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Filareta's missles -- why??

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Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:43 pm

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The MAlign knew it was going to be a turkey shoot, it makes no difference what missiles he had. Thus why send their best? All they did is show their hand a bit to Manticore and provide yet another thread that might be unraveled.

Yea, Filareta is dead but the computers still will have a record of the missiles coming from Mesa and others can have the same thoughts he had about why.

Even though Mesa has now been captured the missiles are still a big indication that there's a fleet out there. Yet another hole in the sieve called Houdini.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Nyssa   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:36 pm

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Would he even have gone to Manticore without those misses?
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by JohnRoth   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:04 pm

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See the infodump RFC just posted in the UH snippet 3 thread. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9028&start=30#p250871

The short answer is that Technodyne has manufacturing facilities all over, including one that everyone knows about at Mesa. Shipping Cataphracts from Mesa simply means that the Mesa facility may have manufactured them; it doesn't point the finger anywhere in particular.

And, since that facility is now orbital debris, there's nothing left to discover.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by JohnRoth   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:05 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:See the infodump RFC just posted in the UH snippet 3 thread. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9028&start=30#p250871

The short answer is that Technodyne has manufacturing facilities all over, including one that everyone knows about at Mesa. Shipping Cataphracts from Mesa simply means that the Mesa facility may have manufactured them; it doesn't point the finger anywhere in particular.

And, since that facility is now orbital debris, there's nothing left to discover.


And yes, Fillaretta would have gone to Manticore without the missiles. He was preparing to leave when he got a hold order to wait for them.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Nyssa   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:35 pm

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Yes, I know. However, he was thinking that even firm orders have wiggle room, and if he decided the odds were not in his favor he wouldn't attack. This was with the super misses. With standard misses maybe he would have just called things off. At least that way, he would still be alive.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Potato   » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:04 pm

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The Alignment had already been ratcheting up the tension with Byng and Crandall. For Filareta to continue to trend, they needed a way for him to get massacred. To do that, Filareta needs a way to engage any Manticoran defenders. It does them no good if Filareta is millions of kilometers outside of his own effective missile range. The Cataphracts hence gave him a way to force the Manties to retaliate in the heat of the moment.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Theemile   » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:07 am

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Potato wrote:The Alignment had already been ratcheting up the tension with Byng and Crandall. For Filareta to continue to trend, they needed a way for him to get massacred. To do that, Filareta needs a way to engage any Manticoran defenders. It does them no good if Filareta is millions of kilometers outside of his own effective missile range. The Cataphracts hence gave him a way to force the Manties to retaliate in the heat of the moment.


Also, If I'm reading the storyline correct, the MAlign does not want the GA to survive. They want the GA to pull the SLN appart and for them all to go down in flames, so the RA can pick up the pieces.

So, a more effective Filareta destroys more Manty capability now, making them easier to destroy later.

Unfortunately, the missiles - and Filareta's leadership, were not effective enough to substantially lower the RMN's combat capability.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by kzt   » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:46 am

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Theemile wrote:Also, If I'm reading the storyline correct, the MAlign does not want the GA to survive. They want the GA to pull the SLN appart and for them all to go down in flames, so the RA can pick up the pieces.

David has implied that, as I read it, the MA really wants the SL dead. Really, really badly wants that. In a perfect world having the dying act of the SL cripple or destroy the RMN would be nice. But the SL really has to die.

If the RMN comes out as the top dog then they will deal with that. There are obvious issues with one tiny system trying to control the 2000 some worlds of the SL, so it probably won't take too long or require too much effort t have them pull back.

And no, the MA was totally sure that it was going to be a massacre.
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by Dilandu   » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:39 am

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Basically because their nanites are stupid even by standards of modern-day AI. They needed to make the nanite-launched salvo a FORMALLY credible threat no matter wht circumstances are.

Because if Filaretta did not have the long-range missiles, the nanite-launched salvo would look just... plainly stupid. With high probability it would be launched from far outside any useful distance, so it would look VERY suspicious. Even Manties would think "something isn't right" if SLN ships would just start to launch missiles with zero chances to hit - and even Harrington would probably NOT strike back in such stupid situation.

So, without the long-range missiles there were really great probability that the whole carefully planned situation might end up as harmless confusion. And with League fleet either surrendering or turning back without a real fight, even the Mandarins would start to suspect "something fishy is going on"...
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Filareta's missles -- why??
Post by ldwechsler   » Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:09 am

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Dilandu wrote:Basically because their nanites are stupid even by standards of modern-day AI. They needed to make the nanite-launched salvo a FORMALLY credible threat no matter wht circumstances are.

Because if Filaretta did not have the long-range missiles, the nanite-launched salvo would look just... plainly stupid. With high probability it would be launched from far outside any useful distance, so it would look VERY suspicious. Even Manties would think "something isn't right" if SLN ships would just start to launch missiles with zero chances to hit - and even Harrington would probably NOT strike back in such stupid situation.

So, without the long-range missiles there were really great probability that the whole carefully planned situation might end up as harmless confusion. And with League fleet either surrendering or turning back without a real fight, even the Mandarins would start to suspect "something fishy is going on"...


What the Sollies fail to realize is that it is not the range of the missiles that is vital but the control. Honor pointed out to Filareta that she had far better control of a lot of missiles. At the current point, the Sollie missiles have a ballistic component where they cruise for a while to pick up range. That would make them easy targets.

Remember that Filareta was more willing to be realistic about Mantie capabilities than others but was still underestimating.

Also, the Mesalliance might not mind a really weakened Solarian League, one that has lost half to two thirds its members but still has some power. It would be a great red herring for others to worry about. And the real action will be going on for generations on other planets.

Providing hidden genetic assistance to people as well as money and advice could get the Detweiler ideas spread more widely. After all, the first phase was 500 years, why not that long for a second stage? After all, moving in really good genes to people, allowing them to live far longer, will go a long way towards winning hearts and minds.
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