I predict that the Solarian League will survive.

Theemile wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Interesting twist? Perhaps 20 years later. For this story, the MAlign can't build enough of the LennyDs to do anything more than inconvenience the GA. The MAlign would be massively stupid to reveal that capability before they have a decisive edge. No matter how effective the LennyDs are, the MAlign don't have enough to offset the GA SD advantage, especially when KHII capabilities are tossed into the mix.

I would love for the LennyDs to be deployed so early. That would guarantee both Haven and Manticore would fixate on the MAlign like a pit bull clamped on a victim's throat. That's not a twist as much a concession that the GA will be driven to build the biggest, baddest hammer their sneaky minds can envision to smash those elitist modder pockers!

We have text-ev that the most advanced Lenny Dets in early 1922 were only 1/2 completed, even though they were larger than the Sharks which massed between a BB and a DN (5-5.5 Mtons). We were also told that build rates were good, but could not match Manticore's build rates. Manticore's SD build rate in the first war was ~36 months, in the 2nd war, 20-24 months (for SD(p)s). Haven built SDs in ~48 months in the first war, 36-40 months (SD(p)) in the 2nd war, and the SL takes 60-72 months.

If we assume Havenite 1st war build rates, and a final mass of 10 Mtons, the first Lenny Dets will require 30 more months to complete and another 6-9 months to shake down. While Darius may have a faster build rate, most believe that the Lenny Dets are much larger than 10 Mtons(due to the internal carriage of the massive Graser Torps), which would more than offset any advances in productivity. In addition, Darius has new yards, with a fresh, though well trained workforce, and is building a new unique design. There is bound to be hic-ups in the production process.

In short, we cannot reasonably expect a Lenny Det to be fielded until AT LEAST the fall of 2025. But this being David, he can throw anything at us, including prototypes not mentioned, or the fact that all these numbers were wag, and "Honorverse Reality" is different.

However, I stick by my numbers, and wouldn't expect further serious Malign operations until fall of 1925, which something tells me will not be covered by this book.

A fast build rate is all well and good, but how many build slips are occupied in building these ships at any given time?

2 building slips with supporting infrastructure would mean 2 ships delivered and ready for working up every 30 months where 20 building slips would mean 20 Lennys every 30 months. I may have missed it (probably did actually) but I don't recall reading about how many Lennys were actually laid down and building at the same time.

Unless the numbers are there Darius may have the same problem WWII Japan had, able to produce monster first line battleships and carriers but only able to deliver one or two per year while the US at in 1941 had 8 or 10 modern battleships and a dozen or more Fleet Carriers (Essex class) building all at once, most of which would deliver for sea trials by mid 1943.

If the location of Darius or the MA main shipbuilding yards (if separate) becomes known to the GA ... a visit from Lady Alexander-Harrington and party can be expected in short order, but then I'm just stating the obvious.

Individually the Lenny Dets may outclass anything the GA can put up against them or even any 2 or 3 GA starships, but against odds of 20 or 40 to 1? "Quantity has a quality all its own" - attributed to J. Stalin.

Slips. What a charming idea. How about we just deliver parts and stuff to a nice stable spot in vacuum and assemble it there? I'll bet there is a lot of space in orbit say 600,000 km out. Given that the entire idea of Darius is a war factory (and proof of concept) I would tend to suspect they actually can manufacture significant amounts of stuff rapidly. Note that they didn't build a pair of test Sharks, they built multiple squadrons.

kzt wrote:Slips. What a charming idea. How about we just deliver parts and stuff to a nice stable spot in vacuum and assemble it there? I'll bet there is a lot of space in orbit say 600,000 km out. Given that the entire idea of Darius is a war factory (and proof of concept) I would tend to suspect they actually can manufacture significant amounts of stuff rapidly. Note that they didn't build a pair of test Sharks, they built multiple squadrons.

True enough as far as it goes. However, just how many ships can these guys build and support? I am sure they have the resource extraction capacity to build as many ships of all sorts as they can afford. Do they have enough resource extraction to also support the economy large enough to support the people necessary to maintain a large enough navy to defeat the GA now? I doubt it.

Will they have a large enough economy 20 years down the road? That depends on how they plan on fighting the GA. The more parity that exists between the RF/MAlign and the GA the more margin for error and flexibility they have to plan their war. The greater the disparity between the GA and the MAlign, the smaller the margin for error and more limited flexibility to plan. This assumes that the MAlign do not ever grow their economic base greater than the GA. This appears to be safe assumption if the GA retains control over their WHJs.

The biggest issue is sending resources into Darius. The more they send, the more likely Darius will be discovered. Unless they send significant amounts of resources into Darius, the war production capacity is limited to how quickly Darius can grow its economy using internal resources only. Which brings the Japan vs US comparison to center stage.

There are enough variables to make this an interesting story 20 years down the road. Right now, the variables all point to a run and hide strategy for the MAlign.

PeterZ wrote:The biggest issue is sending resources into Darius. The more they send, the more likely Darius will be discovered. Unless they send significant amounts of resources into Darius, the war production capacity is limited to how quickly Darius can grow its economy using internal resources only. Which brings the Japan vs US comparison to center stage.

The entire RMN fleet is supported and built by one system. As is the GSN.

kzt wrote:

PeterZ wrote:The biggest issue is sending resources into Darius. The more they send, the more likely Darius will be discovered. Unless they send significant amounts of resources into Darius, the war production capacity is limited to how quickly Darius can grow its economy using internal resources only. Which brings the Japan vs US comparison to center stage.

The entire RMN fleet is supported and built by one system. As is the GSN.

Yes, but the Manticoran Worm Hole Junction is one massive mechanism for exporting VERY high profit margin services that the entire galaxy finds very valuable. Look at it as a small tax on nearly all galactic foreign trade. Darius doesn't have that. So their economy has to be grown to a similar size without that ability to benefit from everyone else's trade. Darius simply can't do that growing without external infusions of material. Material that Darius doesn't have to make first, so they are free to make their weapons systems.

I don't mention population because they can clone a new generation of nearly any size to increase economic production.

What happen, if someone brings the allingnment into the Torch calculation?

Manticore send a science ship throw the Torch whormhole and it doesn´t come back. Maybe wrong calculation is the answer, but someone mentioned after the discovering of the allingnement, that some actions of the Mesan companies now makes sense as they act like goverments and not like companies.

Torch is such a case. Mesa owened the system at the Torch whormhole and has enough money to buy every whormhole scientist in the league and they couldn´t make it useable? Maybe it isn´t useble, but maybe the Allingnement stop them to keep the whormehole back.

If you bring the Allingnement into the calculation, you can decide to reproof the whormhole data and add the possibility, that the science ship pass the whormhole safely, but was destroyed by allingnement defenses, what really happend.

If Manticore take the risk to send a prepared ship throw the Torch whormhole, the allince could be at Darius very fast in the story line.

Nothing is going to survive entering the Torch wormhole from the Torch end if the Alignment blocking squadron stays there, parked right on top of the other end with weapons hot and essentialy zero range.
Just isn't going to happen

robert132 wrote:

Theemile"[quote="PeterZ wrote:Interesting twist? Perhaps 20 years later. For this story, the MAlign can't build enough of the LennyDs to do anything more than inconvenience the GA. The MAlign would be massively stupid to reveal that capability before they have a decisive edge. No matter how effective the LennyDs are, the MAlign don't have enough to offset the GA SD advantage, especially when KHII capabilities are tossed into the mix.

I would love for the LennyDs to be deployed so early. That would guarantee both Haven and Manticore would fixate on the MAlign like a pit bull clamped on a victim's throat. That's not a twist as much a concession that the GA will be driven to build the biggest, baddest hammer their sneaky minds can envision to smash those elitist modder pockers!

We have text-ev that the most advanced Lenny Dets in early 1922 were only 1/2 completed, even though they were larger than the Sharks which massed between a BB and a DN (5-5.5 Mtons). We were also told that build rates were good, but could not match Manticore's build rates. Manticore's SD build rate in the first war was ~36 months, in the 2nd war, 20-24 months (for SD(p)s). Haven built SDs in ~48 months in the first war, 36-40 months (SD(p)) in the 2nd war, and the SL takes 60-72 months.

If we assume Havenite 1st war build rates, and a final mass of 10 Mtons, the first Lenny Dets will require 30 more months to complete and another 6-9 months to shake down. While Darius may have a faster build rate, most believe that the Lenny Dets are much larger than 10 Mtons(due to the internal carriage of the massive Graser Torps), which would more than offset any advances in productivity. In addition, Darius has new yards, with a fresh, though well trained workforce, and is building a new unique design. There is bound to be hic-ups in the production process.

In short, we cannot reasonably expect a Lenny Det to be fielded until AT LEAST the fall of 2025. But this being David, he can throw anything at us, including prototypes not mentioned, or the fact that all these numbers were wag, and "Honorverse Reality" is different.

However, I stick by my numbers, and wouldn't expect further serious Malign operations until fall of 1925, which something tells me will not be covered by this book.

A fast build rate is all well and good, but how many build slips are occupied in building these ships at any given time?

2 building slips with supporting infrastructure would mean 2 ships delivered and ready for working up every 30 months where 20 building slips would mean 20 Lennys every 30 months. I may have missed it (probably did actually) but I don't recall reading about how many Lennys were actually laid down and building at the same time.

Unless the numbers are there Darius may have the same problem WWII Japan had, able to produce monster first line battleships and carriers but only able to deliver one or two per year while the US at in 1941 had 8 or 10 modern battleships and a dozen or more Fleet Carriers (Essex class) building all at once, most of which would deliver for sea trials by mid 1943.

If the location of Darius or the MA main shipbuilding yards (if separate) becomes known to the GA ... a visit from Lady Alexander-Harrington and party can be expected in short order, but then I'm just stating the obvious.

Individually the Lenny Dets may outclass anything the GA can put up against them or even any 2 or 3 GA starships, but against odds of 20 or 40 to 1? "Quantity has a quality all its own" - attributed to J. Stalin.[/quote]


Yes and no on the U.S. building capacity during WWII. Six Essex class carriers were commissioned during 1943. Seven in 44 and five in 45 along with several being completed in the 50's. A total of 24 were completed. As to modern U.S. battleships two were commissioned in 1940 but due to engineering problems were not ready until late 41 ad early 42, four commissioned 1942 followed by two in 43 and 44 respectively. This doesn't take into account the myriad of other ships commissioned at the same time. IIRC the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas had more shipbuilding capacity than all of Japan combined.

Brigade XO wrote:Nothing is going to survive entering the Torch wormhole from the Torch end if the Alignment blocking squadron stays there, parked right on top of the other end with weapons hot and essentialy zero range.
Just isn't going to happen

I was thinking that eventually, as Maldorian suggests, some sharp GA strategist will guess enemy action is the cause for the Torch WHJ difficulties. Sending in one of Crandall's SDs reconfigured to generate spherical sidewalls. Well, perhaps they opt for something better and send a Benjamin the Great class SD reconfigured to generate spherical sidewalls.

Going through the wormhole with sails and sidewalls might be survivable.

PeterZ wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Nothing is going to survive entering the Torch wormhole from the Torch end if the Alignment blocking squadron stays there, parked right on top of the other end with weapons hot and essentialy zero range.
Just isn't going to happen

I was thinking that eventually, as Maldorian suggests, some sharp GA strategist will guess enemy action is the cause for the Torch WHJ difficulties. Sending in one of Crandall's SDs reconfigured to generate spherical sidewalls. Well, perhaps they opt for something better and send a Benjamin the Great class SD reconfigured to generate spherical sidewalls.

Going through the wormhole with sails and sidewalls might be survivable.

Two points here. First, I seriously doubt that they don't have "enemy action" on the top of the possible list for the Torch wormhole. Either that, or three of the best intelligence analysts in the galaxy have suddenly decided to carry the Idiot Ball. As I've said before, a competent intelligence analyst never throws out a possibility until it's been affirmatively disproved. A review of how Bayesian statistics work would be helpful here.

Second, in current warships, sidewalls appear to be incompatible with sails. Why this is so is a mystery probably having to do with the Awesome Power of Plot.

It would require a significant research and development effort to manage to put sidewalls together with sails. If someone was silly enough to expend that effort, then all they would have would be a sitting duck for several minutes, with the defending force willing to expend dozens of SD-grade laser warheads to turn it into plasma.

The entire point of that kind of a probe is the same as any intelligence-gathering exercise: getting the data back.

I'm partial to the standard action in the Vor universe for an officer who suggests an assault through a defended wormhole.