Investing techinques

From: http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/0 ... icall.aspx

But it is dedicating yourself to following logic, it is dedicating yourself to trying to find -- there's a famous book called The Signal and the Noise, where you have so much information that you have to figure out what to use to make a decision. And so critical thinking is also all about picking the sources, appropriate sources for your information, and fitting them into your rational thought process.

Yes

DDHv wrote:From: http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/0 ... icall.aspx

But it is dedicating yourself to following logic, it is dedicating yourself to trying to find -- there's a famous book called The Signal and the Noise, where you have so much information that you have to figure out what to use to make a decision. And so critical thinking is also all about picking the sources, appropriate sources for your information, and fitting them into your rational thought process.

Yes

Two options:(1) "A random Walk Through Wall Street" tack the NYSE report from WSJ on the wall of your man cavr and throw darts at it. Buy the stocks you hit.

(2) The indexed funds. Buy the Fortune 500 index or the DJ index (or both)plus a good AAA or AA+ bond fund. kick back and resume your creer.

I am not smart enough to take on the secondary stock casino. Never play a pro at his game on his table.

A weekly financial paper I get has a section where every five weeks nine financial gurus notionally allocate $100,000 in ten $10,000 lots to shares. A random number generator called the Dartboard does the same. The investments are tracked over five weeks to see who picked the wisest. Usually the Dartboard wins.

Go passive as much as possible, and hold long for the rest i think is probably the best answer. My passive fund has been returning me close to 8 to 9% pa over the last few years, after fees, and is currently 4.4% after fees for this year, so im not doing too bad. even better is the investment i make is 2/3 matched by my employer, and 50% matched by the govt, so i get 116% return immediately on my initial investment, and another 4.4% on that, or an overall return of 126% P.A on that years investment, and interest of around 5.1 to 11% over the last few years, after fees. you have to work pretty hard to beat that......

Spacekiwi wrote:Go passive as much as possible, and hold long for the rest i think is probably the best answer. My passive fund has been returning me close to 8 to 9% pa over the last few years, after fees, and is currently 4.4% after fees for this year, so im not doing too bad. even better is the investment i make is 2/3 matched by my employer, and 50% matched by the govt, so i get 116% return immediately on my initial investment, and another 4.4% on that, or an overall return of 126% P.A on that years investment, and interest of around 5.1 to 11% over the last few years, after fees. you have to work pretty hard to beat that......

WOW!
I'm trying out the various techniques discussed in sample newsletters to see which work best. This is with small amounts, of course. So far it looks like those using the Austrian school of economics as their basis are doing best for long range predictions

Daryl wrote:A weekly financial paper I get has a section where every five weeks nine financial gurus notionally allocate $100,000 in ten $10,000 lots to shares. A random number generator called the Dartboard does the same. The investments are tracked over five weeks to see who picked the wisest. Usually the Dartboard wins.

This kind of test has been done several times.

There was one where a literal "dartboard" won, ie they picked by throwing darts at a target with hidden writing on it.

Another test, the monkey won against the "pro" investors and the computer. Again, literally the monkey.


The one thing i´ve learned about stocks, is that logic does not apply. Pack mentality does, and usually in the most stupid way possible.

Tenshinai wrote:

Daryl wrote:A weekly financial paper I get has a section where every five weeks nine financial gurus notionally allocate $100,000 in ten $10,000 lots to shares. A random number generator called the Dartboard does the same. The investments are tracked over five weeks to see who picked the wisest. Usually the Dartboard wins.

This kind of test has been done several times.

There was one where a literal "dartboard" won, ie they picked by throwing darts at a target with hidden writing on it.

Another test, the monkey won against the "pro" investors and the computer. Again, literally the monkey.


The one thing i´ve learned about stocks, is that logic does not apply. Pack mentality does, and usually in the most stupid way possible.

FWIR, this applies to short time spans, while in the long run, the noise tends to cancel out, and there is at least a little connection with reality. This also includes much oscillation due to fads and panics, as you say

I look for solid companies that pay a decent divided and are down for no good reason, or for something temporary. Then keep them unless there's a compelling reason to sell.
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Major Strasser has been shot! Round up the usual suspects!

Consider this macro picture before you finalize your selections of stock and exit strategies.


http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/10.2469/cp.v33.n4.1

Imaginos1892 wrote:I look for solid companies that pay a decent divided and are down for no good reason, or for something temporary. Then keep them unless there's a compelling reason to sell.
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Major Strasser has been shot! Round up the usual suspects!

Imaginos1892 wrote:I look for solid companies that pay a decent divided and are down for no good reason, or for something temporary. Then keep them unless there's a compelling reason to sell.
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Major Strasser has been shot! Round up the usual suspects!

PeterZ wrote:Consider this macro picture before you finalize your selections of stock and exit strategies.

One thing in that article jumped right out at me: 'consumption-led growth'

Ain't no such thing.

Without production, there can be no consumption. All value is created by four sectors of the economy: farming, mining, manufacturing and construction. When they are strong, so is the economy. When all the value creation is done in other countries, when all that happens in your country is adding cost, your economy is in trouble.

I left out one word. Sorry. I buy stock in solid manufacturing companies that pay a decent dividend. If they don't make something, I tend to give them a pass. My only recent exception to that rule was a couple hundred shares of AT&T.
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If a ship can cross the ocean in 10 days, that doesn't mean 10 ships can cross it in one day.