Non-solarian, non-manticoran aligned shipping.

Daryl wrote:Any reasonably well off group could club together, outfit a 7M ton freighter with the right gear, take a thousand of their group, go very much elsewhere, and start their own civilization?

Sure could. The first few years would be hard, but you could.

As to conflict, it's a human thing. The conflict between "this in mine", "a lot of work to build this, how about I just take over?", "legitimate defensive needs", and "invasion fleet".

As an example as to how much people are willing to kill or die over seemingly trivial things I give you this great Nordic biker war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Nordic_Biker_War

PeterZ wrote:As I understand Honorverse economies, most systems can produce almost anything from internal resources. Manticore's Unicorn Belt can supply all the raw materials they need to rebuild.

ThisName1 wrote:Dang it, I thought I had something there.

Theemile wrote:In a way you are not incorrect. There is interstellar ore trade in the Honorverse, but it is more based on economics than local availability.

Manticorian merchant ships, returning from Silesian on the Great Triangle route (for anyone counting, another historical age of sail reference) to Balisisk, many times filled their hulls with ore for sale in Manticore. Why? They were able to buy it and transport it for a few pennies lower than it could be extracted locally.

We also have been told of some remote mining ventures which did or didn't work in some remote, uninhabited system. Why were they thought up and why did they fail? Again, some "rarish" resource was available in such a concentration that mining it over there and shipping it was a little easier and cheaper than producing it locally. Once the economics changed slightly, or demand fell, it no longer made sense and the site was abandoned.

I believe DW said that the Manticore system has asteroid resources for 10,000 years at 1921 production levels, and they have plenty of unused moons and minor planets they can move onto when the asteroids give out. I would assume most other systems are in similar places, plus or minus a zero.

The big issue for the Core and Shell worlds is the capital required to produce/extract the needed inputs to their production needs. That production has been established based importing cheaper inputs. Those systems without the capital to invest in local means to provide alternative inputs NEED to continue importing or cease production. Any freighter that can deliver the needed inputs will be able to charge a hefty premium.

Those wealthy systems that can invest capital into alternative supplies of the needed goods will do so. That shift will still dislocate quite a bit of economic activity, but will not be permanently crippling.

The biggest impact will hit the Protectorates and the Verge. They don't have he capital to invest in local infrastructure. Those economies have been crafted to depend on production schedules optimized for the Shell and Core worlds. They will need capital to create their own orbital extraction and industry. Until they have that capital they need finished goods from somewhere. Those transstellars that provided the Verge and Protectorates with finished goods will suffer, unless they can find alternative shipping before their clients find alternative suppliers.

The dislocation described in the story and in these inadequate posts combine to impact between 10%-20% of the Solarian economy. The total amount would likely depend on how quickly reinvestment can take place. That potential disruption is more than sufficient to drive even Honorverse star nations into war. A war to try and control just how much and who suffers the worst of the dislocation.

PeterZ wrote:

PeterZ wrote:As I understand Honorverse economies, most systems can produce almost anything from internal resources. Manticore's Unicorn Belt can supply all the raw materials they need to rebuild.

ThisName1 wrote:Dang it, I thought I had something there.

Theemile wrote:In a way you are not incorrect. There is interstellar ore trade in the Honorverse, but it is more based on economics than local availability.

Manticorian merchant ships, returning from Silesian on the Great Triangle route (for anyone counting, another historical age of sail reference) to Balisisk, many times filled their hulls with ore for sale in Manticore. Why? They were able to buy it and transport it for a few pennies lower than it could be extracted locally.

We also have been told of some remote mining ventures which did or didn't work in some remote, uninhabited system. Why were they thought up and why did they fail? Again, some "rarish" resource was available in such a concentration that mining it over there and shipping it was a little easier and cheaper than producing it locally. Once the economics changed slightly, or demand fell, it no longer made sense and the site was abandoned.

I believe DW said that the Manticore system has asteroid resources for 10,000 years at 1921 production levels, and they have plenty of unused moons and minor planets they can move onto when the asteroids give out. I would assume most other systems are in similar places, plus or minus a zero.

The big issue for the Core and Shell worlds is the capital required to produce/extract the needed inputs to their production needs. That production has been established based importing cheaper inputs. Those systems without the capital to invest in local means to provide alternative inputs NEED to continue importing or cease production. Any freighter that can deliver the needed inputs will be able to charge a hefty premium.

Those wealthy systems that can invest capital into alternative supplies of the needed goods will do so. That shift will still dislocate quite a bit of economic activity, but will not be permanently crippling.

The biggest impact will hit the Protectorates and the Verge. They don't have he capital to invest in local infrastructure. Those economies have been crafted to depend on production schedules optimized for the Shell and Core worlds. They will need capital to create their own orbital extraction and industry. Until they have that capital they need finished goods from somewhere. Those transstellars that provided the Verge and Protectorates with finished goods will suffer, unless they can find alternative shipping before their clients find alternative suppliers.

The dislocation described in the story and in these inadequate posts combine to impact between 10%-20% of the Solarian economy. The total amount would likely depend on how quickly reinvestment can take place. That potential disruption is more than sufficient to drive even Honorverse star nations into war. A war to try and control just how much and who suffers the worst of the dislocation.

That is probably part of the Mesalliance plan. They want chaos. That way they can develop their tech quietly. They can take over worlds slowly and start their genetic work quietly and effectively.

Perhaps they could start a small plague and then note they have a preventative that must be done artificially.

Note that the tech for things like that already exists in Manticore and almost certainly in rich worlds. I feel sure the Mesalliance would be "delighted" to provide their services for a reasonable fee. Of course, after a while it will be noted they take care of a lot of issues and win recruits.

ldwechsler wrote:That is probably part of the Mesalliance plan. They want chaos. That way they can develop their tech quietly. They can take over worlds slowly and start their genetic work quietly and effectively.

Perhaps they could start a small plague and then note they have a preventative that must be done artificially.

Note that the tech for things like that already exists in Manticore and almost certainly in rich worlds. I feel sure the Mesalliance would be "delighted" to provide their services for a reasonable fee. Of course, after a while it will be noted they take care of a lot of issues and win recruits.

You are so correct. The Malign can find economically strong, but vulnerably positioned (militarily, economically and locationally) planets, and Their Diplomats will whisper from the side "Don't worry, we have that - we can help you. By the way, we need your {whatever}, and will compensate you handsomely for it. We can help protect you and your economy. Join us! We can whether these dark times safely together."

And then instead of 12 aligned core worlds and their colonies, you have 50-100 Core and Shell worlds being led around in a secret agenda.

Why would the Core worlds be especially subject to the chaos that will hit the League? They have the capital to recover and then insulate themselves by making their system independent of imports. Sure, they will band together for self defense. The Renaisance Factor will attempt to combine those systems which recover first into a new Solarian League...a Reborn Solarian League.

It is the Shell, Protectorates and the Verge that will go through chaos. They don't have the capital to insulate their economies from imports. The upcoming chaos force them to build up their economies on their own. The Shell nations will be able to do it, but it will take longer with much more dislocation. It's here that the RF will find nations desperate enough to do anything to avoid the crap.

When next the story arc resumes, there will be several rump states formed around a core of Core worlds. The Malign and RF will work to consolidate enough rump states into a powerful enough collection to conquer the remaining worlds. The SEM and some number of Core world partners will have a larger number of Verge and Protectorates than the RF/MAlign have projected. Between the Grand Alliance, Manticoran Alliance and especially Maya's help, there will be a significant portion of the Verge allied with the good guys.

Will there be enough systems with the Allies? Will all the Allies be true? On that note, I posit that Baregos' Admiral Roszak is an Alpha line. Baregos himself might be as well. If this ends up being true, how will the geopolitical balance of power drive the story? Lots of fun ahead!