The logistics of SLN commerce raiding

Jonathan_S wrote: Actually whether commerce raiders can let (delayed) reports of their presence get out depends on what their operational goals are.

Sometimes raiders are tasked with destroying the maximum tonnage of enemy cargo. In that case, yes, any info that they're in the area is highly counterproductive to their efforts.

But other times, at least hear on Earth, they're used to force an numerically superior enemy to disperse his forces to chase raisers all over the oceans. In that case, while you still don't want real-time info (radio) announcing you've just stopped or attacked a freighter having survivors turn up to report your attacks is helpful. (As long as you move out of the area first). Survivors add political pressure to stop the raiders, pushing the navy to divert and disperse more units for that task. And again by delayed reports of your actives, spread over as wide an area as possible, it again pushed up the number of units and resources needed to chase you.
Yes having to constantly move to new hunting grounds cuts down on the number of freighters you can attack, but it prolongs your mission and achieves the dispersal of units you're looking for.


We just don't know which of these 2 tasks the SLN is ordered to prioritize. But given the transit and message times its way less risky for them to dump crewman on a neutral planet than it would be for a raiding ship to drop them at a neutral port after the advent of underseas telegraph cables (much less radio)

There is one point that I (after reading quickly) don't see anyone having made is that PROFESSIONAL naval officers, especially commanding officers who have a couple of brain cells bouncing around between their ear, will realize that eventually there WILL be a reckoning if things don't go totally in the SLN's favor.

War Crimes trials or summary Courts Martial.

Even regular naval vessels which act like pirates and are identified will be treated like pirates either if taken in combat (and the senior officers survive) or afterward if there is a peace treaty or the SLN capitulates.

That hemp necktie can get mighty tight.

Commerce warfare has rules. Outright murder is outside those rules and whoever the offender is captured by may not always cross all the "I"s and dot all the "T"s in the ensuing legal proceedings. The RMN and RHN probably would observe all the legal niceties but would Erhwon or the various SDFs? (How long can you hold your breath? It's a long walk home without a skinsuit.)

There is one point that I (after reading quickly) don't see anyone having made is that PROFESSIONAL naval officers, especially commanding officers who have a couple of brain cells bouncing around between their ear, will realize that eventually there WILL be a reckoning if things don't go totally in the SLN's favor.

War Crimes trials or summary Courts Martial.

Even regular naval vessels which act like pirates and are identified will be treated like pirates either if taken in combat (and the senior officers survive) or afterward if there is a peace treaty or the SLN capitulates.



That hemp necktie can get mighty tight.

Commerce warfare has rules. Outright murder is outside those rules and whoever the offender is captured by may not always cross all the "I"s and dot all the "T"s in the ensuing legal proceedings. The RMN and RHN probably would observe all the legal niceties but would Erhwon or the various SDFs? (How long can you hold your breath? It's a long walk home without a skinsuit.)[/quote]

Also, privateers and commerce raiders generally do not win wars. They may help (note American subs EVENTUALLY in the Pacific in WWII) but they are not decisive.

And when one side has overwhelming force, it becomes dumb. Raiding by regular naval ships from the GA could shatter the economies of a lot of rich heart worlds.

ldwechsler wrote:Also, privateers and commerce raiders generally do not win wars. They may help (note American subs EVENTUALLY in the Pacific in WWII) but they are not decisive.

And when one side has overwhelming force, it becomes dumb. Raiding by regular naval ships from the GA could shatter the economies of a lot of rich heart worlds.

I think the officers and men of the submarine force would probably argue the point with you, cutting off an island empire's lines of supply can be decisive and was during WWII.

The surface and air naval forces won exciting victories to be sure but did not themselves cut Japan's lines of supply, the submarine force did just as the German Navy almost did in the Atlantic against England during both World Wars.

Starving the enemy into submission by cutting his sources of fuel and industrial raw material is a war winning strategy, just not quick nor spectacular. I say this even though I was once a Destroyerman and Assault Ship sailor.

Both World Wars turned into wars of attrition that neither Germany nor Japan (WWII) could win once their lines of supply of critical raw materials and fuel were cut.

ldwechsler wrote:Raiding by regular naval ships from the GA could shatter the economies of a lot of rich heart worlds.

The mandarins are saying "Only please, Brer Fox, please don't throw me into the briar patch."

robert132 wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:Also, privateers and commerce raiders generally do not win wars. They may help (note American subs EVENTUALLY in the Pacific in WWII) but they are not decisive.

And when one side has overwhelming force, it becomes dumb. Raiding by regular naval ships from the GA could shatter the economies of a lot of rich heart worlds.

I think the officers and men of the submarine force would probably argue the point with you, cutting off an island empire's lines of supply can be decisive and was during WWII.

The surface and air naval forces won exciting victories to be sure but did not themselves cut Japan's lines of supply, the submarine force did just as the German Navy almost did in the Atlantic against England during both World Wars.

Starving the enemy into submission by cutting his sources of fuel and industrial raw material is a war winning strategy, just not quick nor spectacular. I say this even though I was once a Destroyerman and Assault Ship sailor.

Both World Wars turned into wars of attrition that neither Germany nor Japan (WWII) could win once their lines of supply of critical raw materials and fuel were cut.

Yeah, the US Subs in WWII sank the vast majority of the Japanese freighters lost and caused such a shortfall that the US was barely able to import enough food to surrendered Japan in the second half of 1945 to fend off mass starvation.
Japan might have huddled in the dark and starved if the US hasn't gone atomic or invaded, but their civilian death toll would have been astronomical after a year or so because the US submarine force had sunk all the ships that could have imported food and fuel.
The Islands of Japan are very far from self-sustaining, so cut off (or sink) their merchant marine and they're on a very short clock to disaster.

The Honorverse is very different. Except for the newest, most hardscrabble, colonies pretty much any planet is capable of feeding it's population without outside help. It may not be the food they're used to or want (Montana beef, for example) and there will be disruptions if, for economic reasons, an planet got used to paying others for basic food so their people and land could be used for more profitable work. But no planet is as resource poor, relative to it's population density, as WWII Japan was. So consequently commerce raiding is less life or death for planets.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:The latter concept is much more flexible. One way to exact that very high price is to expand attacks on the Solarian League to include civilian industrial infrastructure. If GA merchant shipping can be targeted, then SL civilian infrastructure is also a legitimate target.

I can't think of anything that would assure the destruction of the GA more -- in the long term. The GA can't occupy and subjugate enough League worlds to prevent revanchism and if they do something to incline the League members to set aside internecine squabbles and present a united front, they are doomed. The GA may win every battle and even win the "first war" but they can't prevent a unified League from rebounding for a second war with peer (or superior) equipment.

That's why the Harrington Doctrine advocates a primarily diplomatic strategy that will destroy the league by breaking it into smaller polities.

"I destroy my enemies when I make them my friends." -- You don't make friends by destroying their economy first.

Absolutely my sentiment exactly Harold. I agree wholeheartedly. As a matter of fact, I think the League is betting on the fact that the Manties can't really respond in kind. Heck, the League would want them to, to rally their troops.

BUT! Does there come a time when you just have to throw down the gauntlet and say "Enough is enough? Let's stop pussyfooting around?" I don't think the League has thought this thing through. Personally, I don't think the SLN has enough chutzpah to stay the course and deliver a successful campaign. (Akin to a high-stakes roller in Vegas who can afford to eat huge losses initially, capitalizing statistically in the end). What's worse, I don't think they realize exactly what a successful campaign may lead to in the end game. They are daring the barbarians to draw and shoot. Counting on the fact that the RMN has their hands tied as far as adopting the strategy of attacking the League directly.

It reminds me of what one of my sisters used to do to me as a kid. She'd take my ice-cream cone, lick it in my face and taunt me. "Hit me then. Hit me then." Yea right. I'm not gonna die over ice-cream. And my father and other four brothers...

It is the same thing the League is counting on. Their perception that the barbarians' hands are tied. And that they won't dare free them and attack -- putting the League exactly where they want to be. I think it was Kingsford who stated this same thought. Regarding the Manties having a direct highway into the League but that he didn't think the Manties would roll the dice that way because of the aforementioned consequences.

Yet, taunting can have unforeseen side effects. Like Eighth Fleet "loaded for gorilla" sitting off Sol's starboard bow, with an ultimatum.

Other than that, I'm wondering how long it will take before the RMN sends a communique to the League stating "No more Mr. Nice Guy" and that "The gloves will come off tomorrow at high noon. All ships caught commerce raiding will be destroyed outright. No shot across the bow." Sometimes you have to consider stronger measures when intransigence reigns supreme.

One thing we should remember. Beth will only endure so much.

The Harrington Doctrine is exactly that, Harrington's.

It is not Beth's. Sane doctrine may not work against the insane. Ask Kim Jong-un. Embargoes and Lacoons only open superficial wounds. Sometimes, an enemy has to taste his own blood before it becomes real. The lesson the Japanese learned the same. The hard way.

cthia wrote:The Harrington Doctrine is exactly that, Harrington's.

It is not Beth's. ...

It may have been proposed by Honor, but it was immediately adopted as official Manticoran strategy by Beth, her PM and First Lord of the Admiralty.

Further, Honor is running the entire GA military alliance and Beth isn't the last word in GA strategy decisions; she has numerous peer rulers to reach a consensus with to redirect GA goals and policies.

Finally, the Harrington Doctrine is the only route to a lasting solution.

Honor knows that. Beth knows that. Hamish knows that. Eloise knows that. Protector Benjamin knows that. Her Mousety Queen Berry knows that. Jeremy X knows that. Governor Barregos and Adm Luis Roshak(sp) know that. Erewhon's Triumvirate (plus one) know that.

I can't think of anyone with any influence over GA goals, strategy, and policy that doesn't know that.

Weird Harold wrote:

cthia wrote:The Harrington Doctrine is exactly that, Harrington's.

It is not Beth's. ...

It may have been proposed by Honor, but it was immediately adopted as official Manticoran strategy by Beth, her PM and First Lord of the Admiralty.

Further, Honor is running the entire GA military alliance and Beth isn't the last word in GA strategy decisions; she has numerous peer rulers to reach a consensus with to redirect GA goals and policies.

Finally, the Harrington Doctrine is the only route to a lasting solution.

Honor knows that. Beth knows that. Hamish knows that. Eloise knows that. Protector Benjamin knows that. Her Mousety Queen Berry knows that. Jeremy X knows that. Governor Barregos and Adm Luis Roshak(sp) know that. Erewhon's Triumvirate (plus one) know that.

I can't think of anyone with any influence over GA goals, strategy, and policy that doesn't know that.

And now with your post, I know that too.

BUT! The League does not know that. How much accumulative loss -- ships and lives -- should Manticore eat, should the League mount a successful campaign?

Is there a contingency plan for all of the League's Kim Jong-uns?

Hey, I was 7-yrs-old when my sister kept doing it to me. I finally told my mom. I don't expect the RMN to call their mother.

And I don't consider Beth asking for stronger measures, to be off the table. Especially if Manticoran citizens began getting murdered wholesale under the guise of "commerce raiding." I don't see Beth swallowing too many of these. The one person that cares as much about her charges as Honor... is Beth. Arguably even more.

Originally when the Doctrine was laid down, nobody saw a League that would turn to low-down, dirty, rotten, stinking, good for nothing murderers. Not even our Duckk. Not Duckk's fault. It's hard for the sane to guess what drives the insane.

cthia wrote:And I don't consider Beth asking for stronger measures, to be off the table. Especially if Manticoran citizens began getting murdered wholesale under the guise of "commerce raiding." I don't see Beth swallowing too many of these. The one person that cares as much about her charges as Honor... is Beth. Arguably even more.

"Stronger Measures" does NOT necessarily mean attacking league member civilians. The GA is already committed to defeating the SLN wherever and whenever they find them. "Stronger measures" simply means capturing a few FF bases with the info on raider logistics and making bonfires out of raiders when they show up somewhere to resupply.

Destroying the SLN -- preferably without killing everyone in the SLN -- is a legitimate tactic. Terrorizing civilians and destroying League Member infrastructure is not: Not if Manticore and the GA intend to survive in the long-term

The US subs in the Pacific both killed a lot of Japanese ships and crews and troops. It crippled the import of all goods to Japan and movement of men and equipment out from in and between staging areas and destinations. It also forced Japan to divert warships to run as escorts for the tankers, freighters and troopships as well as for larger warships. The subs, given they were on Earth, could sometimes report enemy movements if the appeared critical or were tasked with recon missions or landing & recovering raiders to various enemy bases such as radio listening posts and communications relays.
Its really tough to send out warships when you aren't getting enough oil to meet projected operational needs and industrial production of war materials.

Kingsford has to make a number of difficult choices in what he tells the people doing the commerce raiding how to conduct the campaign. He already has the idea that the SLN is likely to loose in any one-to-one engagement of equal sized ships and the SEM/RHN is consistantly performing well above their nominal class designations. So he is going to face a decision of at least pairing ships in the raiding because sooner or later they are going to run into a GA ship patroling or on convoy duty.

IF a warship attacks or forces to surrender a merchant just inside or outside the hyperlimit of a system it is possible that if the crew is allowed to abandon ship they can head in-system expecting some sort of assistence from whaterve inter system ships are there. Or there may not be anything that can actualy be of help even if it has the legs to go out to meet the surivors. If the merchant is it away from an inhabited system (like the Peeps were doing in Silesia) then the odds of survival are low because they have to depend on some other passing ship to notice them and stop.
Going along with that, there is an actual war going on and SLN warships really are fair game anywhere even if the GA isn't currently going into SL space. The areas out on the Verge where OFS is working their protection rackets is another matter. Most of these inhabited systema are nomininaly independent thought they may just be OFS puppets or satraps of various Interstellars. The GA can go looking for SLN warships there and be covered by exactly the same fig leaf FF and OFS is using. This is NOT SL space, we are just looking to protect the commerce of the local systems. That the GA is not killing or capturing freighter and the SLN is will become abundently clear to anybody who bothers to pay attention and it will still end up with the GA running essentialy anti-piracy sweeps while the SLN is waging ecomomic warfare against almost everybody else. Not a really good way to try and paint yourself as holding the moral high ground.

That the SLN is going to have to usually use ambush tactics to do much damage to GA forces is going to lead them to try and swarm GA ships when they can't do small ambushes. They are still going to come off with an abysmal loss ration in combat with GA warships.

I would suspect that shortly after there is eveidence of the commerce raiding, the GA is going to send strike forces in on known or suspected SLN (mostly FF) logistics nodes and Sector Governers locations and just blow the crap out of any SLN assets in systems. They may leave the orbital stations and industrial facilities but every SLN ship is going to be destoryed and, quite possibly the surviving OFS/SLN senior officer will be told that they are just going to have to handle their own rescue and recovery of surviving SLN staff becaus the GA force has other pirate nests to go clear out. Your in a system you hold and have been raiding merchant shipping....If you don't like having to pick up your own people in a system you are still alive in, just say so and will will pick them up and hold them for trial on suspision of piracy. Your choice.
Granted, that would be fairly heavy handed without evidence in their pockets that it was a ship or ships based her or using it for resuppy that have been doing the raiding, but could be dam effective. Want to fight a GA warship, bring it on. Want to be all brave and courageous to go out and murder non-combatant merchants, you can have the penalties that go with the crimes. The SLN spacer will even get fair trials under existing SL law....really big smile.