I predict that the Solarian League will survive.

PeterZ wrote:It grows increasingly clear that the SLN commerce raiders can't attack systems with pods and LACs deployed in them. They can try but will die quite quickly as those systems will not have the resources to be merciful. Should the SLN attack, they die a quick death. Those commerce raiders won't attack convoys protected by GA CLs or DDs, let alone CAs. So they go after singletons, which returns very little for the effort being deployed to the task.

That leaves bullying the Verge and Protectorates. The SLN FF BCs will be effective in this until the GA sends units to kick them out. Since the League is at war with the GA, those units are appropriate targets. The BF SDs deployed in the Core worlds will get their own share of attention.


Agreed. Also, the Grand Alliance is doing raiding and are a lot more effective. They have junctions, they have the better ships. A small group, perhaps a couple of cruisers, a few DDs, and a CLAC can go to a busy planet and pick off ships as soon as they enter normal space around them.

Unless a really large Sollie fleet comes for them, they could do a real lot of damage. Not difficult to sell a lot of the better ships all over the former League either.

Chances are , a lot of the Battle Fleet ships will scuttle when meeting up with large numbers of Alliance ships.

The only viable way I see SLN units surviving is to defect to systems that secede from the League and loudly declare neutrality. Which sounds like the RF, no?

ldwechsler wrote:

PeterZ wrote:It grows increasingly clear that the SLN commerce raiders can't attack systems with pods and LACs deployed in them. They can try but will die quite quickly as those systems will not have the resources to be merciful. Should the SLN attack, they die a quick death. Those commerce raiders won't attack convoys protected by GA CLs or DDs, let alone CAs. So they go after singletons, which returns very little for the effort being deployed to the task.

That leaves bullying the Verge and Protectorates. The SLN FF BCs will be effective in this until the GA sends units to kick them out. Since the League is at war with the GA, those units are appropriate targets. The BF SDs deployed in the Core worlds will get their own share of attention.

Agreed. Also, the Grand Alliance is doing raiding and are a lot more effective. They have junctions, they have the better ships. A small group, perhaps a couple of cruisers, a few DDs, and a CLAC can go to a busy planet and pick off ships as soon as they enter normal space around them.

Unless a really large Sollie fleet comes for them, they could do a real lot of damage. Not difficult to sell a lot of the better ships all over the former League either.

Chances are , a lot of the Battle Fleet ships will scuttle when meeting up with large numbers of Alliance ships.

PeterZ wrote:The only viable way I see SLN units surviving is to defect to systems that secede from the League and loudly declare neutrality. Which sounds like the RF, no?

ldwechsler wrote:

PeterZ wrote:It grows increasingly clear that the SLN commerce raiders can't attack systems with pods and LACs deployed in them. They can try but will die quite quickly as those systems will not have the resources to be merciful. Should the SLN attack, they die a quick death. Those commerce raiders won't attack convoys protected by GA CLs or DDs, let alone CAs. So they go after singletons, which returns very little for the effort being deployed to the task.

That leaves bullying the Verge and Protectorates. The SLN FF BCs will be effective in this until the GA sends units to kick them out. Since the League is at war with the GA, those units are appropriate targets. The BF SDs deployed in the Core worlds will get their own share of attention.

Agreed. Also, the Grand Alliance is doing raiding and are a lot more effective. They have junctions, they have the better ships. A small group, perhaps a couple of cruisers, a few DDs, and a CLAC can go to a busy planet and pick off ships as soon as they enter normal space around them.

Unless a really large Sollie fleet comes for them, they could do a real lot of damage. Not difficult to sell a lot of the better ships all over the former League either.

Chances are , a lot of the Battle Fleet ships will scuttle when meeting up with large numbers of Alliance ships.

PeterZ wrote:The only viable way I see SLN units surviving is to defect to systems that secede from the League and loudly declare neutrality. Which sounds like the RF, no?

PeterZ wrote:Agreed. There lies the rub. If we are right, this book will be boring! Not willing to bet the farm on that, so where is the interesting twist? A long, drawn-out execution of the Sloarian League is just not that interesting. That execution as a description of how the RF plans to set up their final run and what the GA does as counter moves? That could be interesting....will be interesting. Dulong Mwenge Dabilenaren Eldbrand Bolivar Firebrand will play an interesting and heart wrenching role, I suspect.

PeterZ wrote:Interesting twist? Perhaps 20 years later. For this story, the MAlign can't build enough of the LennyDs to do anything more than inconvenience the GA. The MAlign would be massively stupid to reveal that capability before they have a decisive edge. No matter how effective the LennyDs are, the MAlign don't have enough to offset the GA SD advantage, especially when KHII capabilities are tossed into the mix.

I would love for the LennyDs to be deployed so early. That would guarantee both Haven and Manticore would fixate on the MAlign like a pit bull clamped on a victim's throat. That's not a twist as much a concession that the GA will be driven to build the biggest, baddest hammer their sneaky minds can envision to smash those elitist modder pockers!

Theemile wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Interesting twist? Perhaps 20 years later. For this story, the MAlign can't build enough of the LennyDs to do anything more than inconvenience the GA. The MAlign would be massively stupid to reveal that capability before they have a decisive edge. No matter how effective the LennyDs are, the MAlign don't have enough to offset the GA SD advantage, especially when KHII capabilities are tossed into the mix.

I would love for the LennyDs to be deployed so early. That would guarantee both Haven and Manticore would fixate on the MAlign like a pit bull clamped on a victim's throat. That's not a twist as much a concession that the GA will be driven to build the biggest, baddest hammer their sneaky minds can envision to smash those elitist modder pockers!

We have text-ev that the most advanced Lenny Dets in early 1922 were only 1/2 completed, even though they were larger than the Sharks which massed between a BB and a DN (5-5.5 Mtons). We were also told that build rates were good, but could not match Manticore's build rates. Manticore's SD build rate in the first war was ~36 months, in the 2nd war, 20-24 months (for SD(p)s). Haven built SDs in ~48 months in the first war, 36-40 months (SD(p)) in the 2nd war, and the SL takes 60-72 months.

If we assume Havenite 1st war build rates, and a final mass of 10 Mtons, the first Lenny Dets will require 30 more months to complete and another 6-9 months to shake down. While Darius may have a faster build rate, most believe that the Lenny Dets are much larger than 10 Mtons(due to the internal carriage of the massive Graser Torps), which would more than offset any advances in productivity. In addition, Darius has new yards, with a fresh, though well trained workforce, and is building a new unique design. There is bound to be hic-ups in the production process.

In short, we cannot reasonably expect a Lenny Det to be fielded until AT LEAST the fall of 2025. But this being David, he can throw anything at us, including prototypes not mentioned, or the fact that all these numbers were wag, and "Honorverse Reality" is different.

However, I stick by my numbers, and wouldn't expect further serious Malign operations until fall of 1925, which something tells me will not be covered by this book.

Theemile wrote:In short, we cannot reasonably expect a Lenny Det to be fielded until AT LEAST the fall of 2025. But this being David, he can throw anything at us, including prototypes not mentioned, or the fact that all these numbers were wag, and "Honorverse Reality" is different.

However, I stick by my numbers, and wouldn't expect further serious Malign operations until fall of 1925, which something tells me will not be covered by this book.