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Oh, what the heck . . .

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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by JohnRoth   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:31 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Unless I have missed something, Sanctuary is likely closer to the Talbot Quadrant than it is to Asgard. Combined with the Mesa terminus, the Calvin terminus ties approximately 25%-30% of the Verge to Manticore and Haven. That number nearly doubles once the Torch termini are mapped and the Erewhon terminus is included.


As far as I can tell from the map, it's probably not. Even if it is, it would be Nuncio, not Lynx, and shipping would have to go from Manticore to Trevor's Star to the other terminal to Calvin. Lynx would still be the better terminus. (BTW - the terminus is not at Sanctuary; it's at Calvin.)

The Torch terminus leads to Felix, which is owned by Mannerheim, which is part of the RA, so long-term it's supposed to be part of a separate star nation that picks up a lot of the pieces that don't stay with what's left of the League and aren't part of the Manticore-Haven alliance. Including Erewhon picks up Terra Haute, but that's all.

In any case, Mannerheim isn't going to allow anyone else to use Felix, since that's the link to Darius.

PeterZ wrote:Manticore and Haven don't need to trade with the League, if such trade becomes too problematic. Access to the verge on that sort of scale will more than make up the loss of Old League, Shell and Protectorate business. Without OFS making those Verge markets inaccessible, Manticore, Haven and the rest of that alliance can grow rich building up those economies. Heck, Grayson's specialty in harsh environments will have at least a few systems that could profit from it.

Those Solarian multi-stellars relying on sucking the Verge dry will lose quite a bit of revenue. That loss will translate to a serious contraction in the aggregate GSPs of the SL. That sort of contraction will cause enough problems to get the movers and shakers of the League to back a reconciliation with the Manty/Haven Grand Alliance. That will take time of course. The immediate shocks to the League will seriously limit their ability to restructure their production enough to begin posing a threat to the Grand Alliance.

This all supposes the Calvin terminus is revealed. Of course, the Grand Alliance may well want to keep Sanctuary secret. Of course, that becomes an even greater moral dilemma for Haven as the peace with Manticore stabilizes. Even without that terminus, Mesa's terminus will provide more access for Manty merchant ship.


The Mesa terminus comes from the Visigoth junction. Visigoth is a lot closer to the league than it is to Manticore - in fact, it's essentially on the boundary between the Core and the Shell.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by kzt   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:47 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Unless I have missed something, Sanctuary is likely closer to the Talbot Quadrant than it is to Asgard. Combined with the Mesa terminus, the Calvin terminus ties approximately 25%-30% of the Verge to Manticore and Haven. That number nearly doubles once the Torch termini are mapped and the Erewhon terminus is included.

Manticore and Haven don't need to trade with the League, if such trade becomes too problematic. Access to the verge on that sort of scale will more than make up the loss of Old League, Shell and Protectorate business. Without OFS making those Verge markets inaccessible, Manticore, Haven and the rest of that alliance can grow rich building up those economies. Heck, Grayson's specialty in harsh environments will have at least a few systems that could profit from it.


How many 3rd-world nations like Niger, North Korea, Yemen, and Zimbabwe does it take to equal the combined GDP of the G20? I'll give your air freight company exclusive access to those nations in exchange for you giving me exclusive access to China, Japan, India, the EU, North America and the Russian aligned nations.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:53 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
As far as I can tell from the map, it's probably not. Even if it is, it would be Nuncio, not Lynx, and shipping would have to go from Manticore to Trevor's Star to the other terminal to Calvin. Lynx would still be the better terminus. (BTW - the terminus is not at Sanctuary; it's at Calvin.)

The Torch terminus leads to Felix, which is owned by Mannerheim, which is part of the RA, so long-term it's supposed to be part of a separate star nation that picks up a lot of the pieces that don't stay with what's left of the League and aren't part of the Manticore-Haven alliance. Including Erewhon picks up Terra Haute, but that's all.

In any case, Mannerheim isn't going to allow anyone else to use Felix, since that's the link to Darius.


Yes, the Calvin terminus is 15 LY from Sanctuary. That terminus will allow freighters to take a long route from Haven (78 LYs away from the other terminus) to Calvin through the Talbot Quadrant to Lunx and back to Haven via Manticore. None of those Verge wolrds will have enough by themselves to devote and entire merchant ship to. In aggregate, the systems on that route will have needs for a great many merchies.

Haven will be able to offer lower tech solutions but also cheaper solutions. The SEM will offer top shelf solutions in exchange for Mobius mutton, Loomis silver oak and all the other specialty items each world might have.

Bottom line is that the distance is still much shorter with that terminus in play.

JohnRoth wrote:The Mesa terminus comes from the Visigoth junction. Visigoth is a lot closer to the league than it is to Manticore - in fact, it's essentially on the boundary between the Core and the Shell.


Visigoth is still closer to Beowulf than mesa is to Lynx. That means travel takes less time to Manticore from mesa via Visigoth than via Lynx. Verge systems to the galactic South of Mesa will be better served via that terminus.

Torch is touchier. Yet, when the Alignment and the Renaissance Factor's conflict with Manticore becomes open war, Mannerheim will lose control of that junction pretty quick.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:16 pm

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kzt wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Unless I have missed something, Sanctuary is likely closer to the Talbot Quadrant than it is to Asgard. Combined with the Mesa terminus, the Calvin terminus ties approximately 25%-30% of the Verge to Manticore and Haven. That number nearly doubles once the Torch termini are mapped and the Erewhon terminus is included.

Manticore and Haven don't need to trade with the League, if such trade becomes too problematic. Access to the verge on that sort of scale will more than make up the loss of Old League, Shell and Protectorate business. Without OFS making those Verge markets inaccessible, Manticore, Haven and the rest of that alliance can grow rich building up those economies. Heck, Grayson's specialty in harsh environments will have at least a few systems that could profit from it.


How many 3rd-world nations like Niger, North Korea, Yemen, and Zimbabwe does it take to equal the combined GDP of the G20? I'll give your air freight company exclusive access to those nations in exchange for you giving me exclusive access to China, Japan, India, the EU, North America and the Russian aligned nations.


Funny you should mention China. Prior to industrialization, all they had were people and a miserable third world economy. Only 20% of their land was suitable for farming. The same 20% that was suitable for building cities and industry upon. Yet within 2 generations they are one of the leading economies of the world. China took Foreign Direct Investment and applied it to putting their people to work.

Manticore has seriously large cash inflows because of the MWJ. That cash needs to be exported or else they will suffer from massive inflation. The Verge needs capital from FDI or honest loans. In aggregate the area of the Verge being discussed has an order of magnitude or two more people than the Grand Alliance. Those people can take the FDI and turn it into significant GSP in relatively short order. Just look at Grayson and Marsh as templates for the sort of investment under discussion.

In many cases Manticore would prefer to do business with underdeveloped Verge systems than with developed Core or Shell worlds. The Verge has a much larger need for capital than for cheap goods and Manticore has a much larger need to provide capital than to grow their exports.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Lunan   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:03 pm

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David. I love you man. i really look forward to reading this story in full SOON!?
its great to finally learn about bolthole and you have a very interesting world that you are putting it on.
I wonder if the story will go all the way to Sonja and some treecats coming to bolthole. Maybe this is the story where Shannon gets adopted.

so far if this was produced after you got better i would agree that your writing has gotten back on track with quality(not that i can judge because i am no word smith)

do you know when we might be seeing this in full?



runsforcelery wrote:While I'm up and posting snippets . . . .



_________________________________________

.III.

Long grass blows on the banks of Despair,
Guarding the graves of the dead.
Mountain storms weep for the sleeping,
And the God of the vanished
Walks through the hills
Calling the names of the gone.
— The Dark Fall Saga.

* * * * * * * * * *

“Madame President.”

The tall, silver haired man stood and walked around his desk to offer Eloise Pritchart his hand. Like most Sanctuarians, he was dark-skinned and that silver hair had once been dark brown, but his eyes were a light, startling blue. And like far too many Sanctuarians, he’d been too old for Prolong when the People’s Republic discovered Refuge.

At least that’s one damned thing the Legislaturalists got right, Pritchart thought as she crossed the spacious office to meet him. They even offered it universally, not restricted solely to people working for them, the way they did the advanced degree programs.

Shirkahna Ambart,” she responded taking his hand in the three-fingered grip that was the Sanctuarian version of a handshake.

Shirkahna was her host’s title, which the protocolists told her translated literally as “shepherd” but could also be translated as both “warlord” or “sentinel.” Apparently, Sanctuarian was a . . . flexible language. However it translated, however, Shirkahna Ambart VIII was the hereditary ruler of Ankhassar, Sanctuary’s most ancient and powerful pre-rediscovery empire. That had simplified things when the Legislaturalists went looking for someone to run the native side of the planet for them.

Like all Sanctuarians, the shirkahna used only one name publicly. Legally, Sanctuary usage attached both a patronymic and a matronymic, so technically, he was Ambart Ambartson-Melynyson, although no one would ever address him as such.

“Please, be seated,” he invited, escorting her across the sunny chamber towards a conversational nook below the windows overlooking the paved courtyard below. Sheila Thiessen, the head of Pritchart’s personal security detail, drifted silently and unobtrusively along behind. Aside from bodyguards and high ranking military offiers, no armed Sanctuarian was ever allowed in the shirkahana’s presence, yet Ambart took no notice at all of Thiessen’s presence.

He waved Pritchart into a comfortable armchair, looking out through the tower window at a deep blue sky. Anvil-headed cumulonimbus clouds swept towards Mountain Fort, crowned in the flicker of distant lightning, and the temperature had been dropping steadily when she arrived. In fact, her shuttle flight crew had clearly been relieved to get her safely on the ground before the looming thunderstorms arrived.

She hoped the weather wasn’t some sort of metaphor for her visit.

Below the fourth-floor window, the city of Mountain Fort sprawled out about the looming castle which had given its name to the entire city. Mountain Fort had been Ankhassa’s imperial city for the past six hundred local years. Its population would scarcely have qualified as a moderate-sized town on Nouveau Paris, but its quarter-million people made it the largest city on Sanctuary and the low-lying architecture of a pre-counter-grav civilization made it look even larger.

“Thank you for making an opportunity for me to meet with you,” she said as Thiessen settled behind her shoulder.

“Under the circumstances, it seemed the thing to do.” Ambart’s Standard English carried a slight accent — he’d been in his mid-thirties before he learned to speak it — but the edge of dry amusement came through clearly and he tilted his head to one side. “In fact, I was rather surprised that you requested a meeting. I believe the highest ranking member of Haven’s government ever to visit Refuge — civilian member, I mean — was Foreign Secretary Bergen when he signed our intial treaty with my father. And I fear the People’s Republic’s — I mean, the Republic’s — representatives’ contacts since have been a bit more . . . peremptory, shall we say?”

“I don’t doubt it.” Pritchart shook her own head. “My . . . predecessors weren’t noted for ‘wasting’ courtesy when they didn’t need to.”

“I’m afraid that’s been my own observation,” the shirkahna said. “Which, I trust you’ll forgive me for pointing out, seemed to just a bit . . . ironic for such an egalitarian regime.”

Pritchart hid a wince, although his point was well taken. Especially coming from a man whose family had ruled almost a third of his homeworld for the last several centuries.

“You’re right,” she said. “In fact, having waded through the last thirty or forty T-years of reports, memos, and correspondence, I’d have to say that I detect a certain . . . imperious note in all of the previous regime’s conversations with you.”

“I’m sure you do. Although, to be fair, I doubt many Sanctuarians would find that out of place. The average lifespan here on Sanctuary, even for those without Prolong, has increased by thirty percent since the Republic discovered us. The standard of living has probably risen by no more than, oh, ten or twenty thousand percent, and it’s continued to follow a steadily rising trajectory for over half my lifetime.” He smiled almost whimsically. “Against that backdrop, a certain degree of what I suppose one might call proprietary authority is probably understandable.”

“Understandable but not exactly commendable,” Pritchart said. He arched an eyebrow at her, and she shrugged with less than complete happiness.

Shirkahna Ambart,” she said then, “I’ve come to see you not simply because some sort of courtesy visit from the Republic’s chief executive is so long overdue, but also because I find myself in a quandary. A deep and, to be honest, very difficult one.”
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Lunan   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:09 pm

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There will come a point, economically where the calvin terminus must be known. if you are right and the mesa/visogoth and lynx/manticore links are "close" astronomically speaking, it will have to be used.
Also the industrial potential of Sanctuary especially as the league comes apart will HAVE to be exploted for more then just the military, This all being said i really do think that Sanctuary will end up being a member world of the Republic of Haven, in facvt a MAJOR sector capital that might just spread daughter colonies

PeterZ wrote:Unless I have missed something, Sanctuary is likely closer to the Talbot Quadrant than it is to Asgard. Combined with the Mesa terminus, the Calvin terminus ties approximately 25%-30% of the Verge to Manticore and Haven. That number nearly doubles once the Torch termini are mapped and the Erewhon terminus is included.

Manticore and Haven don't need to trade with the League, if such trade becomes too problematic. Access to the verge on that sort of scale will more than make up the loss of Old League, Shell and Protectorate business. Without OFS making those Verge markets inaccessible, Manticore, Haven and the rest of that alliance can grow rich building up those economies. Heck, Grayson's specialty in harsh environments will have at least a few systems that could profit from it.

Those Solarian multi-stellars relying on sucking the Verge dry will lose quite a bit of revenue. That loss will translate to a serious contraction in the aggregate GSPs of the SL. That sort of contraction will cause enough problems to get the movers and shakers of the League to back a reconciliation with the Manty/Haven Grand Alliance. That will take time of course. The immediate shocks to the League will seriously limit their ability to restructure their production enough to begin posing a threat to the Grand Alliance.

This all supposes the Calvin terminus is revealed. Of course, the Grand Alliance may well want to keep Sanctuary secret. Of course, that becomes an even greater moral dilemma for Haven as the peace with Manticore stabilizes. Even without that terminus, Mesa's terminus will provide more access for Manty merchant ship.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Weird Harold   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:17 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:The Torch terminus leads to Felix, which is owned by Mannerheim, ...


No.

The Torch wormhole leads to "The Twins." The other "Twin" leads to Felix. Mannerheim is quietly trying to buy up all the conflicting claims to the Felix system, but does NOT currently own the system. They do occupy the system -- as well as the "Twins'" system -- but they don't own either.
.
.
.
Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:19 pm

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Lunan wrote:There will come a point, economically where the calvin terminus must be known. if you are right and the mesa/visogoth and lynx/manticore links are "close" astronomically speaking, it will have to be used.
Also the industrial potential of Sanctuary especially as the league comes apart will HAVE to be exploted for more then just the military, This all being said i really do think that Sanctuary will end up being a member world of the Republic of Haven, in facvt a MAJOR sector capital that might just spread daughter colonies .


I agree that Sanctuary will belong to the Republic of Haven. Not sure if Haven's Constitution allows monarchies in member system, though. I suppose that since Sanctuary doesn't have a system wide government yet, something will be worked out.

The interesting part is which verge system will join which polity? I can see most of the worlds subject to Operation Janus joining Manticore. I can see many of the others leveraging between Haven and Manticore for the best "deal". In either case I foresee both a Havenite lobe and a Manty lobe in that area of the galaxy. Both polities will have a shining example of what joining that polity may mean.
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Lunan   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:23 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
Funny you should mention China. Prior to industrialization, all they had were people and a miserable third world economy. Only 20% of their land was suitable for farming. The same 20% that was suitable for building cities and industry upon. Yet within 2 generations they are one of the leading economies of the world. China took Foreign Direct Investment and applied it to putting their people to work.

Manticore has seriously large cash inflows because of the MWJ. That cash needs to be exported or else they will suffer from massive inflation. The Verge needs capital from FDI or honest loans. In aggregate the area of the Verge being discussed has an order of magnitude or two more people than the Grand Alliance. Those people can take the FDI and turn it into significant GSP in relatively short order. Just look at Grayson and Marsh as templates for the sort of investment under discussion.

In many cases Manticore would prefer to do business with underdeveloped Verge systems than with developed Core or Shell worlds. The Verge has a much larger need for capital than for cheap goods and Manticore has a much larger need to provide capital than to grow their exports.


the point about capital investment makes sense, however the RMN is still going to need a major amount of the budget for destroyers and cruisers of all sizes to protect that investment. Each member system will need a "home fleet" of its own (3 or 4 squadrons of sds with screen and clacs?)

Now Talbot has nothing to do but GROW, also the trade with the systems around Talbot and those system sthat chose to JOIN the SEM similar to Talbot.

And am i the ONLY one who wants to know about Silesa? those systems should provde almost as much a boost to the SEM as Talbot. I mean assuming that after UH David jumps the timeline forward (as originally planed) this of course assumes he comes back to the Honorverse after UH. Jump that story 20, 30, maybe even 50 years into the future, we will have new empires, kingdoms, republics, etc at the galactic power resettles. Honor is "retired" can you say Prime Minister Alexander-Harrington. The Invictus 2 is the ship of the wall of choice, and here is the RF coming to talk
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Re: Oh, what the heck . . .
Post by Lunan   » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:32 pm

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PeterZ wrote:I agree that Sanctuary will belong to the Republic of Haven. Not sure if Haven's Constitution allows monarchies in member system, though. I suppose that since Sanctuary doesn't have a system wide government yet, something will be worked out.

The interesting part is which verge system will join which polity? I can see most of the worlds subject to Operation Janus joining Manticore. I can see many of the others leveraging between Haven and Manticore for the best "deal". In either case I foresee both a Havenite lobe and a Manty lobe in that area of the galaxy. Both polities will have a shining example of what joining that polity may mean.


while i see a number of systems around Talbot asking to join the SEM (haven is not astronomically close enough to expand there i think).
I can see many of them becoming single system polities, or smaller multi system ones. The Streak drive will not stay secret too much longer, and the way its described i would think any realativly modern shipyard will be able to build them, so most of the core, the shell and alot of the outer polities (haven, sem, andies, maya, etc).

so Streak drives become fairly common, communication times get faster. Then we have the Star Kingdom of Meyers. Lets say they reach out to 3 or 6 systems of the old meyers sector and form the Republican Empire of Meyers just to give it a name, a 3 to 7 star system kingdom/republic/empire. one allied to the SEM. Now all those old and obsolete frontier fleet units that are surrendering captured etc, can be given to the new Allied or at least friendly systems that are no longer solly controlled. Export version of modern ships, and industrial capital needed, special loans, etc. and you have a nice buffer zone of systems and empires between the SEM and the RF
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