kzt wrote:Bluesqueak wrote:In both World War One and World War Two, the United Kingdom had a War Risks Insurance Scheme. Essentially, the government became the Insurer of Last Resort - and controlled merchant shipping by controlling which routes were insured.
Given the relatively calm way that the Manticoran Merchant ships respond to the recall - one slightly desperate request to complete this run is about the extent of it - there's likely some equivalent on Manticore. The merchant skippers don't seem to be expecting to be bankrupt once they get home; they're worried about the immediate contract payment that covers the bank payment due before they report in.
I would point out that recovering from the devastating economic effects of a major war is a damn sight more survivable than the tender mercies of the OFS. If WW2 and the UK is anything to go by, Manticore will have recovered in twenty to thirty years - but planets were suffering under the OFS unto the second and third generation.
When WW1 started, there was much rejoicing in the U.K., Germany and France as the armies marched into battle. It turned out that the war didn't quite work out like the cheering crowds expected.
And then the entire export industry of Manticore suddenly was destroyed, along with several decades worth of gross system product worth of investment. So now they suddenly have nothing to ship to anyone, and this won't just go away as soon as the the politicians stop being dumb.
How many decades worth of gross system product do you think the government of manticore has on hand in cash? I would suspect much less than one.
There is a time in war to consider economic cost. There is a time, in war, when you can't consider economic cost - because losing means that your economy will be that of a conquered province. The only economic cost you can consider are 'logistics'. As White Haven says when ordering Lacoon,
...we're fresh out of good alternatives.
I'm currently re-reading Shadow of Saganami, and it's made pretty clear that Manticore is about to get into that sort of war with the Solarian League. In Mission of Honor, it's clear that White Haven has realised that. If Manticore loses any kind of war with the Solarian League, it's not going to be like negotiating with Haven. It's going to be 'Hello, we're the Office of Frontier Security, and we're here to exploit you.'
Furthermore, the entire merchant fleet of Manticore has just become a weapon of war. There's a real danger their merchant shippers will be interned anyway, their hulls lost (and what's the insurance on that?) to the Solarian League.
Basically, Manticore is not confidently about to embark on World War One. They're not an equal power with the Solarian Navy (at least, they didn't think so, and neither did anyone else). But nor can they afford to smile sweetly and say 'oh, did our ships get in your way?' when an insane Solarian Admiral blows them up. Nations, star nations or not, simply can't afford to let foreign navies blow up their ships whenever they feel like it.
Lacoon is a last ditch attempt to stop a full scale war, by keeping things to the level of a commerce war. Is it going to damage the Manticoran economy? Yes.
Is the alternative (surrendering to the Solarians) worse? Yes. We have several books' worth of detail on how almost anything is better than being a Solarian 'protectorate'.
Does it matter how much cash-in-hand the Manticoran system government has? Nope. Sorry, but nope. Does it matter how much of their current economy is destroyed? Nope. Sorry, but nope. The reason I quoted the UK and WW2 is partly because it's the history I know best , but mostly because I know the UK economy was pretty well destroyed by World War Two. Yet, forty years later, it had pretty much recovered. Forty years is nothing to a prolong society.
Manticore is not fighting World War One. This is World War Two. Oyster Bay is Pearl Harbor. Whatever the economic damage the war does, they have to commit to it - because they simply can't afford to lose.