kzt wrote:runsforcelery wrote:All reasonable and cogently argued. I will say, however, that the Sollies come up with a few little surprises of their own. There's a scene in which Sonja and Shannon are discussing probable Solly responses to their war-fighting inferiority and both of them comment on the fact that there's nothing wrong with the League's general technology . . . which suggests that the Sollies are beginning from a better starting point vis-a-vis the GA than the PRH vis-a-vis the SKM. Now, I would argue (but, hey, what do I know?) that the Peeps had a much more realistic awareness of their problems and dug in a heck of a lot sooner, but that doesn't change the fact that the League has a lot of technological knowledge if it ever gets itself organizations ized to start using it.
They have sufficient industrial, financial and technological resources that a tiny fraction of the league getting organized could be a real problem.
The League doesn't have enough time to develop and build weapons to defeat the GA head on. Their cash flows will be drastically reduced very soon now. By the time they communicate to systems willing to materially support the federal government, Honor will be orbiting Sol. I can see the private sector reprogramming tac comps to manage the greater capabilities of the GA missiles. I can see software upgrades to improve sensors and EW from current hardware. All these make the SLN platforms more survivable. That won't be saying those ships can defeat the GA vessels, only that the GA vessels will have to expend more resources to defeat any upgraded SLN unit.
20 years down the road? Yeah, the Old Core SL worlds that want to hold a grudge will be nasty enemies. Any time soon? The quicker the SL surrenders the less proof will exist for just how outclassed they are. Everything will be speculation and PR hacks can begin to shape an alternative narrative. If the SLN is pushed to fight, there will be more stories of staggeringly out numbered GA units either defeating their pathetic SLN opponents than can be discarded as SEM propaganda. In such circumstances the influence of the federal government completely evaporates, rather than is simply severely diminished.
If the SL gives up quickly, they may consolidate a significant rump state successor. They may actually manage to keep some clients in the Protectorates. If the SL fights, the resulting successors will be much smaller. The GA will make sure ALL Verge and Protectorate systems are independent.