Ramifications of absorbing fractured League systems?

lyonheart wrote:Hi cthia,

Once again, you're operating from false assumptions.

I hope that's polite enough.

First, the whole point of the Harrington plan is letting the locals, in much smaller groups [that are no threat to the SEM] do it on their own, ie there was never any intention of assuming the intended role of the FF and later the OFS.

Second, you keep forgetting its not the SEM and RMN alone anymore.

Remember, the old SKM had 5 planets with some 8 billion people [remember Lynx], plus the 16 star systems and 40 billion people of the TQ, along with the 32+ industrialized Silesian systems [64+ billion people], who for the most part are rather pleased to have the peace and prosperity NTM the honest rule of law the SEM can provide besides the investments that are now far more secure, so they'll be rather larger, particularly to replace some of the lost civilian industry as quickly as possible to generate income streams again.

Then there's the MA of some 20 members with at least 40 billion more people, Grayson leading the way as the most improved star system in 20 years, for around 130+ billion people in 73+ star systems.

That's before we get to the RoH that has ~150 star systems, including some 40 industrialized, and 200-250 billion people; plus Beowulf and its high tech and 9+ billion citizens, NTM the potential of other ex-SL members who consider Beowulf a moral compass they'll continue to follow, possibly even into the GA, with the 3 so far according to Kolokoltsov, adding another 15 billion for almost 230 star systems with over 400 billion people.

Then we get to the Maya sector which including Erewhon is another 28 industrialized star systems [which the future history book in ToF said were critical to victory] and 60-80 billion more people for some 255 systems and almost half a trillion [500 billion people], well over 100 times the SKM's population at the beginning of the first Haven war, with soon to be 75-80 heavily industrialized star systems, instead of just 3.

Besides the WHJ transits doubling in the past 20 years despite doubling the fees, there are all the other hyper bridges the SEM/GA now control [80+% in the SL by July] to add their share of fees to the SEM's income stream [even if they're less than what the SL took, its still a huge total amount besides another constant income stream]; then there's the MMM, whose profits equaled the transit fees when the first war started, NTM all the system wealth and out system investment's income, that enabled the SKM to largely pay for the first war without major taxes until the last few years, then be able to pay for most of the war NTM build the vast expansion of ship construction before OB.

The WHJ fees continue and RFC has warned us they will continue to grow; so I won't be too surprised if they quadruple again in the next 20 years.

Rebuilding the orbital stations can't and won't absorb all of that, indeed a lot will go into new war construction ASAP, the first new missile production lines should have already come on line before October, so there will still be quite a lot to invest in the verge and shells as needed, preferably in joint partnerships etc.

Then there's the Andermanni Empire who definitely are not going to be left out when it comes to carving up the SL, they will definitely not be the last to feed on that carcass!

So if any of the RF are anywhere near the AE, watch out!

The AE adds 39 industrialized star systems before including the lion's share of Silesia, ie at least 33+ industrialized star systems for a minimum of 72+ and another 150 billion people.

While that pales by comparison with the SL, let's remember that of the approximately 1800 SL members and ~600 protectorates, not all are or will be happy warriors for the mandarins when they find out about the war, which most evidently haven't.

The mandarins know the verge will be quickly lost to them as soon as the GA shows up, despite their desperate reliance on the protectorate fees etc; while the shells are none too happy either, the core world preferences if not outright subsidizing by the shells is a ready made recruiter for the GA, besides the wonderful opportunity to nationalize all the transtellars' property in their systems as past due taxes etc.

If the 'old league' was within 98 LY of Sol, there might be only 295 core world's [before Beowulf and friends secede, of course ] the mandarins may be able to rely on, although around 20% of the core [and nearly half of the total SL] gets its news from Beowulf/SEM at least ten days before Sol's version reaches them, so it might be closer to only 236 star systems.

Granted, though they're far wealthier and much more populous than the GA, the odds are far less than being outnumbered by "thousands of world's", and it's likely most have only LAC's to defend themselves, and given this war could be over in monthes, ie long before they could build anything especially modern warships, they're toast.

Given the EE violation that is going to mobilize Beowulf, just as the Yawata Strike did for the SEM, the GA is far more motivated than the satisfied core systems, who don't have the time to mobilize.

Post war patrolling may be simpler than you may think, remember Kumalo only had some 2-3 dozen warships before Monica, or about 2 per system of those at Spindle, so the GA may already be large enough, although I expect it could soon build enough to dwarf the present SLN.

Definitely interesting times,

L

PeterZ wrote:This suggests to me that 100 LY is about as far as any star nation can spread from its capital without losing its ability to provide good central governance. That and the ability to actually project force to defend its systems. Keeping that in mind, Joshua and Lynx provide the GA considerable reach into the Shell and Protectorates.

Joshua effectively puts about 15% of the League within that 100 LY range. Assuming even distribution and your numbers for the absolute size of the SL, that's potentially another 360 systems within defensible range of the GA. 270 Core and Shell worlds and 90 Protectorates totaling approximately 850 billion people. Not all of them would want to join the GA, but let's suppose 130 Core and Shell worlds (mostly Shell) do want to join and all of the Protectorates. That's 220 additional worlds, many of them industrialized for with 500 billion additional people.

The GA then possibly could effectively manage an Alliance of 475 systems and 1 trillion people all with that theoretical maximum 100 LY from Manticore. That assembly of systems may become substantially larger than the old Core League. The actual volume of space is vastly larger than the Core League, but the hyper transit time isn't. With the Streak drive and the hyper bridges, communications can keep such a collection of allied systems totaling approximately 20% of the League and Protectorates together.

Jonathan_S wrote:If I was Manticore I wouldn't want to accept any long term acquisitions through Joshua. It's fine for trade routes, but too fragile a connection to want to own any systems out that way. Manticore to Hennesy, 25 LY to Terra Haute, to Erewhon, to Jushua.

Manticore now does have undivided sovereignty over the terminus at Hennesy [HoS] (King Roger and renegotiated that they give up their original shared sovereignty that Queen Elizabeth had gifted them in exchange for a higher percentage of the transite fees and "a secret clause which amounted to a mutual defense treaty").
But the rest of the route is more problematical.
Manticore has no soverignty over the Phoenix Cluster, and CoS mentions that during the war the Phoenix Cluster had closed their Terra Haute terminus to Erewhon to military traffic.
I can't actually find a reference that says Erewhon signed on to the Grand Alliance with Haven and Manticore; so I guess it might be possible they just have the mutual defense treaty with Haven alone. Still given the still fragile state of affairs between Manticore and Erewhon I wouldn't want to rely on having to have access to their Junction to reach parts of the Star Empire.
And then I'm not sure who has sovereignty of the Joshua terminus itself.

If Erewhon is a GA member then plausibly the GA could offer some medium term security guarantees to systems near Joshua; but I wouldn't want anything longer term than that (other than trade deals)


Even in general a polity tied together by a diffuse web or wormholes is potentially more vulnerable militarily than one a 100 LY in diameter even if the through transit distance (excluding wormholes) is shorter. You always have to plan for how to recover if someone should manage to seize the terminus linking your capital system's space with a remote lobe of the empire. You either need sufficient forces stationed in each lobe to retake the connecting terminus, without help from your other fleets, from any plausible enemy (thus reopening the link to the rest of the empire) or you need to be willing and able to send a long range relief force several hundred lightyears through hyper to recover your wormhole (and then fall back either into the isolated lobe or through those hundreds of lightyears to the main areas if that attack fails and they need repair.

Silesia isn't too bad because there are 2 separate fairly direct wormhole approaches you could take (Basilisk or Gregor), it's not that far through hyper (looks to be about 150 LY to the near edge), and Manticore is between it and most current potential threats.
Lynx is worse that's a long jump (600 LY) without any other known accessible descent alternate wormhole paths (Though you might get permission to jump to Matapan space which would appear to cut the distance roughly in half). And we already saw one plan to attempt to seize the terminus and block it off from Manticore.

Joshua would be much worse than even that.



Now, sure, in the short term the Grand Alliance has enough of a military edge that being able to cut off a terminus that they really fortified isn't likely. But if you're thinking long term, as you should when considering adding systems to your permanent empire, you have to think of the military implications after the tech advantage evens up.

Jonathan_S wrote:

PeterZ wrote:This suggests to me that 100 LY is about as far as any star nation can spread from its capital without losing its ability to provide good central governance. That and the ability to actually project force to defend its systems. Keeping that in mind, Joshua and Lynx provide the GA considerable reach into the Shell and Protectorates.

Joshua effectively puts about 15% of the League within that 100 LY range. Assuming even distribution and your numbers for the absolute size of the SL, that's potentially another 360 systems within defensible range of the GA. 270 Core and Shell worlds and 90 Protectorates totaling approximately 850 billion people. Not all of them would want to join the GA, but let's suppose 130 Core and Shell worlds (mostly Shell) do want to join and all of the Protectorates. That's 220 additional worlds, many of them industrialized for with 500 billion additional people.

The GA then possibly could effectively manage an Alliance of 475 systems and 1 trillion people all with that theoretical maximum 100 LY from Manticore. That assembly of systems may become substantially larger than the old Core League. The actual volume of space is vastly larger than the Core League, but the hyper transit time isn't. With the Streak drive and the hyper bridges, communications can keep such a collection of allied systems totaling approximately 20% of the League and Protectorates together.

If I was Manticore I wouldn't want to accept any long term acquisitions through Joshua. It's fine for trade routes, but too fragile a connection to want to own any systems out that way. Manticore to Hennesy, 25 LY to Terra Haute, to Erewhon, to Jushua.

Manticore now does have undivided sovereignty over the terminus at Hennesy [HoS] (King Roger and renegotiated that they give up their original shared sovereignty that Queen Elizabeth had gifted them in exchange for a higher percentage of the transite fees and "a secret clause which amounted to a mutual defense treaty").
But the rest of the route is more problematical.
Manticore has no soverignty over the Phoenix Cluster, and CoS mentions that during the war the Phoenix Cluster had closed their Terra Haute terminus to Erewhon to military traffic.
I can't actually find a reference that says Erewhon signed on to the Grand Alliance with Haven and Manticore; so I guess it might be possible they just have the mutual defense treaty with Haven alone. Still given the still fragile state of affairs between Manticore and Erewhon I wouldn't want to rely on having to have access to their Junction to reach parts of the Star Empire.
And then I'm not sure who has sovereignty of the Joshua terminus itself.

If Erewhon is a GA member then plausibly the GA could offer some medium term security guarantees to systems near Joshua; but I wouldn't want anything longer term than that (other than trade deals)


Even in general a polity tied together by a diffuse web or wormholes is potentially more vulnerable militarily than one a 100 LY in diameter even if the through transit distance (excluding wormholes) is shorter. You always have to plan for how to recover if someone should manage to seize the terminus linking your capital system's space with a remote lobe of the empire. You either need sufficient forces stationed in each lobe to retake the connecting terminus, without help from your other fleets, from any plausible enemy (thus reopening the link to the rest of the empire) or you need to be willing and able to send a long range relief force several hundred lightyears through hyper to recover your wormhole (and then fall back either into the isolated lobe or through those hundreds of lightyears to the main areas if that attack fails and they need repair.

Silesia isn't too bad because there are 2 separate fairly direct wormhole approaches you could take (Basilisk or Gregor), it's not that far through hyper (looks to be about 150 LY to the near edge), and Manticore is between it and most current potential threats.
Lynx is worse that's a long jump (600 LY) without any other known accessible descent alternate wormhole paths (Though you might get permission to jump to Matapan space which would appear to cut the distance roughly in half). And we already saw one plan to attempt to seize the terminus and block it off from Manticore.

Joshua would be much worse than even that.



Now, sure, in the short term the Grand Alliance has enough of a military edge that being able to cut off a terminus that they really fortified isn't likely. But if you're thinking long term, as you should when considering adding systems to your permanent empire, you have to think of the military implications after the tech advantage evens up.

PeterZ wrote:I was thinking Joshua was part of the GA rather than as incorporating that into the SEM. The separation isn't as bad as it may look. Joshua is only ~175 LY from Beowulf.

What we don't know is where the rest of the WHJs are. We know that Wloclawka has one. That's in the neighborhood just south of Lynx. Where does this connect? We'll know soon enough, I guess. Just where those WHJs and termini are will dictate most of the conflict in the next story arc.

PeterZ wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi cthia,

Once again, you're operating from false assumptions.

I hope that's polite enough.

First, the whole point of the Harrington plan is letting the locals, in much smaller groups [that are no threat to the SEM] do it on their own, ie there was never any intention of assuming the intended role of the FF and later the OFS.

Second, you keep forgetting its not the SEM and RMN alone anymore.

Remember, the old SKM had 5 planets with some 8 billion people [remember Lynx], plus the 16 star systems and 40 billion people of the TQ, along with the 32+ industrialized Silesian systems [64+ billion people], who for the most part are rather pleased to have the peace and prosperity NTM the honest rule of law the SEM can provide besides the investments that are now far more secure, so they'll be rather larger, particularly to replace some of the lost civilian industry as quickly as possible to generate income streams again.

Then there's the MA of some 20 members with at least 40 billion more people, Grayson leading the way as the most improved star system in 20 years, for around 130+ billion people in 73+ star systems.

That's before we get to the RoH that has ~150 star systems, including some 40 industrialized, and 200-250 billion people; plus Beowulf and its high tech and 9+ billion citizens, NTM the potential of other ex-SL members who consider Beowulf a moral compass they'll continue to follow, possibly even into the GA, with the 3 so far according to Kolokoltsov, adding another 15 billion for almost 230 star systems with over 400 billion people.

Then we get to the Maya sector which including Erewhon is another 28 industrialized star systems [which the future history book in ToF said were critical to victory] and 60-80 billion more people for some 255 systems and almost half a trillion [500 billion people], well over 100 times the SKM's population at the beginning of the first Haven war, with soon to be 75-80 heavily industrialized star systems, instead of just 3.

Besides the WHJ transits doubling in the past 20 years despite doubling the fees, there are all the other hyper bridges the SEM/GA now control [80+% in the SL by July] to add their share of fees to the SEM's income stream [even if they're less than what the SL took, its still a huge total amount besides another constant income stream]; then there's the MMM, whose profits equaled the transit fees when the first war started, NTM all the system wealth and out system investment's income, that enabled the SKM to largely pay for the first war without major taxes until the last few years, then be able to pay for most of the war NTM build the vast expansion of ship construction before OB.

The WHJ fees continue and RFC has warned us they will continue to grow; so I won't be too surprised if they quadruple again in the next 20 years.

Rebuilding the orbital stations can't and won't absorb all of that, indeed a lot will go into new war construction ASAP, the first new missile production lines should have already come on line before October, so there will still be quite a lot to invest in the verge and shells as needed, preferably in joint partnerships etc.

Then there's the Andermanni Empire who definitely are not going to be left out when it comes to carving up the SL, they will definitely not be the last to feed on that carcass!

So if any of the RF are anywhere near the AE, watch out!

The AE adds 39 industrialized star systems before including the lion's share of Silesia, ie at least 33+ industrialized star systems for a minimum of 72+ and another 150 billion people.

While that pales by comparison with the SL, let's remember that of the approximately 1800 SL members and ~600 protectorates, not all are or will be happy warriors for the mandarins when they find out about the war, which most evidently haven't.

The mandarins know the verge will be quickly lost to them as soon as the GA shows up, despite their desperate reliance on the protectorate fees etc; while the shells are none too happy either, the core world preferences if not outright subsidizing by the shells is a ready made recruiter for the GA, besides the wonderful opportunity to nationalize all the transtellars' property in their systems as past due taxes etc.

If the 'old league' was within 98 LY of Sol, there might be only 295 core world's [before Beowulf and friends secede, of course ] the mandarins may be able to rely on, although around 20% of the core [and nearly half of the total SL] gets its news from Beowulf/SEM at least ten days before Sol's version reaches them, so it might be closer to only 236 star systems.

Granted, though they're far wealthier and much more populous than the GA, the odds are far less than being outnumbered by "thousands of world's", and it's likely most have only LAC's to defend themselves, and given this war could be over in monthes, ie long before they could build anything especially modern warships, they're toast.

Given the EE violation that is going to mobilize Beowulf, just as the Yawata Strike did for the SEM, the GA is far more motivated than the satisfied core systems, who don't have the time to mobilize.

Post war patrolling may be simpler than you may think, remember Kumalo only had some 2-3 dozen warships before Monica, or about 2 per system of those at Spindle, so the GA may already be large enough, although I expect it could soon build enough to dwarf the present SLN.

Definitely interesting times,

L

Well, Lyonheart, let's extend your analysis a bit, shall we?

The Old Manticoran Alliance extended about 100 LY from Manticore. The Core League extends 100 LY from Sol. The RoH is a bit larger than that, but they got into the conquistador game in a big way for quite some time. The Andermani Empire extends about 100 LY to its farthest possessions in Silesia. The Talbot Quadrant is s bit farther out than 100 LY from Spindle. Spindle is about 100 LY from Lynx.

This suggests to me that 100 LY is about as far as any star nation can spread from its capital without losing its ability to provide good central governance. That and the ability to actually project force to defend its systems. Keeping that in mind, Joshua and Lynx provide the GA considerable reach into the Shell and Protectorates.

Joshua effectively puts about 15% of the League within that 100 LY range. Assuming even distribution and your numbers for the absolute size of the SL, that's potentially another 360 systems within defensible range of the GA. 270 Core and Shell worlds and 90 Protectorates totaling approximately 850 billion people. Not all of them would want to join the GA, but let's suppose 130 Core and Shell worlds (mostly Shell) do want to join and all of the Protectorates. That's 220 additional worlds, many of them industrialized for with 500 billion additional people.

The GA then possibly could effectively manage an Alliance of 475 systems and 1 trillion people all with that theoretical maximum 100 LY from Manticore. That assembly of systems may become substantially larger than the old Core League. The actual volume of space is vastly larger than the Core League, but the hyper transit time isn't. With the Streak drive and the hyper bridges, communications can keep such a collection of allied systems totaling approximately 20% of the League and Protectorates together.

The MAlign would be hard pressed to gather an equal number AND hold them together. At best the MAlign can collect 2-3 slightly smaller collections of systems centered around 4-5 RF members each. The number of systems depends on the number of hyper bridges they control. One thing we know for sure is that the capture of Mesa by Adm. Gold Peak will limit their ability to collect the systems in that sector of the Verge. I do suspect that the remainder of the hyper bridges the SEM doesn't control are controlled in large part by the RF.

So the dynamic for political stress in the next story arc will be commerce protection. The MAlign will send their spider drive ships to raid Allied commerce. The Alliance won't know where they are, but will suspect their rivals and allies. Approaching the next arc this way allows RFC to return to small/single ship operations for the early part of the next story. Raoul and Katherine join Abby and Helen policing the space ways within the Grand Alliance.

Jonathan_S wrote:

PeterZ wrote:This suggests to me that 100 LY is about as far as any star nation can spread from its capital without losing its ability to provide good central governance. That and the ability to actually project force to defend its systems. Keeping that in mind, Joshua and Lynx provide the GA considerable reach into the Shell and Protectorates.

Joshua effectively puts about 15% of the League within that 100 LY range. Assuming even distribution and your numbers for the absolute size of the SL, that's potentially another 360 systems within defensible range of the GA. 270 Core and Shell worlds and 90 Protectorates totaling approximately 850 billion people. Not all of them would want to join the GA, but let's suppose 130 Core and Shell worlds (mostly Shell) do want to join and all of the Protectorates. That's 220 additional worlds, many of them industrialized for with 500 billion additional people.

The GA then possibly could effectively manage an Alliance of 475 systems and 1 trillion people all with that theoretical maximum 100 LY from Manticore. That assembly of systems may become substantially larger than the old Core League. The actual volume of space is vastly larger than the Core League, but the hyper transit time isn't. With the Streak drive and the hyper bridges, communications can keep such a collection of allied systems totaling approximately 20% of the League and Protectorates together.

If I was Manticore I wouldn't want to accept any long term acquisitions through Joshua. It's fine for trade routes, but too fragile a connection to want to own any systems out that way. Manticore to Hennesy, 25 LY to Terra Haute, to Erewhon, to Jushua.

Manticore now does have undivided sovereignty over the terminus at Hennesy [HoS] (King Roger and renegotiated that they give up their original shared sovereignty that Queen Elizabeth had gifted them in exchange for a higher percentage of the transite fees and "a secret clause which amounted to a mutual defense treaty").
But the rest of the route is more problematical.
Manticore has no soverignty over the Phoenix Cluster, and CoS mentions that during the war the Phoenix Cluster had closed their Terra Haute terminus to Erewhon to military traffic.
I can't actually find a reference that says Erewhon signed on to the Grand Alliance with Haven and Manticore; so I guess it might be possible they just have the mutual defense treaty with Haven alone. Still given the still fragile state of affairs between Manticore and Erewhon I wouldn't want to rely on having to have access to their Junction to reach parts of the Star Empire.
And then I'm not sure who has sovereignty of the Joshua terminus itself.

If Erewhon is a GA member then plausibly the GA could offer some medium term security guarantees to systems near Joshua; but I wouldn't want anything longer term than that (other than trade deals)


Even in general a polity tied together by a diffuse web or wormholes is potentially more vulnerable militarily than one a 100 LY in diameter even if the through transit distance (excluding wormholes) is shorter. You always have to plan for how to recover if someone should manage to seize the terminus linking your capital system's space with a remote lobe of the empire. You either need sufficient forces stationed in each lobe to retake the connecting terminus, without help from your other fleets, from any plausible enemy (thus reopening the link to the rest of the empire) or you need to be willing and able to send a long range relief force several hundred lightyears through hyper to recover your wormhole (and then fall back either into the isolated lobe or through those hundreds of lightyears to the main areas if that attack fails and they need repair.

Silesia isn't too bad because there are 2 separate fairly direct wormhole approaches you could take (Basilisk or Gregor), it's not that far through hyper (looks to be about 150 LY to the near edge), and Manticore is between it and most current potential threats.
Lynx is worse that's a long jump (600 LY) without any other known accessible descent alternate wormhole paths (Though you might get permission to jump to Matapan space which would appear to cut the distance roughly in half). And we already saw one plan to attempt to seize the terminus and block it off from Manticore.

Joshua would be much worse than even that.



Now, sure, in the short term the Grand Alliance has enough of a military edge that being able to cut off a terminus that they really fortified isn't likely. But if you're thinking long term, as you should when considering adding systems to your permanent empire, you have to think of the military implications after the tech advantage evens up.

PeterZ wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:If I was Manticore I wouldn't want to accept any long term acquisitions through Joshua. It's fine for trade routes, but too fragile a connection to want to own any systems out that way. Manticore to Hennesy, 25 LY to Terra Haute, to Erewhon, to Jushua.

Manticore now does have undivided sovereignty over the terminus at Hennesy [HoS] (King Roger and renegotiated that they give up their original shared sovereignty that Queen Elizabeth had gifted them in exchange for a higher percentage of the transite fees and "a secret clause which amounted to a mutual defense treaty").
But the rest of the route is more problematical.
Manticore has no soverignty over the Phoenix Cluster, and CoS mentions that during the war the Phoenix Cluster had closed their Terra Haute terminus to Erewhon to military traffic.
I can't actually find a reference that says Erewhon signed on to the Grand Alliance with Haven and Manticore; so I guess it might be possible they just have the mutual defense treaty with Haven alone. Still given the still fragile state of affairs between Manticore and Erewhon I wouldn't want to rely on having to have access to their Junction to reach parts of the Star Empire.
And then I'm not sure who has sovereignty of the Joshua terminus itself.

If Erewhon is a GA member then plausibly the GA could offer some medium term security guarantees to systems near Joshua; but I wouldn't want anything longer term than that (other than trade deals)


Even in general a polity tied together by a diffuse web or wormholes is potentially more vulnerable militarily than one a 100 LY in diameter even if the through transit distance (excluding wormholes) is shorter. You always have to plan for how to recover if someone should manage to seize the terminus linking your capital system's space with a remote lobe of the empire. You either need sufficient forces stationed in each lobe to retake the connecting terminus, without help from your other fleets, from any plausible enemy (thus reopening the link to the rest of the empire) or you need to be willing and able to send a long range relief force several hundred lightyears through hyper to recover your wormhole (and then fall back either into the isolated lobe or through those hundreds of lightyears to the main areas if that attack fails and they need repair.

Silesia isn't too bad because there are 2 separate fairly direct wormhole approaches you could take (Basilisk or Gregor), it's not that far through hyper (looks to be about 150 LY to the near edge), and Manticore is between it and most current potential threats.
Lynx is worse that's a long jump (600 LY) without any other known accessible descent alternate wormhole paths (Though you might get permission to jump to Matapan space which would appear to cut the distance roughly in half). And we already saw one plan to attempt to seize the terminus and block it off from Manticore.

Joshua would be much worse than even that.



Now, sure, in the short term the Grand Alliance has enough of a military edge that being able to cut off a terminus that they really fortified isn't likely. But if you're thinking long term, as you should when considering adding systems to your permanent empire, you have to think of the military implications after the tech advantage evens up.

I was thinking Joshua was part of the GA rather than as incorporating that into the SEM. The separation isn't as bad as it may look. Joshua is only ~175 LY from Beowulf.

What we don't know is where the rest of the WHJs are. We know that Wloclawka has one. That's in the neighborhood just south of Lynx. Where does this connect? We'll know soon enough, I guess. Just where those WHJs and termini are will dictate most of the conflict in the next story arc.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:quote="PeterZ"
This suggests to me that 100 LY is about as far as any star nation can spread from its capital without losing its ability to provide good central governance. That and the ability to actually project force to defend its systems. Keeping that in mind, Joshua and Lynx provide the GA considerable reach into the Shell and Protectorates.

Joshua effectively puts about 15% of the League within that 100 LY range. Assuming even distribution and your numbers for the absolute size of the SL, that's potentially another 360 systems within defensible range of the GA. 270 Core and Shell worlds and 90 Protectorates totaling approximately 850 billion people. Not all of them would want to join the GA, but let's suppose 130 Core and Shell worlds (mostly Shell) do want to join and all of the Protectorates. That's 220 additional worlds, many of them industrialized for with 500 billion additional people.

The GA then possibly could effectively manage an Alliance of 475 systems and 1 trillion people all with that theoretical maximum 100 LY from Manticore. That assembly of systems may become substantially larger than the old Core League. The actual volume of space is vastly larger than the Core League, but the hyper transit time isn't. With the Streak drive and the hyper bridges, communications can keep such a collection of allied systems totaling approximately 20% of the League and Protectorates together.
quote
If I was Manticore I wouldn't want to accept any long term acquisitions through Joshua. It's fine for trade routes, but too fragile a connection to want to own any systems out that way. Manticore to Hennesy, 25 LY to Terra Haute, to Erewhon, to Jushua.

Manticore now does have undivided sovereignty over the terminus at Hennesy [HoS] (King Roger and renegotiated that they give up their original shared sovereignty that Queen Elizabeth had gifted them in exchange for a higher percentage of the transite fees and "a secret clause which amounted to a mutual defense treaty").
But the rest of the route is more problematical.
Manticore has no soverignty over the Phoenix Cluster, and CoS mentions that during the war the Phoenix Cluster had closed their Terra Haute terminus to Erewhon to military traffic.
I can't actually find a reference that says Erewhon signed on to the Grand Alliance with Haven and Manticore; so I guess it might be possible they just have the mutual defense treaty with Haven alone. Still given the still fragile state of affairs between Manticore and Erewhon I wouldn't want to rely on having to have access to their Junction to reach parts of the Star Empire.
And then I'm not sure who has sovereignty of the Joshua terminus itself.

If Erewhon is a GA member then plausibly the GA could offer some medium term security guarantees to systems near Joshua; but I wouldn't want anything longer term than that (other than trade deals)


Even in general a polity tied together by a diffuse web or wormholes is potentially more vulnerable militarily than one a 100 LY in diameter even if the through transit distance (excluding wormholes) is shorter. You always have to plan for how to recover if someone should manage to seize the terminus linking your capital system's space with a remote lobe of the empire. You either need sufficient forces stationed in each lobe to retake the connecting terminus, without help from your other fleets, from any plausible enemy (thus reopening the link to the rest of the empire) or you need to be willing and able to send a long range relief force several hundred lightyears through hyper to recover your wormhole (and then fall back either into the isolated lobe or through those hundreds of lightyears to the main areas if that attack fails and they need repair.

Silesia isn't too bad because there are 2 separate fairly direct wormhole approaches you could take (Basilisk or Gregor), it's not that far through hyper (looks to be about 150 LY to the near edge), and Manticore is between it and most current potential threats.
Lynx is worse that's a long jump (600 LY) without any other known accessible descent alternate wormhole paths (Though you might get permission to jump to Matapan space which would appear to cut the distance roughly in half). And we already saw one plan to attempt to seize the terminus and block it off from Manticore.

Joshua would be much worse than even that.



Now, sure, in the short term the Grand Alliance has enough of a military edge that being able to cut off a terminus that they really fortified isn't likely. But if you're thinking long term, as you should when considering adding systems to your permanent empire, you have to think of the military implications after the tech advantage evens up.

Pardon my boldness.

Which is why I suggested in the thread's initial post that the SEM was going to need to consider basing rights somewhere(s).

lyonheart, PeterZ, Jonathan_S,

You guys are laying down extraordinary posts! Me heart has been warmed, as if sipping on hot cocoa with roasted marshmallows while sitting around a crackling camp fire. "Hmmm, oh the bliss."

It is obvious that I have much to catch up on. Reading your posts are helping quite a bit with the jet lag.

First, an apology for... lagging. Apology.

Secondly, an explanation of why I thought that in the long run it would be highly recommended, strategically, for the SEM to consider courting specific systems to become part of the SEM, as they did with Grayson. (And one has been hit on the head by Jonathan.) Foresight.

If the SEM retains its current posture and attitude towards annexation—not a forced annexation, but friendly. Then whatever entity sets up housekeeping in the "completely new and open for business fractured League Worlds," be it the RF or something new, may grow to exceed the size of the original League. If they are friendly, great. If not—or if they are friendly and then later friction occurs—then strategically, the SEM will be hard-pressed to ward off another 800# gorilla who this time around isn't as inept, constitutionally hamstrung and technologically lacking as the League.

In which case, if it had permanent bases established throughout this region, would mitigate much of the strategic and tactical imbalances caused by the great distances. IOW, I was suggesting absorbing systems in foresight and anticipation of any future enemies. I think it is a strategic mistake for the SEM to rest on its laurels.

Sure, the SEM can continue the route of securing trade agreements and defense pacts, but I keep considering what happened with Erewon, who was so easily lost to Haven because they were free agents.

I am merely considering the future, and what complacence by the SEM could mean in the long run. Sure, we as readers know about the coming RF, and the SEM doesn't. Yet, that does not forgive any strategic military ignorance of shortsightedness by the SEM to fail to head off any strategic handicaps of trying to fight whatever unseen Phoenix that may rise from the ashes of a decomposing League carcass. While the getting is good.

Please do forgive any further handicaps fueled by my continued ignorance.

.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Well, we at least know Wloclawek's hyper bridge is not connected to Father Guido Sarduchi, wherever he'll be in 2022 PD.

L