Ramifications of absorbing fractured League systems?

Of course, the SEM will meet its domestic investment needs first. That goes without saying. Once domestic needs are met, the SEM must invest abroad. This isn't an option, it's an economic imperative. If they don't, their economy will overheat and then fuel spiraling inflation. Recall that WHJ fees is capital coming from outside their economy, an export of services or direct foreign investment. Those funds come in as the WHJ is used and must be invested where it does not overstimulate demand. That pretty much requires investing it abroad.

Also some industries MUST invest abroad regardless of domestic needs. Insurance companies with exposure interstellar trade have to invest in system's economies and industries as independent from interstellar trade as possible. They simply cannot have the investment securing their liabilities fall in value as the cost for claims increase. That means mature economies and industries focused on domestic production and services. Hospitals, utilities, private clinics, resource extraction systems, orbital infrastructure and all sorts of similar domestic needs any number of mature systems will need. The return on those investments will be low, because they compete with the available capital from those mature systems. That's simply far less important that investing in non-correlated assets to protect their potential liabilities, like what is happening now.

Any Core League system that wants to secede becomes a much more attractive place for future investments. Future investments that will be made somewhere outside the SEM. Those Verge or protectorate system interested in joining the GA much like those allies in the old MA fighting the PRH will also be investment destinations. This is true regardless of domestic SEM investment needs for those companies with international trade exposure. Such companies have to secure their financial reserves in assets not correlated to their income streams.

This financial imperative is what makes the SEM such a valuable ally. SEM allies get investments from the SEM and military support in part to protect those investments. Those alliances have deep incentives flowing both ways to honor commitments on both sides of any alliance.

cthia wrote:Not assimilate. Assimilate is such an unfriendly Borg initiative that is too aggressive for what this thread is about. I'm referring to systems that rather have a bigger partner.

Do you think all systems would want to choose the unproven, unheard of RF over the SEM?

No, but they might choose Maya or Meyers, former League associates, or they might choose the Phoenix Cluster or Judean League, or some local mutual defense league over an Empire the width of known space away. It doesn't matter what term you use, there are going to be systems that simply don't want anything to do with the SEM and will choose the "known" associates of neighboring systems for their mutual defense needs.

I think systems that are close enough to practically join the SEM and are inclined to go for more than a bilateral mutual defense and trade treaty are going to be relatively scarce. For the majority, there is going to be a "Big Brother" closer to home that isn't going to take six months to a year to respond to cries for help. It might not be as technically advanced as the GA or Andermani, but "when seconds count, the Police are only minutes away." (or when you only have weeks or days, help that is months away is no help at all.)

There are going to be a lot of little NATOs and Warsaw Pacts around. The SEM/GA is neither able nor inclined to join all of them.

cthia wrote:Why didn't the League see fit to ratify its Constitution to protect from a rebellious secessionist attitude? Was it the sole reason of arrogance, stupidity or both or was it something simpler? Like realizing that there was a reason these systems joined the League in the first place. The League knows that these very same reasons to need the League, or someone, will always exist.

I think something much simpler - they wrote the Constitution to address the needs and concerns of that time; not those of the present.


The League constitution was the result of the negations of the very first handful of systems that agreed to try something unprecedented, and only just made even remotely possible by recent breakthroughs creating much safer hyper travel, a legislative body of actual interstellar scope. And they'd be mostly worried about how it applied to them; not how it might apply to a future system a thousand years from then (the League being form in the 900s PD and the current Honorverse being set in the 1900s PD).

These systems had no external threat at the time, and they'd been settled (mostly by slow boat), and totally self-sufficiently independent for centuries before it became practical to even consider interstellar coordination.
They formed the League largely to help coordinate relief efforts on the self-ravaged Earth and partly to manage their extremely nascent interstellar trade.


The only possible rebellious secessionist when their Constitution was framed are the very same systems that are skittishly considering whether they should even try this new thing.

Remember they were so concerned, and so adamant about retaining their internal sovereignty that they'd rather let the Legislature be utterly ineffective - in additional to giving it virtually no funding (it gets feed from interstellar trade at a time when that's only just barely become possible so the volume and value they could charge fees against was extremely low), and retaining almost complete control of laws and activities withing their star systems, they also gave every single member who joined a veto against any law the new Legislature might pass.

So given those prevailing conditions it seems to make total sense for an easy exit option; despite how it might be theoretically abused against a vastly wealthier and larger League 1,000 years later.

In creating a thread, its amateur author has to yield to the same realities of a professional author. What to name it. I almost went with "Negative Implications of the Harrington Plan."

I'm betting that the Harrington plan will ultimate end up stirring a nest of hornets into becoming deadlier. One that will coalesce into something more deadly, with a Constitution that isn't inert and lacking a backbone, that will one day have its eye set upon the Manticore and its lucrative junctions. When you kill a german cockroach, you have to make sure you crush its reproductive system or it will deliver babies even when its dead. (I know. I demonstrated it to a class as a science project in the ninth grade. I got an "Ewww!" from the class. But an A from the teacher. Easiest A I ever received and the entire class was enthralled in the end when I gassed the makeshift fish tank, then vented the gas after the roaches died.)

Detweiler saw it all in his delusions of grandeur.

Manticore might want to keep an eye on the roaches. I don't think the Harrington Plan is at all concerned about the long run. It only wants to kill the more immediate gorilla and hope that its babies are raised differently.

cthia wrote:In creating a thread, its amateur author has to yield to the same realities of a professional author. What to name it. I almost went with "Negative Implications of the Harrington Plan."

I'm betting that the Harrington plan will ultimate end up stirring a nest of hornets into becoming deadlier. One that will coalesce into something more deadly, with a Constitution that isn't inert and lacking a backbone, that will one day have its eye set upon the Manticore and its lucrative junctions. [snip]

Detweiler saw it all in his delusions of grandeur.

Manticore might want to keep an eye on the roaches. I don't think the Harrington Plan is at all concerned about the long run. It only wants to kill the more immediate gorilla and hope that its babies are raised differently.

The plan might be flawed or based on incorrect assumptions but it was designed to go for the long run safety of Manticore. If Manticore was going for just killing the immediate threat with no concern at all for the long term they'd send their unstoppable squadrons of SD(P)s to repeat the Buttercup attacks endlessly in system after system of the League. Destroy and military unit or fort, any shipyard, heck any orbital resource extraction - and then demand surrender and move on the the next system. That would generate a hell of a Hornets nest down the road.

Still, the Harrington plan could fail; despite their efforts a large portion of the League might be distilled into an implacable enemy. But they are trying to avoid that.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:In creating a thread, its amateur author has to yield to the same realities of a professional author. What to name it. I almost went with "Negative Implications of the Harrington Plan."

I'm betting that the Harrington plan will ultimate end up stirring a nest of hornets into becoming deadlier. One that will coalesce into something more deadly, with a Constitution that isn't inert and lacking a backbone, that will one day have its eye set upon the Manticore and its lucrative junctions. [snip]

Detweiler saw it all in his delusions of grandeur.

Manticore might want to keep an eye on the roaches. I don't think the Harrington Plan is at all concerned about the long run. It only wants to kill the more immediate gorilla and hope that its babies are raised differently.

The plan might be flawed or based on incorrect assumptions but it was designed to go for the long run safety of Manticore. If Manticore was going for just killing the immediate threat with no concern at all for the long term they'd send their unstoppable squadrons of SD(P)s to repeat the Buttercup attacks endlessly in system after system of the League. Destroy and military unit or fort, any shipyard, heck any orbital resource extraction - and then demand surrender and move on the the next system. That would generate a hell of a Hornets nest down the road.

Still, the Harrington plan could fail; despite their efforts a large portion of the League might be distilled into an implacable enemy. But they are trying to avoid that.

I needed that reminder.

Certainly flawed. As the MAlign Plan plans for a much longer run.

.

The Hartington plan is an extension of Manticore's doctrine of alliance building in foreign policy. It's the active part of the overall strategy. The core doctrine is to use the need to invest abroad to build strong allies. As their control of the WH network expands through operation Lacoon I&II, the SEM's practical reach extends pretty far. Using that extended reach, they will build up their allies in more parts of the galaxy.

One wonders if there are WHJs that were owned by the SL federal government? If so, they could annex those junctions as part of any reparations. Even if the SEM decides to share the proceeds with local systems the SL confiscated the Junction from, that means more capital flowing into the SEM. One further wonders if Yldun will lose its WHJ for Techmodyne's actions? Not sure if Technodyne is effectively Yldun or if the system government is independent of the transstellar.

In any case, the SEM will continue to invest in their allies sing the WHJ transit fees. This will result in a growing political alliance of independent star nations which will grow more economically intertwined. The Harrington plan will serve to keep potentially hostile alliances as small as possible and maintaining good relations with those alliances/polities that have grown large.

Success of the plan rests on not just keeping enemies weak and small, but their own alliance strong and vibrant. Strong and vibrant enough to to survive a Renaissance Factor which succeeded in building its own vibrant alliance/multi stellar polity.

Of course there are negative downsides to the Harrington Plan.

Even if the GA does not activly go after the warmaking capabilites of the SL Member systems (naval shipyards, defence industries etc) it is still going to deal major economic damage to all of those systems as the entire ecomomic and trade system of the SL and anybody they deal with on a regular basis has been disrupted. That is going to make various people very very angry. Mostly the people who have benifited from the system but also anybody that gets seriously hurt because of disruption of trade and all it's ripple effects. Of course, many of those same people would have just loved for Fillerta to have crushed the SEM in his attack and them demanded a share of the loot including pieces of the income &/or the operations of the Manticore Junction and termini.

There will be a lot more people killed going forward and that is also going to linger as reasons for hatred and plotting for revenge. It also doesn't specifically address what to do about the Alignment as we, the readers know about it. That means the Rennaissance Faction and how to deal with systems or alliances of systems that are masking their true intent as well as this portion of the Alignment seems to be doing.

I agree that the Harrington Plan really does seem an expanded version of earlier Manticorian Foreign Policy in that it concentrates on forging mutually benificial alliances -mostly in trade- with anybody willing to meet the expectations of Manticore. Not grovel in submission, but play within the same rulebook.

Manticore and Haven understand they can't expect to dominate by force. They can't afford to even attempt that and just become versions of what we recognize as The Empire or 1st Order from the StarWars universe. That is guaranteed to blow up in their faces and is recognized that way. So try to work with smaller pieces and -eventually- bring the rest of pieces of the SL, and anybody else out there, into working trade relationsips.

There is also going to be a lot of people who are just going to continue to be like so many of the Transtellars and various totalitaring goverments we have seen as well as just nasty individuals. It is going to happen, they will have to deal with it on a case by case basis.

As long as Manticore and it's partners can maintain some version of a balanced policy that does not include taking over places, the Harrington Plan should work---with the usual problems of always having to deal with problems and change.

Brigade XO wrote:Of course there are negative downsides to the Harrington Plan.

Even if the GA does not activly go after the warmaking capabilites of the SL Member systems (naval shipyards, defence industries etc) it is still going to deal major economic damage to all of those systems as the entire ecomomic and trade system of the SL and anybody they deal with on a regular basis has been disrupted. That is going to make various people very very angry. Mostly the people who have benifited from the system but also anybody that gets seriously hurt because of disruption of trade and all it's ripple effects. Of course, many of those same people would have just loved for Fillerta to have crushed the SEM in his attack and them demanded a share of the loot including pieces of the income &/or the operations of the Manticore Junction and termini.

There will be a lot more people killed going forward and that is also going to linger as reasons for hatred and plotting for revenge. It also doesn't specifically address what to do about the Alignment as we, the readers know about it. That means the Rennaissance Faction and how to deal with systems or alliances of systems that are masking their true intent as well as this portion of the Alignment seems to be doing.

I agree that the Harrington Plan really does seem an expanded version of earlier Manticorian Foreign Policy in that it concentrates on forging mutually benificial alliances -mostly in trade- with anybody willing to meet the expectations of Manticore. Not grovel in submission, but play within the same rulebook.

Manticore and Haven understand they can't expect to dominate by force. They can't afford to even attempt that and just become versions of what we recognize as The Empire or 1st Order from the StarWars universe. That is guaranteed to blow up in their faces and is recognized that way. So try to work with smaller pieces and -eventually- bring the rest of pieces of the SL, and anybody else out there, into working trade relationsips.

There is also going to be a lot of people who are just going to continue to be like so many of the Transtellars and various totalitaring goverments we have seen as well as just nasty individuals. It is going to happen, they will have to deal with it on a case by case basis.

As long as Manticore and it's partners can maintain some version of a balanced policy that does not include taking over places, the Harrington Plan should work---with the usual problems of always having to deal with problems and change.

If there are any planets that move away from the League, the top group would be those planets run by Mesa. Torch will almost certainly quickly pick up a group of planets inhabited mostly by Manpower slaves...just as Torch was.

With no navy to protect it, the supervisors would have no chance if there were a rebellion. And you can bet one of the first questions any of the new occupiers will ask will be the exact locations of those planets.

The League won't interfere because Mesa was not a member and the last thing the mandarins need is for the rest of the League to feel they're protecting slavery.

Hi cthia,

Once again, you're operating from false assumptions.

I hope that's polite enough.

First, the whole point of the Harrington plan is letting the locals, in much smaller groups [that are no threat to the SEM] do it on their own, ie there was never any intention of assuming the intended role of the FF and later the OFS.

Second, you keep forgetting its not the SEM and RMN alone anymore.

Remember, the old SKM had 5 planets with some 8 billion people [remember Lynx], plus the 16 star systems and 40 billion people of the TQ, along with the 32+ industrialized Silesian systems [64+ billion people], who for the most part are rather pleased to have the peace and prosperity NTM the honest rule of law the SEM can provide besides the investments that are now far more secure, so they'll be rather larger, particularly to replace some of the lost civilian industry as quickly as possible to generate income streams again.

Then there's the MA of some 20 members with at least 40 billion more people, Grayson leading the way as the most improved star system in 20 years, for around 130+ billion people in 73+ star systems.

That's before we get to the RoH that has ~150 star systems, including some 40 industrialized, and 200-250 billion people; plus Beowulf and its high tech and 9+ billion citizens, NTM the potential of other ex-SL members who consider Beowulf a moral compass they'll continue to follow, possibly even into the GA, with the 3 so far according to Kolokoltsov, adding another 15 billion for almost 230 star systems with over 400 billion people.

Then we get to the Maya sector which including Erewhon is another 28 industrialized star systems [which the future history book in ToF said were critical to victory] and 60-80 billion more people for some 255 systems and almost half a trillion [500 billion people], well over 100 times the SKM's population at the beginning of the first Haven war, with soon to be 75-80 heavily industrialized star systems, instead of just 3.

Besides the WHJ transits doubling in the past 20 years despite doubling the fees, there are all the other hyper bridges the SEM/GA now control [80+% in the SL by July] to add their share of fees to the SEM's income stream [even if they're less than what the SL took, its still a huge total amount besides another constant income stream]; then there's the MMM, whose profits equaled the transit fees when the first war started, NTM all the system wealth and out system investment's income, that enabled the SKM to largely pay for the first war without major taxes until the last few years, then be able to pay for most of the war NTM build the vast expansion of ship construction before OB.

The WHJ fees continue and RFC has warned us they will continue to grow; so I won't be too surprised if they quadruple again in the next 20 years.

Rebuilding the orbital stations can't and won't absorb all of that, indeed a lot will go into new war construction ASAP, the first new missile production lines should have already come on line before October, so there will still be quite a lot to invest in the verge and shells as needed, preferably in joint partnerships etc.

Then there's the Andermanni Empire who definitely are not going to be left out when it comes to carving up the SL, they will definitely not be the last to feed on that carcass!

So if any of the RF are anywhere near the AE, watch out!

The AE adds 39 industrialized star systems before including the lion's share of Silesia, ie at least 33+ industrialized star systems for a minimum of 72+ and another 150 billion people.

While that pales by comparison with the SL, let's remember that of the approximately 1800 SL members and ~600 protectorates, not all are or will be happy warriors for the mandarins when they find out about the war, which most evidently haven't.

The mandarins know the verge will be quickly lost to them as soon as the GA shows up, despite their desperate reliance on the protectorate fees etc; while the shells are none too happy either, the core world preferences if not outright subsidizing by the shells is a ready made recruiter for the GA, besides the wonderful opportunity to nationalize all the transtellars' property in their systems as past due taxes etc.

If the 'old league' was within 98 LY of Sol, there might be only 295 core world's [before Beowulf and friends secede, of course ] the mandarins may be able to rely on, although around 20% of the core [and nearly half of the total SL] gets its news from Beowulf/SEM at least ten days before Sol's version reaches them, so it might be closer to only 236 star systems.

Granted, though they're far wealthier and much more populous than the GA, the odds are far less than being outnumbered by "thousands of world's", and it's likely most have only LAC's to defend themselves, and given this war could be over in monthes, ie long before they could build anything especially modern warships, they're toast.

Given the EE violation that is going to mobilize Beowulf, just as the Yawata Strike did for the SEM, the GA is far more motivated than the satisfied core systems, who don't have the time to mobilize.

Post war patrolling may be simpler than you may think, remember Kumalo only had some 2-3 dozen warships before Monica, or about 2 per system of those at Spindle, so the GA may already be large enough, although I expect it could soon build enough to dwarf the present SLN.

Definitely interesting times,

L


[quote="cthia"]I'm aware that the Harrington Plan doesn't preach absorption. That is the reason for the (?)


I simply do not think that it is realistic for the SEM to assume, what should have been, the duties of OFS. Protection. It is impossible by the numbers. There are thousands of League worlds. If the 800# gorilla is to fall, then he has to shed enough pounds. That means a significant portion of its worlds. If that happens, there is no way that the SEM can police, even a thousand worlds. They would need a hell of a lot of ships. It is a huge responsibility that demands a huge investment of resources. I always thought it obvious that that is why the League has so many ships, because it has so many planets to oversee. Yet the League is getting something [i]for[/i] its efforts. All the SEM is supposed to benefit from its protection is trade? They'll get that anyways. What system in its right mind wouldn't want to trade with the SEM? If only for the protection it affords when their freighters are in system. Because if you mess with SEM shipping you mess with the SEM.

It is why firefighters and policemen are given free admittance to movie theaters and many other venues, it is for the free protection it affords while they are there. A symbiotic relationship. As a consequence -- because the SEM cannot be everywhere at once, systems are going to seek admittance for a more formal relationship, incurring a more formal protection plan. Or why would they leave the protection of the League and go it alone? There are systems that play by the rules. Yet there are other systems that do not, and will not, play fairly. And these systems also will not hesitate to take advantage of neighboring systems who may be exploitable. OFS didn't just protect systems from piracy and factions, it protected the little kids from each other, back biting, fighting, pulling hair, messing with each others resources -- all the natural things that little kids do.

If the League crumbles there will be anarchy everywhere, no King Kong to fear anymore, and the natives will go berserker. Every system is not the altruistic paragon of human kindness. It won't just be Silesia that is bankrupt of peace and order where lawlessness is the norm. Silesia is the ghetto because it is on the fringe of humanity. Systems have to fight for what they get. Fracturing League systems will also have to jockey for position however they can. They will be cutting ties with the League altogether. The League isn't going to say "Ok, leave us. But we'll continue to trade with you. You can continue to use our freighters, etc., etc." Some systems are going to suffer without more than just a trade agreement with the SEM. Or it will become Silesia all over again. If Manticore does not absorb systems then the RF will have its objectives laid out on a red carpet, for the taking -- only they won't have to take. By that time systems will be begging for another moderator. You don't miss your water until the well runs dry. Remember, the League is corrupt, yes. But there are still benefits of being a part of it.

All IMHO of course.[/quote]