Non-solarian, non-manticoran aligned shipping.

Nyssa wrote:Peter, As I understood the original post, it was not about manti shippers. It was about ships like the 'Halie Soule'. The only shippers with access to rapid (weeks) information exchange are the manties and their allies. Everybody else is looking at months to many months for information to flow. You can not stop at a planet and pick up current trade info left by other ships in your conglomerate, there are no other ships. You have to learn everything yourself. And please don't tell me the Hail Soule' isn't a tramp any longer, it was and I couldn't think of any others.

Not necessarily. Non-aligned shipping will be using the worm-holes. Only those that are actively aligned with the League will be prohibited from using the junctions controlled by the RMN. They will have access to information flow through the junction network. The RMN won't prevent those unaligned ships from trading wherever they want and using the junctions. Manty merchant captains will sell what information they canto defray their lost revenues.

Nyssa wrote:Peter, As I understood the original post, it was not about manti shippers. It was about ships like the 'Halie Soule'. The only shippers with access to rapid (weeks) information exchange are the manties and their allies.

It wasn't about just tramp freighters, although those are going to have a few windfall profits, it is about places like Matapan, Asgerd, Midgard, Phoenix, Maya, Madras, and other multi-system polities surrounding the League that presumably have some internal "merchant marine" that has dealt within the League or can quickly move into the fringes of the league to pick up the trade the RMMM abandoned.

Basically any ship that isn't registered in the Solarian League is going to be besieged by contract offers at premium rates as soon as they make orbit around any League planet. Rates good enough to make risking the SLN commandeering their ship -- which might well be profitable, anyway. (The SLN assets that would be "commandeering" ships without paying the crews would be out in the Verge looking for GA flagged ships to confiscate; crews would be secondary considerations.)

Battle Fleet arrogance might interfere with internal League trade by commandeering ships and stranding their cargoes, but that is just going to incline more league members to secede. Adm Kingsford seem to be a bit smarter than that, and the Mandarins would probably object to further disruption of the that funds the League through fees and such (since they can't resort to direct taxation of member states.)

There are also probably quite a few indistinct and nondescript platforms that can be commandeered for duty that travel between the great number of Solarian planets. Garbage Scow platforms, Archaic Fossil Fuels Platforms etc., etc., etc., that may be able to be converted because they are built on freighter platforms anyways.

The SLN may be highly divested into shortstopping and commandeering at the moment.

robert132 wrote:In the case of old style "blockades" a warship could stop any merchant, even a neutral, suspected of trading with the warring nation's enemies and inspect the manifest and cargo looking for bills indicating cargo origin and destination.

If the cargo was proscribed the whole shebang, ship AND cargo could be seized and taken as a prize or at least sent into port for an Admiralty Court to make a determination.

This was in the "civilized" days of warfare (Age of Sail through WWI) before unrestricted submarine warfare and indiscriminate mining was used to block the sea trade killing warring nations citizens and neutrals alike.

LaCoon in all forms so far appears to be spun off from that history.

Will the RMN restrict non-aligned freighters from carrying all League cargo? One suspects that certain League member nations are more likely to have their cargo allowed through the WHJ on non-aligned merchant ships than others. Wanna bet that by contacting Beowulf, a League star nation can get on a list of exceptional nations?

"Yeah, we know leaving the League takes time. Here's a waiver to get your cargo through while you deal with the secession plebiscite. You'll have to use the these firms out of Matapan or Asgerd."

cthia wrote:There are also probably quite a few indistinct and nondescript platforms that can be commandeered for duty that travel between the great number of Solarian planets. Garbage Scow platforms, Archaic Fossil Fuels Platforms etc., etc., etc., that may be able to be converted because they are built on freighter platforms anyways.

The SLN may be highly divested into shortstopping and commandeering at the moment.

It will not be easy. A lot of places that have shipping like that do not have a lot of Solarian warships, etc.

Keep in mind that if there is a small detachment of Sollies, they are less likely to try much in the age of rebellions.

As PeterZ notes, it might not be difficult to arrange things and get on an approved list. The closed off wormholes might also serve to protect a lot of shipping since the League's navy won't get there quickly.

On the other hand, the Manties can be very generous. After all, it's nice to have friends while your enemies are tripping over their own feet.

Perhaps they might allow a few of these non-aligned ships to join convoys. Eventually, as the League collapses, they'll know where their goods can be shipped.

PeterZ wrote:Why would a shipper obligate himself to long term contracts in these conditions? His contracted carrier can be hijacked or captured and leave him obligated to allow the ship owner to find alternative ships. He can find another carrier only after he gives his original carrier time. A carrier can find someone in more desperate straits than the shipper that he has a long term contract with. At which point he is losing money because he cannot take advantage of the opportunity. Odds are that the conditions support very flexible contract terms for both parties. Initially, the carriers will want the flexibility to provide services to the highest bidder. Later as more carriers enter the market, shippers will want the flexibility to secure the lowest carrier. Both parties will want flexible terms at different times.

Flexible terms means a shipper can get out of any long term contract easily enough if the new terms are attractive enough. Given the amount of security the RMN can provide their merchant marine in a few short years, it might even be advantageous to pay the penalty to break a contract with a less well protected shipper.

Long terms contracts might mean more dependable revenue, but it also means dependably less revenue for the same amount of risk of being captured/hijacked.

Because there are no alternative shippers. All the existing shippers who are not contractually bound are going to be shipping the highest value cargoes, because those are the ones that manufacturer or customer are offering the most money to the shipper. They are also the ones that it is easiest to find information on because those are the ones that the cargo brokers make the most money on.

So if you are not shipping particularly high value cargo you need to either to be able to outbid Technodyne's bid to ship a load of missiles (which is doubtful given the per ton value of missiles and the sudden uptick in demand for weapons), accept that you are just not going to ship product to interstellar customers or figure out how to build the shipping capability you need. Eventually capacity will return if you wait, but eventually you'll be dead too.

And given that the RMMM ran out of on all their contracts and stole their customers shipments they are starting from something of a hole in reestablishing relationships.

Yeah, Manties are screwed in the League Core and She'll worlds for quite some time. Non-GA flagged ships that can use the hyper bridges are another story. They won't carry weapons but may carry other cargo. The shippers can't be too hostile to the SEM or the cargo will be prohibited. Your earlier premise goes in spades for those unaligned nations. The prospect of getting a return on new merchantmen construction is quite good both to finance and to run.

One suspects Honor's first CO on her middy cruise is tempted to change the registration of some of his ships to take advantage of those opportunities. I wonder if Honor is tempted to partner with him and begin her own shipping cartel?

Upon rereading A Rising Thunder, I conclude that between 20%-35% of the aggregate Gross Product of the Solarian League depends on interstellar trade. More than 50% of that requirement came from the RMMM. All other carriers contributed to that remaining 50%. Assuming that non-Solarian focused shipping is much smaller that shipping servicing Solarian requirements, then the RMMM can replace it. The RMMM can also likely replace the shipping serving the Verge around associated with the WHJ they control as well as serve the needs of the Republic of Haven. Any excess shipping to those requirements can serve the Protectorates.

That means that EVERY other non-Allied carrier is free to serve the League. If those carriers are given some sort of exemption from the no League cargo prohibition, they are free to print money! Seriously. The League is in line to lose between 10%-17% of their total product. Those firms at risk WILL pay a massive premium NOT to be one of the firms that goes belly up.

If you are shipping grain or iron ore you are going to be toast. It simply won't be cost efficient unless you deliver it. For example, the Us produces 360 million tons of corn, which means you need something like 60 loads to ship it.

A metric ton of corn is worth $147. How much is a metric ton of machine tools worth? Who will pay more for delivery?

However if you assume $20 per ton shipping each year you'll spend 720 million on shipping. Based on Honor amount enemies, you can buy a decent sized merchant for a couple hundred million more.

So for the cost of a years shipping you can get a ship. Which reduces your cost to ship a lot and can be financed. Of course, to make 60 runs a year you'll need multiple ships, likely 5 or so, but you can finance them and insure them.

Not sure just how rich, Stephen Westman is, but I suspect that he is going to get much richer real soon. Möbius has a variety of mutton that is as appreciated as Montanan beef. The system simply doesn't have as much reach and name recognition as Montana has. Sir Aivars will have had an opportunity to sample that mutton, if he spends any time on planet with Mr. Breitbart. I doubt he'll not comment on the quality of that viande. Using the cache his name will bring in connection with Sir Aivars and Westman's role with Mr. Ankendrandt, Westman can partner with just about any Möbius sheep herder who can deliver quality product to interstellar markets.

Möbius is 193 LY from Montana and is about 60 to 70 LY from Meyers if memory serves me well. Odds are that a fast merchie from Möbius carrying perishables will be heavily incented to stop at Montana on its way to the Lynx terminus. One wonders if Włocławek might not also participate in exporting their goods as part of this cycle? They own another hyper bridge terminus after all. That combination of beef, prarie hens, mutton and seafood might be a worthwhile collection of products for a fast freighter to carry. If he doesn't have the wherewithal to buy a top of the line freighter, the Terekovs certainly do. Well perhaps the O'Daleys, if Sinead can't come up with the funds on her own. I strongly doubt that Mr. Westman wouldn't invite the commodore into this venture. I strongly doubt Sinaed would decline the invitation, if extended.

When all is said and done, Westman will find a way to leverage his system's reputation into diversifying revenue stream. Leveraging his Montanan beef's reputation to market another premium viande as well as other exotic seafoods seems like a slam dunk business decision. Furthermore, using his name in addition to that of his friends to help said friends is pure icing on the cake.