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Vince
Vice Admiral
Posts: 1574
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:43 pm
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Robert_A_Woodward wrote:runsforcelery wrote:
(SNIP, of various including my assertion that Houdini should have been activated earlier)
Okay, let’s look at some timeline here. Now, I realize that I have an unfair advantage in that I actually have the complete timeline, but the general sequence of what I’m going to be talking about should be pretty clear from the books.
Battle of Monica – 2/22/1921
(snip)
Operation Beatrice (First Battle of Manticore) — 7/24/21
(snip)
Oyster Bay — 2/26/22
(snip)
news of 2nd Manticore (and the Grand Alliance) reaches Mesa — 6/20/22
Operation Houdini stood up — 6/21/22
Mike Henke leaves Montana for Tillerman — 7/10/22
Mike Henke leaves Tillerman for the Myers System — 7/21/22
Mike Henke conquers the Myers System — 8/11/22
Mike Henke invades Mesa — 11/3/22
Now, this means that a total of almost exactly 16 months pass between the Battle of Monica and the beginning of Operation Houdini. But only four months pass between Oyster Bay and Albrecht Detweiler’s decision to order an expedited Operation Houdini following the 2nd Battle of Manticore.
(SNIP of David Weber's entire exposition)
IMHO, Houdini should have been activated when Oyster Bay was authorized several days after 1st Manticore (i.e., 11 months earlier than Houdini actually was). Furthermore, sufficiently cautious conspirators should have planned on disappearing BEFORE they go active with Prometheus.
I would say if you are going to poke a manticore, don't do it from an exposed position. And the Mesan Alignment should have known it was in a precarious position (for those Mesan Alignment personnel physically on Mesa) having used Manpower and Mesa to poke Manticore in the original Talbott operation. The Alignment should have activated or accelerated Houdini shortly after the conversation (2 weeks later, after the freighter Marianne failed to report in) with Aldona Anisimovna, Isabel Bardasano, and Albrecht Detweiler where the failure of the Talbott operation was discussed in At All Costs. Bardasano puts her finger on the key information: At All Costs, Chapter 47 wrote:"Well, ladies," Albrecht Detweiler said from behind the desk workstation, without inviting either of them to be seated, "things don't appear to have gone very well in Talbott, after all."
"No, they haven't," Anisimovna agreed, her voice as level as possible. Detweiler regarded her thoughtfully, as if waiting for her to add something more to that bare agreement, but she knew better than to offer any hint of an excuse. Especially not when he'd kept the two of them waiting, and stewing in their own juice, for almost three standard days since their return from the Republic of Monica.
"Why not?" he asked after a moment.
"Because of a chain of circumstances we were unable to predict," Isabel Bardasano said, her voice as level as Anisimovna's had been.
"I was under the impression that proper planning allowed for all contingencies," Detweiler observed.
"Good planning allows for all the contingencies the planner can think of," Bardasano corrected in an amazingly calm tone. "This particular set of contingencies was impossible to anticipate, since no one can allow for freak circumstances which are inherently impossible to predict."
"That sounds remarkably like an excuse, Isabel."
"I prefer to think of it as an explanation, Albrecht," Bardasano said, while Anisimovna tried to focus her attention on one of Detweiler's pre-space oil paintings. "Under certain circumstances, explanations are also excuses, of course. You asked us why things didn't work out as planned, however. That's why."
Detweiler gazed at her, his lips very slightly pursed, his eyes narrowed, and she looked back squarely. One thing about her, Anisimovna thought; she didn't lack nerve. Whether her lack of fear was completely sane or not was another matter.
"Very well, Isabel," Detweiler said finally. "'Explain' what happened."
"We don't know yet, not fully," she admitted. "We won't know for some time. The only hard fact we have at this time is that somehow a Manty cruiser captain named Terekhov and Bernardus Van Dort figured out what was happening. Terekhov put together what I strongly suspect was a completely unauthorized attack on Monica. And as Aldona and I told you at our last meeting, the program to refit the battlecruisers we—or, rather, Technodyne—were providing had fallen behind schedule."
"You also informed me that there was ample cushion in your timetable," Detweiler interrupted in a deceptively pleasant voice.
If he'd intended to put Bardasano off her pace, he failed. She simply looked at him for a moment, then nodded.
"Yes, we did. And it was an accurate statement. In fact, Izrok Levakonic and the Monicans had managed to get three of the battlecruisers completely refitted and manned before Terekhov showed up, and the biggest unit he had was a heavy cruiser. Had he delayed his arrival for another week, four more Indefatigables would have been ready for action, as well. Under normal circumstances, however, I believe most people would have felt three Solarian League battlecruisers, with up-to-date electronics and weapons fits, ought to have been able to deal with five cruisers and four destroyers."
"Apparently, they would have been wrong," Detweiler said. "And, I might point out to you, if I were inclined to pick nits, that one of the objectives of the operation was to obtain specimens of Manty hardware specifically because we knew it was better than Solly equipment."
"Granted," Bardasano replied. "I would submit, however, that its degree of superiority was greater than anyone had anticipated, including Technodyne."
"I'm much less well versed in technical matters than Isabel, Albrecht," Aldona said, speaking up in support of her colleague, "but we did discuss this with Levakonic. He felt confident of maintaining Monica's security with the combination of missile pods he'd deployed and the battlecruisers already in commission. That part of the operation was his responsibility, and we relied on his expert opinion."
Detweiler switched his gaze to her, and she made herself look back calmly. He appeared to consider her words for several seconds, then gave a tiny shrug.
"I suppose that was reasonable enough, under the circumstances," he said. "However," he continued before Anisimovna's nerves could begin to unknot themselves, "even granting that, the fact that the Manties and this Van Dort somehow tumbled to what was going on speaks poorly of your operational security."
"At this point," Bardasano said, "we don't know how our security was penetrated. I see two possibilities. One is that the penetration took place on the Monican side. President Tyler and his closest advisers had to be brought fully into the picture, at least as far as their part of the operation was concerned. Their security arrangements were beyond our control, and we don't know how or where they might have been breached.
"The second possibility," she continued unflinchingly, "is that the penetration was on our side of the operation. In that case, the most likely scenario is that this Terekhov literally stumbled over the Marianne."
"Marianne?" Detweiler repeated.
"The special ops ship we were using to deliver weapons to our proxies," Bardasano explained. "We've used her and her crew dozens of times before. They're reliable and experienced in this sort of covert operation, and using our own ship and our own people let us maintain a far lower profile and avoid an entire additional layer of potential leaks."
"So why do you think she could be involved?"
"Because she's the only direct link between our terrorist proxies and Monica." Bardasano shrugged. "Izrok needed emergency transportation for additional shipyard technicians. Marianne was already headed for the Cluster. He asked me if we could transport them for him, and I agreed. Apparently, I shouldn't have."
She made the admission without flinching, and a flicker of what might have been approval showed in Detweiler's eyes.
"If she is the clue the Manties picked up on," she continued, "they must have taken at least some of her personnel and sweated them. They don't actually know anything about the Monican side of the operation, but they do know they delivered technicians to Monica. That could have been enough. Unfortunately, we probably won't know whether or not that's what actually happened for some time. Marianne's movement schedule means we don't expect contact with her for another couple of weeks."
"This is all speculation," Detweiler remarked, and Bardasano and Anisimovna both nodded.
"We barely managed to get out of Monica, and take the only Frontier Security personnel directly involved in the operation with us," Anisimovna said. "We couldn't afford to wait around for any more details. If they'd captured Isabel or myself—"
She broke off, and it was Detweiler's turn to nod.
"Point taken," he acknowledged. He considered them silently for several more seconds, then seemed to reach a decision.
Italics are the author's, boldface and underlined text is my emphasis. -------------------------------------------------------------
History does not repeat itself so much as it echoes.
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) I really don't like snippeting much more than that, but 78-80,000 words would probably work out just fine. And, of course, the EARC will be available for those of you who want it well before next November!