GA response to SL attempts to prevent seccessions

Jonathan_S wrote:I like understating the missile capabilities (I'm assuming those pods are full of MDMs: 65 million km and 0.8c) but I'd claim a bit more performance - 30 million km is close enough for someone carrying Cataphracts to think they've got a fighting chance with a ballistic coast phase thrown in.

I don't think it's a real secret anymore than GA MDMs had that 3rd drive - but you could claim 44 million km and (if you kept to that) you might make SL Intel think your final drive was, like their Cataphract 2nd stage, a fixed accel CM derived 75 second burn)

I don't think the third stage is general knowledge yet. Have we ever seen them do anything more than 2 + ballistic? I was going with the apparent policy of keeping the third stage secret until they actually need it.

And what good does it do them to use a ballistic stage on the Cataphracts when they don't even know where the target is?

The important aspect is that once the Sollies get burned once it lets a destroyer likely stand off a Sollie battle fleet. Also, it avoids any interference in the local decision because the locals have no idea the GA ship is there. One ship, away from the space lanes and in stealth will hide very well.

kzt wrote:It's like the chinese navy sending a warship to every island in Indonesia that is thinking about seceding.

There are 17,000 islands in Indonesia, and the PLAN combat fleet consists of:
1 aircraft carrier
4 amphibious transport docks
32 landing ship tanks
31 landing ship medium
29 destroyers
49 frigates
34 corvettes
109 missile boats
94 submarine chasers
17 gunboats
29 mine countermeasure vessels
68 submarines

It won't always work. The idea is not to provide anything like 100% security, it is to make it exceedingly expensive for the Sollies to try to do something about it.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Loren Pechtel,

Great idea , I like it!

I suspect using pods with longer ranged missiles than the Mk-16 would be preferred for such a mission, and the pre-Apollo Mk-23's etc have to be used up somewhere.

While we don't know if something the mass of a cruiser such as a Saganami-C could be as stealthy as a Roland in scouting a star system from 12+ light hours out, which would take 3.5-4 days to reach the system coasting at ~0.144 C, which probably took at least a few hours to reach without becoming too noticeable.

Granted the GA now has over a couple hundred FF ships [the ones on the 108 BF SD's aren't as good],so they know the limits of FF sensors and detectors, if they choose to do this.

A Sag-C with 40 pods could wreck or destroy 3 SD's or 20-24 BC's or the same as a couple of Roland's, since its always a good idea to send pairs for redundancy.

More important to cover more systems than to have redundancy. The basic idea is a very nasty trap for the Sollies trying to hold their systems.

Loren Pechtel wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:I like understating the missile capabilities (I'm assuming those pods are full of MDMs: 65 million km and 0.8c) but I'd claim a bit more performance - 30 million km is close enough for someone carrying Cataphracts to think they've got a fighting chance with a ballistic coast phase thrown in.

I don't think it's a real secret anymore than GA MDMs had that 3rd drive - but you could claim 44 million km and (if you kept to that) you might make SL Intel think your final drive was, like their Cataphract 2nd stage, a fixed accel CM derived 75 second burn)

I don't think the third stage is general knowledge yet. Have we ever seen them do anything more than 2 + ballistic? I was going with the apparent policy of keeping the third stage secret until they actually need it.

And what good does it do them to use a ballistic stage on the Cataphracts when they don't even know where the target is?

Well as soon as you fire you've pretty much lit off a flare showing where you all, the missile traces are unmistakable. Cataphracts launched towards that might not have the best targeting information but they're probably sufficiently threatening to push you into going active and bringing your active defenses online (rather thay trying to play a hole in space) and those have the downside of making you more visible (while also radically improving you ability to stop the incoming fire)

As for the 3rd drive you might be right. I went back and looked briefly and 2nd Manticore and the ranges were less than I thought - everybody appears to have been within 15 million km of their targets - way inside DDM range.


But the launch against Byng was equivalent to 30 million km (edge of DDM range - though Michele used towed Mk23s) and reports of that range had gone back to the League.

The real evidence would be that Crandal's force at Spindle was engaged from "five-three-point-niner-six million kilometers" (53,960,000 km) though the closing vector made that just a 7.5 minute, 450 second, launch which is equivalent to an at rest range of 45,643,500 km.
But I don't know if sufficiently detailed reports of that debacle got back to the League. If known, that range would imply either a 3rd drive (or extended range drives on a 2 drive missile; something we've never seen done).

Hello TheEmile,

Thanks for another set of excellent points.

I've forgotten how detail my comments within another post but to hope to respond more specifically below:


[quote="Theemile"][quote="kzt"]It's like the chinese navy sending a warship to every island in Indonesia that is thinking about seceding.

There are 17,000 islands in Indonesia, and the PLAN combat fleet consists of:
1 aircraft carrier
4 amphibious transport docks
32 landing ship tanks
31 landing ship medium
29 destroyers
49 frigates
34 corvettes
109 missile boats
94 submarine chasers
17 gunboats
29 mine countermeasure vessels
68 submarines[/quote]

Refining KZT's point, let's define the players. The League has just under 1800 members, and an unknown number of protectorates (probably somewhere between 200 and 500). With wormholes, double planet systems, military bases, etc, we could easily say that there are 2500 major "targets" in the League.

[/The textev repeatedly says 'several hundred protectorates', which I take to mean at least 600, while the number of known wormhole termini is probably between 50-60 throughout interstellar humanity's explored space, and given the SL's penchant for corruption, I doubt there are few naval bases in uninhabited systems within the SL, when so much can be made by the host system, so I'll buy approximately 2500 total potential targets, but note they aren't all simultaneously critically important]

Assuming the RMN has retired or sold off most of the light and legacy fleet units seen in the 1920 fleet list and extrapolating from HOS's build numbers ( as well as figuring in known losses) we can figure that the active Manty fleet is probably smaller than 2000 units, with ~25% being capital ships. Grayson's fleet is insanely top heavy, with capital ships being over half of it's ~500 ships.

[/Very good, yet keep in mind the 1920 FSC is often contradicted by HoS; and given OB, I suspect all escorts are being retained to cope with the construction crisis, which would include some 700 'legacy' ships of the 840 on the chart, while the last ten monthes of new construction was certainly greater than the first ten monthes (391 CA's, CL's, and DD's) so some 900 N/C should also be in service, along with approximately one hundred more BCP/L's and CLAC's, for a total of 200 each, besides 2-300 SDP's and the 230 old SD's, for something between 2400-2500.

The GSN's OoB isn't that strange since it doesn't have the MMM to protect, so aside from fleet work, they just have just a few local convoys to near neighbors, NTM HoS credits them with 54 DD's not 20, and 40 not 60 CA's.

Compared to the other fleets listed, the GSN's is fairly reasonable, the rest are truly ludicrous given their obvious requirements.

Indeed at the first HonorCon I managed to talk to RFC while he was waiting to sign books, and pestered him into admitting the IAN's listed escorts were far too few {which is why he signed my SoS HB with "I should have paid more attention!" , although that was even more true of the RHN's, given 150 star system's to patrol and protect.

According to the chart, the IAN had only 280 active and 60 reserve cruisers and destroyers to patrol and protect ~39 star systems before adding Silesia's 33+ [their 51+%], which using the n(n-1)/2 rule to determine the number of potential routes (741) that free trade and commerce might choose to use, and while smaller distributed networks of only around 4-5 systems in ~5-6 weeks could drastically reduce convoy routes to perhaps 5-6%, the rate or frequency of visits (requiring more escorts) is critical to keeping the economy moving if not growing smoothly.

Indeed back at the bar, I argued the grossly inadequate peep escorts were a major reason the peep economy was choking if not starving; there weren't enough convoys moving enough goods fast enough.

My solution to this was to infer that all peep escorts of 5/8's or less tonnage than the latest RMN class [ie >53.125 Kt, which given the RHN was estimated to be ~25% superior to peep's of the same size meant the old ones had a less than 50% chance of surviving] were turned over to the commerce or interior ministries, to help deal with pirates (though some were ex-naval units from occupied systems), who generally had worse ships, and while the numbers were still grossly inadequate, any escort was far better than none.

Of course it might have helped that most such peep convoys may not have carried cargoes pirates wanted.

Unfortunately, it didn't seem appropriate or courteous to go back to my room to find my notes then return and lay all of my figures and reasoning on a hapless RFC, when he couldn't do the same.

So the great influx of thousands of MMM freighters into the RoH might turn out to be the best economic shot in the arm the RoH's more distant systems has yet experienced.

Thus, while the RHN's 571 escorts look better than the IAN's 340, the diminished RoH still had ~150 star systems for over 11,000 potential separate routes, so even 1% of those arranged for convoy routes makes the chart figures pitiful even without any for working for the fleet.]


We don't know Haven's build numbers yet, but the 1920 fleet list shows Haven's small fraction of light units. The massive losses at Manticore really hurt their light forces ( 100 CA and BCs were destroyed) in addition to the losses from Honor's raids. Unless they kicked up their light construction, we can extrapolate their 1923 fleet to be ~2000-2500 ships, with a capital fraction over 50%.

[/Since the RoH has some 40 industrialized systems, assigning several to construct each class should turn out huge numbers in the ~33 monthes since the second war began.

I think we all agree that Bolthole had to be doing some R&D on all RHN classes, though SDP's and CLAC's had the obvious maximum priority, and thence provided construction blueprints to each ship class group when the new design was approved [fairly quickly given the exigences of the war]; HoL will be very intriguing indeed.

With 12-13 times the number of industrialized star systems, and at least a 75% longer construction period (since the war began), twice or even three times the SKM/SEM's new construction total to OB seems very possible, for a combined total closer to 6000, leaving out the IAN which should add another 1000+.]

So the GA has ~4500-5000 warships from it's 3 major players to defend itself, it's convoys AND take the fight to the opposition.

And then there comes the problem of how the GA will know what anyone in the SL is doing. The major information gathering arm, the MMM, has been pulled from SL space, and some planets are still a month or more from a wormhole via DB; unless you send a ship to every target, you don't know what they are doing. And doing so will stretch the GA
fleets too far.[/quote]

[/Since the GA has 8-10 times the combat power per ship of the SLN, thanks to the MDM pod (if not more, according to the number of pods carried); far smaller TG's, of less than 1% in terms of numbers and tonnage, can respond to handle the secession mission.

Laocoon was only initiated in March 1922, and by July Kolokoltsov knew the RMN had seized 80% of the hyper bridge termini, with news of more obviously in transit; so restoring trade to those areas now under GA control could begin to repair the damage and dislocation of the past 7 if not 4 monthes.

In terms of intel, there are the 200+ captured FF ships, if the GA can't use its own with SLN transponders to check on things in a variety of ways, presumably prioritized for strategic concerns.

Thanks again for the excellent post,

L

I thought we'd been told that part of the reason the escort numbers were low is that convoying is the exception rather than the rule.

Given a near impossibility to achieve detection and interception while in hyper piracy focuses on haunting the edges of nearly defenseless systems. Even LACs backed by a couple hyper capable warships are sufficient to chase off most pirates.

The RMN had to convoy in Silesia because virtually all the system were undefended (and/or in collusion with the pirates). And you have to escort military convoys near the front because naval raids pack more firepower than pirates (and are more willing to actually fight to capture / destroy their targets) and there aren't enough ships to hold every captured system strongly enough to resist that kind of raid (in many cases the convoy escort was almost as strong as the system picket). (Besides even if you could scrape up the forces to fight off any plausible system raid it just makes your pickets strong enough to be worth mousetrapping with a few divisions of wallers - to defeat you in detail.

But within Haven most ships should be able to safely transit solo from reasonable secure system to reasonsbly secure system - no convoy required.


All that said, it's still quite possible that RFC still failed to account for how many escorts each navy would plausibly need to cover all it's duties over all it's territory. But you shouldn't need the numbers it would take if all wartime shipping in the Honorverse was being convoyed with protection similar to 1944 Atlantic convoys.

We have already been told that the RMN is going to respond to ANY request by any organization on a Verge planet that comes to them in responce to a "Manticore" offer of support in their uprising against present government. The Queen and Government has decided that to do any less is to risk blackening the name and reputation of Manticore.

That will result in at least a ship or two is going to respond to any request and quite probably show up while things are hot or about to be hot or are finished and have resulted in regime change or a bloodbath of rebel forces and quite likely a large number of civilians.
Either way, the RMN will show un and ther is quite likely to be one or more SLN warships (and possibly chartered transports) in system.
As things now stand, with Manticore in a state of war with the SL, the minimum that is going to happen is the RMN force is going to destroy or render combat ineffective (make the SLN crew abandon and then slag the computers) in the course of discoveing what the situation now is on the said planet and if they can help.
Not sure what the actual rules of warfare are in this case for the Honorverse, but since these are Verge systems and at least nominaly independent even if under the "Protection" of OFS/FF, I would think any SLN ship found in-system would be fair game.
Besides, if the pre-revolt govenment is still in charge (embattled or still crushing opposition in a mopping up phase) it is quite likely that they will insist that any SLN warships present chase off the Manticore ships. Until they fully understand the relative differences, the SLN warship(s) might just attempt to do that anyway to "defend" the system from Manticore's predation as is being spouted by the Mandarins propaganda.

Even if Manticore has not started getting proactive about going looking in the Verge for people who expect their assistance, it might be worthwhile to have GA units starting sweeping by Verge systems looking for SLN ships and just eliminating them. They ARE at war with the SL and destroying individual SLN ships (and at least temporatily) stranding their (surviving) crews on Verge planets has got to help.

Reactions to assist LEAGUE MEMBERS in ceceeding from the SL is more problematical. 1st you have to know it is going on. Then you have to -at least for the forseable future- dance with each individual situation as is happening with Beowulf. It carries the same levels of political and perception problems as trying to stay close enough to Beowulf to keep the SLN off and being seen as pressuring Beowulf to leave the League.
Nasty and more likely to require at least Task Force if not Fleet sized commitments when you are already overstreached. Having Haven provide ships helps but this will get difficult if you have to commit to putting forces in places they could cause more harm than good.

Hi Weird Harold,

Thanks for another excellent post!

Your post echoes my old position, from back at the bar to this forum several years ago; they may be obsolete, a tactical or strategic liability requiring some defense, a black hole for limited resources, let the SLN waste their time and effort upgrading them, etc.

OTOH...

First, in terms of resources, destroying these empty obsolete undefended hulks won't require much, since they're probably in a cube formation of roughly 11 X 11 x 10, perhaps a thousand kilometers apart, which puts them all well within the range of of Mk-23E's from beyond the hyper limit, so that just 341 could destroy all ~1210 by attacking on 3 of the 6 different faces, or one could use 121 Mistletoe's or fewer with extra laserheads provided by accompanying modified RD's, besides LAC's or contact nukes etc.

The Mk-23E's or Mistletoe's could be delivered covertly by freighters if need be, though a dramatic response to the KEW attack on Beowulf almost demands a dramatic response from the GA, and a "never again" reaction by the GA is understandable to even enemies.

Secondly, Kingsford has made it plain he considers the BF reserve to be nothing than ~60 billion tons of scrap, and the mandarins have agreed, with nobody else allowed a vote.

At around $5000/ton for warships, that's something like 300 trillion down the drain, granted its was spent over centuries, but still rather maddening, don't you think?

While I like the idea of dismissing the BFR out of hand, it should be obvious to everyone why they aren't being used or upgraded, ie they're obsolete and worthless.

thirdly, regarding the SLN's new ship construction, I doubt any will serve in the SLN if any are ever completed because the SL won't last long enough, especially given the likely concentration on SD's etc over new destroyers or cruisers, for which they haven't a clue of where to start.

Fourth, while its true the BF reserve can't threaten the GA, this is not about them; 2/3 of the SL have only LAC's, with perhaps only around 6-7% of the SL have their own SD's while the protectorates have nothing.

Having a couple thousand star systems in your obvious debt can't hurt GA recruiting.

Leaving the reserve alone means the potential of the BFR being used against someone even decades or centuries from now sometime somewhere by a future warlord controlling just a fragment of the SL still remains, to deter anyone willing to consider joining the GA, so destroying them all is a critical political recruiting tool to gain hundreds if not thousands of supporting star systems.

How does demonstrating that the SLN and BF in particular are so woefully obsolete and incompetent hurt the GA?

Rather, the fact that the SLN or BF won't or can't defend the anchorages reinforces their obvious obsolescence, and the SLN's ineffectual defense or abandonment reiterates it again.

By the way, for future reference, decimate means only one tenth lost or destroyed, not the other way round, though that's the way its usually used.

Please keep the good posts coming,

L

Weird Harold wrote:

lyonheart wrote:FF and OFS have relied on the threat of BF and its gross reserve to enable even one FF ship to intimidate everyone, which is why the GA needs to remove that ace from the SL's hand as soon as possible.

I think we're all waiting for the GA fleets to be unleashed after the EE violation on Beowulf, and eliminating the 7 BF reserve anchorages would be one of my top priorities, along with any local defensive fleets, TF's or TG's, in a fashion so overwhelming, from such far smaller TF's that everyone [the target system and their nearest neighbors] begins to recognize just how outmatched the SL/SLN is; ...

Destroying the "Albatross around the SLN's neck" -- aka the BF Reserve Fleet -- would be a waste of resources and counter-productive. As long as the Reserve exists, there will be pressure to reactivate those ships rather than build the smaller ships Adm Kingsford needs for his commerce raiding strategy.

Also, leaving the Reserve untouched serves to demonstrate how much of a paper tiger the SLN is. Destroying the Reserve would give the SLN an excuse for being out-classed; leaving it untouched exposes the SLN's obsolescence.

But most importantly, the Reserve is no threat the GA because it can't be reactivated before the SLN is decimated and Adm Kingsford has already decided not the waste scarce funding even trying to reactivate even part of the Reserve.

Lyonheart wrote

snip

OTOH...

First, in terms of resources, destroying these empty obsolete undefended hulks won't require much, since they're probably in a cube formation of roughly 11 X 11 x 10, perhaps a thousand kilometers apart, which puts them all well within the range of of Mk-23E's from beyond the hyper limit, so that just 341 could destroy all ~1210 by attacking on 3 of the 6 different faces, or one could use 121 Mistletoe's or fewer with extra laserheads provided by accompanying modified RD's, besides LAC's or contact nukes etc.

The Mk-23E's or Mistletoe's could be delivered covertly by freighters if need be, though a dramatic response to the KEW attack on Beowulf almost demands a dramatic response from the GA, and a "never again" reaction by the GA is understandable to even enemies.

snip

Given the perceived shortage of missiles wouldn't LACs coming in under stealth and destroying the reserve ships with grazers be better.

The CLACs could off-load their broods beyond the hyper limit (which would also certainly be beyond sensor range) then jump to the rendezvous point to pick them up again to refuel & reload for the next one on the list.

I'm sure that the LACs could take care of the picket charged with tending the reserve.

lyonheart wrote:First, in terms of resources, destroying these empty obsolete undefended hulks won't require much, ...

You'll get no argument from me that the GA could eliminate the BFR at their leisure. The question is, 'should they?'

lyonheart wrote:Secondly, Kingsford has made it plain he considers the BF reserve to be nothing than ~60 billion tons of scrap, and the mandarins have agreed, with nobody else allowed a vote.

It isn't the people "with a vote" that make leaving the BFR alone useful to the GA. It will be all of the people who don't get a vote asking embarrassing questions and posting on social media that will turn public opinion against the Mandarins and SLN.

Destroying the BFR would provide a "Remember The Alamo" rallying cry, where leaving it untouched provides a wedge issue for dissidents and secessionists to pick at.

lyonheart wrote:Fourth, while its true the BF reserve can't threaten the GA, this is not about them; 2/3 of the SL have only LAC's, with perhaps only around 6-7% of the SL have their own SD's while the protectorates have nothing.

Having a couple thousand star systems in your obvious debt can't hurt GA recruiting.

This an argument for NOT destroying the BFR. All of those reserve ships are a resource for upgrading the SDFs that lack serious firepower if any secessionists actually want them.

lyonheart wrote:Leaving the reserve alone means the potential of the BFR being used against someone even decades or centuries from now sometime somewhere by a future warlord controlling just a fragment of the SL still remains, to deter anyone willing to consider joining the GA, so destroying them all is a critical political recruiting tool to gain hundreds if not thousands of supporting star systems.

Destroying the fleet of a warlord is a different kettle of fish from blowing up a bunch of mothballed derelicts. It would take a rich, determined, but not too bright warlord to invest the time and fortune necessary to bring even a couple of the reserve fleet to operational condition.

lyonheart wrote:By the way, for future reference, decimate means only one tenth lost or destroyed, not the other way round, though that's the way its usually used.

Yep, I know that and used the word accordingly -- the SLN is toast and it isn't going to take destroying more than a tenth before the League falls apart and the SLN breaks up into regional SDFs or warlord/pirate bands.