GA response to SL attempts to prevent seccessions

Hi all,

I decided to follow up my suggestion for a thread discussing how many GA ships are required or needed to deal with the 2 BF squadrons Kolokoltsov and Kingsford plan on sending out to the 4 members who've already given notice they're also succeeding from the SL.

Presumably if these systems' leadership have the brains God gave geese, they've already physically received GA protection, not just some MAlign promises, having sent off their own db's and freighters to the GA some time ago.

OTOH, some of these might be the first RF systems establishing themselves, but that's another thread.

Kolokoltsov and Kingsford are wrong in thinking the GA can't break up its grand fleet as easily as BF can dispatch TF's.

Two BF squadrons represent 1% of BF's current active strength, implying they could do this at most 50 times before more pressing defense commitments suspended such a tactic, while the GA could easily send far less proportionally to many more.

That is, the GA could send only a couple of SDP's or old SD's, or just a pair of Agamemnon BCP's, although just one of each could easily kill both BF squadrons. At least one CLAC companion would be preferred for missile defense and strike roles, NTM an ammunition ship with escorts assigned to the region to top off the TG's as needed every month or two, besides the necessary capitol ship escorts, but the in system TG could easily be less than 8 warships [around 0.002% of the GA combined fleet, before adding the IAN], even given a pair of the main force capital ships for redundancy's sake.

Given how many FF BC's and CA's are being sent out to Silesia as commerce raiders [even though 200-300 might be only 10-14% of the FF total in those classes, assembling such numbers is far harder than assembling Filaretta's 11th fleet], and how stretched the FF always is, even including BF escorts; there are less than 4 escorts per SL member and/or protectorate system, before including the 15+% refit/repair fraction, which means barely one warship per system, the rest in transit or possibly on convoy duty etc, ie such single or double targets will be easy meat for the GA small TG's sent out to find more Janus victims.

So the FF can probably guarantee to provide only CL's and DD's for screening, any BC's probably being BF as well, so the total escorts might also only total around 16, if that.

16 SLN SD's would apparently require some 2000 Mark 23's [just 200 pods] or their RHN equivalent to ensure enough hits for kills despite the SLN's defenses, so a margin of 40-50% might be needed, including the EW birds.

Some 230 RMN old SD's survived First Manticore, and while OB ended shifting their crews to new construction, there are still probably some manned, and given their 580 tractored pods could easily deal with the expected SLN TF's for this mission.

The Agamemnon BCP now carries 360 pods internally, and could probably tractor another 144 to its hull.

Nike BC's could probably tractor 200+ pods to their hulls, but these are probably more useful elsewhere.

Since older BC's can tractor only 72-78 pods to their hulls [at the SoS rate for CA's] so 4 such RMN BC's should be sufficient.

However this the GA, and joint operations and shared commands are not just necessary but required.

The RHN is rather bigger than the RMN, and given the 1200+ SDP's in service after Haven and her 2-3 daughter colonies finally completed their 400 by last February [from early AAC], besides whatever Bolthole is producing after the initial 800, before getting into how quickly the RHN shifted to pods tractors like the SLN/TIY was able to do so easily.

Besides so many SDP's, I expect LOTS of RHN CLAC's, and at least a pair or two for each TG/TF seems very possible to me, while having several of the RoH's industrialized systems building each class of escort, ie expect thousands.

Thus it wouldn't surprise me that many if not most of these 'succession rescue' TG's were largely RHN and commanded, though I always expect some RMN representation, besides others to show this is indeed a GA.

I'd expect some of these TG's (possibly TF's), to be big enough to provide similar protection to any neighbors who are far more willing to 'stand up' to the SL, when the needed protection is already so near.

Until we know more about the RHN ship classes, due in House of Lies next year if I understand things correctly, I can't propose RHN combinations, except a pair of SDP's and CLAC's, as we can for the RMN.

For example a RMN TG might have a pair of old SD's and a pair of Agamemnon BCP's, besides a pair of CLAC's and old cruisers and DD's for escorts, which could be split to provide protection to another neighbor when its requested, so that system might have just one old SD and a BCP with some 1084 pods between them, before adding the CLAC's and escorts.

So please make your suggestions according to your impressions of the GA etc.

The sooner these BF TG's are dealt with, the sooner the SL will collapse.

Very interesting times indeed.

L

lyonheart wrote:Presumably if these systems' leadership have the brains God gave geese, they've already physically received GA protection, not just some MAlign promises, having sent off their own db's and freighters to the GA some time ago.

I suspect that the GA is going to adopt the same policy for every League Member seceding from the League as they have for Beowulf -- no GA presence in the system until after the system secedes to prevent allegations of intimidation.

I think Scotty's task force in ART would be typical for supporting secessionist systems, assuming enough of the FSVs are available. Otherwise, a slower mix with conventional freighters in the fleet support role.

lyonheart wrote:OTOH, some of these might be the first RF systems establishing themselves, but that's another thread.

I would bet that they are at least systems with substantial SDF forces. That would fit the RF members and they constitute a large percentage of the purported number of systems with substantial SDFs.

In either case, they may well expect that their system defense establishment will be sufficient to withstand SLN expeditionary forces without outside help.

lyonheart wrote:The RHN is rather bigger than the RMN, and given the 1200+ SDP's in service after Haven and her 2-3 daughter colonies finally completed their 400 by last February [from early AAC], besides whatever Bolthole is producing after the initial 800, before getting into how quickly the RHN shifted to pods tractors like the SLN/TIY was able to do so easily.

Besides so many SDP's, I expect LOTS of RHN CLAC's, and at least a pair or two for each TG/TF seems very possible to me, while having several of the RoH's industrialized systems building each class of escort, ie expect thousands.

Thus it wouldn't surprise me that many if not most of these 'succession rescue' TG's were largely RHN and commanded, though I always expect some RMN representation, besides others to show this is indeed a GA.

I'd expect some of these TG's (possibly TF's), to be big enough to provide similar protection to any neighbors who are far more willing to 'stand up' to the SL, when the needed protection is already so near.

Until we know more about the RHN ship classes, due in House of Lies next year if I understand things correctly, I can't propose RHN combinations, except a pair of SDP's and CLAC's, as we can for the RMN.

For example a RMN TG might have a pair of old SD's and a pair of Agamemnon BCP's, besides a pair of CLAC's and old cruisers and DD's for escorts, which could be split to provide protection to another neighbor when its requested, so that system might have just one old SD and a BCP with some 1084 pods between them, before adding the CLAC's and escorts.

I suspect that you're right, that it makes the most sense for Haven to provide the heavy hitters for any small task forces -- they've got far more numerous SD(P)s right now - and their refit and resupply infrastructure isn't being rebuilt like Manticore's is.

I suspect Manticore would have to provide logistical support (partly from all those idled freighters) because Haven has never had the long range deployment focus Manticore had - so they probably don't have the shipping to keep detachemest scattered all over the verge supplied.

But in terms of combat contributions - we've seen no evidence significant improvements in Haven's DDs - BCs (beyond equipping them with bow/stern sidewalls) - so I suspect the biggest bang for the buck Manticore could chip in would be escorts modern enough to carry significant numbers of the extended range Mk31 CMs.

Though if they contemplate splitting the escorts off into detached pickets having escorts capable of internally firing at least LERMs/ERMs or Mk16s would be higher priority - but when screening Havenite SD(P)s the longer CM range seems more important than whatever offensive power they could provide. (So even SDM designs refit to fire Mk31s would be great in the direct escort role).

Remember Manticore's extended range single drive missiles seem to have roughly the same effective range as the League's 2-stage Cataphracts (though obviously the later can add coast time between stages for longer range - but their accuracy seems to suffer beyond 15 million km)

lyonheart wrote:Hi all,

snip 1

OTOH, some of these might be the first RF systems establishing themselves, but that's another thread.

snip 2
The sooner these BF TG's are dealt with, the sooner the SL will collapse.

Very interesting times indeed.

L

Snip1-
I dont think the RF will secede from the League. The entire MAlign plan is one where the barbaric Verge tears apart a decaying Solarian League. The MAlign first chose Haven to be the heavy and then Manticore stole the limelight through sheer competence. The trauma attendant with chaos disrupt the League Core and Shell but not destroy them. Many Shell worlds will see massive disruptions, but for the most part the Core will face a simply severe recession as they build the infrastructure to offset the inputs they lost via any trade disruption.

That suggests to me that the Renaissance Factor will initially target those Core with enough resources to weather this storm relatively smoothly. Can't you see the pitch? Join us in rebuilding this shattered galaxy! The Verge barbarians are a wreck and threaten to spread their chaos into the Core. We must band together and establish order. They can't make that pitch if they seceded from the League. They can't argue that they were uninfected by the chaos, if they indeed were infected enough to secede. Their strongest argument will be how well they weathered the storm battering the entire League, when all others floundered like weekend sailors.

I can see Maya as a MAlign strategy to gather the Verge together for collection later. I can't see the RF targeting the Verge initially as their rebuilding strategy. I can't see the RF seceding, if they truly wish to build their resurgence around former Core league worlds.

Snip-2
As for the BF fleet, they are irrelevant. A Squadron of Sag-Cs accompanied by 1 squadron of Rolands, a CLAC and a fast freighter will put paid to any BF TF the size Crandall took to Spindle. The problem with using cruisers is that they will be needed spread all over the Verge protecting against commerce raiders. Using the Grand Fleet's SDPs, they can send out divisions of them with a CLAC for company to kick the living snot of just about force BF cares to send out. They may not defeat a large enough force, but they can rip huge gaping holes in that order of battle without suffering any loss at all. Once they can reload, they come back and settle the matter more permanently.

All BF can do is keep the peace between Core worlds wishing to remain in the League as the rest of the galaxy falls apart around them. Should they go after Core worlds that want to join Beowulf, they get destroyed. So, BF SDs are irrelevant to the League collapsing. That is happening with the Protectorates wanting out of their serf status. The League as such cannot survive without them. The structure that rises from the League ashes will have to survive on direct taxation of the Core worlds. BF SDs will be important to securing those Core worlds from possible SDFs turning conquistador.

Of course, I think lyonheart means secession as opposed to succession.

Secession is to withdraw.
Succession is to inherit title.

I come close to making the same mistake a lot but catch myself in time, most of the time. Such a confusing couple of words.

PeterZ wrote:I dont think the RF will secede from the League.

IIRC, there is explicit textev that the RF will secede and form its own separate star nation while sweeping up neighboring systems under the guise of providing protection and stability. They really can't accomplish their goals from within a crumbling Solarian League, since their goal is to form a new League organized the way a "proper" League should be -- with MAlign "Star Lines" in (absolute) charge.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I dont think the RF will secede from the League.

IIRC, there is explicit textev that the RF will secede and form its own separate star nation while sweeping up neighboring systems under the guise of providing protection and stability. They really can't accomplish their goals from within a crumbling Solarian League, since their goal is to form a new League organized the way a "proper" League should be -- with MAlign "Star Lines" in (absolute) charge.

When will they secede? My thoughts are that they won't secede along with Beowulf and other first movers. If they do, they get tagged as part of the movement that killed the Solarian League. If they secede later, they may be able to spin it as trying to be like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.

The SEM will be ever tarnished with the League for the same reason. They killed the Solarian League. Nothing they do will change the future history of their actions. For that reason, the RF will want to avoid being tarnished with that particular reputation and stick it out long enough to avoid it.

I think they expect it will collapse like the USSR and Warsaw Pact did.

PeterZ wrote:When will they secede? My thoughts are that they won't secede along with Beowulf and other first movers. If they do, they get tagged as part of the movement that killed the Solarian League. If they secede later, they may be able to spin it as trying to be like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.

Not in the first wave, but probably leading the second wave. I don't think they're particularly worried about being tagged as having killed the League.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:When will they secede? My thoughts are that they won't secede along with Beowulf and other first movers. If they do, they get tagged as part of the movement that killed the Solarian League. If they secede later, they may be able to spin it as trying to be like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.

Not in the first wave, but probably leading the second wave. I don't think they're particularly worried about being tagged as having killed the League.

Agreed. Second wave of secessionists that simply cannot stomach what the League as morphed into after critically wounded them.