(Spoilers - sorta) Predictions for Arc 2

Okay. The Jihad is over (officially? probably) and we have at least 3 different Churches of God Awaiting in existence with maybe a fourth one about to form in Harchong.

Then Weber unleashes arc 2 on us in a few years time. What do we think the setup will include? Here are my thoughts (but as always, all characters, legal rights etc belong to David Weber and if any predictions do occur in the book, all I will say is "called it!")

1) Prince Daivyn - He's got a massive worship-case for Seijins and almost certainly will want to be one himself. As such, he will be a keen student in the art of Kendo and will often spar with Nimue, Merlin and Cayleb. He'll possibly become known as The Seijin Prince.

2) Steam power - RFC has indicated that railroads will spread across Safehold meaning that steel production will continue to grow (engine parts, rails etc). We can expect more foundries everywhere except North Harchong (too traditional) and Desnair (too anti-trade but has gold mines).
At least a dozen railway lines will reach Zion, allowing for more people to make the religiously-mandated once-in-a-lifetime journey.

3) Narhmahn gone. He's too good at ferreting out things and will tilt the stage too much against the Returned Archangels. We know he intended to shut down when his wife finally died... meaning we'll see his son mourning his loss once again.

4) Only one armed Galleon remaining in the Charisian Navy and that one for ceremonial purposes such as State Visits. Said Galleon will be an Ironclad one, though. All other ships to be steam-powered.

5) Earl Thirsk being appointed as Chief Military Commander of Dohlar in charge of all land, sea and possibly air forces. Dude deserves respect, he was probably better than Cayleb would have been without Merlin's aid.

6) Zeppelins. They've proved darned useful as tethered craft so someone will figure out a way to get a small engine aboard them to let them fly at will. Secondary air-bladders inside the Hydrogen bags will allow them to change the relative density and thus lift generated by the gas, letting them go up and down as needed.

7) At least a dozen King Haarald VII-class ships in the ICN with one or two of them being slightly modified to be the personal vessels for Cayleb and Sharleyan when they transition between capitals. Possible scene has Old-style Clyntahn-loyalists try to attack, only to get blown out of the water at range.

8) Prince Zhanhn joins the ICN or Army despite his wedded bliss in order to follow the tradition of service the Armahk family follows. Tends to find random Seijins pop up to tell him things that he really needs to know.

...and that's all the formed-enough-to-note-down expectations I have so far.
RFC will probably read this and fall over laughing or something at how I'm trying to predict him.
Heck, he got me good with the Major Phandys thing. I did not see it coming, but frantic backtracking through the other books revealed the hints that something was up...

Humm...Dunno. Olyvia is early midde aged, probably in early 40s. I would imagine she has nannite protection which means that unless she falls off a balcony or something, she's gonna be around for a long time. Don't expect Naahrman to go anyehere soon...

Don

-

I don't think there will be more than three King Haarald class ships. These wooden hulled ships are already a legacy design. The Victory ships are all steel framed and steel hulled.

They may keep the Haraald's as museum or training ships in Cherayth, Manchyr and Tellesberg, but they will be part of the reserve fleet only.

The ICN will likely be an assembly of division or squadron sized groups of improving designs. 4-8 steel hulled version of the Haraald's, then 4-8 18k-20k ton battleships mounting four pneumatic/hydraulic twin-turret 12" rifles as primaries with 6" rifles as secondary weapons. I figure that the ICN will just launch the fourth generation battleship under Captain Hektor Alpin-Ahrmahk by the time the second story arc begins.

I am hoping its a 40k-50k ton beast mounting 5 triple turret 16" rifles. I would love to see an RFC steam punk version of a Montana. Perhaps it will go against the Dohlaran or South Harchong version of the Yamato.

The same sort of design logic will go for the smaller ships. Howsmyn will build squadron sized runs of ships and improve the design for the next production run.

I will also state that any of these ideas are guesses for what David Weber has already imagined for his story. I do not consider the ideas behind these posts as proprietary in any way.

PeterZ wrote:I don't think there will be more than three King Haarald class ships. These wooden hulled ships are already a legacy design. The Victory ships are all steel framed and steel hulled.

They may keep the Haraald's as museum or training ships in Cherayth, Manchyr and Tellesberg, but they will be part of the reserve fleet only.

The ICN will likely be an assembly of division or squadron sized groups of improving designs. 4-8 steel hulled version of the Haraald's, then 4-8 18k-20k ton battleships mounting four pneumatic/hydraulic twin-turret 12" rifles as primaries with 6" rifles as secondary weapons. I figure that the ICN will just launch the fourth generation battleship under Captain Hektor Alpin-Ahrmahk by the time the second story arc begins.

I am hoping its a 40k-50k ton beast mounting 5 triple turret 16" rifles. I would love to see an RFC steam punk version of a Montana. Perhaps it will go against the Dohlaran or South Harchong version of the Yamato.

The same sort of design logic will go for the smaller ships. Howsmyn will build squadron sized runs of ships and improve the design for the next production run.

I will also state that any of these ideas are guesses for what David Weber has already imagined for his story. I do not consider the ideas behind these posts as proprietary in any way.

I think that the Haarahlds will be round a bit longer than you do. Yes, the design is legacy, as you point out. But they are the most powerful ships in the world. After all that expense, it would be foolish to retire them... and there is no indication that they will have challengers any time soon.

Remember how long the Iowa lasted after she was thoroughly obsolete.

Weren't there six in the building slips rather than three? I remember the decision to downsize the number from twelve to six in MTAT, but I don't remember it going down to three. I would agree that whatever the number is, there is no point in building more of them...

The tech will also continue to advance. I would think that fast, battlecruiser sized ships would be more useful for the ICN for the neat to intermediate term future than full sized battleships like the Iowa. The EOC could build more of them to meet the needs of a navy with global responsibilities.

Dilandu did have a point about putting too many eggs in too few baskets in his criticism of the Haarahlds.

That being said, what happened to the Eraystor at Gorath should be subject to an inquiry asking what implications might be drawm about the linitations of the Cities and what that might mean for future designs.

Don

-

PeterZ wrote:I don't think there will be more than three King Haarald class ships. These wooden hulled ships are already a legacy design. The Victory ships are all steel framed and steel hulled.

I think it's possible they may complete the six hulls that are already in the pipeline - after all, the ICN's closest naval competitor knows perfectly well they can't even duplicate HMS Dreadnought, let alone HMS King Haarald VII. So the class is going to be useful for a few years; especially if they've paid for most of the building already.

Most of the early RN ironclad classes only lasted two to four years as front-line ships - the pace of change was so dramatic. But that was a situation where all the major navies were able to duplicate each others technology; I can imagine the details of making Howmynized steel being a classified secret for Charis for as long as possible, even if they're willing to sell the finished product.

Dollars to donuts Howsmynized steel gets leaked to Siddermark and then to Dohlar in the next few years. Releasing those secrets in ways to make other nations adopt and maintain their innovative ways is the best way to undermine the Proscriptions.

If that is correct, the KHs will have competition real soon. They may last 5-10 years, but not much longer. Dohlar will have steel hulled ships inside 10 years. Likely, Howsmynized steel.

PeterZ wrote:Dollars to donuts Howsmynized steel gets leaked to Siddermark and then to Dohlar in the next few years. Releasing those secrets in ways to make other nations adopt and maintain their innovative ways is the best way to undermine the Proscriptions.

If that is correct, the KHs will have competition real soon. They may last 5-10 years, but not much longer. Dohlar will have steel hulled ships inside 10 years. Likely, Howsmynized steel.

It will be interesting to see if the secret is leaked or if innovators elsewhere figure out how to make even better steel. Then too, given Howsmyn's impulse to improve things, current Howsmynized steel will give way to something even better.

I agree with your thought on the benchlife of the Haarahlds although it will probably be closer to 10 years than to 5.

My guess is that future naval competition will come from Dohlar though it will take a few years to recover from the strain of the war effort. Siddarmark has already recovered and exceeded its pre-war industrial output. Their immediate interest is going to be in railroads. Also, I wouldn't be surprised at off rail wheeled transport both for military and industrial purposes.

I wonder where the next book will pick up... a few years prior to the next war or with the war itself.

Don

-

My guess is that Charis, South Harchong and Dohlar will push too hard on innovative changes and find social unrest in various degrees within their nations. Wouldn't be surprised if South Harchong found integrating some or all of Desnair a problem. Desnair may well focus on the way Harchong embraced innovation as a reason they attacked. They'll blame bad Charisian habits for all Desnair's trouble. Dohlaran Temple Loyalists will make the same claim about their own innovators. Imperials will see uneven distribution of new found wealth and blame those that prospered. I suspect Corisande and Chisholm will see it worst but not bad enough to set off a revolution. Zebediah will be ecstatic to have simply a chance at rising in prosperity to stop being grateful to their Grand Duke. Emerald is too close to Old Charis not to benefit from the increased production. Tarot will grow rich trading with Silkiah and Siddermark.

The second arc begins with that as a background and a new Grand Vicar being groomed by Duchairn who wants to slow down the innovations.

I sort of agree about Dohlar competing with the Charisian Navy.

But I'm guessing that it will be a more-or-less friendly competition in that they want to be seen as a Peer but not as a foe.

It would be fun if the Dohlarian Navy could come up with ideas that would make the Charisians go "why didn't we think of that".

n7axw wrote:
It will be interesting to see if the secret is leaked or if innovators elsewhere figure out how to make even better steel. Then too, given Howsmyn's impulse to improve things, current Howsmynized steel will give way to something even better.

I agree with your thought on the benchlife of the Haarahlds although it will probably be closer to 10 years than to 5.

My guess is that future naval competition will come from Dohlar though it will take a few years to recover from the strain of the war effort. Siddarmark has already recovered and exceeded its pre-war industrial output. Their immediate interest is going to be in railroads. Also, I wouldn't be surprised at off rail wheeled transport both for military and industrial purposes.

I wonder where the next book will pick up... a few years prior to the next war or with the war itself.

Don

-

I believe we must first look at all the old people and wonder who will die in the interim period between this book and the next. Thirsk is already a grandfather and has already been shot once. Nor is he a member of the Inner Circle (and unlikely to become one) so he may die. Maikel Staynair is even older, as is Dr. Mahklyn. In the latter's case, I would guess that he would consent to having his consciousness uploaded to the VR construct as he gets older (despite the damage the nanites would cause his brain). And there's Duchairn and Magwair to consider as well. Neither is particularly young. Put all together I believe that the next book opens with the funeral of someone important, probably Magwair and/or Staynair. This death would be the triggering event to the instability to follow.

Second, Charis, Siddarmark, South Harchong (which might become an independent state and change its name), the Temple Lands and Dohlar will all embrace innovation to the greatest degree. The first two for the obvious reasons - mistrust of the Temple and no desire to be caught with their pants down by a resurgent Church. Dohlar will try to match Charis' naval power if only to deter Charisian expansionism (something tells me Charis will claim many of the islands in the Gulf of Dohlar as part of the peace treaty) and South Harchong will do it to deter Dohlar. And the Temple Lands will do it because they can no longer rely on Mother Church's power to protect them, especially given the sheer power of the Republican Army after the Jihad.

Third, I have a feeling the Inner Circle will be recruiting people to remain in Nimue's Cave full-time, as a way to grow a cadre of technologically savvy Safeholdians who can work on the problem of the OBS. I feel we'll be seeing Stephanie Mallard and her brother in this group, along with perhaps, certain members of the royal and imperial families.

Fourth, I think Duchairn is going to face an increasingly vocal and revanchist faction of the new vicarite, that is going to demand greater church action to curb Charisian innovation and power and constantly having to remind the younger whippersnappers that the Church no longer has that sort of power and that that was the excuse used to start the Jihad. It may well end with his assassination. They might even smell blood in the water if Magwair, Duchairn's partner in crime, dies of natural causes.

Fifth, I think that Safehold is going to be inundated with all sorts of books and theater productions from Charis that tell stories that are decidedly cynical of religion and invent sci-fi all over again. Adaptations of Jules Verne's and Edgar Rice Burroughs' novels but with Safeholdian names and places. This will go a long way to getting people to think critically about their religion and the "wonders" of the temple. They will also be the conceptual precursor to many of the future Charisian innovations like zeppelins and submarines. This might also include the "New Tales of Seijin Khody" that includes information from his diary, as a way to prepare Safeholdians for further revelations about the "archangels".