I predict that the Solarian League will survive.

PeterZ wrote:Where will the chaos happen? The Core League worlds can survive the economic chaos. The political chaos outside the Core won't do much to prevent the world's within the Core from regaining their balance.

The problem in the Core won't be economic as much as it will be Political -- The Mandarins' and SLN's hamfisted attempt to keep Beowulf from seceding is going to cause Core worlds to worry about something similar happening to them. When the Mandarins attempt to pass direct taxation or some other direct control, secession is going to spread like wildfire; the harder the Mandarins try to stop it, the more core worlds will be driven to secede.

With GA diplomats and Renaissance Factor diplomats stirring the pot and the MAlign's sleepers stirring the pot, Secession is going to spread like rabbits in Australia.

PeterZ wrote:
It is the Protectorates and the Verge that will become chaos. The GA can control them. They can't do it easily but they can do it. After all, the GA and Manticore in particular hold the sling that slew Goliath. It's is their stubborn refusal to bend a knee to the League that began the League's decline and eventual fall. That reputation will carry weight beyond the Core and Shell. That reputation will let them facilitate governments to organize in most places. Haven's manpower will further help tamp down the violence in more places. The threat of the GA's departure to allow the transstellars return will smooth over any residual violent passions.

Unfortunately, peoples doesn't work like that. When great empire disintegrates, there are always chaos & wars over remains. You couldn't intimidate peoples into submission just by reputation - especially if you are David that slew the Goliath. Because YOU JUST DEMONSTRATED EVERYONE, THAT GOLIATH COULD BE KILLED, AND YOU ARE THE NEW GOLIATH, for Pete's sake!

And it is much easier to kill David, than Goliath.

So basically, the Verge & Protectorates would be much more eager to challenge Manticoran control, that they were willing to challenge League's. Exactly because the Manticora & Co sucsessfully demonstrated, that any opponent could be defeated. Including Manticora, of course.

Of course, Manticorans & Co would inflict good and impair mercy with all their technical advantages. Point is, this never worked. The more ships Manticoran would blew up and more planets they occupe to install "good, fair and honest collaborators, er, rightful rulers", the more resistance they would met just because peoples generally don't like when they are taught to live in peace and prosperity by the heavy stick.

And we are talking about Honorverse. The universe, where EVERYONE could have a weapon of mass destruction (yes, impeller drive, which allow you to kill planets with old cargo haulers...). And no more UNDEFEATABLE League, to warn peoples against glassing the planets.

Let's not forget, that Eridani Edict was sucsessfull ONLY because it was League who enforced it. And League was able to do that because League was considered undefeatable. If you defeat the League... you would have a hell of time trying to claim that you are undefeatable now. And if someone would lost the patience and blow Manticore, Sphinx and Gryphon before that... well, let's just say that nobody would believe it.

Dilandu wrote:So basically, the Verge & Protectorates would be much more eager to challenge Manticoran control, that they were willing to challenge League's. Exactly because the Manticora & Co sucsessfully demonstrated, that any opponent could be defeated. Including Manticora, of course.

It is probably a "good thing" that Manticore has no intention of occupying or trying to control any former league protectorates or members.

You may have a point where the Renaissance Factor is concerned; they do plan to dominate a re-formed Solarian League.

Manticore was in no position to go directly after Manpower & Mesa prior to the sequence of Lynx Terminus/ Talbott Quadrant AND the revelations about the Alignment comming to them off Mesa after Oyster Bay.

It wasn't until well into the war with Haven that Manticore (and Haven) fought their way (literally) into the position of tec superiority and military capasity to even consider taking on the League---and that from any true standpoint- in a primarily defensive mode backed by the tactical and technical superiority of both Haven and Manticore.

Going at Mesa via the Sigma Draconis terminus and then only thrugh hypespace would have been a nightmare for Manticore. Not only would it have to deal with the MSDF and then effectivly occupy Mesa, it would have had to deal with pressure from the League with all the people who were deeply invested in Mesa's continuing profitability even with the genetic slavery issuer. Then there would have been Haven at their back with a major portion of the RMN away --far far away--and everything else spead thin.

One of the reasons Beowulf has such a relatively large SDF was the fear that if (or more likely when) PRH took Manticore, they would also then try to grab the Sigma Dracois end of the terminus and perhaps take Beowulf as well. Beowulf would not have wanted to have to wait for the SLN to show up, rather they would have -probably- offered sanctuary to the RMN ships at their end of the terminus and occupied it themselves. Or at least let the RMN force get clear to fight in exile rather than surrender to Haven. Tricky diplomatic stuff but posession of their end of the terminus would be a really big chip to hold and THEN have SLN backing them up would have at least slowed Haven. All speculation of course.


The Core Worlds portion of the League should survive, net of Beowulf and a few others, but the Protectorates are going to end up leaving in droves as fast as they can find the best (least bloody) way to get OFS out of their systems.
Not sure how they are going to rewrite the League Constitution but there is going to be a lot of very unhappy people in the League Bureaucracy with almost any changes that get forced on it in the backlash of where the Mandarins have stuck the League in a corner and refused to address the basic problems.

Visagoth is a League Member and an RF member. There is still going to be a problem for the GA and the League with the RF even if not quite the way that the Detweiler Plan had it sketched out. Visagoth may pull out of the League or it may stay in, either way, it's Alpha Line operatives who are in control are going to have a say in what happens in the systems in it's neighborhood vis the League and what happens next.

Brigade XO wrote:
One of the reasons Beowulf has such a relatively large SDF was the fear that if (or more likely when) PRH took Manticore, they would also then try to grab the Sigma Dracois end of the terminus and perhaps take Beowulf as well. Beowulf would not have wanted to have to wait for the SLN to show up, rather they would have -probably- offered sanctuary to the RMN ships at their end of the terminus and occupied it themselves.

Logically, the Beowulf termini is the most easy way for any potential outsider to attack the Core Worlds. So, logically, the bulk of SLN should be based exactly here, or in close proximity, and the Beowulf SDF should act as a vanguard against possible invaders.

Brigade XO wrote:Manticore was in no position to go directly after Manpower & Mesa prior to the sequence of Lynx Terminus/ Talbott Quadrant AND the revelations about the Alignment comming to them off Mesa after Oyster Bay.

It wasn't until well into the war with Haven that Manticore (and Haven) fought their way (literally) into the position of tec superiority and military capasity to even consider taking on the League---and that from any true standpoint- in a primarily defensive mode backed by the tactical and technical superiority of both Haven and Manticore.

Going at Mesa via the Sigma Draconis terminus and then only thrugh hypespace would have been a nightmare for Manticore. Not only would it have to deal with the MSDF and then effectivly occupy Mesa, it would have had to deal with pressure from the League with all the people who were deeply invested in Mesa's continuing profitability even with the genetic slavery issuer. Then there would have been Haven at their back with a major portion of the RMN away --far far away--and everything else spead thin.

One of the reasons Beowulf has such a relatively large SDF was the fear that if (or more likely when) PRH took Manticore, they would also then try to grab the Sigma Dracois end of the terminus and perhaps take Beowulf as well. Beowulf would not have wanted to have to wait for the SLN to show up, rather they would have -probably- offered sanctuary to the RMN ships at their end of the terminus and occupied it themselves. Or at least let the RMN force get clear to fight in exile rather than surrender to Haven. Tricky diplomatic stuff but posession of their end of the terminus would be a really big chip to hold and THEN have SLN backing them up would have at least slowed Haven. All speculation of course.


The Core Worlds portion of the League should survive, net of Beowulf and a few others, but the Protectorates are going to end up leaving in droves as fast as they can find the best (least bloody) way to get OFS out of their systems.
Not sure how they are going to rewrite the League Constitution but there is going to be a lot of very unhappy people in the League Bureaucracy with almost any changes that get forced on it in the backlash of where the Mandarins have stuck the League in a corner and refused to address the basic problems.

Visagoth is a League Member and an RF member. There is still going to be a problem for the GA and the League with the RF even if not quite the way that the Detweiler Plan had it sketched out. Visagoth may pull out of the League or it may stay in, either way, it's Alpha Line operatives who are in control are going to have a say in what happens in the systems in it's neighborhood vis the League and what happens next.

All good points, but Manticore was CAPABLE of such an attack for over 300 years. Mesa's SDF had ~3 squadrons of BCs in 1923 - Manticore had 3 squadrons of wallers for 75 years leading up to 1850, and at least eleven BBs for more than 150 years prior to that. All that time the mobile force was a BACKUP to the fixed defenses , and could be deployed (as 12 ships were to deal with the Silesian crises in the wake of the battle of Carson.)

Yes, there would be political ramifications, yes there would be dangers. But it COULD have been done at any time leading up to the present.

BUT, Manticore had more important fish to fry: Silesia, the Andermani, San Martin, Haven, and all the other crises have been listed as higher threats and concerns.

As I said above - in 1919, Manticore had no intention of invading Mesa, save a musty policy plan in a case labeled "Break Glass in Case of Emergency". If you asked anyone, including Henke, if she would be attacking Mesa in 1922, they would have said, "it would be nice, but no." Manticore simply had more important things to deal with.

But Mesa had to do a figurative strip tease in front of Manticore's front porch in the middle of the day while shooting at Manticore's house. Mesa was so afraid of Manticore attacking them, that they poked the bear repeatedly - and it eventually turned around and bit it back.

Why are the mandarin´s still the boss in their Department´s?

Till Filiarta´s attack at manticore it was buisyness as usaual.

But then?

Lacoon is a big rock at the neck of the league! Can the core world´s feed their people with the resurces of their planet´s? What is with the economy? I fear, that the resurces of minerals are already mined out at the core world´s, so raw material has to be shipped to the core. To limited transport capaticity, not enough material for factories, factories have to close, jobless, angry people, angry against their politicans, because their politicans doesn´t do anything against it.

Would´t it be easier to "retire" the current mandarin´s, send an excuse for the misunderstanding the mandarin´s created and back to normal with open whormholes and a manty trading fleet in solarian space.

Maldorian wrote:Why are the mandarin´s still the boss in their Department´s?

Till Filiarta´s attack at manticore it was buisyness as usaual.

But then?

Lacoon is a big rock at the neck of the league! Can the core world´s feed their people with the resurces of their planet´s? What is with the economy? I fear, that the resurces of minerals are already mined out at the core world´s, so raw material has to be shipped to the core. To limited transport capaticity, not enough material for factories, factories have to close, jobless, angry people, angry against their politicans, because their politicans doesn´t do anything against it.

Would´t it be easier to "retire" the current mandarin´s, send an excuse for the misunderstanding the mandarin´s created and back to normal with open whormholes and a manty trading fleet in solarian space.

Chances are, you are probably more or less correct. Actually, with as many planets that it had at the start, it could lose a lot of them and still be viable. Haven had around 20 and it was the second largest empire.

The League will get battered. Commerce raiding sounds good but a 1700 planet empire is far more vulnerable than one with a dozen or so planets. Particularly when those planets can have advanced defenses.

Also, commerce raiding by the Manties, etc. can be far more damaging than that done by the Sollies. They have a real lot of ships and they could grab ships on the way to the richest planets.

I would guess Audrey O'Hanrahan, the gal who works for the Mesalliance and who claims that the Grand Alliance bombed Mesa could be questioned with treecats present.

Then the cops and intelligence people on Earth will get evidence of the treason. There will be a mess and the bureaucrats will either resign or make a deal with Manticore. And that will be tricky since Manticore will be very suspicious of the Sollies using the time to build up their tech.

ldwechsler wrote:
I would guess Audrey O'Hanrahan, the gal who works for the Mesalliance and who claims that the Grand Alliance bombed Mesa could be questioned with treecats present.

The overuse of treecats might represent a problem. Basically, no people like the idea of their brains being scanned, especially by some alien furball. If someone put one and one and started to shout "beware, those darn Manties want to establish mind-control dictature!" - the GA wouldn't stand a chance of snowball on sun photosphere against billions of frightened peoples all across the League. Because the mere idea of mind reading being used as political instrument... would make Mandarins and even Mesa look not so bad.

Propaganda...

Maldorian wrote:Why are the mandarin´s still the boss in their Department´s?

Till Filiarta´s attack at manticore it was buisyness as usaual.

But then?

Lacoon is a big rock at the neck of the league! Can the core world´s feed their people with the resurces of their planet´s?

There is no such thing as "planet that couldn't feed itself". For Pete's sake, in Honorverse the energy is dirt-cheap! They could just sythesize food components from any carbon stuff they have. This probably wouldn't be very tasty food, but the starvation is, frankly, impossible.