Solarian warships/tech : "What is possible!"

PeterZ wrote:

kzt wrote:
In order to engage in deficit spending, someone has to be willing to lend. Potential lenders sort of require the borrower to survive long enough to repay their debts. I doubt the transstellars are deaf, dumb or blind enough buy SL debt going forward. I doubt individual investors will want enough of those bonds to finance much of an improved war machine. If the SL federalllies begin to use force, even fewer entities will buy SL bonds.

Short of confiscation, the SL federal government has run out of sources of money or will very shortly.

So who was lending money to the USSR, Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in 1944?

Peter... Open a damned history book.
Napoleonic wars
US Civil War
USSR
Nazi Germany
Japan
Republic of China
Zimbabwe a few years ago
Venezuela today

Who will lend? No one needs to lend the government money. THEY PRINT from thin air. Just as governments have ALWAYS done. OR they Print and tax etc. Just as they are doing today.

Who accepts money? Anyone who wants to live. Government has money in one hand and a loaded gun in the other... Which do you want? You choose. Gov says, "we take your business from you or you accept our money. You have 2 seconds, you pick..." Period end of story.

This "finance" system only runs into problems when you have to buy resources from OUTSIDE your system. Other than the huge income inequality such a system generates as those who have the money and the power get their hands on the fake made up printed money first which means they get to buy what they want first before everyone else's money inflates.

You might have noticed what is going on today.... The have's who have power and their hands on the fake printed out of thin air money first, are gaining against the common Jack/Jill as those in power have excess money they get to spend while the common Jack/Jill's have the same amount. They got depreciated without their consent.

Ultimately this will lead to a black market.... Check out Venezuela

Relax,

The federal government are not the suppliers of anything. If they send worthless credits anywhere, the local government has to clean up the mess. Why on Earth would a local government visit that crap on itself? Recall that news services' dispatch boats are still transiting the WHJ network. The locals will get news of what's going on but nothing else is getting through. The Feds can't force anything on the locals who are sovereign in every way during times of peace. The locals have to accept those funds in exchange for hard goods it sends out to the Feds. If the locals refuse to accept fantasy the money, they don't have as many problems when things get worse. So, no way the Feds can "print" money without the complicity of the local government. How many politicians will play that footloose with the interests of their constituencies? Not many at all.

As for lending money, if the local government won't accept credits offered by the Feds, who the blazes will lend good credits to them? Who would trust the forthcoming payments?

Don't just open a history book, apply the forces at play in those books to the situation being discussed in the story. The Feds can't successfully issue enough worthless credits to do squat.

PeterZ wrote:Relax,

The federal government are not the suppliers of anything. If they send worthless credits anywhere, the local government has to clean up the mess. Why on Earth would a local government visit that crap on itself? Recall that news services' dispatch boats are still transiting the WHJ network. The locals will get news of what's going on but nothing else is getting through. The Feds can't force anything on the locals who are sovereign in every way during times of peace. The locals have to accept those funds in exchange for hard goods it sends out to the Feds. If the locals refuse to accept fantasy the money, they don't have as many problems when things get worse. So, no way the Feds can "print" money without the complicity of the local government. How many politicians will play that footloose with the interests of their constituencies? Not many at all.

As for lending money, if the local government won't accept credits offered by the Feds, who the blazes will lend good credits to them? Who would trust the forthcoming payments?

Don't just open a history book, apply the forces at play in those books to the situation being discussed in the story. The Feds can't successfully issue enough worthless credits to do squat.

Well they can if they're willing to drop the cloak of acticing (more or less) legally and go with naked force. As long as the SLN is mostly obeying orders from New Chicago the Mandarins have the force to compel some level of compliance with their decisions and fiat money. (How far they'd get convincing those governments to play along without the iron fist is a more interesting question).

OTOH once you resort to naked threats of force you better hope that no of the systems you're threatening can come up with a viable alternative - because unless you also manage to lay down some inspired propaganda they're going to be cooperating only the minimum necessary and trying to build up their own power (or get outside help) to restore their sovereignty...

Jonathan_S wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Relax,

The federal government are not the suppliers of anything. If they send worthless credits anywhere, the local government has to clean up the mess. Why on Earth would a local government visit that crap on itself? Recall that news services' dispatch boats are still transiting the WHJ network. The locals will get news of what's going on but nothing else is getting through. The Feds can't force anything on the locals who are sovereign in every way during times of peace. The locals have to accept those funds in exchange for hard goods it sends out to the Feds. If the locals refuse to accept fantasy the money, they don't have as many problems when things get worse. So, no way the Feds can "print" money without the complicity of the local government. How many politicians will play that footloose with the interests of their constituencies? Not many at all.

As for lending money, if the local government won't accept credits offered by the Feds, who the blazes will lend good credits to them? Who would trust the forthcoming payments?

Don't just open a history book, apply the forces at play in those books to the situation being discussed in the story. The Feds can't successfully issue enough worthless credits to do squat.

Well they can if they're willing to drop the cloak of acticing (more or less) legally and go with naked force. As long as the SLN is mostly obeying orders from New Chicago the Mandarins have the force to compel some level of compliance with their decisions and fiat money. (How far they'd get convincing those governments to play along without the iron fist is a more interesting question).

OTOH once you resort to naked threats of force you better hope that no of the systems you're threatening can come up with a viable alternative - because unless you also manage to lay down some inspired propaganda they're going to be cooperating only the minimum necessary and trying to build up their own power (or get outside help) to restore their sovereignty...

Agreed on all points. The cost of using force means parking a large task force like that on Hypatia on each recalcitrant system. How many ships does that leave for commerce raiding? How effective will weapons R&D be when researchers are compelled to do the research? How willing will even Technodyne be if the know their payments are worthless? Pretty quickly the SL will be the imperialists and the GA the liberators. No, the SL can't print enough money to matter and the attempt will only improve the GA's position with League member systems.

kzt wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:The BC(P)s that exterminated Adm Byng didn't need to tow pods as they carry the pods internally.

There were no BC(p)s present.

I stand corrected. I thought HMS Artemis was the same class as her former command HMS Agamemnon and HMS Ajax.

Weird Harold wrote:

kzt wrote:There were no BC(p)s present.

I stand corrected. I thought HMS Artemis was the same class as her former command HMS Agamemnon and HMS Ajax.

Artemis is a greek god, not a Homeric hero. She has more in common with Nike than in either Agamemnon or Ajax.

PeterZ wrote:Artemis is a greek god, not a Homeric hero. She has more in common with Nike than in either Agamemnon or Ajax.

All well and good for a Greek scholar to know the fine details like that. Unfortunately I'm NOT a Greek scholar and all three start with A.

PeterZ wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Well they can if they're willing to drop the cloak of acticing (more or less) legally and go with naked force. As long as the SLN is mostly obeying orders from New Chicago the Mandarins have the force to compel some level of compliance with their decisions and fiat money. (How far they'd get convincing those governments to play along without the iron fist is a more interesting question).

OTOH once you resort to naked threats of force you better hope that no of the systems you're threatening can come up with a viable alternative - because unless you also manage to lay down some inspired propaganda they're going to be cooperating only the minimum necessary and trying to build up their own power (or get outside help) to restore their sovereignty...

Agreed on all points. The cost of using force means parking a large task force like that on Hypatia on each recalcitrant system. How many ships does that leave for commerce raiding? How effective will weapons R&D be when researchers are compelled to do the research? How willing will even Technodyne be if the know their payments are worthless? Pretty quickly the SL will be the imperialists and the GA the liberators. No, the SL can't print enough money to matter and the attempt will only improve the GA's position with League member systems.

You are missing how humanity works.
Take off your rule-of-law, peaceful hand-off of power to political rivals, rose colored glasses from your western upbringing. The SL is NOT operating in that manner. They are an oligarchy. How do oligarchies operate?

People in power do not give one damn about the future. All they care about is staying in power. They do not give a damn if their fake money eventually depreciates till it is worth less than toilet paper(see Venezuela). All they care about is getting through the current crisis with THEM still in power. If it means destroying, then they destroy as long as they remain in power.

That is why the "SL", AKA group of 5, will issue new bonds, money, etc. Sure, it will eventually be worth nothing. Those in power do not care. As long as they stay in power longer and keep riding the tiger, even if it means riding the tiger down in flames.

A chit, a credit, a dollar, a peso, etc is only worth what people say it is worth and everyone more or ~less agree. Those in power have a GIGANTIC say in how much something is "worth". Likewise they have a vested interest in staying in power, saving face, and hiding how much debt there truly is, especially when they get to print the "money". Money, without physical backing(none in the Honorverse) is just another word for TRUST in reality.

So, reality says with the financial problems headed to the SL due to war, its "value" AKA TRUST, is already floundering, so printing more of it truly doesn't matter. They can blame it on the Manties and keep on printing.

Relax wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Agreed on all points. The cost of using force means parking a large task force like that on Hypatia on each recalcitrant system. How many ships does that leave for commerce raiding? How effective will weapons R&D be when researchers are compelled to do the research? How willing will even Technodyne be if the know their payments are worthless? Pretty quickly the SL will be the imperialists and the GA the liberators. No, the SL can't print enough money to matter and the attempt will only improve the GA's position with League member systems.

You are missing how humanity works.
Take off your rule-of-law, peaceful hand-off of power to political rivals, rose colored glasses from your western upbringing. The SL is NOT operating in that manner. They are an oligarchy. How do oligarchies operate?

People in power do not give one damn about the future. All they care about is staying in power. They do not give a damn if their fake money eventually depreciates till it is worth less than toilet paper(see Venezuela). All they care about is getting through the current crisis with THEM still in power. If it means destroying, then they destroy as long as they remain in power.

That is why the "SL", AKA group of 5, will issue new bonds, money, etc. Sure, it will eventually be worth nothing. Those in power do not care. As long as they stay in power longer and keep riding the tiger, even if it means riding the tiger down in flames.

A chit, a credit, a dollar, a peso, etc is only worth what people say it is worth and everyone more or ~less agree. Those in power have a GIGANTIC say in how much something is "worth". Likewise they have a vested interest in staying in power, saving face, and hiding how much debt there truly is, especially when they get to print the "money". Money, without physical backing(none in the Honorverse) is just another word for TRUST in reality.

So, reality says with the financial problems headed to the SL due to war, its "value" AKA TRUST, is already floundering, so printing more of it truly doesn't matter. They can blame it on the Manties and keep on printing.

And you are projecting quite a bit into your post, rather than addressing the facts at hand.
The SLN are staffed by citizens of sovereign nations. The same nations they will be asked to act like pirates towards. Who will hold their loyalty? The oligarchs of the Federal government, or the democratically elected government of their star nation of birth?

The dynamic of using force is not so simple or as uniform as you project. Those actually applying force have to be willing to follow their orders. And as corrupt as the SL has proven to be, those being ordered to act like muggers know their bosses are broke, flush out of money. Who will they act the thug for; those willing to be thugs, that is? Certainly not for a broke boss.

In order for what you outline to work, the federal government has to be the most powerful force around and control all the resources. They don't. They have the SLN and marines who are citizens first of the the local star nations with the full treasuries. Why rob those treasuries when those governments of birth for those SLN ratings and officers will be willing to hire you. There may be FF units made up of citizens from the Protectorates willing to act the thug against SL member nations, but those units are out in the verge.

No, the SL Feds can't use the SLN as pirates against the member star nations. There are too many incentives to be applied to break the SLN apart for that to work. It doesn't matter how the oligarchs think, the loyalties and motivations of their would be foot soldiers mitigate against such a plan working.

My impression is that the SL is a lot like the UN, which is more accurately called the United Dictators, as about 60% of the nations that make up the UN are in fact considered to be less than free. (It has been a lot higher percentage than that in the past too.) So there are a LOT of SL members who should be pretty damn worried about having truth, justice and the Manticoran way of life delivered to them at pulsar point.

So no, they are not going to roll over and die.