The logistics of SLN commerce raiding

The Logistics of SLN Commerce Raiding


The Havenite AI: The Boogeyman

The same algorithm that I imagine the Havenites cooked up to trap Eighth Fleet can be used by the RMN to deduce their own weakest points and therefore the SLN's likely targets — especially inputting the loss of junction use, factoring in astrography and the mechanics of raids. The algorithm that the Havenites used to soil Honor's undies is still available. After the League hits a few targets, they're going to be set up, just like the Salamander was set up and then the SLN is going to be torn a new ass. If Honor fell for the Boogeyman, so too will the "dunce caps." I know exactly what the phrase will be for Caparelli to begin the countdown...

"Sir, it has started."

"I see. Initiate "Dunce Caps."

Also, I don't see RMN shipping being as vulnerable as everybody else.

1. They have a vastly smaller circumference of deliveries now, since Lacoon II. That gives them a higher density of escorts made available, from the suddenly routeless escorts.

2. With all of the junctions closed, the League has to go the long way around to get into place. They better send enough ships to support a long campaign, or it's an even longer way to travel back to League space, licking your wounds and limping with your tail between your legs.

3. Astrography seems to be against the SLN if raiding the Haven sector, where junction use is unavailable. It isn't the same as raiding someone from your own sector.

E.g.
I'm on the East Coast. It'd be like me driving all the way to California using only the backroads, and all of the scenic routes, just to go and rob someone. Then limping back home with my radiator leaking cause I got all shot up — limping back home while using the same backroads and scenic routes, with a busted radiator! Fix it, then return to do it all over again.

The SLN has little to no experience commerce raiding. They didn't raid commerce. They outright took what they wanted. And they aren't too bright in figuring out that the effect of having the MWJ means that the GA enjoys the advantage in interior lines of communication and movement.

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cthia wrote:
The SLN have little to no experience commerce raiding. They didn't commerce raid. They outright took what they wanted. And they aren't to bright in figuring out the effect of the MWJ means to the GA having interior lines of communication and movement.

Oh, the SLN has experience; at least as far as Frontier Fleet is concerned. But that is only the experience a 18-year-old bully would collect, if he is terrorizing a 5-year-old child. Nothing to write home about, if he faces suddenly another 18-year-old; especially, if his new opponent is able to use Kung-Fu or Karate.

Regarding the MWJ - they got the news of New Tuscany and Spindle 3 month earlier than they would, using their own official route. That, if nothing else, should give them a major hint what that means for communication and force deployment.

Eagleeye wrote:

cthia wrote:
The SLN have little to no experience commerce raiding. They didn't commerce raid. They outright took what they wanted. And they aren't to bright in figuring out the effect of the MWJ means to the GA having interior lines of communication and movement.

Oh, the SLN has experience; at least as far as Frontier Fleet is concerned. But that is only the experience a 18-year-old bully would collect, if he is terrorizing a 5-year-old child. Nothing to write home about, if he faces suddenly another 18-year-old; especially, if his new opponent is able to use Kung-Fu or Karate.

Regarding the MWJ - they got the news of New Tuscany and Spindle 3 month earlier than they would, using their own official route. That, if nothing else, should give them a major hint what that means for communication and force deployment.

The problem is that they are desperate. It's an awful plan, an almost certain disaster but what else can they do? If they pull together the whole Battle Fleet with its thousands of ships, they can only hope that the GA will run out of missiles. And the losses would be intolerable. There'd be millions of personnel lost and that would create issues. Probably mutinies. Sailors don't like to face certain death scenarios particularly when they know they are fighting for billionaires.

The League could surrender but that would cost the mandarins their jobs...they'd rather kill millions.

A lot of raiders will get wiped out. They will basically be used against planets that have rebelled. But as has often been noted, their communications stink. And, more to the point, it would not be all that difficult to find the bases they have been sent from.

Letting the real rulers of the League, the transstellars, know that they will attack planets that build raiders, might also play a big role.

Chances are, things will fall apart. Remember this is the end of the story arc. There will be a cooling off period (well, probably) until we see Bernard Raoul. Chances are, we will be seeing the collapse of hunks of the League. It will still exist but have far fewer members.

Eagleeye wrote:

cthia wrote:
The SLN have little to no experience commerce raiding. They didn't commerce raid. They outright took what they wanted. And they aren't to bright in figuring out the effect of the MWJ means to the GA having interior lines of communication and movement.

Oh, the SLN has experience; at least as far as Frontier Fleet is concerned. But that is only the experience a 18-year-old bully would collect, if he is terrorizing a 5-year-old child. Nothing to write home about, if he faces suddenly another 18-year-old; especially, if his new opponent is able to use Kung-Fu or Karate.

Regarding the MWJ - they got the news of New Tuscany and Spindle 3 month earlier than they would, using their own official route. That, if nothing else, should give them a major hint what that means for communication and force deployment.

Pardon my bold and underline of should.

You are absolutely correct. It should. But do you think it did? It has to permeate through all of the SLN and civilian leaders, not to just a couple of Solarians, one who I know for a fact is afraid to open his mouth.

In the RMN there are only a couple Youngs and Santinos, and for the most part everyone is a cog engaging a sprocket. In the SLN, the rule of thumb is Santinos and Youngs. Or at least their counterparts of Crandal and Byng. Strategy, tactics and the obvious doesn't permeate void minds. Much less void minds literally operating out of a vacuum, add arrogance.

I suppose it boils down to whether you will bet your money on it?

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Oh, the SLN has experience; at least as far as Frontier Fleet is concerned. But that is only the experience a 18-year-old bully would collect, if he is terrorizing a 5-year-old child. Nothing to write home about, if he faces suddenly another 18-year-old; especially, if his new opponent is able to use Kung-Fu or Karate.

More like the white belt going against the 5th degree Black belt. At least as far as Haven is concerned. They wrote the book. Manticore concentrated mostly on Piracy suppression. Together, they are a formidable foe for organized commerce raiding. Even before the snippet, who didn't know BF commerce raiding would be cut-and-paste Condition Buccaneer?

the SLN, the rule of thumb is Santinos and Youngs. Or at least their counterparts of Crandal and Byng. Strategy, tactics and the obvious doesn't permeate void minds. Much less void minds literally operating out of a vacuum, add arrogance.

I think The Santinos and Youngs were weded out by the Peeps... oops, I mean RoH, after the resumption of hostilities. The others should have been beached on half pay.

pappilon wrote:

Oh, the SLN has experience; at least as far as Frontier Fleet is concerned. But that is only the experience a 18-year-old bully would collect, if he is terrorizing a 5-year-old child. Nothing to write home about, if he faces suddenly another 18-year-old; especially, if his new opponent is able to use Kung-Fu or Karate.

More like the white belt going against the 5th degree Black belt. At least as far as Haven is concerned. They wrote the book. Manticore concentrated mostly on Piracy suppression. Together, they are a formidable foe for organized commerce raiding. Even before the snippet, who didn't know BF commerce raiding would be cut-and-paste Condition Buccaneer?

the SLN, the rule of thumb is Santinos and Youngs. Or at least their counterparts of Crandal and Byng. Strategy, tactics and the obvious doesn't permeate void minds. Much less void minds literally operating out of a vacuum, add arrogance.

I think The Santinos and Youngs were weded out by the Peeps... oops, I mean RoH, after the resumption of hostilities. The others should have been beached on half pay.

LOL

We agree. I don't really think there are any Youngs and Santinos around either. I just didn't want to sound presumptuous.

My father always taught us to plan for the worst case scenario. Because if you don't have the best case licked, you may as well stay home.

And I plan for the worst case scenario.

Doctrine has changed across the board since the last time the SLN has been in a serious kerfuffle. Matter of fact, the word kerfuffle has gone into ill repute since the SLN last conducted any serious and successful exercises. Let alone adopted a viable commerce raiding strategy. And against an adversary who literally helped write the book on it? pfft With assistance from the other author as well? pfft pfft

Adding in the fact that the SLN has no idea of force requirements. If you can't wrap your mind around what's shooting at you (across the board) and what you're shooting at, then how can you formulate a viable raiding strategy? The RHN and the RMN knew exactly what the capabilities of the other were, less any surprises. The SLN don't know either the standard capabilities or know to expect surprises. They don't know to expect another shoe to fall.

They'll end up getting their chops busted before their commerce raiding strategy can gain any momentum.

The GA has a tried and true playbook and they can use the canned plays all month long before having to get fancy.

The SLN are the barbarians when it comes to strategy and tactics.

The dinosaurs wouldn't fall for their tactics.

Actually I've seen a white belt defeat a black belt.

She was a 5ft nothing junior instructor with a black belt, he was a 6'8 beginer and accidently fell on her.

Hummm... I hope the RMN isn't as full of its own elan as posters on this thread apparently are...

Don

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n7axw wrote:Hummm... I hope the RMN isn't as full of its own elan as posters on this thread apparently are...

Don

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Oh the SLN will get a victory or 2, especially if they completely overwhelm the defenders by sheer numbers. A well planned attack with the right hardware can blow away a convoy’s defenses, or shred the ready forces defending a translation point. But when you are trading a couple BCs for a handful of LACs or DDs, it quickly becomes expensive, especially when you require a massive fleet train of parts, consumables, and support resources to keep up the raids. And after a few such attacks, the GA, with the inside communications loop, will beef up whatever was vulnerable before and make such attacks even more expensive. And the SLN may even “win” some there – but is it truly a victory, when you lose more tons of combat power than your opponents? You may be able to afford 2:1, but 5:1 or 10:1 repeatedly?

No, for the reasons listed by those above, the strategy is ultimately a fool’s errand and doomed to fail.

Theemile wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hummm... I hope the RMN isn't as full of its own elan as posters on this thread apparently are...

Don

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Oh the SLN will get a victory or 2, especially if they completely overwhelm the defenders by sheer numbers. A well planned attack with the right hardware can blow away a convoy’s defenses, or shred the ready forces defending a translation point. But when you are trading a couple BCs for a handful of LACs or DDs, it quickly becomes expensive, especially when you require a massive fleet train of parts, consumables, and support resources to keep up the raids. And after a few such attacks, the GA, with the inside communications loop, will beef up whatever was vulnerable before and make such attacks even more expensive. And the SLN may even “win” some there – but is it truly a victory, when you lose more tons of combat power than your opponents? You may be able to afford 2:1, but 5:1 or 10:1 repeatedly?

No, for the reasons listed by those above, the strategy is ultimately a fool’s errand and doomed to fail.

What was that quote about professionals and studying logistics? Those armatures of the SLN will indeed amass enough firepower to overwhelm a few convoys and newly liberated systems. 80-90 ships can do that if deployed wisely. Now, what happens when their bases are destroyed by a squadron or two of Apollo SDPs? They gots bupkiss to continue their raids or repair the damage the division of Rolands will do to those task forces. We don't have to discuss what a squadron of Sag-Cs will do 'cause the survivors will be floating in escape pods watching the wreckage of their task force drift into the abyss.

If the SLN had a margin of inferiority a bit closer to the GA, this may work as a delaying tactic. Given the margin as it stands, no chance in hell.