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Oh, what the heck . . .

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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Theemile   » Sun Jul 09, 2017 4:37 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Now that is an interesting distinction. Let's consider allowing the lead role for the MA to fall on a rotating basis to key members of the Alliance other than Manticore. Nations like the Protectorship of Grayson could front an economic alliance while the GA focuses on a military alliance. All the while the Talbot Quadrant and Selisia can speak to SEM membership.

I have to say this period of transition is turning out to be remarkable similar to real world transition out of the post WWII world order we are witnessing now. It's all the more reason David should find authors to contribute their ideas to the transition in the Honorverse.

kenl511 wrote:I believe the Manticore Alliance (MA) is still there in addition to the Grand Alliance (GA). The MA is an economic, diplomatic and military alliance which has several other functions beside war with Haven. RFC has not said otherwise.

It allows the GA to demonstrate to the Protectorates, Shell and Verge they are better at promotion of commerce, economic development and mutual security than the Solarian League (SL) which is another weapon against the SL. These being the core purposes of the SL.


Just my opinion,
Ken L


Comparing HoS details and earlier textev, we see that Manticore diverted 1/2 or more of it's light construction to it's Allies in the years leading up to the first war and through the first war, in addition to manpower to help man those ships. You also have Manticorian investment in shipyards in Allizon, Zanzibar, Talbot, and Marsh. You also have the investment of Manticore in the Idaho/ Zunker wormhole, and Manticore's protection of both Star Nation's rights.

It all paints Manticore in a good light where it's partners go.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:48 pm

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Hi TheEmile,

Very good post, of course. ;)

Manticore SOP is going to contrast rather strongly with the SL's policies of preferment for the core systems; I suspect the general verge attitude toward the SEM will be "what's not to like", but fall rather short of seeking membership though association akin to that of the 'Trucial States' would probably be the preferred approach by both parties.

There could very well be a long initial period where neighbors prefer the SEM simply because the SL hasn't let them get to know their neighbors [granted there may good reason for that sometimes], but after a decade or two of familiarization, local associations might easily develop.

The speed at which the GA can restore normal security and trade tempo, in effect replacing the FF protection will also be rather telling on everyone used to the old status quo.

All the newsie db's will become part of the wave of change [some in spite of themselves] as the flood of revolts and overthrows overwhelms all the SL/OFS flunky regimes.

Or at least that's the way it will appear to many or most, because I expect the RMN has a Laocoon stage 2A or 3, that RMN db's pretend to be various newsies to spread the SEM message. Of course, propaganda is never more effective than when its true.

L


Theemile wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's good to read your posts again.

Definitely agree.

The TQ is going to cause enough problems for the SEM, that Elizabeth or anyone else in the government, isn't going to be looking for any more headaches; especially while the verge feels very grateful now [or very soon], gratitude soon leads to resentment, and given what prolong has been doing to old human rituals like marriage, I wouldn't count on gratitude beating out love as the basis for a successful long term relationship.

Besides, what's in it for the SEM?

Mutual benefits and advantages are the keys to good treaties and alliances, but what can most verge members offer the SEM?

Wormhole associated systems, who do have something to offer, might prefer treaties to membership in the SEM, or joint membership in an assembly or an equal corporate partnership for managing wormhole bridge problems, if they require outside help or adjudication.

"Permanent interests, no permanent allies" I believe was the long term policy of the British empire in its heyday, and still very pertinent advice in the honorverse more than 2000 years later.

Looking forward to more great posts,

L


Manticore already has what David referred to as a "Trucial States" arrangement with the planets near the Matapan terminus. I could see newly freed systems seeking a similar arrangement with the SEM, giving them access to the MMM, Manticore and allied economies and financial opportunities, and frequent stops by RMN forces which just happen to be in the area.

Such an arrangement gives them autonomy, access to universal economic and investment partnerships, moves them into the Manticore sphere of influence on their terms, and moves them under the RMN's umbrella.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:14 pm

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Hi PeterZ,

Excellent points, of course. ;)

I expect that wormhole systems may form the core of a local 'Trucial States' confederation, assembly, or simply 'gang' of systems that are encouraged by the GA and SEM.

The RoH and the Andermanni will up the bidding, NTM Beowulf and even Grayson, if they feel the SEM is getting too much of the lion's share of business from the verge and shells.

Given their much greater populations, they are far more likely to have more of the specialists the verge systems are going to need to build up their infrastructure, societal improvements, and system wealth than the Manties, who will be rather finely stretched just dealing with the TQ.

The SEM will be fine with this, as their wise foreign policy SOP might be restated as "the more, the merrier", because all the rest reduce the burden of their investment.

Given its been a while since we had a new anthology [or two] this historic period could easily fill a couple, with a whole range of views or perspectives on the critical post SL human interstellar society.

Keep the good posts coming,

L


PeterZ wrote:quote="n7axw"
I just reread that book. Your question is a good one. My sense is that by in large those folk are grateful to be rid of OFS and the transstellars and Manticore's role in bringing that about, what they are really into right now is the heady experience of managing their own affairs. While Manticore is obviously not OFS, it would be understandable if thy would keep outsiders at a distance for a while.

Don-/quote

In many ways, Don, having many independent states is best for the SEM. The primary benefit of Talbot and the Verge worlds for the Empire is a place to invest their WHJ fees. Many independent worlds have far less efeciencies than worlds in a union. There will be far greater need for investment in those independent worlds. Each world will need a navy, orbital infrastructure, medical infrastructure, improved education and planetary infrastructure. Those needs will soak up loads of transit fees.

I would think that even if they do not join the Empire, the Empire will insist on a common set of laws governing investments. Nothing underhanded, but fair and equitable protections for both parties. If you want Manty investment, adopt these laws.

There will be single systems that will want to join the Quadrant and perhaps enough to warrant consideration as a separate sector. As much as they want to remain independent, chaos is about to visit the galaxy. The League is still around and getting desperate. That suggests joining something larger is a good idea. Not sure that the Empire will want them, unless as Lyonheart suggests they have a terminus. IIRC, there is a termini associated with one of the systems under discussion. That system would be wise to join the Empire and its neighbors would be wise to tag along.

Given all these possibilities, I sure hope David opens the period between story arcs to other authors. I really want to read about this and he will be busy on so many other projects.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:35 pm

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Hi Kenl511,

Quite right.

Having a range of diplomatic economic and military options will be very useful since so many systems are going to be unique.

Personalizing whatever treaties is going to accent the special relationship each such member has with the SEM.

Being wisely led, the SEM isn't going to exclude the RoH, the AE, or Beowulf and Grayson, for many obvious reasons, and in many cases be quite willing for one of the others to take the lead in becoming the major trading pardner.

After all, there's going to be more than plenty of new trading pardners for all of them; ie 600+ protectorates, plus up to 1500 shell systems with 2+ billion populations each.

None of the GA, including the AE, even combined, has the merchant marine to handle the business that's going to flow their way within a few to six monthes as the SL collapses so astonishingly quickly.

They'll windup building freighters even faster than they built warships, and complain about how they should have 'converted' sooner. :)

Certainly interesting times,

L


kenl511 wrote:I believe the Manticore Alliance (MA) is still there in addition to the Grand Alliance (GA). The MA is an economic, diplomatic and military alliance which has several other functions beside war with Haven. RFC has not said otherwise.

It allows the GA to demonstrate to the Protectorates, Shell and Verge they are better at promotion of commerce, economic development and mutual security than the Solarian League (SL) which is another weapon against the SL. These being the core purposes of the SL.


Just my opinion,
Ken L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:06 am

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Hi PeterZ,

"Very interesting" ;)

Because Manticore got news more quickly than anywhere else, it quickly became the de facto financial and trade capital of interstellar humanity {IH? we have to call it something], regardless of what the SL or 'Old Chicago' thought.

Closing the wormholes certainly didn't change that.

Which is just another reason why the business and financial institutions aren't going to risk forfeiting their Manticoran positions just because some ignorant SL idiots want to confiscate the local system Manticoran investments; imagine being proscribed from doing any business in Manticore, and specifically the WHJ, for five maybe ten years, let alone the SEM as a whole, or having it known you've been proscribed; what business would risk that?

I think some stories [articles or fiction] on the business and or financial aspects of the WHJ in the past through the present would also be interesting.

Because these are fascinating times, are they not?

L


PeterZ wrote:Now that is an interesting distinction. Let's consider allowing the lead role for the MA to fall on a rotating basis to key members of the Alliance other than Manticore. Nations like the Protectorship of Grayson could front an economic alliance while the GA focuses on a military alliance. All the while the Talbot Quadrant and Selisia can speak to SEM membership.

I have to say this period of transition is turning out to be remarkable similar to real world transition out of the post WWII world order we are witnessing now. It's all the more reason David should find authors to contribute their ideas to the transition in the Honorverse.

kenl511 wrote:I believe the Manticore Alliance (MA) is still there in addition to the Grand Alliance (GA). The MA is an economic, diplomatic and military alliance which has several other functions beside war with Haven. RFC has not said otherwise.

It allows the GA to demonstrate to the Protectorates, Shell and Verge they are better at promotion of commerce, economic development and mutual security than the Solarian League (SL) which is another weapon against the SL. These being the core purposes of the SL.


Just my opinion,
Ken L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:24 am

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The Andermani will begin, but the Havenites will succeed best I suspect. At what, you ask?

Let me pose a question first. Were there enough hulls to carry the Leagues freight before it all went tits up? Of course there were. The SEM still have their merchant hulls. The RMN haven't destroyed any League merchies, so they are still around.

As soon as the GA begin their deep strikes against the League, the IAN and RN will have the additional manpower to take captured merchies. They'll take and auction them off to private shippers. The RMN will hit and destroy SLN BF and FF bases. The rest of the GA hits key trans shipping centers and takes the merchant hulls that drive revenue for the League central government. Absent merchant ships to import and export goods, more star nations will see little use for a useless central government.

In short order both the Andermani and Republic of Haven will have respectable merchant fleets to service the Verge and Protectorates. Combined with the RMMM and there should be a significant number of bottoms servicing that region in short order.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Kenl511,

Quite right.

Having a range of diplomatic economic and military options will be very useful since so many systems are going to be unique.

Personalizing whatever treaties is going to accent the special relationship each such member has with the SEM.

Being wisely led, the SEM isn't going to exclude the RoH, the AE, or Beowulf and Grayson, for many obvious reasons, and in many cases be quite willing for one of the others to take the lead in becoming the major trading pardner.

After all, there's going to be more than plenty of new trading pardners for all of them; ie 600+ protectorates, plus up to 1500 shell systems with 2+ billion populations each.

None of the GA, including the AE, even combined, has the merchant marine to handle the business that's going to flow their way within a few to six monthes as the SL collapses so astonishingly quickly.

They'll windup building freighters even faster than they built warships, and complain about how they should have 'converted' sooner. :)

Certainly interesting times,

L


kenl511 wrote:I believe the Manticore Alliance (MA) is still there in addition to the Grand Alliance (GA). The MA is an economic, diplomatic and military alliance which has several other functions beside war with Haven. RFC has not said otherwise.

It allows the GA to demonstrate to the Protectorates, Shell and Verge they are better at promotion of commerce, economic development and mutual security than the Solarian League (SL) which is another weapon against the SL. These being the core purposes of the SL.


Just my opinion,
Ken L
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by kzt   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:28 am

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lyonheart wrote:Because Manticore got news more quickly than anywhere else, it quickly became the de facto financial and trade capital of interstellar humanity {IH? we have to call it something], regardless of what the SL or 'Old Chicago' thought.

Closing the wormholes certainly didn't change that.

Have you tried to get a bank to transfer money to Sudan or Iran recently? It's odd how you can make a phone call there but somehow financial transactions don't seem to make it. It's like there is something else going on.

I also understand it was pretty hard to buy and sell Messerschmitt AG stock in the US in 1943 for some reason. Apparently something about the Trading with the Enemy Act, but I'm sure that just because the SEM formally declared war on the SL that they haven't actually put any similar sort of restrictions on their citizens and corporations. After all they are all paragons of virtue and would always act solely with the best interests of the SEM and not their own personal gain in mind.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:10 am

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Howdy TheEmile,

Excellent points indeed!

While I'd like to see more of your data and reasoning regarding the SKM's fraction of below the wall construction dedicated to its allies before and during the first war, that pragmatic generosity certainly didn't hurt the SKM's interstellar reputation.

The vast increase in trade looming from breaking the SL's shackles and restrictive chains on trade is certainly going to require a vast increase in verge freighter construction as you suggest, which will undercut whatever the SL core systems manage to build since March [darn few in my opinion], leaving them essentially in the same very deep hole as before Laocoon.

Of course some core systems will buy as many cheap freighters as they can from any of those new verge system yards willing to sell, which will keep the verge busy, profitable, NTM happy; while also being a barometer or measure of the core worlds' resolve not to be so vulnerable again.

Given the brevity of the blockade, for most if not all, I suspect most transtellars will fall back into mainly leasing MMM freighters, while some will publicly prefer RoH or AE MM, or MMM using a false flag or 'fake' transtellar cover.

Given the industrial capacity of the Maya sector and Erewhon [recorded as critical to the allied victory over the MAlign in the future history in ToF], they too could provide a useful cover for leasing MMM ships, besides building far more of their own.

Freighter construction might thus become rather cutthroat in a few years, if diversification including going upscale [passenger liners, NTM the streak engine availability etc], depending on what market saturation means in interstellar terms; ie how big and how far apart are the yards.

I suspect the TQ is already well into its shipyard building phase for all the systems that didn't have one, in somewhat the same way Yugoslavia had complete separate economies in the various republics etc, which will give them a timely business advantage over the verge and shells, but we don't know what or how long their lead is in time or volume production.

Most verge systems are going to be quite happy and busy reinvesting the OFS fees and taxes [in all but name] of 20-35% back into their system economy, after confiscating the transtellar's assets, so honest fair investment from the GA/MA may come as a shock to some.

PeterZ's suggestions regarding trade offered only to those systems passing fair NTM wise laws is an excellent basis for a new interstellar trade union, and having it named after Grayson, Erewhon or Maya, if not Kumang or Wroclawek [given how clever their new leaders are], would probably make it more palatable to the core systems or what remains of the SL, rather than being named after Manticore, Haven or even possibly Beowulf.

Again plenty of room for all sorts of very interesting stories for a couple of anthologies. :D

L


Theemile wrote:quote="PeterZ"Now that is an interesting distinction. Let's consider allowing the lead role for the MA to fall on a rotating basis to key members of the Alliance other than Manticore. Nations like the Protectorship of Grayson could front an economic alliance while the GA focuses on a military alliance. All the while the Talbot Quadrant and Selisia can speak to SEM membership.

I have to say this period of transition is turning out to be remarkable similar to real world transition out of the post WWII world order we are witnessing now. It's all the more reason David should find authors to contribute their ideas to the transition in the Honorverse.

kenl511 wrote:I believe the Manticore Alliance (MA) is still there in addition to the Grand Alliance (GA). The MA is an economic, diplomatic and military alliance which has several other functions beside war with Haven. RFC has not said otherwise.

It allows the GA to demonstrate to the Protectorates, Shell and Verge they are better at promotion of commerce, economic development and mutual security than the Solarian League (SL) which is another weapon against the SL. These being the core purposes of the SL.


Just my opinion,
Ken L
/quote

Comparing HoS details and earlier textev, we see that Manticore diverted 1/2 or more of it's light construction to it's Allies in the years leading up to the first war and through the first war, in addition to manpower to help man those ships. You also have Manticorian investment in shipyards in Allizon, Zanzibar, Talbot, and Marsh. You also have the investment of Manticore in the Idaho/ Zunker wormhole, and Manticore's protection of both Star Nation's rights.

It all paints Manticore in a good light where it's partners go.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Theemile   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:13 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Howdy TheEmile,

Excellent points indeed!

While I'd like to see more of your data and reasoning regarding the SKM's fraction of below the wall construction dedicated to its allies before and during the first war, that pragmatic generosity certainly didn't hurt the SKM's interstellar reputation.
Last edited by Theemile on Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Theemile   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:23 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Howdy TheEmile,

Excellent points indeed!

While I'd like to see more of your data and reasoning regarding the SKM's fraction of below the wall construction dedicated to its allies before and during the first war, that pragmatic generosity certainly didn't hurt the SKM's interstellar reputation.


Starting with HOS, we see that Manticore sold 24 new build ships to Grayson, in addition to the large number of retired RMN ships. The new builds are not counted in the RMN fleet numbers in the book- the RMN fleet numbers only consist of ships added to the RMN, not just ships built in Manticore yards. All of them were manned with the assistance of the RMN.

All these new builds, and all the refurbished ships pulled out of the reserve and modernized in Manticorian yards, were all delivered between 1902 and 1906. Just as the 1st war was starting and heating up.

We also found out that Erewhon purchased all it's light and medium units from Manticore, and their navy was as modern as Manticore's. We don't really know how big the Erewhonese navy is, but we could assume a navy with 3+ squadrons of the wall probably has at least 80-120 light units.

Then we have Alizon and Zanzibar. Both navies were built by Manticore and Manticore provided replacements when their navies were destroyed... Zanzibar twice. Both used RMN Manning. Oh, and Manticore built them shipyards so they could build their own ships... Them replaced them when they were destroyed.

Sidemore, post freedom got a fleet base which built their domestic fleet with RMN designs. Just a dozen or so light units, but all modern RMN ships.

Then we have the recent example of Iowa, who around the time the war began discovered they had a wormhole and asked Manticore to help them exploit it. Since they have built their Navy from Manticore.

Then we have the other 20ish members of the Manticore Alliance. Only Talbot had their own shipbuilding capability, but all had their own small navies. King Roger built the MA originally before his death, so by the time the 1st war began, over 50 years passed since the MAs founding with the clear intention to stand against the coming storm named Haven. Since all parties joined knowing what was coming, it stands to reason they upped their military spending to prevent it. Which means more, newer naval units. And until Grayson's yards hit their stride around 1908, the MA only had two ship sources, Manticore and the smaller yards at Talbot. In that 70 years, every light unit should have been life cycled at least once.

Potentially, that is alot of ships which came out of Manticore's yards.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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