Ramifications of absorbing fractured League systems?

I suspect that the ramifications are bad enough that they wont fo it.

But I could see Manticore/Haven helping systems set up their own little empires or Trade Unions.

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The RMN task forces shown going down the chains of wormhole bridges really have no time nor orders to actualy do anything about what is going on in the systems that own or control the termini that are being siezed.
The intent is to take and hold both sides of each wormhole to enforce the Lacoon II mandates of not letting any SL flagged vessels through but more importantly to deny the SLN or any of the League Member SDFs their use. Mantiocre moved to keep the wormholes from becoming attack routes for the SLN against Manticore and the GA. It is also going to bugger not only the movement of much of the trade into/out of the SL but screw with SLN/OFS logistics.

I would suppose that IF the RMN Lacoon II forces were going to be letting any commercial shipping thought the captured wormholes they might even collect the fees and remit to the local system (that ownes the termini) it's share of the transit fees but escrow that which which would have accrued to the SL and it's buracracy. That would mean that any neutral commercial (as opposed to GA logistics traffic) going through the termini would pay the standard fee for that trip. This presumes that local Astro Control would be maintained but done withoug SL personel if not directly assumed by SEM personel on one of the warships.
For the most part, there would be little the local system could do about it. That said system is like Saltash or any number of effectively dictatorships really can't concern the SEM blocking forces. Manticore and Haven don't have a lot or resources to go looking to forment revolution, SEM has more than it really wants just responding to requests for help. Getting way out down a wormhole chain and peeling off warships to go looking for potential revolutionaries is a really bad idea.

lyonheart wrote:Hello PeterZ,

Kudos for another excellent piece of analysis!

100 LY equates to just over 12 days by db, or 24 days round trip, although streak drive could up this radius limit to 150 LY, ie more than tripling the potential control volume [actually 3.375 times] for much larger potential polities [~475 systems as you mentioned], but it could also increase the likelihood of conflict where the 150 LY limit overlaps when the 100 LY limit didn't.

If you're right and RFC has buried this datum, without even hinting at it [so typical!] that could be the rough maximum limit Honor may have had in mind for the Harrington plan, albeit preferably much smaller.

Securing the hyper bridges at both ends seems a very major RMN objective, with basing rights wherever possible next, albeit the locals may not be that receptive until they realise the SL is toast.

I suspect many if not most host systems, given the inadequate if not non-existent defenses the SLN had in place or not, will prefer having a GA TF always in residence, being now rather more welcome thru bilateral defense and commerce treaties etc.

The RF already has or will have when it surfaces, one public hyper bridge we currently know of, ie Visigoth.

We don't have coordinates or map locations for almost all of the rest, though Mannerheim is near Mesa; but I think Visigoth is too important to the GA to overlook or let go, which makes it the most likely first friction point between the RF and GA [probably before the RF announces it self]; very interesting times indeed as the treecats get involved at the meetings...

Given Visigoth's proximity to Beowulf and its former SL friends NTM the GA, and the hyper bridge to Mesa, where 10th RMN fleet and 2nd RHN fleet are currently hanging out, I doubt it can or will object too much for now.

All we learned from SftS was the leaders and system names, and Detweiler's later instructions regarding their first victims which would double their numbers though it wasn't going to be easy for most of them.

My impression is that things are moving much more rapidly than the MAlign planned on or expected and stitches are going to be dropped, so the GA will have opportunities to learn more if they're observant.

Eloise and Elizabeth knew from the first that Mesa would be abandoned by the MAlign, which would have a secret refuge, that it would have cats-paws with impeccable credentials NTM moral standing in opposition to Manpower and genetic slavery, so I've expected they'll be rather suspicious of the RF as soon as they show up.

Still, its going to be a doozy of a book and story arc!

L

On that bolded note, Lyonheart, I don't believe Visigoth will do anything except cheer the SEM on. They will cheer visibly and with great vigor. Why? Well, they are likely one of the first few secessionists. They would likely seek closer ties to the GA. They are in short, the MAlign's Trojan Horse.

Consider the MAlign's long range planning. They understand the apparent 100 LY limit. They need to gain access to enough WHJ and termini to build a network that connects enough potential star nations that their new union will survive against the League rump states. We know this because the two systems of the RF we have seen each have a WHJ. They each may have more, but each has at least one. It follows that the MAlign has been targeting systems with key WHJ for subversion centuries. One strongly suspects they have been successful.

Also, the subversion has been very selective. Key leadership positions have been co-opted, but the remainder of the system remains ignorant of the MAlign. It appears that most of these systems have fostered an anti-genetic slavery attitude. They may have a more liberal view of genetic research, but nothing scandalous.

Visigoth's population, then, may well be easily led to be very pro-Manticore. That sentiment may well have spiked with the GA conquest of Mesa. If Visigoth requests closer relations with the GA right away, the GA would be fools not to accept based on the surface conditions. Sure, Admiral Gold Peak will have her treecats parse any meeting and all of Visigoth's leadership. The MAlign would ensure that only the non-Star Line representatives meet with the Manties. They could cover up their agents if they really try.

When one considers the MAlign Grand Plan(TM), one has to conclude that Visigoth is key to controlling the galactic South-East of the SL's Verge and Protectorates via the Mesa hyper-bridge. That makes it one of the regional capitals of their once and future Camelot. Since they are on the border between the Shell and Core worlds and less than 100 LY from Beowulf, that puts them on the Galactic North-East of the Core. That would indicate Visigoth can act as a regional capital for a goodly chunk of the Core and Shell as well.

All that was set up pretty early on the MAlign planning. Now, in a blink of an immortal's eye, their plans are ruined. The GA controls Mesa and its hyper bridge. Visigoth's population has been conditioned to be pro-Manty and that means its entire sector of the Core and Shell the MAlign has prepared to look to Visigoth for guidance is now ripe for the picking for the GA. Visigoth's MAlign leadership either rides this hexapuma or is eaten quickly.

What's a genetically engineered elitist gonna do? Why, they should do everything they had planned to do....and then join the GA. That's right. They continue to act as the sector political center of balance, but do so as part of the Grand Alliance. That's the best way to get all the tech goodies AND prepare the knife to slip into the GA's back at the opportune moment. Visigoth won't be as useful in the Verge as they had planned, but they still can form alliances with their Core and Shell world neighbors. The Verge sectors the MAlign had been looking at will now look to Talbot and through Visigoth to the SEM/Grand Alliance.

That looks yo me like the MAlign's best play for Visigoth. Thoughts?

PeterZ wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hello PeterZ,

Kudos for another excellent piece of analysis!

100 LY equates to just over 12 days by db, or 24 days round trip, although streak drive could up this radius limit to 150 LY, ie more than tripling the potential control volume [actually 3.375 times] for much larger potential polities [~475 systems as you mentioned], but it could also increase the likelihood of conflict where the 150 LY limit overlaps when the 100 LY limit didn't.

If you're right and RFC has buried this datum, without even hinting at it [so typical!] that could be the rough maximum limit Honor may have had in mind for the Harrington plan, albeit preferably much smaller.

Securing the hyper bridges at both ends seems a very major RMN objective, with basing rights wherever possible next, albeit the locals may not be that receptive until they realise the SL is toast.

I suspect many if not most host systems, given the inadequate if not non-existent defenses the SLN had in place or not, will prefer having a GA TF always in residence, being now rather more welcome thru bilateral defense and commerce treaties etc.

The RF already has or will have when it surfaces, one public hyper bridge we currently know of, ie Visigoth.

We don't have coordinates or map locations for almost all of the rest, though Mannerheim is near Mesa; but I think Visigoth is too important to the GA to overlook or let go, which makes it the most likely first friction point between the RF and GA [probably before the RF announces it self]; very interesting times indeed as the treecats get involved at the meetings...

Given Visigoth's proximity to Beowulf and its former SL friends NTM the GA, and the hyper bridge to Mesa, where 10th RMN fleet and 2nd RHN fleet are currently hanging out, I doubt it can or will object too much for now.

All we learned from SftS was the leaders and system names, and Detweiler's later instructions regarding their first victims which would double their numbers though it wasn't going to be easy for most of them.

My impression is that things are moving much more rapidly than the MAlign planned on or expected and stitches are going to be dropped, so the GA will have opportunities to learn more if they're observant.

Eloise and Elizabeth knew from the first that Mesa would be abandoned by the MAlign, which would have a secret refuge, that it would have cats-paws with impeccable credentials NTM moral standing in opposition to Manpower and genetic slavery, so I've expected they'll be rather suspicious of the RF as soon as they show up.

Still, its going to be a doozy of a book and story arc!

L

On that bolded note, Lyonheart, I don't believe Visigoth will do anything except cheer the SEM on. They will cheer visibly and with great vigor. Why? Well, they are likely one of the first few secessionists. They would likely seek closer ties to the GA. They are in short, the MAlign's Trojan Horse.

Consider the MAlign's long range planning. They understand the apparent 100 LY limit. They need to gain access to enough WHJ and termini to build a network that connects enough potential star nations that their new union will survive against the League rump states. We know this because the two systems of the RF we have seen each have a WHJ. They each may have more, but each has at least one. It follows that the MAlign has been targeting systems with key WHJ for subversion centuries. One strongly suspects they have been successful.

Also, the subversion has been very selective. Key leadership positions have been co-opted, but the remainder of the system remains ignorant of the MAlign. It appears that most of these systems have fostered an anti-genetic slavery attitude. They may have a more liberal view of genetic research, but nothing scandalous.

Visigoth's population, then, may well be easily led to be very pro-Manticore. That sentiment may well have spiked with the GA conquest of Mesa. If Visigoth requests closer relations with the GA right away, the GA would be fools not to accept based on the surface conditions. Sure, Admiral Gold Peak will have her treecats parse any meeting and all of Visigoth's leadership. The MAlign would ensure that only the non-Star Line representatives meet with the Manties. They could cover up their agents if they really try.

When one considers the MAlign Grand Plan(TM), one has to conclude that Visigoth is key to controlling the galactic South-East of the SL's Verge and Protectorates via the Mesa hyper-bridge. That makes it one of the regional capitals of their once and future Camelot. Since they are on the border between the Shell and Core worlds and less than 100 LY from Beowulf, that puts them on the Galactic North-East of the Core. That would indicate Visigoth can act as a regional capital for a goodly chunk of the Core and Shell as well.

All that was set up pretty early on the MAlign planning. Now, in a blink of an immortal's eye, their plans are ruined. The GA controls Mesa and its hyper bridge. Visigoth's population has been conditioned to be pro-Manty and that means its entire sector of the Core and Shell the MAlign has prepared to look to Visigoth for guidance is now ripe for the picking for the GA. Visigoth's MAlign leadership either rides this hexapuma or is eaten quickly.

What's a genetically engineered elitist gonna do? Why, they should do everything they had planned to do....and then join the GA. That's right. They continue to act as the sector political center of balance, but do so as part of the Grand Alliance. That's the best way to get all the tech goodies AND prepare the knife to slip into the GA's back at the opportune moment. Visigoth won't be as useful in the Verge as they had planned, but they still can form alliances with their Core and Shell world neighbors. The Verge sectors the MAlign had been looking at will now look to Talbot and through Visigoth to the SEM/Grand Alliance.

That looks yo me like the MAlign's best play for Visigoth. Thoughts?

If I were Visigoth, I would play all sides. When the RMN shows up with the Scary cruisers which can kill SDs, I would instruct my brave navy to form a distant cordon around the region, to protect friendly shipping from any incidents. Meanwhile I would enter negotations with the Manty commander, protesting, and attempting to negotiate limited use, while communicating through the local Beowulf attache understanding and cooperation, and the need to keep up facades.

I would make sure the local news pushes all sides, so the populace isn't confused by weird political jumps.

After a period of time, I would take the Manty Carrot and accept neutrality in return for control of the wormhole. by this time, the SL should be ripping appart, and the plan, as written, could continue.

Theemile wrote:
If I were Visigoth, I would play all sides. When the RMN shows up with the Scary cruisers which can kill SDs, I would instruct my brave navy to form a distant cordon around the region, to protect friendly shipping from any incidents. Meanwhile I would enter negotations with the Manty commander, protesting, and attempting to negotiate limited use, while communicating through the local Beowulf attache understanding and cooperation, and the need to keep up facades.

I would make sure the local news pushes all sides, so the populace isn't confused by weird political jumps.

After a period of time, I would take the Manty Carrot and accept neutrality in return for control of the wormhole. by this time, the SL should be ripping appart, and the plan, as written, could continue.

I don't think the plan can continue as written. The SEM will not give up Mesa. They will keep that planet occupied until they are confident they have all the information on the MAlign available on Mesa. Even afterwards, they would like to develop something stronger than a mere alliance with Mesa and the Seccies.

History shows that newly released slave based societies fare poorly when left to their own devices. Sure Torch works well enough after all the Manpower employees were removed. Mesa doesn't have that option. There are citizens of Mesa that have no where to go. If the Seccies turn Mesa into a Haiti or South Africa, who wins in the long run? The planet will be a holy mess and a gaping wound in the side of the SEM!

I do see a combination of Torch and the SEM shepherding Mesa towards independence or accepting its admission into the SEM. A part of me could easily see RFC guiding plot elements into that direction. Incorporating the Mesa would meet their perceived responsibility towards all the people on Mesa as well as securing an important hyper-bridge terminus. That terminus along with the Wlokclawek-Sarducci hyper-bridge gives the SEM/GA 3 hyper-bridge termini in the region, making the region much more attractive for commerce.

Under either of those circumstances(Mesa annexed or as a Protectorate), Visigoth knows there will be a powerful SEM presence on Mesa for quite some time. The original plan goes out the airlock. They cannot extend their presence into that region of the Verge. They cannot stem the flow of Manty trade and influence through Mesa into their corner of the Core Old League. They effectively lose between 15%-25% of their planned future holdings. Not just lose it, they lose it to the SEM who will consolidate those systems into their (and Beowulf's) sphere of influence.

The discovery of Lynx and the previous changes to their plan pretty much led to Visigoth's predicament.

PeterZ wrote:

Theemile wrote:
If I were Visigoth, I would play all sides. When the RMN shows up with the Scary cruisers which can kill SDs, I would instruct my brave navy to form a distant cordon around the region, to protect friendly shipping from any incidents. Meanwhile I would enter negotations with the Manty commander, protesting, and attempting to negotiate limited use, while communicating through the local Beowulf attache understanding and cooperation, and the need to keep up facades.

I would make sure the local news pushes all sides, so the populace isn't confused by weird political jumps.

After a period of time, I would take the Manty Carrot and accept neutrality in return for control of the wormhole. by this time, the SL should be ripping appart, and the plan, as written, could continue.

I don't think the plan can continue as written. The SEM will not give up Mesa. They will keep that planet occupied until they are confident they have all the information on the MAlign available on Mesa. Even afterwards, they would like to develop something stronger than a mere alliance with Mesa and the Seccies.

History shows that newly released slave based societies fare poorly when left to their own devices. Sure Torch works well enough after all the Manpower employees were removed. Mesa doesn't have that option. There are citizens of Mesa that have no where to go. If the Seccies turn Mesa into a Haiti or South Africa, who wins in the long run? The planet will be a holy mess and a gaping wound in the side of the SEM!

I do see a combination of Torch and the SEM shepherding Mesa towards independence or accepting its admission into the SEM. A part of me could easily see RFC guiding plot elements into that direction. Incorporating the Mesa would meet their perceived responsibility towards all the people on Mesa as well as securing an important hyper-bridge terminus. That terminus along with the Wlokclawek-Sarducci hyper-bridge gives the SEM/GA 3 hyper-bridge termini in the region, making the region much more attractive for commerce.

Under either of those circumstances(Mesa annexed or as a Protectorate), Visigoth knows there will be a powerful SEM presence on Mesa for quite some time. The original plan goes out the airlock. They cannot extend their presence into that region of the Verge. They cannot stem the flow of Manty trade and influence through Mesa into their corner of the Core Old League. They effectively lose between 15%-25% of their planned future holdings. Not just lose it, they lose it to the SEM who will consolidate those systems into their (and Beowulf's) sphere of influence.

The discovery of Lynx and the previous changes to their plan pretty much led to Visigoth's predicament.

I don't think Mesa's survival was in the original plan. The fact that Houdini wasn't an emergency plan, but part of the big picture, suggests to me that Mesa was always on the table as a pawn sacrifice. Mesa's strength was either slowly moved, or shifted with Houduni, to Darius. Jessyk, Manpower and the rest, were never truly under Malign control, they were the willing patsies for Detweiler's scheme's.

Mesa itself was never under control of the Malign, and slowly became barely under control of it's own government. Without outside influences, it was a generation or 2 at most away from civil war; the GA's agents just aimed and pulled the trigger of what was already there. Had Mesa been important to the Malign's plans it never would have.been allowed to get to that state.

It was always intended as the public camo for the true sinister plans behind the curtain. Now, as a final act, it is used as a trap to turn SL sentimit against the GA, further inflaming the situation, as calls for an EE strike against Manticore are heard.

Theemile wrote:
I don't think Mesa's survival was in the original plan. The fact that Houdini wasn't an emergency plan, but part of the big picture, suggests to me that Mesa was always on the table as a pawn sacrifice. Mesa's strength was either slowly moved, or shifted with Houduni, to Darius. Jessyk, Manpower and the rest, were never truly under Malign control, they were the willing patsies for Detweiler's scheme's.

Mesa itself was never under control of the Malign, and slowly became barely under control of it's own government. Without outside influences, it was a generation or 2 at most away from civil war; the GA's agents just aimed and pulled the trigger of what was already there. Had Mesa been important to the Malign's plans it never would have.been allowed to get to that state.

It was always intended as the public camo for the true sinister plans behind the curtain. Now, as a final act, it is used as a trap to turn SL sentimit against the GA, further inflaming the situation, as calls for an EE strike against Manticore are heard.

Agreed. Mesa was never meant to survive. However, Visigoth was meant to be the one that controlled both ends of the hyper-bridge. The SEM was never meant to be the dominant polity in the entire Eastern hemisphere of the galaxy. It was meant to be destroyed by Haven. Haven was meant to be the victor of that conflict. Haven was meant to have a very tarnished image in everything except in regards to genetic slavery.

They shot everything at the SEM to bring about that end. Instead, the SEM appears to be stronger than ever. The SEM has not just survived, but effectively brought the entire Haven Sector under its influence. Its extended that influence over 80% of all WJs in the galaxy. It has supplanted a MAlign cornerstone for the Renaissance Factor in Visigoth.

Sure, Mesa was going to be destroyed in the original plan. It would have been the MAlign's final "sacrifice" to prove the RF's bona fides as completely removed from the Detweiler dogma regardless of how some of their positions appear to actually support the Detweiler position. It was simply not in the cards that the SEM would do the destroying. It became obvious that the SEM would survive and do the destroying. That's why Houdini was launched in such a rush. Had the MAlign factored the SEM's survival, they would have begun Houdini earlier and taken more time to execute.

Everything dealing with the Talbot Quadrant was a response to the discovery of the Lynx terminus and an adaptation of the original plan. All that tap dancing has resulted in a big chunk of their long term plan getting seriously crippled.

Visagoth is an RF member. The Houdini plan was intended to remove (not butcher or expunge) all of the Alignment resources from Mesa before sinking the planet into chaos.
The final flourish of nuclear weapons that Albrect triggered would seem to have been part of the later plan for Mesa after getting the Alignment clear so as to very much muddy the waters about what had gone on.
We were told that Mesa with Manpower and many of the related companies was going to be used as a cover and misdirection, ultimately being sacrificed. It is possible that the last round of explosions was supposed to look like a selfie and genetic slave revolt which decapitated Mesa's leadership and took out much of it's ability to control anything and so leading to a bloodbath designed to be a civil war/revolution and essentialy killing off much of the population through the internal fighting and massive problems that the distruction would have had on the planets infrastructure.
Visagoth is still in control of it's end of the wormhole. It also has been a trade hub although it is not clear how it has rationalized it's connections with Mesa other than it can't control what the system on the other end of the wormhole has been doing. Even with Mesa in turmoil and SEM with a fleet holding the Mesa system, we don't know what the rest (the non-Mesa bound) traffic of that wormhole has been like. There probably has been a lot of traffic which only uses the wormhole and never gets close to the hyper-limit of Mesa. Same for the Visagoth end.
Ships come through to use the wormhole. They pay their transit fees, they deliver and receive cargo from the warehouses near the termini and just go on. How many would be searched by customs on either end if they are not going (nor publish intentions about going to Mesa) before the new crisis there? Visagoth is NOT caught up in what is going on at Mesa except as they will have to deal with shipping and now probably warships near the wormhole on their end. They can deal openly with SEM in reguard to what has happened and just move forward. It is not like Mike or the SEM is going to send ships into the Visagoth system hunting Mesa officials. They don't have to, any diplomatic staff or business people from Mesa on Visagoth will be looking for asylum if not for a fast ship away and Visagoth doesn't have to really do much beyond protest SEM's actions and not hand over any Mesa citizens that don't want to go back for fear of being entangled in Manpower and the whole genetic slavery issue.

One question I want answered, which I havn't seen yet here, is the ramifications for a non-SKM actor in absorbing ex-SL systems. For example, if Beowulf is approached by a couple of neighbor systems about forming a regional government or a NATO-like MDT.

For the neighbor systems the logic (if they appreciate how far SKM tech surpasses SLN tech) would make sense: They get via second hand SKM tech to defend themselves against other aggressors - as well as insulating themselves from any Manticore aggression. The benefits for Beowulf are also strong, as with regional allies/member systems they can create a sphere of prosperity and free trade without needing wormholes.

Erls wrote:One question I want answered, which I havn't seen yet here, is the ramifications for a non-SKM actor in absorbing ex-SL systems. For example, if Beowulf is approached by a couple of neighbor systems about forming a regional government or a NATO-like MDT.

That's essentially what the Harrington Doctrine wants to encourage. As long as the resulting multi-system doesn't self-identify as the League Successor and doesn't grow big and aggressive enough to threaten the SEM.

That's also what the Renaissance Factor plans for the immediate future.

There will be many variations on the theme -- Rembrandt Trade Union style groups (both the original intent and the OFS-wannabe it turned into); Manticore Alliance (First Wat version) where many small systems ally with a single powerful system for trade and mutual defense; Anderman Empire style where a benevolent bunch of mercenaries take control and star expanding slowly (and benevolently.)

The result for systems that seek out and/or are absorbed by such multi-system nations/organizations is going to be as varied as the groups they become part of. Some will get rich and others will get exploited.