I predict that the Solarian League will survive.

I saw a documentation about hydroponic farming on TV. It is right, one of the most impüortant thing is energy for the lamps, so in Honorverse it would be easy to keep the basic food support for the people of the core world´s. But it would be much more limited than the the offer of food they are normaly seeing in stores.

The people would be upset if there is no more milk, meat or choclate (contain´s milk) in thre stores, because you need a lot of space on a planet the grow animals.

I think, before a core world ask the Manties for help I think they would see what system defenses are on the market. Manticore has invented the pod layer, but missle container (satellites) with missles for system defending? That´s not an new idea and solly missles are not so good as Manty missles, but for system defense size doesn´t matter.

I see a run for everything that keep you independent from anyone else, so, good news for solly weapon traders.

Maldorian wrote:I see a run for everything that keep you independent from anyone else, so, good news for solly weapon traders.

Not just Solly arms merchants. Andermani, Erewhonese, Havenite, Grayson, Alizon, Zanzibar, and who knows how many others all have shipyards capable of making System defense missiles and pods, LACs, and (at least) light hyper-capable warships. Beowulf won't count as "Solly" as soon as they secede, so they will be a non-solly arms merchant in the near future.

I'm sure the Renaissance Factor will be offering some form of Self Defense Package as well, but with strings that make a mockery of "independent from everyone else."

I'm pretty sure Manticore (and the GA) would be perfectly happy to let systems go elsewhere for System Defense Packages since they can't possibly supply every (former) League member of Protectorate. Systems that are serious about System Defense and want the best possible package will seek out the GA for a Mycroft/Apollo/Super-LAC package with manufacturing licenses. Others will settle for cheaper, less expensive, options (or will fall for a deceptive sales-pitch,) and go elsewhere.

ThisName1 wrote:They've had to set all their final plans in motion early due to the discovery of the talbott terminus and the new proximity of Manticore. That's the biggest wrench.

I disagree. Their problem was they got impatient and decided to step up their timetable. That has been catastrophic for them.

So long as they stayed in the shadows and did nothing but a bit of nanotech the Manties would have known there was somebody out there stirring the pot but that's all. They very well might have been able to pull off their plan.

However, they started meddling in Talbott. That was the first real chink in their armor--when their ship got caught. Unlike the nanotech, it had a name. While it didn't point to the Alignment it pointed to Mesa and lead to the spy mission that has doomed them.

Yes, they are doomed. That spy mission lead to the Grand Alliance which meant the two greatest fleets in the galaxy were no longer pointed at each other, but mostly free to hunt the Alignment. Houdini was a hopeless failure--while they took or killed most anyone who knew about the Alignment they left a huge sign that said "we are hiding, not gone". While the Sollies might not read the sign correctly the GA certainly will.

Their wormhole will make it hard to follow them but the GA has a major bone to pick with them, they're going to keep looking--especially as they realize the Alignment won't be content to slink away and cease their plans. They need to hunt down and destroy the Alignment for their own safety.

If the Alignment doesn't slip up that means quite an investment in surveying star systems, but it's not impossible.

I suspect the RF won't be offering aid with onerous conditions.

They want people to join up freely. So they will be the ones who show up to help for free. Then point out how they have a plan to avoid this sort of problem in the future, since you can't count on someone being available to help out random strangers. But if you they don't want that, we can sell you some stuff at attractive prices...

kzt wrote:I suspect the RF won't be offering aid with onerous conditions.

They want people to join up freely. So they will be the ones who show up to help for free. Then point out how they have a plan to avoid this sort of problem in the future, since you can't count on someone being available to help out random strangers. But if you they don't want that, we can sell you some stuff at attractive prices...

Pretty much this, except for that last clause. The RF wants to rebuild the League with them (the MAlign) in charge. Selling defense systems that would be used against them in the future when they turn blatant Conquistador would be counter-productive. Any thing they sell will come with strings that retain ultimate control in RF-loyalist (aka MAlign) hands.

Their "iron fist" is going to be heavily smothered in velvet and soft-soap, but their ultimate goal means they are going to put (deceptively light)strings on everything they do. It might be a decade or more before they start pulling the strings into an inescapable net, but eventually they will pull everyone into a single star-nation with a Darius-like constitution that codifies slavery and second-class citizenship for "untermensch/"

Buying equipment from a 3rd party with the plan to use the equipment against that 3rd party is very dumb. There are so many ways that the 3rd party to render it useless, and they would be so many layers of systems so deeply layered it would be impossible to remove without the actual source code to every single component, and very competent engineers.

That isn't a real problem, it's kind of the way anyone who understands this would expect it to work.

Weird Harold wrote:The Mandarins are out of touch with reality and too arrogant to consider "losing face" by making peace with Manticore. They are much more concerned with CYA than they are with with resolving a situation they refuse to admit is anything like as serious as is the truth.

I disagree. It's not that they are too arrogant. It's that they know if they fail to at least appear to defeat Manticore that everyone will know the Sollies can be beaten---and it's only their reputation for invulnerability that holds their system together.

To back down is to have their whole system unravel and with it their ability to hide their misdeeds--thus it's their own necks on the line. When such people fall their usual fate is either to be executed or someone give them asylum to avoid a bloody showdown. Who is the neutral nation to do so in this case? I don't see one.

However logical backing down is as a nation it's not a logical course of action for the Mandarins.

kzt wrote:Buying equipment from a 3rd party with the plan to use the equipment against that 3rd party is very dumb.

Who said the buyer was planning to attack the seller? Circumstances change and today's friends can be tomorrows enemies regardless of what was originally planned.

What would be silly is for the RF to sell equipment to non-allies/members when their long term plan is Universal Domination(tm). One of the "strings" they would put on any such sale would be a "back-door self destruct" -- such as the scuttling charges in the PNE ships captured by Torch.

Loren Pechtel wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:The Mandarins are out of touch with reality and too arrogant to consider "losing face" by making peace with Manticore. They are much more concerned with CYA than they are with with resolving a situation they refuse to admit is anything like as serious as is the truth.

I disagree. It's not that they are too arrogant. It's that they know if they fail to at least appear to defeat Manticore that everyone will know the Sollies can be beaten---and it's only their reputation for invulnerability that holds their system together.

To back down is to have their whole system unravel and with it their ability to hide their misdeeds--thus it's their own necks on the line. When such people fall their usual fate is either to be executed or someone give them asylum to avoid a bloody showdown. Who is the neutral nation to do so in this case? I don't see one.

However logical backing down is as a nation it's not a logical course of action for the Mandarins.

The key thing for the Mandarins is to stay in power. If they can show that THEY were fooled by the Mesalliance, that they were betrayed, they might have wiggle room.

They can go after some of the people who've blocked intelligence sources. They can fire some underlings, particularly those without major connections.

And they can hold at least some of the League together. Maybe it will only be a few hundred planets but they're likely to be rich ones.

The elites everywhere care only about themselves. Stability is vital and they'll need SOMETHING. Keep in mind the UN leadership gets rich and there's only one world involved.

Weird Harold wrote:What would be silly is for the RF to sell equipment to non-allies/members when their long term plan is Universal Domination(tm). One of the "strings" they would put on any such sale would be a "back-door self destruct" -- such as the scuttling charges in the PNE ships captured by Torch.

I'd hardly be shocked to find that a S-400 missile in the hands of a Russian ally has a really terrible success ratio against actual Russian combat aircraft. Or that Patriots don't really seem to work very well against modern USAF aircraft in actual combat. There is a whole lot of very complex software embedded into those systems.