If the econmy fails

DDHv wrote:Have you noted that our recent improvements in cross communication reduce the influence of publisher and other "gatekeepers" about our access to information

Yeah, but it also means far more low quality information flying around to be filtered out.

umbrarchist wrote:

DDHv wrote:Have you noted that our recent improvements in cross communication reduce the influence of publisher and other "gatekeepers" about our access to information

Yeah, but it also means far more low quality information flying around to be filtered out.

Ouch - so true! This includes both low quality opinions, and inaccurate data. IMO, the worst is when any theory is elevated above observations because you then get no corrective against bad information


Back to the economy.

From: http://townhall.com/columnists/thomasso ... sletterad=

Letter from a reader: "The Socialists want to take the 'sting' out of poverty. They don't understand that it's the 'sting' that got everyone I know out of poverty and not a minimum wage."

Well, it worked for my parents


From: http://townhall.com/columnists/johnstos ... sletterad=

Bad idea. Economists call this the "tragedy of the commons." When everyone works "together," some people don't work very hard.

I once read that in all of congress, there is only one person who is an economist. Don't know if this is real, but some of the laws passed sure sound like it is

From: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.c ... EwRL_PTNFQ

It's just that now, we can directly communicate how much federal spending per household that the United States can truly afford with respect to the income of the median household.

If any of you have good contacts with a congressman or staff, you might bring this to their attention. I'm going to send it to the offices of ours. The same method of analysis should work for any other country where the needed data exist
Of course, they can misuse it

From: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... ing-parity

Innovation and differentiation—the creation of things new and singular—are a boon to economic progress and the bane of economic measurement.

Worth reading

From: http://personalliberty.com/hidden-bank-power-see/

When sanity prevailed, financial markets were primarily a reflection and facilitator of the global economy. Now that it’s been financialised, we have a sort of ‘upside down’ casino in which financial markets act as the primary support mechanism and tend to lead the economy.

Does anyone know any time in history when this type of situation has worked out well

DDHv wrote:From: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.c ... EwRL_PTNFQ

It's just that now, we can directly communicate how much federal spending per household that the United States can truly afford with respect to the income of the median household.

If any of you have good contacts with a congressman or staff, you might bring this to their attention. I'm going to send it to the offices of ours. The same method of analysis should work for any other country where the needed data exist
Of course, they can misuse it

From: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... ing-parity

Innovation and differentiation—the creation of things new and singular—are a boon to economic progress and the bane of economic measurement.

Worth reading

From: http://personalliberty.com/hidden-bank-power-see/

When sanity prevailed, financial markets were primarily a reflection and facilitator of the global economy. Now that it’s been financialised, we have a sort of ‘upside down’ casino in which financial markets act as the primary support mechanism and tend to lead the economy.

Does anyone know any time in history when this type of situation has worked out well

As far as I can find, this has gone back as far as the 1600s. Just before the french revolution the Real estate market blew up

WeirdlyWired wrote:
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As far as I can find, this has gone back as far as the 1600s. Just before the french revolution the Real estate market blew up

The bean counters taking over an economy does seem to (by historical standards) precede collapses. Would this be this a cause or just an early symptom of the collapse?

For those using sunrooms, greenhouses, etc. for winter vegetable production: Eliot Coleman's books are worth study. Coleman discusses what can live at sheltered lower temperatures and how to handle them. He developed his commercial methods in zone 3, later moved to zone 5 to allow greater variety.

Finding that empty gallon jugs (2 >5/week) can be recycled from a local garage improved my winter night time (unheated) temperatures. I'm not complete, but current outside temperature is -7degF, solar room 22.6 deg F, up from last year. Jugs are more work than water barrels and only last a few years in sunlight. They also have more surface area. The recycling is: hold water > plant pots > fuel.


From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... for-repeal
A recession comes, then >

Terrified politicians and hyperventilating media figures immediately begin identifying scapegoats and demanding scalps. Conveniently, those scapegoats always reside in the private sector, never mind how government mandates dictated business decisions or steered us toward the reckoning. Blame is always placed on alleged insufficient regulation, never overregulation.

Predictably, the scapegoats also happen to have deep pockets. Trial lawyers descend like vultures, and class action lawsuits multiply. New laws are passed. New regulations are imposed. New agencies are empowered. They won't let this happen again.

Then, a few short years later it happens again anyway. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The push toward more state control ignores that bureaucratic blunders hurt many other people. A private sector blunder in something done at their own expense contrasts that with smaller problems, except to themselves. FWIR, a regulation requiring baby clothes to be non-flammable used a chemical which turned out to be a carcinogen. By the time this was discovered, a major recall was needed. Given a private effort, there would have been less sold, and possibly competitive alternatives

The EPA recently recently let liquid mine waste be released into moving water. Does anyone know if those responsible had any personal consequences from the blunder


From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... filibuster

Minutes after President Trump announced his Supreme Court nominee, Schumer proclaimed that "on a subject as important as a Supreme court nomination," there have to be 60 votes to move the nomination along.
snip
At the Constitutional Convention, the framers considered requiring a supermajority in the Senate to pass laws, but repeatedly rejected the idea.

James Madison explained in Federalist No. 58 that it would give the minority control over the majority. The "principle of free government would be reversed." Requiring laws to pass two houses of Congress and giving the president a veto were better ways to promote wise lawmaking.
snip
NYU law professor Burt Neuborne deplores these "rules that scratch my back today and yours tomorrow." They protect career politicians but not the public.

From: "The Road to Serfdom" by Frederich A. Hayek

(in collectivist polities) Every activity must derive its justification from a conscious social purpose. There must be no spontaneous, unguided activity, because it might produce results which cannot be foreseen and for which the plan does not provide.

Hayek lived through the events of pre WWII Austria. This book was published in 1944, but IMO is still well worth reading. One point he explains is why in a collectivist movement, there is a strong tendency for evil people to rise to power

From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... nder-obama

Per capita incomes are much higher in countries that are more economically free. Economies rated 'free' or 'mostly free' in the 2017 Index generate incomes that are more than double the average levels in other countries, and more than five times higher than the incomes of people living in countries with 'repressed' economies.

OTOH

"Economic freedom has advanced in a majority of the world's countries over the past year. Global average economic freedom increased by 0.2 points to a record level of 60.9 on the 0-100 scale used in the Index of Economic Freedom. Since the inception of the Index in 1995, average scores have increased by over 5 percent."

The US still ranks as "mostly free." Is this a comfort to those who have problems because some bureaucrat over-regulates

Depends if you use average or median capita incomes as your yardstick. Less regulations do tend to increase economic activity, but they can also increase income inequity. Not much use to the typical worker if the nation's average capita income rises, but his drops because more is going to the obligarths.

DDHv wrote:From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... nder-obama

Per capita incomes are much higher in countries that are more economically free. Economies rated 'free' or 'mostly free' in the 2017 Index generate incomes that are more than double the average levels in other countries, and more than five times higher than the incomes of people living in countries with 'repressed' economies.

OTOH

"Economic freedom has advanced in a majority of the world's countries over the past year. Global average economic freedom increased by 0.2 points to a record level of 60.9 on the 0-100 scale used in the Index of Economic Freedom. Since the inception of the Index in 1995, average scores have increased by over 5 percent."

The US still ranks as "mostly free." Is this a comfort to those who have problems because some bureaucrat over-regulates

Daryl wrote:Depends if you use average or median capita incomes as your yardstick. Less regulations do tend to increase economic activity, but they can also increase income inequity. Not much use to the typical worker if the nation's average capita income rises, but his drops because more is going to the obligarths.

DDHv wrote:From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... nder-obama

"Per capita incomes are much higher in countries that are more economically free. Economies rated 'free' or 'mostly free' in the 2017 Index generate incomes that are more than double the average levels in other countries, and more than five times higher than the incomes of people living in countries with 'repressed' economies./"
OTOH
"Economic freedom has advanced in a majority of the world's countries over the past year. Global average economic freedom increased by 0.2 points to a record level of 60.9 on the 0-100 scale used in the Index of Economic Freedom. Since the inception of the Index in 1995, average scores have increased by over 5 percent. /"
The US still ranks as "mostly free." Is this a comfort to those who have problems because some bureaucrat over-regulates

Very true. OTOH, From: http://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/ ... izens-flee

People vote with their proverbial feet. So do employers.

IMO this is a case of theory vs. experiment


Curently reading: "Specialization and Trade" by Arnold Kling. It looks very interesting so far and I'm still in the introduction

snip
Unfortunately, economists have shown little willingness to advance the state of their own art.
snip
New knowledge is like a dive in the surf in the winter - bracing, exhilarating. but not everyone's cup of tea.
snip
The 1987, 194, 1998, and 2007 catalysts all went supercritical. The crisis chain reactions were truncated only with massive central bank and other policy interventions.
I lived through all four crises in different capacities as a banker, hedge fund executive, and analyst. I did not see the first three crises coming. They just happened, or so it seemed at the time, and I did my best to manage through them. Based on those experiences, especially 1998, I did the research and developed the models needed to properly understand the statistical properties of risk. Looking back at 1987, 1994, and 1998, I can see those crises didn't "just happen," but were a foreseeable result of critical state dynamics. Using the proper models, the 2007 crisis was foreseeable by 2005, as I warned at the time.
remainder

From: The Road to Ruin, by James Rickards

As covered in the book, he didn't develop the models by himself, but adapted work using behavior psychology, complexity theory, and causal inference in other fields to economic modeling. He states that it is about seven decades since the last major advances in economics .

This non-fiction book is worth reading. "Psychohistorical Crisis," a SF book by Donald Kingsbury, is also worth reading. Much of the best SF explores an alternate future using a story. (This relates to Asimov's Foundation series)

Ideas have consequences, bad ideas have victims

source not known

IMO Reading these two books would be worthwhile for those who would rather not chew their own foot off to escape a financial trap


BJ & I have just ordered a Liberator rocket stove. Extremely efficient, it uses wood, pellets, or corn kernels as fuel, no electricity, and has a cooking surface. Too small to handle all our heating needs, it can serve as supplemental heat now, and backup in emergency to at least keep the house from freezing

FROM: https://personalliberty.com/liberal-inq ... ee-speech/

The death of free speech has been emblematic to every great power in decline.

When a great power is in decline, the people in it should take precautions against an economic collapse. At present, the US dollar is the reserve currency, producing lower prices for imported goods. When reserve currency status fails, a large jump in most prices is to be expected.

Assuming money still works. Get a safety deposit box in each city you frequent. Big enough to store your reserve money and stuff. Keep the keys on your key ring and have the boxes near a bus stop. Things to store, depending on size?
Dried fruit.
Jerky
Small bill Cash, 1-2-5$10 bills 100-200 of each.
prepaid phone
prepaid debit card that doesn't decrease or expire.
Have them close enough so you can service them, Yearly.
Replace food, replace debit cards and or phones as need be.
Some prepaid cards need to be renewed every year.
Don't set them up on the same day, space them out.
If you have five $20 a year deposit boxes with $2500 cash plus $2500 pre paid credit and a pre paid phone. With three days a food.
If big enough have a compressed air or spring pellet pistol, realistic looking. Good for plinking birds, legal just about everywhere and cheap intimidation factor. A Model 85 Paraordinance SMG even more so. Not as good for hunting but paintball ammo can be replaced with solid ammo if need be. (not real bullets) Intimidation factor 10. 900 rounds per minute and noisy. "brass" (plastic) can be reloaded.