Oh, what the heck . . .

kzt wrote:

SCC wrote:
2) Systems don't require multiple SD's to secure them, a carriers worth of LAC's, or a couple of Avalon-class light cruisers or Wolfhound-class destroyers, the Avalon's at least don't even use DDM's.

So, tell me about how Grendelsbane was over defended.

that was pre apollo and pre mycroft.

still i would expect a major planet to have at least a division of Nikes as well a number of smaller combatants for mobile defence.

post fall of the solarian league i think at least a sqaudron or 2 of the wall plus lacs and smaller screen is going to be the minimum for any somewhat prosperous system is going to need. and the SEM while it will have the reputation as the best in the galaxy will need to make sure every member system is fully covered as there will be lots of pirates and privateers and such that flee from the sln. plus a "home fleet" with a core of clacs and sd(p)s will become a status symbol for each system

Oyster Bay left Manticore in a situation developing somewhat akin to Great Britain by the end of WW II. They have to PAY for all that stuff they are getting from allied forces plus food and fuel AND their trade has gone to hell as the merchant fleet isn't truly operating at anything near pre or even early war levels.
Be clear about the comparison, Manticore was at war but it was also both selling manufactured goods all over the Solarian League and beyond. It was also providing in excess of 50% of the ships that carried those goods. That, coupled with the MWHJ put both a lot money in the hands of the government and it supported the level of manufacturing that allowed Manticore to build those ships to fight the was with Haven.
Grayson...well, they were producing essentialy war materials for Manticore but they were also expanding their economy and you might presume that they were also expanding their merchant shipping and exports.

Manticore has to PAY for all that stuff being produced (probably under license and various contract deals) at Beowulf and at Bolthole. Yes, what they get from the Aldermani as well. To do that, they PROBABLY have to- in addition to selling more government debt- are selling off stock and other holdings (commercial paper and hard assets) from businesses in the League (both the SL debt obligations and corporate investments as well a various System or Planitary debt obligations).
Where is the breaking point and will Manticore (and Grayson) be able to recover both enough and in enough time to begin exporting consumer/commercial products AND get their merchant marine back carrying goods at a profit.
That is the problem.

We don't know the point of rebuilding of the orbital manufacturing for either Manticore or Grayson. We don't know how much of the merchant fleet has anything to carry or if the level of competition from all the ships that were called home has bankrupted too many of the ships/shipping companies even if they were able to work at cut-throat prices. Not exactly minor economic issues.

Brigade XO wrote:Not exactly minor economic issues.

It's not something David cares about. He wanted some sort of little setback for Manticore and instead he did something that would have destroyed their economy and crippled the RMN.

"I'll believe it's a crisis when the people who tell me it's a crisis act like it's a crisis."

And so far nobody in the RMN is acting like it's a crisis. They don't worry any more about node wear than they ever did, and NOBODY can make replacement nodes for modern RMN ships. They don't worry about the use of irreplaceable recon drones. It turns out that despite their stated "missile shortage" they had something like 5 million M23 missiles on hand. (Which means they are produced at faster than one missile per minute for the last 7 years) They don't worry about spare parts. They are not even changing their typical ship operations to protect against graser torpedo attacks, which would involve never shutting down the wedge and accepting the node wear.

So no, it's just going to be hand waved away.

Lunan wrote:post fall of the solarian league i think at least a sqaudron or 2 of the wall plus lacs and smaller screen is going to be the minimum for any somewhat prosperous system is going to need. and the SEM while it will have the reputation as the best in the galaxy will need to make sure every member system is fully covered as there will be lots of pirates and privateers and such that flee from the sln. plus a "home fleet" with a core of clacs and sd(p)s will become a status symbol for each system

Until somebody just realized that with faster-than light tactical communications they don't need manned warships anymore. The control ship, lurking over the hyperlimit and controlling the function of armadas of cheap, disposable unmanned missile carriers - thats basically the navy of Honorverse future. Unless the missile defense would advanced - in that case, there would be hordes of unmanned battleships with heavy beam weaponry, torpedoes and thing-that-must-not-be-mentioned onboard.

Dilandu wrote:Until somebody just realized that with faster-than light tactical communications they don't need manned warships anymore. The control ship, lurking over the hyperlimit and controlling the function of armadas of cheap, disposable unmanned missile carriers - thats basically the navy of Honorverse future. Unless the missile defense would advanced - in that case, there would be hordes of unmanned battleships with heavy beam weaponry, torpedoes and thing-that-must-not-be-mentioned onboard.

So, the other side will send in one-person fighters, one of which will be piloted by a 9-yr old boy... right?

Having a single control ship is an instant point-source failure. You need at least three, preferably more, and they need to be able to defend themselves once located, so that means heavy armor and weapons... just like an SD(P) in fact...

Michael Everett wrote:
Having a single control ship is an instant point-source failure. You need at least three, preferably more, and they need to be able to defend themselves once located, so that means heavy armor and weapons... just like an SD(P) in fact...

I never mentioned that it should be single control ship. Of course, the control must be dubbed. But the point is, unless the means to disrupt FTL communications emerges (and it was already stated, that this is unlikely in near future), there would be little point to have manned battleships. Cruisers and other patrol ships - yes, they need to be manned because they need to make decisions more complex than average Honorverse AI could handle, and they are often forced to work alone, so they couldnt be remote controlled. But ships of the wall? There is no need for them to be manned. Moreover, unmanned they would have such acceleration advantages and structural and mass superiority, that manned ships would stand exactly zero chances against them.

What was destroyed was Manticore's three, large orbital industrial centers and a huge percentage of their workforce for those orbital centers. Most of their ships still remain. Rebuilding the orbital factories will take far less time than training a new workforce. If they are lucky there will be some workers that have similar if outdated skills that can be retrained. If not, they start all over again and train from scratch with instructors (both from Manticore and Beowulf) theory becoming a hands on training cadre. It'll take time to get Manticoran industry back up to SL levels of productivity, let alone their own pre-Oyster Bay levels.

Grayson has it tougher in some ways and easier in others. They don't have a massive merchant fleet. They also don't have as much capital to redirect to rebuilding projects. It will take them longer to rebuild their orbital ship yards. That does mean they are not as reliant on those yards for sustaining their economy. They do have a much larger pool of workers as a percentage of their population, experienced in orbital industry. Getting a pool retrained for ship building and weapons production will be easier than for Manticore. I wouldn't be surprised if Manticore imported orbital yard workers from Grayson. Those workers will provide a flexible foundation of manpower (likely woman power) to work the orbital yards until enough Manticorans are trained to keep up with the yards being rebuilt. Grayson's dispersed yard system will be a solid stopgap measure until Manticore rebuilds their proper factories and building slips.

The money issue is in large part solved by Pritchard's peace proposal and Operation Janus. By forcing Manticore to commit to the independence from Solarian Office of Frontier Security, Operation Janus has turned the Star Empire of Manticore into the shining white knight of the galaxy in the minds of those Verge residents. They kick out the Solarian transtellars and welcome in Manticore. These systems don't have much money individually. In aggregate however, they have enough wealth to sustain a big chunk of many transtellars' revenue streams. Since those vampire-squids focused on resource/wealth extraction, the individual Verge economies are kept pretty darn small. Investing to allow those economies to grow will make those systems vastly more profitable business partners.

Now, Manticore doesn't have the ability to supply goods as it once had. It still have the cargo capacity to ship goods and excess capital to its rebuilding needs. If it can't staff the facilities it can build, there is no need to rebuild as quickly. Haven has the ability to produce goods since the war hasn't touched its infrastructure very much, but limited ability to ship out what it can produce. The Verge needs quite a bit of everything from high-end medical facilities (Manticore and Beowulf) to low and mid end production tools and system, yet has little funds to pay for what it needs.

So we have the SEM with a excess capital, a massive merchant fleet and Haven with more productivity than markets or merchant cubage to ship their production. The Verge has the desire and need for those goods but no money. Combine these three players and most of their problems are solved by their other partners. Toss in Erewhon to supply capital to the Maya sector Verge and there will be more than enough cargo for the Manty merchant hulls.

Once the capital markets both inside and outside the League realize the Grand Alliance can protect their trading routes while the League will be broken up, the Manticoran dollar will be the strongest currency in the galaxy. That means SEM debt will be the default risk free asset or as near to risk free as circumstances allow.

Long story short, kzt is right. The SEM has no serious long term issues in getting the equipment they need other than hulls or the prospects for getting more including hulls in the future.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

cthia wrote:One thing we can probably take as a given. The Havenites have not been forthcoming with the Sanctuarians by letting them know that the RHN's "involvement" with them in their orbit may bring war to their doorsteps.

And we know that the population itself is not prepared or had any experience with invasion. On planets like Manticore, Haven and the League there are probably fallout shelters which begin filling at the sound of a system alarm.

The population at large would be as innocent and naked as Abby was while she was staring up at the pinpricks of light in the night sky, not knowing that that burning fire seen in the atmosphere is actually errant debris on a trajectory right for their heads.

This doesn't follow at all. They have known for decades that they are the Hidden arsenal of the PRH (and the RH). Given that fact, they have to know that they are vulnerable if the location of Bolt hole is discovered by the enemy.

I can't follow that. They can't have any clue what an "arsenal" is, even in the unlikely very fat chance that Haven has earnestly tried to impart the knowledge. These people have never been in a war. Don't know a war from a fight, from a struggle, except with their own planet. Never seen the kinds of damage that the ships they are building can do. How can they know? How can one truly prepare them, besides trial by fire? Do you really think they are concentrated on the thought, in the shadow of the good they think they are given? Prolong, etc., in any capacity more than a cursory consideration ill equipped to "cursor?"

They aren't even aware of the developed vastness of space much less the possible degree of mass destruction of "something wicked this way comes."

Hell, I doubt whether their gift of prolong was but for any other reason besides pure selfishness by the Legislaturalists of not wanting their indentured slaves, that they've invested tons of cash and time to train, to prematurely die off.

some good points here. we have seen both worst and best case scenarios talked about. in reality there is lik;y to be a middle ground. also take the BIG BOYS the major cartels with massive wealth (think modern day apple with more free cash in the bank then the 70 or 100 poorest governments combined). So what happens if Haupmans starts making "micro" loans with long term repayment to other cartels/businesses/star system governments in talbot, silesa, and haven? Or grayson skydomes/blackbird. the Blackbird yards are gone, but the money that skydomes has is very large. so lets say the lady tells her finacial people to find 5 diffrent star systems that they can invenst 1 to 3 billion focused on manufacturing/shipyards. good long term investments that will pay off and its not like honor will notice the money being used.

now lets take a look at 2 other points.
Andermani - the manties trained up the andies to build modern weapons and shipps of the wall, so tools can be bought from the andermani.
Marsh - the manties helped the marsh government build a modern shipyard and facilities there, granted it wasn't upto building ships of the wall(last time we saw it) but with the knowledge that the manties have how fast could that be scaled up?

now lets combine these points with what we have recently learned about bolthole. a 6 asteroid belt system. virtually unlimited raw resources and the most advanced and experimental systems haven could make(yes not upto the SEM) now lets take a small industiral node with the nanaite vats from the andies and a small node from marsh. break them down transport them to bolthole, start to scale up to pre oysterbay tech and tools at bolt hole, as part of the deal bolthole uses a % of the production to make transportable production units for manticore and grayson. takes time yes. but within 2 to 5 years manticore is back up pre oysterbay production capabilitity (on the facility side anyway, it will take longer to train new people)
now at the same time the talbot systems at the leaset are startying to ramp up too, soon (like some systems already might) talbot home build destoyers and cruizers are being made.

so all in all yes short term hurt (upto 10-15 years on a people side) but in a very short period they will be back and then majorly beyond where they were. especially as oyster bay will demonstrate that the manties MUST have production facilities in as many of thier member systems(all perhaps) as possible.

for the record yes there will be the hybrid sd(
p)s being made by bolthole, and beowulf is providing missles. and yes Missle production is obviously the first of all the production facilities made. those workers will get cycled out to the other new facilities as they can and act as training cadre

PeterZ wrote:What was destroyed was Manticore's three, large orbital industrial centers and a huge percentage of their workforce for those orbital centers. Most of their ships still remain. Rebuilding the orbital factories will take far less time than training a new workforce. If they are lucky there will be some workers that have similar if outdated skills that can be retrained. If not, they start all over again and train from scratch with instructors (both from Manticore and Beowulf) theory becoming a hands on training cadre. It'll take time to get Manticoran industry back up to SL levels of productivity, let alone their own pre-Oyster Bay levels.

Grayson has it tougher in some ways and easier in others. They don't have a massive merchant fleet. They also don't have as much capital to redirect to rebuilding projects. It will take them longer to rebuild their orbital ship yards. That does mean they are not as reliant on those yards for sustaining their economy. They do have a much larger pool of workers as a percentage of their population, experienced in orbital industry. Getting a pool retrained for ship building and weapons production will be easier than for Manticore. I wouldn't be surprised if Manticore imported orbital yard workers from Grayson. Those workers will provide a flexible foundation of manpower (likely woman power) to work the orbital yards until enough Manticorans are trained to keep up with the yards being rebuilt. Grayson's dispersed yard system will be a solid stopgap measure until Manticore rebuilds their proper factories and building slips.

The money issue is in large part solved by Pritchard's peace proposal and Operation Janus. By forcing Manticore to commit to the independence from Solarian Office of Frontier Security, Operation Janus has turned the Star Empire of Manticore into the shining white knight of the galaxy in the minds of those Verge residents. They kick out the Solarian transtellars and welcome in Manticore. These systems don't have much money individually. In aggregate however, they have enough wealth to sustain a big chunk of many transtellars' revenue streams. Since those vampire-squids focused on resource/wealth extraction, the individual Verge economies are kept pretty darn small. Investing to allow those economies to grow will make those systems vastly more profitable business partners.

Now, Manticore doesn't have the ability to supply goods as it once had. It still have the cargo capacity to ship goods and excess capital to its rebuilding needs. If it can't staff the facilities it can build, there is no need to rebuild as quickly. Haven has the ability to produce goods since the war hasn't touched its infrastructure very much, but limited ability to ship out what it can produce. The Verge needs quite a bit of everything from high-end medical facilities (Manticore and Beowulf) to low and mid end production tools and system, yet has little funds to pay for what it needs.

So we have the SEM with a excess capital, a massive merchant fleet and Haven with more productivity than markets or merchant cubage to ship their production. The Verge has the desire and need for those goods but no money. Combine these three players and most of their problems are solved by their other partners. Toss in Erewhon to supply capital to the Maya sector Verge and there will be more than enough cargo for the Manty merchant hulls.

Once the capital markets both inside and outside the League realize the Grand Alliance can protect their trading routes while the League will be broken up, the Manticoran dollar will be the strongest currency in the galaxy. That means SEM debt will be the default risk free asset or as near to risk free as circumstances allow.

Long story short, kzt is right. The SEM has no serious long term issues in getting the equipment they need other than hulls or the prospects for getting more including hulls in the future.