways.

Now an official transfer of ownership would at this point be little more than a symbolic gesture, one that may or may not go over well, whether in Siddarmark or within the Church. I am certain many would say it is an empty gesture, since it provides nothing tangible to the survivors. And even the epilogue notes that many in the Church felt that Duchairn was going too far in many of his reforms, that he wasn't willing to eliminate the Punishment of Schueler for this exact reason. Moreover, if Duchairn is still hoping in public for reunification, permanently divorcing the Church from its holdings in Siddarmark (and its claim to them) run contrary to this.

I do however think that Duchairn might find the Church hard on cash and would ask Charis for economic aid, which would come with quite a few strings attached. I would imagine that Charis would stipulate that it be allowed to establish ex-territorial Charisian areas (like what Hong Kong was) in every major city and port, which would be protected by its own troops, and from which it could spread all its innovations further. They would become permanent eyesores to the hardcore Temple Loyalists, who couldn't really do anything about them without running afoul of the local authorities and the CoGA.

Those speculators are sol. However, they are because of Duchairn's policy and trust in the CoGA. He has an obligation to provide value or run the risk of further damaging his and the CoGA's moral authority. What sort of spiritual leader doesn't try to make good on any expedient swindles he is forced to engage in?

Extra-territorial possessions in major ports is an excellent idea. If the EOC rents e space and governs the area under Charisian law, they buy influence in every major port city on Safehold. I suspect they also keep EOC owned bases close enough to every major port as a not so subtle reminder that those enclaves had better be treated civilly.

Those enclaves in North Harchong would be an excellent place to accept serf-immigrants. Find your way to the enclave and be free. I am sure the local bureaucrats will look the other way for appropriate remuneration. Heck, the locals may even set up their own distribution system bringing serfs from more distant parts of North Harchong for a fee. Same for Desnair. In Desnair I would still argue that buying emancipation for slaves is a good way to improve the lot of all slaves there. Buying up children to be emancipated in Charisian families is a good way to grow the population.of places like Silverlode. Most of the money spent will flow back into Charis or Siddermark buy up goods and services anyway, so the purchase will stimulate Charis's economy.

I really do wonder how the Inner Circle will treat the seijins moving forward. I suspect the broadsheets will still be distributed everywhere as a reminder. They will likely only contain honest news stories both local and international. Further, I suspect those stories will not be the complete local news. Local news papers will be encouraged to print their stories as well.

thanatos wrote:<cut>
I do however think that Duchairn might find the Church hard on cash and would ask Charis for economic aid, which would come with quite a few strings attached. I would imagine that Charis would stipulate that it be allowed to establish ex-territorial Charisian areas (like what Hong Kong was) in every major city and port, which would be protected by its own troops, and from which it could spread all its innovations further. They would become permanent eyesores to the hardcore Temple Loyalists, who couldn't really do anything about them without running afoul of the local authorities and the CoGA.

I don't think this is likely for several reasons:

1) Duchairn is desperate to maintain the authority of Mother Church in every country that it still controls. Ceding bases to "heretics," (which anyone who is a member of any schism of the CoGA will remain labeled, regardless of Duchairn's decree that there are multiple paths to God, as long as they follow the Writ) isn't going to be palatable to the the hierarchy of the CoGA. North Harchong, Desnair, and possibly Delferahk will refuse to cooperate.

2) The innovations that will gush out of the EoC once its manufacturing base turns to consumer goods rather than military production will swamp production in any CoGA country that doesn't quickly emulate Charisian production methods.

3) The constant innovations, both from the EoC and those that will inevitably come from clever people within the CoGA territories will further erode the Proscriptions and authority of the Writ.

4) Allowing bases or free trade zones in major ports would increase the influence of the EoC in those areas and increase acceptance of schismatic churches. Once members of the CoGA are doing regular business with members of the CoC, all who worship the same God and who they know by name, it will be difficult to continue to consider their business partners who will inevitably become friends as being heretical.

5) Those bases would allow the EoC to demonstrate its bleeding edge military innovations, such as diesel powered ships, zeppelins, submarines, airplanes, etc. Granted this would give the CoGA a close glimpse at what future military clashes with the EoC and its allies would entail and would also provide close avenues for spying, but the overall result would be a demonstration of just how far ahead the EoC is technologically and the futility of going to war against it.

Better for Duchairn and the CoGA to cancel the Jihad and recognize that the religious schisms aren't and never have been heretical than to give the EoC an opportunity to get the camel's nose of accelerated innovation under the tent. Some will undoubtedly argue that trade with the Allies should be banned so the CoGA's countries can benefit from the advances they made during wartime to build their civilian economy rather than enriching the EoC by buying its innovative (and subversive) imports, even though they'd be cheaper. Of course we know this would be a failure, since smuggling would become rampant, and South Harchong would probably ignore any such policy for the right price. Dohlar, which agreed to separate terms to withdraw from the jihad and already benefits from extensive Charisian investment, would ignore any such orders completely.

As I see it, and RFC seems to hint, the next military clashes are likely to occur within the countries of the CoGA itself. North Harchong is Shan-Wei bent on maintaining the status quo, while most of the CoGA is more pragmatic and politically flexible about accepting innovation. (Although it will be interesting to see if Desnair descends into civil war.) We may see North Harchong declaring itself to be the real CoGA and the rest of the world heretical, with rather unpleasant results for its neighbors - or it may just become a stagnant backwater and nearly meaningless on the world stage, other than the rampant human rights abuses of its own citizens.

It's possible that the EoC might declare a "Pax EoC" by threatening to sink any warship or troop carrier involved in inter-CoGA conflicts. On the other hand, there's the old saying that says that while your enemy is tearing itself apart, it's best to stand aside and let it happen...

Of course the return of the Archangels (whatever form that takes and when it occurs) will probably render all these predictions meaningless...

McGuiness wrote:I don't think this is likely for several reasons:

1) Duchairn is desperate to maintain the authority of Mother Church in every country that it still controls. Ceding bases to "heretics," (which anyone who is a member of any schism of the CoGA will remain labeled, regardless of Duchairn's decree that there are multiple paths to God, as long as they follow the Writ) isn't going to be palatable to the the hierarchy of the CoGA. North Harchong, Desnair, and possibly Delferahk will refuse to cooperate.

2) The innovations that will gush out of the EoC once its manufacturing base turns to consumer goods rather than military production will swamp production in any CoGA country that doesn't quickly emulate Charisian production methods.

3) The constant innovations, both from the EoC and those that will inevitably come from clever people within the CoGA territories will further erode the Proscriptions and authority of the Writ.

4) Allowing bases or free trade zones in major ports would increase the influence of the EoC in those areas and increase acceptance of schismatic churches. Once members of the CoGA are doing regular business with members of the CoC, all who worship the same God and who they know by name, it will be difficult to continue to consider their business partners who will inevitably become friends as being heretical.

5) Those bases would allow the EoC to demonstrate its bleeding edge military innovations, such as diesel powered ships, zeppelins, submarines, airplanes, etc. Granted this would give the CoGA a close glimpse at what future military clashes with the EoC and its allies would entail and would also provide close avenues for spying, but the overall result would be a demonstration of just how far ahead the EoC is technologically and the futility of going to war against it.

Better for Duchairn and the CoGA to cancel the Jihad and recognize that the religious schisms aren't and never have been heretical than to give the EoC an opportunity to get the camel's nose of accelerated innovation under the tent. Some will undoubtedly argue that trade with the Allies should be banned so the CoGA's countries can benefit from the advances they made during wartime to build their civilian economy rather than enriching the EoC by buying its innovative (and subversive) imports, even though they'd be cheaper. Of course we know this would be a failure, since smuggling would become rampant, and South Harchong would probably ignore any such policy for the right price. Dohlar, which agreed to separate terms to withdraw from the jihad and already benefits from extensive Charisian investment, would ignore any such orders completely.

As I see it, and RFC seems to hint, the next military clashes are likely to occur within the countries of the CoGA itself. North Harchong is Shan-Wei bent on maintaining the status quo, while most of the CoGA is more pragmatic and politically flexible about accepting innovation. (Although it will be interesting to see if Desnair descends into civil war.) We may see North Harchong declaring itself to be the real CoGA and the rest of the world heretical, with rather unpleasant results for its neighbors - or it may just become a stagnant backwater and nearly meaningless on the world stage, other than the rampant human rights abuses of its own citizens.

It's possible that the EoC might declare a "Pax EoC" by threatening to sink any warship or troop carrier involved in inter-CoGA conflicts. On the other hand, there's the old saying that says that while your enemy is tearing itself apart, it's best to stand aside and let it happen...

Of course the return of the Archangels (whatever form that takes and when it occurs) will probably render all these predictions meaningless...

Desperate or not, Duchairn is still an economist, one who understands the practical limitations of governing (something Clyntahn could not grasp). Civil war in Harchong, gold mines drying up in Desnair, a bad drought in Delfarahk or a bad harvest due to insufficient fertilizer in Dohlar (because those nitrates are being used for explosives) is all that it takes for that tax/tithe base to shrink precipitously. So if the CoGA is faced with an economic crisis, one where it is unable to pay its bills to keep the lanterns burning, do you really think Duchairn will simply allow the Church to default on its debts? How then will he maintain the Church's authority? And if Charis poses terms that are difficult from a doctrinal and political perspective, can Duchairn afford to refuse if the alternative is economic collapse? All of your reasons are perfectly valid. Yet if its a choice between economic collapse and accepting Charisian economic aid with said strings attached, I believe that Duchairn would decide to go with the least palatable option.

He could perhaps openly declare that the Church is unable to pay its bills and accept the political consequences of that. Or he could cut any future military expenditures and risk a collision with Magwair, his most important supporter. I believe that there is a bare minimum military budget that Magwair would refuse to drop below, including money for military R&D. Something tells me that a military man like him is unlikely to simply trust the good intentions of Charis and Siddarmark, NTM any other realm who has seen the Church brought down in the Jihad and decide that perhaps a territorial grab from the Temple Lands might be in order. So even if Duchairn manages to increase the tax/tithe base early on, even if he accepts some civilian R&D in addition to military R&D, one misfortune could still screw with the Temple's cash flow and doom it to economic collapse. Or they can accept Charisian aid with all the problems that entails.

Even if there is no economic collapse, Duchairn would be hard pressed not allow Charis those extraterritorial rights IF Charis negotiates them with local polities. Dohlar, South Harchong, Silkiah and whatever Temple Lands polities that agree to enclaves should be able to do so. I can see Cayleb and Archbishop Staynair providing primary schools to continue the education of the poorer children beyond the mandatory 5 years. I can also see Charisian adult vocational schools in those cities training crippled loyalist veterans and dependants of KIA soldiers in new skills useful for manufacturing. Include all those serf dependants from the Grand Host unable to return in those Charis would help in their foreign enclaves.

How does Duchairn say no to those sorts of endeavors? How can local polities say no?

Once accepted these enclaves can be sources of financing, manufacturing advice, evangelism and local higher education.

Bases are another matter. Keep whatever island properties Charis feels it needs and nuts! to whatever any loyalist thinks. They can't dislodge the ICN from any island Charis chooses to keep. I suppose the ICN can assert a variation of the policy Sharley voiced in her first council meeting in Old Charis; wherever there is a ribbon of salt water, Charis asserts its interest if not its sovereignty.

Frankly, why would Charis help the COGA? The inner circle's objective is to destroy the COGA, not rescue it. Let them dig their way out of their own hole...

I really don't see the benefit to Charis in this, certainly not on any substantive level. Helping the COGA could well be a way of subsidizing the next war.

Don

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