GA response to SL attempts to prevent seccessions

kzt wrote:You don't really have to understand how something works to make effective use of it. You just have to understand what it does and what it can't do. Last I knew nobody at the apple store is making you take tests in semiconductor physics or verify your degree in RF engineering before allowing you to buy an iPhone, but people seem to do OK with them anyhow.

cthia wrote:

kzt wrote:You don't really have to understand how something works to make effective use of it. You just have to understand what it does and what it can't do. Last I knew nobody at the apple store is making you take tests in semiconductor physics or verify your degree in RF engineering before allowing you to buy an iPhone, but people seem to do OK with them anyhow.

PeterZ wrote:Tell that to Dr. Ben Carson and his brother Curtis, an aeronautical engineer. Poor beginnings in Detroit, single and illiterate mother. Both brothers worked hard and found professional success. If one is sufficiently stubborn, one can succeed at quite a few endeavors.

The point is to attract those who have the determination to succeed regardless of possible disadvantages. Prep courses simply provide tools for the driven student. The individual students provide the characteristic that the service will shape.

cthia wrote:Do you consider those two average students?

That may or may not be the point. But the practice at these universities is to only accept those students amongst those who are attracted that are deemed probable of excelling, not simply passing, the rigorous instruction. There are a limited amount of slots at these academies and universities. And in the RMNA to turn out exceptional students would be their mission statement to maintain their exceptional navy. Certainly to graduate instead of fail.

Manticore was in a fight for its life with a ravenous appetite for officers and failing any student would not have been what they would want to do. They certainly do not have the time to accept enrollment of students inadequately prepared and who most likely would fail. Would there be exceptions, certainly, but the RMN cannot afford to enroll or recruit from a pool of inadequately educated applicants. These type universities and academies are not in the habit of taking chances with less than stellar educations and performances. In fact, even students with stellar educations and performances are advised to go the extra mile and ramp up their transcripts with extracurricular activites, clubs, outside interest, etc., etc., and still may not be accepted. These universities and academies are in the habit of churning out the top percentiles and guaranteeing careers.

Dr. Ben Carson and his brother Curtis are exceptions who themselves most likely would not have been given a chance at many of the elite universities. I don't make the rules or the realities. I'm just the messenger.

.

PeterZ wrote:They aren't average. However, did they work themselves to success or were they simply genius intelects? My take is a bit more the former with solid intellectual abilities.

The entire point is attracting the best of these systems and educating them, shaping them into the sort of naval personnel the GA can work with to survive the upcoming battle of survival. The entire thread discusses how the GA moves to prevent secessions. Shoring up the Verge and Former protectorates is part of that effort.

So it doesn't matter that the average or even the moderately good doesn't make it to Saganami Island. So long as the best have an opportunity even if some have to work harder than others, the program will be a success. Whatever advantages or disadvantages people have doesn't matter, so long as the competitive field demands the same standards for success for all participants.

PeterZ wrote:Cthia,

The Old Kingdom has approximately 10 billion residents between Manticoe, Sphynx, Gryphon, Trevor's Star and Lynx. The Talbott Quadrant has approximately 40 billion people. The Madras sector likely has twice as many star systems and another 80 billion more people who might join the Manticoran Economic Alliance. We are talking about an expansion of an order of magnitude greater than the RMN has been working with.

Second point is that we currently have solid tests that correlate strongly with graduation from college. Saganami Island has had experience with the old Manticoran Alliance members sending students. Those nations found themselves in much the same circumstances as Talbott and the Verge nations introduced in Sadow of Victory. Saganami Island understands quite well what qualities and experience their prospective students need to graduate from their experiences.

Setting those standards high enough to keep enrollment up to generating enough officers to sustain the Alliance members navies. It makes sense for the SEM to educate naval officers serving in the Alliance navies. That sort of common foundation in naval personnel will improve communication and cooperation on an operations level as well as a I shared cultural awareness on a broader level. Those Alliance members will gladly contribute to expanding Saganami Island as part of their contribution to the Alliance military.

Bottom line is that the population base will certainly provide a pool of qualified applicants. Those applicants may have to prepare harder to be accepted, but so what? That's part of the selection process. So, I really don't understand your concern. The education at The Island won't be degraded and the expanded cultural diversity stemming from including a large number of new Alliance members will add to the ultimate effectiveness of the Alliance.

Theemile wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Top posting so the relevant discussion is available below.

As for the size of the Protectorates, I've seen numbers from 50-2000 thrown around, with top and bottom numbers being questionable (Especially since we've seen interactions with 30-40 protectorates in the books, and given the shape of the map and how dense we know the core to NOT be, the SL ruling over 4000 worlds doesn't make sense.) My assumption is a conservative range many have agreed upon - if the actual number of protectorates is higher, it just adds to the number of systems required to picket and the complexity of the task suggested.

Agreed on the data points you brought up to RFC, however it may be retconned. In SITS (yes I know, semi-canonical), the IAN situation book emphasized that the IAN was LAC heavy in 1900, with large wings of LACs deployed in each system. This LAC heavy doctrine (which may have influenced later RMN CLAC doctrine), would free lighter units for convoy and scouting duties while the LACs take inner system patrol duties.

In WoH or AAC, we see Diamato musing about his BC's (Havenite) being rebuilt with fewer energy mounts and more Anti-missile systems, with few new builds. The war with Manticore probably ate up many light units, followed by the civil war, and finally the splintering of the newer conquests probably saw many light units lost or being taken by seceding systems. And seeing Haven had a small FOREIGN footprint with it's merchant marine and has always been the aggressors against a much smaller adversary, I can see that it never gained convoy experience per-war or had built expecting to need it, since the majority of it's merchies moved from one well defended system to another.

My comment about Grayson was not a comment about it's light units, they have a small merchant marine and 1 "colony", so they do not need many of the traditional DD/CL roles, especially in the CLAC era; however, the number of wallers they have is overly extraneous for their needs - even when they adjust after the wars are over and dump the non-Podlayers, their wall will be massive for their needs in relation to the rest of the universe.

That being said, I always felt that all the big navies had low light unit numbers. The proper pre-war wall doctrine for every waller squadron, had 1 BC or CA squadron tied in close to the wall to defend vulnerable aspects of the wallers, and a DD/CL squadron tied close to the Cruisers to protect them as well. In addition the close screen, you should have a mid screen of a squadron or more of CA/CLs positioned at the edge of missile range, and 1-2 squadrons of DD/CLs for scouting/antiscouting purposes - for each Waller squadron!

Obviously, the outer screens for a fleet of 10 SD squadrons does not need 10 squadrons for the mid screen and 10-20 squadrons for the outer screen, but you should build your forces as if you need them, because they were deployed in squadron size to various hot spots as needed.

Just in this screening role, the RMN should have had ~600 BC/CAs and >600 CL/DDs - where it only had ~530 BC/CAs and 780 CL/DDs total. For commerce raiding, deep raiding, strategic scouting, merchant protection, and show the flag duties, as well as system picketing and sensor ghost chasing, in addition to Fleet picket and scout duties, the RMN should have had >2x the number of light and medium units it actually had in it's OOB in 1905.

And the PRH, with ~825 wallers, ~290 BC/CAs and ~980 CL/DDs should have had more.


quote="lyonheart"Hello TheEmile,

Thanks for another set of excellent points.

I've forgotten how detail my comments within another post but to hope to respond more specifically below:

Theemile wrote:Refining KZT's point, let's define the players. The League has just under 1800 members, and an unknown number of protectorates (probably somewhere between 200 and 500). With wormholes, double planet systems, military bases, etc, we could easily say that there are 2500 major "targets" in the League.

[/The textev repeatedly says 'several hundred protectorates', which I take to mean at least 600, while the number of known wormhole termini is probably between 50-60 throughout interstellar humanity's explored space, and given the SL's penchant for corruption, I doubt there are few naval bases in uninhabited systems within the SL, when so much can be made by the host system, so I'll buy approximately 2500 total potential targets, but note they aren't all simultaneously critically important]

Assuming the RMN has retired or sold off most of the light and legacy fleet units seen in the 1920 fleet list and extrapolating from HOS's build numbers ( as well as figuring in known losses) we can figure that the active Manty fleet is probably smaller than 2000 units, with ~25% being capital ships. Grayson's fleet is insanely top heavy, with capital ships being over half of it's ~500 ships.

[/Very good, yet keep in mind the 1920 FSC is often contradicted by HoS; and given OB, I suspect all escorts are being retained to cope with the construction crisis, which would include some 700 'legacy' ships of the 840 on the chart, while the last ten monthes of new construction was certainly greater than the first ten monthes (391 CA's, CL's, and DD's) so some 900 N/C should also be in service, along with approximately one hundred more BCP/L's and CLAC's, for a total of 200 each, besides 2-300 SDP's and the 230 old SD's, for something between 2400-2500.

The GSN's OoB isn't that strange since it doesn't have the MMM to protect, so aside from fleet work, they just have just a few local convoys to near neighbors, NTM HoS credits them with 54 DD's not 20, and 40 not 60 CA's.

Compared to the other fleets listed, the GSN's is fairly reasonable, the rest are truly ludicrous given their obvious requirements.

Indeed at the first HonorCon I managed to talk to RFC while he was waiting to sign books, and pestered him into admitting the IAN's listed escorts were far too few {which is why he signed my SoS HB with "I should have paid more attention!" , although that was even more true of the RHN's, given 150 star system's to patrol and protect.

According to the chart, the IAN had only 280 active and 60 reserve cruisers and destroyers to patrol and protect ~39 star systems before adding Silesia's 33+ [their 51+%], which using the n(n-1)/2 rule to determine the number of potential routes (741) that free trade and commerce might choose to use, and while smaller distributed networks of only around 4-5 systems in ~5-6 weeks could drastically reduce convoy routes to perhaps 5-6%, the rate or frequency of visits (requiring more escorts) is critical to keeping the economy moving if not growing smoothly.

Indeed back at the bar, I argued the grossly inadequate peep escorts were a major reason the peep economy was choking if not starving; there weren't enough convoys moving enough goods fast enough.

My solution to this was to infer that all peep escorts of 5/8's or less tonnage than the latest RMN class [ie >53.125 Kt, which given the RHN was estimated to be ~25% superior to peep's of the same size meant the old ones had a less than 50% chance of surviving] were turned over to the commerce or interior ministries, to help deal with pirates (though some were ex-naval units from occupied systems), who generally had worse ships, and while the numbers were still grossly inadequate, any escort was far better than none.

Of course it might have helped that most such peep convoys may not have carried cargoes pirates wanted.

Unfortunately, it didn't seem appropriate or courteous to go back to my room to find my notes then return and lay all of my figures and reasoning on a hapless RFC, when he couldn't do the same.

So the great influx of thousands of MMM freighters into the RoH might turn out to be the best economic shot in the arm the RoH's more distant systems has yet experienced.

Thus, while the RHN's 571 escorts look better than the IAN's 340, the diminished RoH still had ~150 star systems for over 11,000 potential separate routes, so even 1% of those arranged for convoy routes makes the chart figures pitiful even without any for working for the fleet.]


We don't know Haven's build numbers yet, but the 1920 fleet list shows Haven's small fraction of light units. The massive losses at Manticore really hurt their light forces ( 100 CA and BCs were destroyed) in addition to the losses from Honor's raids. Unless they kicked up their light construction, we can extrapolate their 1923 fleet to be ~2000-2500 ships, with a capital fraction over 50%.

[/Since the RoH has some 40 industrialized systems, assigning several to construct each class should turn out huge numbers in the ~33 monthes since the second war began.

I think we all agree that Bolthole had to be doing some R&D on all RHN classes, though SDP's and CLAC's had the obvious maximum priority, and thence provided construction blueprints to each ship class group when the new design was approved [fairly quickly given the exigences of the war]; HoL will be very intriguing indeed.

With 12-13 times the number of industrialized star systems, and at least a 75% longer construction period (since the war began), twice or even three times the SKM/SEM's new construction total to OB seems very possible, for a combined total closer to 6000, leaving out the IAN which should add another 1000+.]

So the GA has ~4500-5000 warships from it's 3 major players to defend itself, it's convoys AND take the fight to the opposition.

And then there comes the problem of how the GA will know what anyone in the SL is doing. The major information gathering arm, the MMM, has been pulled from SL space, and some planets are still a month or more from a wormhole via DB; unless you send a ship to every target, you don't know what they are doing. And doing so will stretch the GA
fleets too far.

[/Since the GA has 8-10 times the combat power per ship of the SLN, thanks to the MDM pod (if not more, according to the number of pods carried); far smaller TG's, of less than 1% in terms of numbers and tonnage, can respond to handle the secession mission.

Laocoon was only initiated in March 1922, and by July Kolokoltsov knew the RMN had seized 80% of the hyper bridge termini, with news of more obviously in transit; so restoring trade to those areas now under GA control could begin to repair the damage and dislocation of the past 7 if not 4 monthes.

In terms of intel, there are the 200+ captured FF ships, if the GA can't use its own with SLN transponders to check on things in a variety of ways, presumably prioritized for strategic concerns.

Thanks again for the excellent post,

L

cthia wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Cthia,

The Old Kingdom has approximately 10 billion residents between Manticoe, Sphynx, Gryphon, Trevor's Star and Lynx. The Talbott Quadrant has approximately 40 billion people. The Madras sector likely has twice as many star systems and another 80 billion more people who might join the Manticoran Economic Alliance. We are talking about an expansion of an order of magnitude greater than the RMN has been working with.

Second point is that we currently have solid tests that correlate strongly with graduation from college. Saganami Island has had experience with the old Manticoran Alliance members sending students. Those nations found themselves in much the same circumstances as Talbott and the Verge nations introduced in Sadow of Victory. Saganami Island understands quite well what qualities and experience their prospective students need to graduate from their experiences.

Setting those standards high enough to keep enrollment up to generating enough officers to sustain the Alliance members navies. It makes sense for the SEM to educate naval officers serving in the Alliance navies. That sort of common foundation in naval personnel will improve communication and cooperation on an operations level as well as a I shared cultural awareness on a broader level. Those Alliance members will gladly contribute to expanding Saganami Island as part of their contribution to the Alliance military.

Bottom line is that the population base will certainly provide a pool of qualified applicants. Those applicants may have to prepare harder to be accepted, but so what? That's part of the selection process. So, I really don't understand your concern. The education at The Island won't be degraded and the expanded cultural diversity stemming from including a large number of new Alliance members will add to the ultimate effectiveness of the Alliance.

The concern would not be mine.

I agree for the most part Peter. I just do not see how the Verge in general could be ready for Saganami Island enrollment now. A fair amount of remedial education is needed. I thought we agreed on that.

Sure, other navies have been sending their officers to Saganami. But in my mind that is the same as on the job training (OJT). The fact that they are already officers in another navy is nothing less than the same remedial education in which I speak. They are receiving credit and academically benefiting for experience and time in grade. They won't exactly be lost in many of the classes at Saganami. Virgin Verge students however...

You do not want to dilute the premiere naval academy in the galaxy with substandard applicants. It takes time.

kzt wrote:They have literally millions of missiles on hand. They really don't need to be particularly concerned with ammunition expenditures. The only time anyone in the RMN has ever been concerned with ammunition conservation was Kuzak, who succeeded in dying with 90% of her ammunition still in magazines.

cthia wrote:The Naval Academy produces officers like Wanderman who didn't just know how to use the system but was actually intimate with it. (Thanks for the reminder ldwechsler.)

cthia wrote:Sure, other navies have been sending their officers to Saganami. But in my mind that is the same as on the job training (OJT). The fact that they are already officers in another navy is nothing less than the same remedial education in which I speak. They are receiving credit and academically benefiting for experience and time in grade. They won't exactly be lost in many of the classes at Saganami. Virgin Verge students however...

Shadows of Saganami: Ch 1 wrote:There were fewer non-Manticoran uniforms out there, as well, and the vast majority of the foreign ones which remained were the blue-on-blue of the Grayson Space Navy. Several of the Star Kingdom's smaller allies had cut back sharply on the midshipmen they sent to Saganami Island, and there were no Erewhonese uniforms at all. Dame Honor managed—somehow—to maintain her serene expression as she remembered the tight-faced midshipmen who had withdrawn from their classes in a body when their government denounced its long-standing alliance with the Star Kingdom of Manticore.