This prediction is based on the fact that things are going well for the Mesan Alignment but not perfectly. So far it seems that there is always a wrench in the gears somewhere for all the major MA plans. They succeed in their biggest goals but are never quite perfect.
They've had to set all their final plans in motion early due to the discovery of the talbott terminus and the new proximity of Manticore. That's the biggest wrench.
They had to launch oyster bay early using the wrong ships, but it went off perfectly. But their navy isn't as far along as its supposed to be.
The Battle of Monica killed their plans to kick the manties out of talbott but did start the ball rolling on getting manticore and the league shooting at each other. So partial success.
The plan to foment rebellion with fake promises of manticoran assistance in the verge was succeeding perfectly until Manticore actually started providing the promised assistance, and now firebrand is captured. Another mostly successful operation.
They got most of their people off of mesa before the GA showed up, but did have to kill a lot of the people they wanted to evac, and in a very high profile way. They even lost Albrecht Detweiler and his wife. But they still have their sons and are using the killings as another wedge between the League and the Manties in the court of public opinion. Yet another partial success.
This is all pure speculation but if this theme continues the league will shed systems, lose power, and prestige but survive. Under new management yes. Ad with a new, or at least heavily amended, constitution. But with enough power to act as a stabilizing force that will keep enough chaos down that the Renaissance Factor will not be able to grab as many worlds as they like.
