Solarian warships/tech : "What is possible!"

kzt wrote:My impression is that the SL is a lot like the UN, which is more accurately called the United Dictators, as about 60% of the nations that make up the UN are in fact considered to be less than free. (It has been a lot higher percentage than that in the past too.) So there are a LOT of SL members who should be pretty damn worried about having truth, justice and the Manticoran way of life delivered to them at pulsar point.

So no, they are not going to roll over and die.

true, but on that very basis there are 40% of the "UN/UD" who are pretty free, and these [or rather their equivs in the SLN] on the whole are technicaly advanced and might well be v interested in getting out from under and maybe allying with Manticore

That's the crux of it all. The member states that can ignore their populace will support the Feds. But will they be willing to financially support the federal government? I think not. They will try to use the SLN to conquer their neighbors and expand the Protectorates. Many of those targeted neighbors won't roll over. The result is a civil war.

I just don't see a scenario where any oligarch SL member state will support the SL printing of money that will hose their backyard over. The alternative to accepting massive hyper inflation is to play Peep and take on the role of conquistador. The first option destabilizes the oligarch's nice playground and the second invites civil war. Neither option results in large scale printing of money to finance a successful R&D program against the GA.

PeterZ wrote:I just don't see a scenario where any oligarch SL member state will support the SL printing of money that will hose their backyard over. The alternative to accepting massive hyper inflation is to play Peep and take on the role of conquistador. The first option destabilizes the oligarch's nice playground and the second invites civil war. Neither option results in large scale printing of money to finance a successful R&D program against the GA.

No, the alternative is to push SL to use it's massive technological, industrial and manpower advantage to fight the people who are going to murder them like they did on Mesa and Mobius Beta. And if other members of the SL don't want to play, well, they can get kicked out, their delegates prevented from voting or otherwise prevented from interfering with the obvious urgent needs.

Let me ask you how you see Venezuela ending? Do you actually think the actions of the government over the last few years have been planned to reduce the chance of the story ending in civil war, economic collapse, or outside military intervention? Have any of the actions of the government over the last 3 years have had anything to do with anything other than clinging to power? That's how 95% of these governments will act when they see the end coming.

We agree that the Mandarins will do anything to cling to power. We disagree that they have the ability to do so. The federal government has existed on its reputation alone. This is not only true for the Verge and Protectorates, but also for its member nations. That reputation is shot.

The Mandarins can't force it he SL member nations to do squat. The SLN may threaten and may actually compell a system or two in the short term. They cannot KEEP enough systems cowed to build up a comparable navy before the GA destroys ALL of the orbital infrastructure of the systems loyal to the surviving Mandarins.

The member systems of the SL has an enormous amount of R&D. The Feds don't control that capacity. The local governments do control that capacity. Printing money won't effectively persuade many systems governments, neither will threats and the use of force. Whatever the Mandarins use to collect enough like minded star nations to fight the GA will only consolidate the remaining target for the GA. Collecting all the GA's enemies into a much smaller collection of star system to be defeated makes the Harrington plan thatch more effective.

So the comparison to Venezuela simply doesn't hold. There is nothing the Mandarins can do to keep the entire SL under their thumb. What systems the can manage to keep won't have enough resources to out R&D or out produce the GA and their new ex-SL allies. The SL is toast.

The member systems of the SL has an enormous amount of R&D. The Feds don't control that capacity. The local governments do control that capacity.

Actually, the corporations like TIY have considerable Military R&D, & fabrication yards. And (to whomever mentioned it earlier) they do have the people on hand to build the software. They had factory reps to send to Monica, after all.

The issues still revolve around doctrine, which has to overcome all the inertia at the top of the Chain of Command at FF and BF. Battle fleet can probably get there first, But they have smaller units available and a smaller budget stretched across more hulls and a wider swath of volume.

Without doctrine one cannot develop strategy or tactics; can't build hulls or armament, incliding missile defense systems. Can't build the software to control your missiles and counter missiles.

Especially can't build simulations to test all the new stuff. Which is where They get bit in the Butt. They are not used to gaming against superior forces, or even equal ones [probably]and they cheat. The whole mindset of the military has to change fast. Odds are it won't happen fast enough.

SPOILER ALERT:



We know RFC has pulled the trigger on Maya System going independent. How far behind will other sectors be? Or even the Protectorates around the Haven sector, NTM the shell.


Too Much to do, too little time. The wheels are about to come flying off. OOPS

PeterZ wrote:That's the crux of it all.

PeterZ, for the SLN/BF/FF to ignore orders from the Mandarins, there has to be an officer who is actually honorable and loyal to their home planet first. So far we haven't seen a single one ANYWHERE other than some VERY low level flunky.

SLN Will follow orders if it means subjugating their own people. All there are in the SLN are arrogant thugs who have sniffed their own ego so many times they have become invulnerable.

Uh, NIT: there are no people from the protectorates in the SLN. Though it should be said that there are none in the BF. FF it appears there are. Did you mean people running away from the shell? EDIT: Though I suppose there kinda has to be. How else could Rozark and company try to secede from the SL... this point rather dramatically demonstrates

Relax wrote:

PeterZ wrote:That's the crux of it all.

PeterZ, for the SLN/BF/FF to ignore orders from the Mandarins, there has to be an officer who is actually honorable and loyal to their home planet first. So far we haven't seen a single one ANYWHERE other than some VERY low level flunky.

SLN Will follow orders if it means subjugating their own people. All there are in the SLN are arrogant thugs who have sniffed their own ego so many times they have become invulnerable.

Uh, NIT: there are no people from the protectorates in the SLN. Though it should be said that there are none in the BF. FF it appears there are. Did you mean people running away from the shell? EDIT: Though I suppose there kinda has to be. How else could Rozark and company try to secede from the SL... this point rather dramatically demonstrates

Not really, all the officer has to be is more concerned with his home system than the amorphous Solarian League. The League which may not share his values or priorities. Text has asserted that the member systems of the League don't all get along, let alone have a truly shared identity. Why should we expect the individual citizens of the League to have different views? I believe the attitudes of the soldiers during the ACW are cases in point. They identified with the states more than the Union or the Confederacy for that matter. Perhaps it would be akin to expecting a Pole or Irishman to consider him/herself a European first and his nationality second.

The above is true for the officers who are not corrupt. The corrupt ones are going to offer their services to the highest bidder. The federal government has cash flow issues and so won't garner the support of the majority of the officer corp. The smart ones won't act the pirate against individual star systems. If they accept those orders as valid, then some other officer may just do the same thing to their home system, against the oligarchs that sponsored their SLN career. The dumb or greedy or simply sadistic ones will do act the pirate. Hello Solarian civil war.

Relative to the size of the population and economy, the SLN and reserves are very small. Paying for the SLN mobilization and construction by having some controlled bank issue credit ("printing money") will not be a major perturbation of the economy. Furthermore, it would be an inflationary perturbation, and will tend to counteract the deflationary perturbations due to Laocoon 2.

I mean: 20,000 reserve SDs including the hulks is a crew of 120,000,000, times 10 for ground support is 1.2 billion people. That would not be war mobilization for Beowulf (say, 24 billion people iirc the textev, and 10% of the population in the military), and Beowulf is modest relative to the SL.

phillies wrote:Relative to the size of the population and economy, the SLN and reserves are very small. Paying for the SLN mobilization and construction by having some controlled bank issue credit ("printing money") will not be a major perturbation of the economy. Furthermore, it would be an inflationary perturbation, and will tend to counteract the deflationary perturbations due to Laocoon 2.

I mean: 20,000 reserve SDs including the hulks is a crew of 120,000,000, times 10 for ground support is 1.2 billion people. That would not be war mobilization for Beowulf (say, 24 billion people iirc the textev, and 10% of the population in the military), and Beowulf is modest relative to the SL.

Sadly, the BF reserve is only ~8300 SDs plus escorts and support - which only makes your point more salient. However, the hardest part will be convincing ANYONE that you need them to pay you more money, especially since everything proves that you mismanaged the original money they gave you so badly. BF reminds me of the old aphorism of a boat - it's a hole in the water (or space) that you throw money into.

Hello TheEmile,

Kudos!

Excellent points as usual, along with everybody else's too.

I'm sorry this is so late, but life never waits.

I just want to add a few points:

Given UH ends in March 1923 PD, ie there's only 5-6 monthes from the early October of CoG and SoV to go, this thread is rather moot.

Considering the next story arc starts some 20 years in the future, things have to be soon set in stone, unless RFC wants lots of back story to bring us up to date then, not a preferred authorial practice, so the SL's defeat must be obviously inevitable or immediate and has to be assured soon.

Thus there's no time for any local member system with possible equal or superior tech [to the SLN] to succor the SL/N, particularly given interstellar distances and travel time, since any nearby core world [if they had had any such tech and were so inclined] would have already provided it, but because the mandarins haven't told the rest of the SL members at large that they're at war, any who might have something better and were willing to share may still not know [or know too late], which would be rather enjoyably ironic if such a SL member existed and could have saved the SL if only they had been more quickly informed by the mandarins a year ago when Byng was executed or when Crandall eliminated.

The real problem as Pappilion intimated is that the SLN is still so grossly ignorant about the GA; they don't have a clue just how deep the hole they're in is, and or where to begin to develop new doctrine, let alone building the hardware to implement it.

It might be better to ask some more specific questions:

1) Just what would the SDF observers have been able to learn if they were always stuck on Manticore and Haven?

Given the excellent security demonstrated by the RMN and PRHN and RHN, not that much; more accurate missiles with very improved ECM-yes, missile pods once the PRHN started using them [which took several years]-yes, and eventually pod and LAC carriers if they paid attention after the armistice, but how much else, especially when the military devil's in the details?

2) Exactly what does the SLN know about the GA tech advantage and the RMN in particular?

Present Answer: So far that they have missiles with ~30 million km [29.2248 million km] powered ranges, that their SD's or SDP's can carry missile pods internally, that they have FTL communications across planetary systems, though they apparently have yet to appreciate that tactically[except by those that have been captured], and that they have powerful LAC's, at least defensively, [which they may know can also be carried internally, though this may not have been something the GA shared in their message to Terra]; they have yet to see them operate offensively, granted their sensor suites are too poor to see the stealthy GA LAC's actually in action.

Which if I haven't left anything out, leaves many more unknown unknowns than what it knows for the SLN.

Ignorantly sailing into such mysterious waters can only result in vast disaster.

Seriously, has anyone or has everyone collectively put together a list of everything the SLN doesn't know about the RMN and the GA?

I know I tried almost a year ago, but haven't seen any thread that compiled a complete list though I didn't check in for around 6 monthes... mea culpa.

Quite aside from MDM's with twice if not more than three times the range the SLN thinks it knows, and the incredible missile storms the GA can generate, there's the fire control, the real time recon and raid assessment the stealthy recon drones can provide, then the incredible accuracy of Apollo, especially at extended ranges, the Mk-23 Echo's AI and what that portends, Mistletoe, NTM the potential for RD's to attack SLN ships ballistically after accelerating to say, .5C or .6C using thrusters only for final corrections, seeming to be practically invisible, especially against their poor sensor net.

Please feel free to add to the list above, I don't have time here to check my list upstairs.

BTW, if the war ends within 5-6 monthes, it is impossible any Bolthole built SDP's will be even half finished or completed in time, rather they will be the post war standard for the GA, until the streak drive equipped units become available [5-10 years from now?], with the earlier pre-Apollo SDP's probably being sold to trustworthy allies, rather than the SLN trash we've suggested for around 10-12 years.

Thus there's no time to develop a counter to Apollo when they still don't know it exists [what could it be?], and how it renders all their ECM obsolete, given 'barricade' how can they risk long ballistic phases in their cataphracts, even if they knew it also existed?

They are horribly screwed in a fashion rarely seen or set up by authors [off hand, I don't know of any other example]; dependent solely on the mercy of their enemies, there's definitely no way out, so deal with it.

Regarding the fascinating financial discussion, all have made excellent and important points, but again given the accelerating avalanche about to bury the mandarins, it is also rather moot, since the time left isn't enough for the financial situation to be affected much either way; the collapse of the SL's control of verge is only a matter of time, ie when enough GA ships arrive [there are thousands of them], as is the destruction of all or almost all of the FF commerce raiders dispatched to Silesia etc [that's why the MAlign had them sent, to eliminate the best ships and crews the SLN has], leaving the ~1500 BF active SD's [very easy targets] and the 8300-8400 in reserve, the former need only 200 MDM's each or 10 RMN pods, the latter only a couple of missiles at most, if laserhead mistletoe's can't kill a dozen at once.

Since the SLN knows HA-H has at least 250,000 pods available to her [because Filaretta didn't dispute her figures], NTM the likelihood that the SLN dismisses her reference to having 2.5 million pods under her control, but only 25 to 30% of that small number are needed to completely destroy the SLN, so one wonders just how much of what it does know that the SLN staff is sharing with those on the sharp edge sent out to discover just how many more of those mortal "unk-unks" remain.

At what point do the admirals, captains, and crews of those ships begin to fathom just how completely outmatched they are?

Then what do they do?

To prevent mass condemnation when the rest of humanity eventually realizes just how outmatched the SLN is/was, what can the GA do to mitigate charges of massacre, etc?

Does Honor plan multiple repeats of her Apollo range demonstration to Lester whenever there's a large SLN fleet to appreciate it?

Of course, she has probably put them into such a tactical situation they all have to surrender, but the newsies will be free to spread their first hand scoop throughout the SL and beyond.

Is that why she's able to meet with Kingsford so quickly?

Because there aren't anymore SLN fleets?

Very interesting times indeed.

L


[quote="Theemile"][quote="phillies"]Relative to the size of the population and economy, the SLN and reserves are very small. Paying for the SLN mobilization and construction by having some controlled bank issue credit ("printing money") will not be a major perturbation of the economy. Furthermore, it would be an inflationary perturbation, and will tend to counteract the deflationary perturbations due to Laocoon 2.

I mean: 20,000 reserve SDs including the hulks is a crew of 120,000,000, times 10 for ground support is 1.2 billion people. That would not be war mobilization for Beowulf (say, 24 billion people iirc the textev, and 10% of the population in the military), and Beowulf is modest relative to the SL.[/quote]

Sadly, the BF reserve is only ~8300 SDs plus escorts and support - which only makes your point more salient. However, the hardest part will be convincing ANYONE that you need them to pay you more money, especially since everything proves that you mismanaged the original money they gave you so badly. BF reminds me of the old aphorism of a boat - it's a hole in the water (or space) that you throw money into.[/quote]